2021 Week 15 · Sat, Dec 18, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium

New England Patriots

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

NE -1 upsetU 46 ✓DomePatriots closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Indianapolis Colts 27–17. Biggest swing: Q1 0:21, NE +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 0:21NE — IND NE ball · 4th & 9IND 66%

(:21) 7-J.Bailey punt is BLOCKED by 49-M.Adams, Center-49-J.Cardona, RECOVERED by IND-45-E.Speed at NE -8. TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 0:21NE +12% win prob(:21) 7-J.Bailey punt is BLOCKED by 49-M.Adams, Center-49-J.Cardona, RECOVERED by IND-45-E.Speed at NE -8. TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:25IND +11% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:11IND +10% win prob(2:11) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:50IND +8% win prob(2:50) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 1-N.Harry to IND 15 for 43 yards (34-I.Rodgers). PENALTY on IND-97-A.Muhammad, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced at IND 15.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Colts
Offensive plays	65	50
Total yards	365 (edge)	277
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	-0.08	0.00 (edge)
Success rate	43% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	72%	28%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.00 (edge)	-0.48
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.30	0.19 (edge)
Third downs	6/15 (edge)	2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Patriots outgained Colts 365–277 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

26/45, 299 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-0.8 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Carson WentzQB

5/12, 57 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-7.9 expected points added · -25.5% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

29 att, 170 yds, 1 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

10 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Hunter HenryTE

6/8 for 77 yds, 2 TD

18% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Receiving · NE

N'Keal HarryTE

2/5 for 52 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 26	5	7	1:07	Punt
2	NE	NE 22	8	20	5:02	Punt
3	IND	IND 22	9	78	4:58	Touchdown
4	NE	NE 20	8	12	3:39	Defensive touchdown
5	NE	NE 25	5	6	1:46	Punt
6	IND	IND 35	14	58	8:57	Turnover on downs
7	NE	NE 25	8	65	2:48	Interception
8	IND	IND 3	3	17	1:43	End of half
9	NE	NE 25	4	9	1:22	Interception
10	IND	NE 20	4	-8	1:49	Turnover on downs
11	NE	NE 25	7	27	3:37	Turnover on downs
12	IND	NE 47	8	16	3:39	Turnover on downs
13	NE	NE 39	10	76	4:38	Touchdown
14	IND	IND 25	4	21	1:30	Interception
15	NE	NE 47	12	51	4:28	Turnover on downs
16	IND	IND 22	10	19	5:09	Punt
17	NE	NE 18	8	74	1:27	Touchdown
18	IND	IND 31	4	69	0:20	Touchdown
19	NE	NE 25	7	25	0:51	Turnover on downs
20	IND	50	2	0	1:10	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 78 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	26/45	299	2	2	1	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	10	36	3.6	-2.3
Kendrick Bourne	2	19	9.5	0.9
Mac Jones	1	12	12.0	0.8
Jakobi Meyers	1	9	9.0	0.9
Brandon Bolden	4	3	0.8	-3.7
Jonnu Smith	1	2	2.0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Hunter Henry	6	8	77	2	18%	4.6
N'Keal Harry	2	5	52	0	11%	2.5
Kendrick Bourne	3	3	44	0	7%	2.6
Jakobi Meyers	6	12	44	0	27%	1.5
Brandon Bolden	3	5	41	0	11%	-2.6
Nelson Agholor	4	6	34	0	14%	-3.1
Rhamondre Stevenson	1	1	4	0	2%	-0.0
Jonnu Smith	1	3	3	0	7%	-1.6
Gunner Olszewski	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kyle Van Noy	3	3	0.0	0	0
Davon Godchaux	4	1	0.0	0	0
Kyle Dugger	2	3	0.0	0	0
Adrian Phillips	2	3	0.0	0	0
Matt Judon	2	2	0.0	0	0
Dont'a Hightower	1	3	0.0	0	0
Devin McCourty	3	1	0.0	1	1
Jamie Collins	1	3	0.0	0	2
J.C. Jackson	0	3	0.0	0	3
Deatrich Wise	2	0	1.0	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	5/12	57	1	1	1	-7.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	29	170	5.9	1	0.8
Ashton Dulin	2	39	19.5	0	1.7
Carson Wentz	8	17	2.1	0	3.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zach Pascal	1	2	23	0	17%	-3.7
T.Y. Hilton	1	1	19	0	8%	1.8
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	2	8	1	17%	0.9
Michael Pittman	1	5	7	0	42%	-3.4
Jack Doyle	1	1	0	0	8%	-0.4
Mo Alie-Cox	0	1	0	0	8%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaquille Leonard	7	2	0.0	1	1
Khari Willis	5	4	0.0	0	0
Kenny Moore	5	1	0.0	0	2
Isaiah Rodgers	4	0	0.0	0	0
Andrew Sendejo	4	0	0.0	0	1
DeForest Buckner	2	1	1.0	0	0
Isaac Rochell	1	1	0.0	0	0
Grover Stewart	1	1	0.0	0	0
E.J. Speed	1	1	0.0	0	0
Bobby Okereke	2	0	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -1
Closing total: 46
NE moneyline: -102
IND moneyline: -109

Patriots closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 44 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: —
Rest: NE 13 days · IND 14 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Frank Reich