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Minnesota Vikings 17, Bears 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:59, 3rd and 8, on Deon Bush — 7.0 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:59 · 3rd and 8
Deon Bush
Bears
(:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bush at CHI 34. 26-D.Bush to MIN 39 for 27 yards (72-E.Cleveland).
Vikings closed -7 and covered, winning by 8.
Minnesota Vikings 17–9. Biggest swing: Q2 0:59, Bears +7.0% win probability on one snap.
7.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin JeffersonVikingsQ1 8:20(8:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to CHI 34 for 18 yards (23-M.Christian; 37-T.Tabor).
6.3pts
David MontgomeryVikingsQ2 9:09(9:09) 32-D.Montgomery right end to MIN 12 for -2 yards (90-S.Richardson). Penalty on CHI-83-D.Newsome, Offensive Offside, declined. Minnesota challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 32-D.Montgomery right end to MIN 12 for -2 yards (90-S.Richardson). FUMBLES (90-S.Richardson), RECOVERED by MIN-90-S.Richardson at MIN 12. Penalty on CHI-83-D.Newsome, Offensive Offside, declined.
5.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.51 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Bears at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bears at 2 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Vikings163 of 175 plays carry both curves
(:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bush at CHI 34. 26-D.Bush to MIN 39 for 27 yards (72-E.Cleveland).
Swing +7.0 for BearsExpected points +2.14 for BearsThe model had Bears 17 points higher than the market did.play 74
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:59MIN +7% win prob(:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bush at CHI 34. 26-D.Bush to MIN 39 for 27 yards (72-E.Cleveland).
1st · 8:20CHI +6% win prob(8:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to CHI 34 for 18 yards (23-M.Christian; 37-T.Tabor).
2nd · 9:09MIN +6% win prob(9:09) 32-D.Montgomery right end to MIN 12 for -2 yards (90-S.Richardson). Penalty on CHI-83-D.Newsome, Offensive Offside, declined. Minnesota challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 32-D.Montgomery right end to MIN 12 for -2 yards (90-S.Richardson). FUMBLES (90-S.Richardson), RECOVERED by MIN-90-S.Richardson at MIN 12. Penalty on CHI-83-D.Newsome, Offensive Offside, declined.
2nd · 0:33MIN +5% win prob(:33) 2-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-D.Tomlinson), Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
2nd · 2:19CHI +4% win prob(2:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 32-D.Montgomery to MIN 13 for 12 yards (59-N.Vigil).
1st · 2:44
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Jefferson's 12-yard touchdown catch with 5:09 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Bears ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — first downs.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Vikings: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.16Bears: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Vikings: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.01Bears: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Vikings: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.51Bears: −0.51 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 60 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Bears’s 69 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 3, Bears 5.
NoteBears outgained Vikings 370-193 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's early-down pass rate, 33.3%, is past their previous low of 40.4% in week 14 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
2.0 times their own weekly swing below their number.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Bears24.1%
inside their normal wobble · +8.6 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 19.9 points below their season mean of 53.2% and 2.0 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Montgomery right−13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(9:09) 32-D.Montgomery right end to MIN 12 for -2 yards (90-S.Richardson). Penalty on CHI-83-D.Newsome, Offensive Offside, declined. Minnesota challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 32-D.Montgomery right end to MIN 12 for -2 yards (90-S.Richardson). FUMBLES (90-S.Richardson), RECOVERED by MIN-90-S.Richardson at MIN 12. Penalty on CHI-83-D.Newsome, Offensive Offside, declined.
Q2 9:09 · Bears · 2nd & 7 at MIN 10 · lost 2 · -4.53 EP · −12.9% win probability
161 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 81 yards from the CHI 10 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
39%
Yards
563
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.0560%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25-0.1976%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.9155%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10+0.0020%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.2138%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.2667%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 42
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Bears 21
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Vikings6Bears0
Vikings7Bears0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 46 to the Bears 12
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Vikings 46
The period ended6 plays, from the Vikings 47 to the Bears 26
2nd quarter49 plays
Vikings10Bears0
Field goal5 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Vikings 10
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Vikings 16
Vikings10Bears3
Field goal16 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Vikings 13
Intercepted4 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Vikings 41
No good5 plays, from the Vikings 39 to the Vikings 31
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Vikings 39 to the Vikings 46
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Bears 41
Vikings16Bears3
Vikings17Bears3
Touchdown13 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Bears 7
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 26
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 4 to the Vikings 13
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 21
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter55 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Bears 31
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Bears 10 to the Vikings 7
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 9 to the Vikings 14
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bears 44 to the Vikings 14
Punt10 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Vikings 39
Vikings17Bears9
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Vikings 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -7
Closing total
48
Vikings moneyline
-320
Bears moneyline
+274
Vikings closed -7 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 48; the game landed 26 — under by 22.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 34°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the west; overcast.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Vikings 11 days · Bears 8 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Matt Nagy
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
MIN +3% win prob
(2:44) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields right end to MIN 46 for 1 yard (27-C.Dantzler). FUMBLES (27-C.Dantzler), RECOVERED by MIN-55-A.Barr at MIN 47. 55-A.Barr to MIN 47 for no gain (11-D.Mooney).
3rd · 13:12MIN +3% win prob(13:12) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 26 for -14 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
2nd · 1:21MIN +3% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 34 for -7 yards (94-R.Quinn). FUMBLES (94-R.Quinn), recovered by MIN-71-C.Darrisaw at MIN 34.
