2021 Week 15 · Mon, Dec 20, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

Cleveland Browns

LV -3 no coverU 41 ✓Raiders closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Las Vegas Raiders 16–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, CLE +39% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:03LV — CLE LV ball · 2nd & 10LV 61%

(:03) 2-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:03CLE +39% win prob(:03) 2-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q4 · 3:54CLE +26% win prob(3:54) (Shotgun) 9-N.Mullens pass short left to 88-H.Bryant for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-29-C.Hayward, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q4 · 0:35LV +17% win prob(:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones to CLE 30 for 17 yards (35-J.Moffatt). PENALTY on LV-74-K.Miller, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 47 - No Play.
Q4 · 2:59LV +16% win prob(2:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle intended for 7-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Williams at CLE 16. 26-G.Williams to CLE 23 for 7 yards (13-H.Renfrow).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Browns
Offensive plays	64	53
Total yards	328 (edge)	236
Yards per play	5.1 (edge)	4.5
Expected points added / play	-0.01 (edge)	-0.02
Success rate	52% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	63%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.14
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	6/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	3 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

25/38, 236 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.5 expected points added · +2.3% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Nick MullensQB

20/30, 147 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.2 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

23 att, 91 yds, 1 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

15 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Zay JonesWR

6/9 for 67 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 0.6 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Foster MoreauTE

7/9 for 65 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 27	8	16	4:07	Punt
2	LV	LV 42	12	78	7:12	Touchdown
3	CLE	CLE 25	7	20	2:55	Punt
4	LV	LV 4	6	10	3:09	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 34	4	8	2:05	Punt
6	LV	LV 14	6	29	2:43	Punt
7	CLE	CLE 8	4	8	1:35	Punt
8	LV	LV 39	13	61	5:18	Turnover on downs
9	CLE	CLE 25	10	32	0:56	Turnover on downs
10	LV	LV 25	5	3	0:50	Punt
11	CLE	CLE 31	4	7	2:08	Punt
12	LV	LV 25	7	22	4:49	Fumble
13	CLE	LV 47	7	47	2:40	Touchdown
14	LV	LV 27	11	52	4:47	Turnover on downs
15	CLE	CLE 25	5	1	0:51	Punt
16	LV	LV 31	4	9	1:48	Punt
17	CLE	CLE 20	15	90	8:22	Touchdown
18	LV	LV 25	4	13	0:58	Interception
19	CLE	CLE 23	4	7	0:57	Punt
20	LV	LV 29	8	51	1:50	Turnover on downs

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 90 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	25/38	236	1	1	2	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Jacobs	15	52	3.5	-0.2
Peyton Barber	5	34	6.8	0.9
Derek Carr	3	7	2.3	-2.4
Marcus Mariota	1	3	3.0	0.0
Dallin Leavitt	1	2	2.0	2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Jones	6	9	67	0	25%	0.6
Foster Moreau	7	9	65	0	25%	1.3
Josh Jacobs	3	4	42	0	11%	3.5
Hunter Renfrow	3	5	32	0	14%	0.9
Peyton Barber	1	1	12	0	3%	1.2
DeSean Jackson	1	3	11	0	8%	-1.3
Bryan Edwards	3	4	8	1	11%	0.7
Daniel Helm	1	1	-1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
K.J. Wright	3	4	0
Johnathan Abram	4	3	0
Marquel Lee	3	2	0
Divine Deablo	2	2	0
Johnathan Hankins	1	3	0
Trevon Moehrig	3	1	0
Brandon Facyson	3	0	3
Maxx Crosby	3	0	0
Keisean Nixon	2	1	0
Clelin Ferrell	2	1	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	20/30	147	1	0	0	2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	23	91	4.0	1	-2.1
D'Ernest Johnson	1	-2	-2.0	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Donovan Peoples-Jones	4	8	48	0	28%	1.3
David Njoku	3	5	29	0	17%	-0.4
Rashard Higgins	3	5	24	0	17%	0.9
D'Ernest Johnson	4	4	17	0	14%	-2.5
Demetric Felton	3	4	16	0	14%	-1.7
Harrison Bryant	2	2	11	1	7%	5.2
Nick Chubb	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
M.J. Stewart	7	3	0.0	1
Jovante Moffatt	4	4	0.0	0
Sione Takitaki	3	3	0.0	0
John Johnson	0	5	0.0	1
Jordan Elliott	1	4	0.0	0
Sheldon Day	3	2	0.5	0
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	2	2	0.5	0
Myles Garrett	3	0	0.0	0
Denzel Ward	3	0	0.0	0
Malcolm Smith	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LV -3
Closing total: 41
LV moneyline: -147
CLE moneyline: +131

Raiders closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41; the game landed 30 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 40°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: LV 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Rich Bisaccia vs Kevin Stefanski