2021 Week 15 · Mon, Dec 20, 2021 · Soldier Field

Minnesota VikingsWinner

Chicago Bears

MIN -7 ✓U 48 ✓Vikings closed -7 and covered, winning by 8.

Minnesota Vikings 17–9. Biggest swing: Q2 0:59, MIN +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:59MIN — CHI MIN ball · 3rd & 8MIN 86%

(:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bush at CHI 34. 26-D.Bush to MIN 39 for 27 yards (72-E.Cleveland).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:59MIN +7% win prob(:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bush at CHI 34. 26-D.Bush to MIN 39 for 27 yards (72-E.Cleveland).
Q1 · 8:20CHI +6% win prob(8:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to CHI 34 for 18 yards (23-M.Christian; 37-T.Tabor).
Q2 · 9:09MIN +6% win prob(9:09) 32-D.Montgomery right end to MIN 12 for -2 yards (90-S.Richardson). Penalty on CHI-83-D.Newsome, Offensive Offside, declined. Minnesota challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 32-D.Montgomery right end to MIN 12 for -2 yards (90-S.Richardson). FUMBLES (90-S.Richardson), RECOVERED by MIN-90-S.Richardson at MIN 12. Penalty on CHI-83-D.Newsome, Offensive Offside, declined.
Q2 · 0:33MIN +5% win prob(:33) 2-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-D.Tomlinson), Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Bears
Offensive plays	60	69
Total yards	193	370 (edge)
Yards per play	3.2	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.10 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	35%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	48%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	0.01 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.51
Third downs	5/17 (edge)	2/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Bears outgained Vikings 370–193 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

26/39, 285 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-3.0 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

12/24, 87 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-6.7 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

28 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

18 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

-7.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Cole KmetTE

6/9 for 71 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · -0.9 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Darnell MooneyWR

5/7 for 63 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 0.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 22	8	20	3:34	Punt
2	CHI	CHI 16	4	13	1:46	Punt
3	MIN	MIN 46	9	54	4:37	Touchdown
4	CHI	CHI 25	6	28	2:26	Fumble
5	MIN	MIN 47	8	7	4:09	Turnover on downs
6	CHI	CHI 30	9	53	4:24	Fumble
7	MIN	MIN 12	4	3	1:36	Punt
8	CHI	CHI 35	12	53	5:55	Turnover on downs
9	MIN	MIN 32	4	2	0:47	Interception
10	CHI	MIN 39	4	8	0:18	Turnover on downs
11	MIN	MIN 39	4	7	0:28	Turnover on downs
12	CHI	CHI 26	7	9	3:28	Punt
13	MIN	MIN 23	13	57	5:41	Touchdown
14	CHI	CHI 25	5	13	1:49	Punt
15	MIN	MIN 4	4	9	1:37	Punt
16	CHI	MIN 30	4	7	1:31	Turnover on downs
17	MIN	MIN 23	4	1	1:12	Punt
18	MIN	CHI 37	4	1	2:21	Punt
19	CHI	CHI 10	11	59	3:51	Turnover on downs
20	MIN	MIN 9	4	8	2:20	Punt
21	CHI	CHI 44	8	42	1:55	Turnover on downs
22	MIN	MIN 15	7	24	2:23	Punt
23	CHI	CHI 20	9	85	1:52	Touchdown

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 85 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	12/24	87	2	1	4	-6.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dalvin Cook	28	89	3.2	-0.5
Kene Nwangwu	3	33	11.0	1.9
Kirk Cousins	2	10	5.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	4	10	47	1	45%	1.0
K.J. Osborn	3	3	21	0	14%	1.6
Tyler Conklin	1	3	7	0	14%	-2.3
Ihmir Smith-Marsette	1	2	7	1	9%	1.3
C.J. Ham	1	1	3	0	5%	-0.4
Dalvin Cook	2	3	2	0	14%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cameron Dantzler	6	1	0.0	0
D.J. Wonnum	6	1	3.0	0
Harrison Smith	6	1	0.0	0
Eric Kendricks	4	3	0.0	0
Patrick Peterson	5	1	0.0	1
Nick Vigil	3	2	0.0	0
Anthony Barr	2	3	0.0	0
Mackensie Alexander	2	2	0.0	0
Michael Pierce	1	2	0.0	0
Xavier Woods	3	0	0.0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	26/39	285	1	0	3	-3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Montgomery	18	60	3.3	-7.4
Justin Fields	7	35	5.0	-0.9
Jakeem Grant	2	17	8.5	0.3
Darnell Mooney	1	3	3.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cole Kmet	6	9	71	0	25%	-0.9
Darnell Mooney	5	7	63	0	19%	0.9
Damiere Byrd	5	6	62	0	17%	1.0
Khalil Herbert	3	4	34	0	11%	1.0
David Montgomery	5	6	23	0	17%	1.5
Jesper Horsted	1	1	19	1	3%	4.9
Jimmy Graham	1	2	13	0	6%	0.2
Dazz Newsome	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	2	7	0.0	0	0
Alec Ogletree	6	2	0.0	0	0
Thomas Graham Jr.	2	5	0.0	0	3
Teez Tabor	4	2	0.0	0	0
Akiem Hicks	4	1	2.0	0	0
Deon Bush	3	1	0.0	1	1
Kindle Vildor	3	1	0.0	0	0
Robert Quinn	2	2	2.0	0	0
Bruce Irvin	1	3	0.0	0	0
Angelo Blackson	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -7
Closing total: 48
MIN moneyline: -320
CHI moneyline: +274

Vikings closed -7 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 48; the game landed 26 — under by 22.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 37°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: MIN 11 days · CHI 8 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Matt Nagy

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.