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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Las Vegas Raiders 16 at Cleveland Browns 14. Final.
Raiders -3 no coverU 41 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 15
Las Vegas Raiders 16, Browns 14 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 2nd and 10, on Daniel Carlson — 38.7 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 2nd and 10
Daniel Carlson
Raiders
(:03) 2-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Raiders closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Las Vegas Raiders 16–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Raiders +38.7% win probability on one snap.
38.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Harrison BryantBrownsQ4 3:54(3:54) (Shotgun) 9-N.Mullens pass short left to 88-H.Bryant for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-29-C.Hayward, Defensive Holding, declined.
26.0pts
Zay JonesBrownsQ4 0:35(:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones to CLE 30 for 17 yards (35-J.Moffatt). PENALTY on LV-74-K.Miller, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 47 - No Play.
17.0pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Browns owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Raiders at 2 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.14 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Raiders156 of 169 plays carry both curves
(:03) 2-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Swing −38.7 for BrownsExpected points −0.89 for BrownsModel and market agree here.play 168
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03CLE +39% win prob(:03) 2-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
4th · 3:54CLE +26% win prob(3:54) (Shotgun) 9-N.Mullens pass short left to 88-H.Bryant for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-29-C.Hayward, Defensive Holding, declined.
4th · 0:35LV +17% win prob(:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones to CLE 30 for 17 yards (35-J.Moffatt). PENALTY on LV-74-K.Miller, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 47 - No Play.
4th · 2:59LV +16% win prob(2:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle intended for 7-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Williams at CLE 16. 26-G.Williams to CLE 23 for 7 yards (13-H.Renfrow).
4th · 0:22CLE +15% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 7-Z.Jones to CLE 30 for 15 yards (36-M.Stewart).
4th · 0:29CLE +13% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-F.Moreau pushed ob at CLE 45 for 12 yards (35-J.Moffatt).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Daniel Carlson's 48-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th14:51Daniel Carlson·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+313–7
4th3:54Harrison Bryant·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick Mullens+713–14
4th0:03Daniel Carlson·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.SiegLead never changed again+316–14
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categoryBrowns
Raiders5–4Browns
328Total yards236
5.1Yards per play4.5
52%Success rate34%
46%Third-down rate43%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
1Explosive plays3
19First downs12
2Sacks taken0
2Turnovers0
The read
Raiders ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Browns, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Raiders: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.02Browns: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Raiders: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.08Browns: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Raiders: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.14Browns: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 64 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Browns’s 53 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 2, Browns 2.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CLE's pass rate over expected, −18.3 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −9.8 pts in week 4.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 14.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · −3.0 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Browns5.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.0 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -18.3 pts, 13.6 points below their season mean of -4.7 pts and 2.1 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Daniel Carlson+39% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 2-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q4 0:03 · Raiders · 2nd & 10 at CLE 30 · gained nothing · +0.89 EP · +38.6% win probability
154 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 80 yards from the CLE 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
40%
Yards
564
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.1068%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR31-0.1161%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.2347%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-1.1950%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders0 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Browns 47
Raiders6Browns0
Raiders7Browns0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Raiders 42 to the Browns 2
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 45
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 9 to the Browns 45
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Browns 42
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 14 to the Raiders 43
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 8 to the Browns 16
Raiders10Browns0
Field goal17 plays, from the Raiders 39 to the Browns 5
No good13 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Raiders 29
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 28
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Browns 38
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Browns 47
Raiders10Browns6
Raiders10Browns7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 47 to the Raiders 4
The period ended11 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Browns 21
4th quarter49 plays
Raiders13Browns7
Field goal2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 26
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Raiders 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw7.5 seconds
Raiders13Browns13
Raiders13Browns14
Touchdown16 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Raiders 6
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 38
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Raiders16Browns14
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Browns 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
