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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 15 · Sat, Dec 18, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 15
It turned at Q1 0:21, 4th and 9 — 12.1 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Indianapolis Colts 27–17. Biggest swing: Q1 0:21, Colts +12.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:21 · 4th and 9
Unnamed on the sheet
Colts
(:21) 7-J.Bailey punt is BLOCKED by 49-M.Adams, Center-49-J.Cardona, RECOVERED by IND-45-E.Speed at NE -8. TOUCHDOWN.
12.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Colts won this one — +0.19 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — +0.00 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.48 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 15 on third down, against Colts at 2 of 10 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Colts at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
(:21) 7-J.Bailey punt is BLOCKED by 49-M.Adams, Center-49-J.Cardona, RECOVERED by IND-45-E.Speed at NE -8. TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Nyheim Miller-Hines's 8-yard touchdown catch with 4:00 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Nyheim Miller-Hines8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Carson WentzLead never changed again+70–78 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryColts
Patriots ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 65 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Colts’s 50 at 28%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Colts 4.
Patriots outgained Colts 365-277 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's early-down pass rate, 29.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 3.6 points clear of the next team along.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.9 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
IND's pass rate over expected, −17.8 pts, is past their previous low of −14.1 pts in week 13 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
NE's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 40.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 15.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 31.1 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-2.9 ptsright on their number · +3.2 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 65 snaps
Colts-17.8 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −13.2 vs their -4.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.58× that swing) · 50 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 96%
Tendencies room →Patriots66.0%inside their normal wobble · +15.8 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±17.8 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 47 early downs
Colts29.7%leaned — ran early · −21.3 vs their 51.0%, and they swing ±14.9 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 37 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -50% to 123%
Fourth Down room →Patriots66.7%leaned — went for it · +36.7 vs their 30.0%, and they swing ±31.1 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Colts60.0%right on their number · +8.3 vs their 51.7%, and they swing ±27.1 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →Patriots7.1%inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 14 dropbacks
Colts10.6%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
IND's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -17.8 pts, 13.2 points below their season mean of -4.6 pts and 1.6 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
26/45, 299 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-0.8 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected
Passing · IND
5/12, 57 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-7.9 expected points added · -25.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Hunter Henry banked 8.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter HenryTE · Featured Receiver | 25.7 | +8.4 | 81% | 89% | 18% | 16% | 6/8, 77 yd, 2 TD |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 23.0 | +7.6 | 98% | 86% | 0% | — | 29 car, 170 yd, 1 TD |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 17.2 | −6.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/45, 299 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 12 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.3 | −11.2 | 94% | 94% | 27% | 26% | 1 car, 9 yd · 6/12, 44 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | +2.3 | 71% | 74% | 7% | 9% | 2 car, 19 yd · 3/3, 44 yd |
| Nyheim Miller-HinesRB · Receiving Back | 7.8 | +3.9 | 19% | 36% | 17% | 0% | 1/2, 8 yd, 1 TD |
| Brandon BoldenRB · Receiving Back | 7.4 | −3.5 | 56% | 68% | 11% | 1% | 4 car, 3 yd · 3/5, 41 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | −1.7 | 47% | 38% | 14% | 18% | 4/6, 34 yd |
| N'Keal HarryTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | −2.8 | 53% | 57% | 11% | 18% | 2/5, 52 yd |
| Carson WentzQB · Starter QB | 6.0 | −3.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 5/12, 57 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 8 car, 17 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 5.0 | −0.9 | 46% | 32% | 2% | 0% | 10 car, 36 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +2.6 | 54% | 21% | 0% | — | 2 car, 39 yd |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −0.6 | 65% | 79% | 17% | 25% | 1/2, 23 yd |
| T.Y. HiltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +1.4 | 27% | 50% | 8% | 4% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 1.7 | −7.3 | 54% | 71% | 42% | 65% | 1/5, 7 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −5.3 | 25% | 11% | 7% | 9% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/3, 3 yd |
| Jack DoyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −0.5 | 79% | 57% | 8% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.7 | 77% | 64% | 8% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jakob JohnsonRB | 0.0 | — | 15% | 15% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:11) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:11 · Colts · 2nd & 8 at IND 33 · gained 67 · +6.45 EP · +12.8% win probability
150 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 82 yards from the NE 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots0
Colts6Patriots0Colts7Patriots0Colts13Patriots0Colts14Patriots0Colts17Patriots0Colts20Patriots6Colts20Patriots7Colts20Patriots10Colts20Patriots16Colts20Patriots17Colts20Patriots17Colts26Patriots17Colts27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 26/45 | 299 | 2 | 2 | 1 | −0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Mac Jones |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 6 | 8 | 77 | 2 | 18% | +4.6 |
| N'Keal Harry | 2 | 5 | 52 | 0 | 11% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Van Noy | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Godchaux | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 5/12 | 57 | 1 | 1 | 1 | −7.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_15_NE_IND
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 44 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 12 |
| 12.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.8 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| +2.5 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 7% | +2.6 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 12 | 44 | 0 | 27% | +1.5 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 11% | −2.6 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 14% | −3.1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2% | −0.0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7% | −1.6 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −1.9 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Adrian Phillips | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Judon | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dont'a Hightower | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin McCourty | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jamie Collins | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| J.C. Jackson | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Deatrich Wise | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 29 | 170 | 5.9 | 1 | +0.8 |
| Ashton Dulin | 2 | 39 | 19.5 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Carson Wentz | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 | +3.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 17% | −3.7 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 8% | +1.8 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 17% | +0.9 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 42% | −3.4 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −0.4 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaquille Leonard | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Khari Willis | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Isaiah Rodgers | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Sendejo | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| DeForest Buckner | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Rochell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grover Stewart | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| E.J. Speed | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
