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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Patriots152 of 162 plays carry both curves
(:21) 7-J.Bailey punt is BLOCKED by 49-M.Adams, Center-49-J.Cardona, RECOVERED by IND-45-E.Speed at NE -8. TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +12.1 for ColtsExpected points +5.80 for ColtsThe model had Colts 8 points higher than the market did.play 33
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 0:21NE +12% win prob(:21) 7-J.Bailey punt is BLOCKED by 49-M.Adams, Center-49-J.Cardona, RECOVERED by IND-45-E.Speed at NE -8. TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:25IND +11% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:11IND +10% win prob(2:11) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:50IND +8% win prob(2:50) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 1-N.Harry to IND 15 for 43 yards (34-I.Rodgers). PENALTY on IND-97-A.Muhammad, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced at IND 15.
4th · 13:31NE +8% win prob(13:31) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 14-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty (58-J.Collins) at NE 47. 32-D.McCourty to NE 47 for no gain.
1st · 8:51IND +6% win prob(8:51) 16-A.Dulin left end pushed ob at NE 41 for 37 yards (32-D.McCourty).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nyheim Miller-Hines's 8-yard touchdown catch with 4:00 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Patriots ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Patriots: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.00Colts: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.00Patriots: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.48Colts: −0.48 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.30Patriots: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.19Colts: +0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 65 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Colts’s 50 at 28%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Colts 4.
NotePatriots outgained Colts 365-277 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's early-down pass rate, 29.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 3.6 points clear of the next team along.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.9 points.
low through week 15Against their seasonOver Expected
IND's pass rate over expected, −17.8 pts, is past their previous low of −14.1 pts in week 13 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
high through week 15Against their seasonFourth Down
NE's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 40.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 15.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 31.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 14 dropbacks
Colts10.6%
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -17.8 pts, 13.2 points below their season mean of -4.6 pts and 1.6 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Taylor left+13% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:11) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:11 · Colts · 2nd & 8 at IND 33 · gained 67 · +6.45 EP · +12.8% win probability
150 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 82 yards from the NE 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
39%
Yards
640
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.0880%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16-0.5038%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.1821%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.1973%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+1.280%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.3443%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.7533%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Colts 33
Punt10 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Colts 47
Patriots0Colts6
Patriots0Colts7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Patriots 8
Patriots0Colts13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 35
Patriots0Colts14
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter32 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Patriots 33
Patriots0Colts17
Field goal15 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Patriots 7
Intercepted10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Colts 13
The period ended4 plays, from the Colts 3 to the Colts 19
3rd quarter36 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 34
Patriots0Colts20
Field goal5 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 47
No good8 plays, from the Patriots 47 to the Patriots 29
The period ended10 plays, from the Patriots 39 to the Colts 12
4th quarter57 plays
Patriots6Colts20
Patriots7Colts20
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 46
Patriots10Colts20
Field goal13 plays, from the Patriots 47 to the Colts 2
Punt13 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Colts 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Patriots16Colts20
Patriots17Colts20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 18 to the Colts 7
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Patriots17Colts26
Patriots17Colts27
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 31 to the Colts 33
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to midfield
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -1
Closing total
46
Patriots moneyline
-102
Colts moneyline
-109
Patriots closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 44 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Not on file for this game.
Rest
Patriots 13 days · Colts 14 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Frank Reich
1st · 14:09
NE +6% win prob
(14:09) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right to 11-M.Pittman.
3rd · 13:49NE +6% win prob(13:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 25-B.Bolden INTERCEPTED by 58-B.Okereke at NE 36. 58-B.Okereke to NE 20 for 16 yards (25-B.Bolden).
