2021 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 19, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TB -11.5 upsetU 45.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -11.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New Orleans Saints 9–0. Biggest swing: Q3 1:13, NO +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 1:13NO — TB TB ball · 3rd & 7TB 54%

(1:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady scrambles up the middle to NO 22 for 2 yards (94-C.Jordan). FUMBLES (94-C.Jordan), RECOVERED by NO-23-M.Lattimore at NO 13. 23-M.Lattimore to NO 14 for 1 yard (10-S.Miller).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 1:13NO +14% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady scrambles up the middle to NO 22 for 2 yards (94-C.Jordan). FUMBLES (94-C.Jordan), RECOVERED by NO-23-M.Lattimore at NO 13. 23-M.Lattimore to NO 14 for 1 yard (10-S.Miller).
Q3 · 5:59NO +12% win prob(5:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski.
Q3 · 12:16NO +11% win prob(12:16) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to NO 28, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-E.Winston to NO 32 for 4 yards (97-Z.Triner).
Q3 · 2:40TB +11% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski to NO 27 for 10 yards (26-P.Williams).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	60	73
Total yards	212	302 (edge)
Yards per play	3.5	4.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.29 (edge)	-0.30
Success rate	33%	36% (edge)
Dropback rate	50%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14 (edge)	-0.38
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.44	-0.09 (edge)
Third downs	3/16	6/19 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Buccaneers outgained Saints 302–212 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

26/48, 214 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-16.4 expected points added · -14.4% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Taysom HillTE

13/27, 154 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-3.7 expected points added · -13.0% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Ronald JonesRB

8 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

9 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Marquez CallawayWR

6/9 for 112 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

6/7 for 49 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	7	15	2:15	Punt
2	TB	TB 21	7	20	2:39	Punt
3	NO	NO 19	9	60	4:22	Turnover on downs
4	TB	TB 17	7	21	1:56	Punt
5	NO	NO 43	8	55	3:53	Turnover on downs
6	TB	TB 25	7	17	2:23	Punt
7	NO	NO 10	4	0	1:29	Punt
8	TB	TB 43	10	30	4:42	Turnover on downs
9	NO	NO 35	6	17	2:44	Punt
10	TB	TB 18	10	36	2:59	Punt
11	NO	NO 1	2	12	0:38	End of half
12	TB	TB 11	7	22	2:52	Punt
13	NO	NO 32	4	2	1:26	Punt
14	TB	TB 22	4	8	1:37	Punt
15	NO	NO 18	4	-2	1:00	Punt
16	TB	TB 39	5	25	2:10	Turnover on downs
17	NO	NO 37	4	6	1:28	Punt
18	TB	TB 19	8	59	3:24	Fumble
19	NO	NO 14	4	8	1:47	Punt
20	TB	TB 32	4	9	2:15	Punt
21	NO	NO 34	10	42	4:33	Turnover on downs
22	TB	TB 25	5	-10	0:53	Punt
23	NO	NO 46	4	2	1:36	Punt
24	TB	TB 3	8	24	1:19	Interception
25	NO	TB 42	7	-5	2:34	Punt
26	TB	TB 9	4	41	1:06	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 60 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taysom Hill	13/27	154	0	0	2	-3.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Taysom Hill	11	33	3.0	-5.0
Alvin Kamara	11	18	1.6	-3.3
Mark Ingram	9	10	1.1	-5.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Marquez Callaway	6	9	112	36%	7.5
Tre'Quan Smith	2	3	17	12%	-0.8
Alvin Kamara	2	6	13	24%	-3.5
Mark Ingram	2	2	8	8%	1.0
Adam Trautman	1	2	4	8%	-1.7
Ty Montgomery	0	2	0	8%	-2.1
Nick Vannett	0	1	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	6	1	0.0	1	1
Demario Davis	3	4	0.0	0	1
David Onyemata	2	4	1.0	0	0
Andrew Dowell	4	1	0.0	0	0
Cameron Jordan	5	0	2.0	0	0
Marshon Lattimore	4	0	0.0	0	2
Marcus Williams	4	0	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	2	2	0.0	0	0
P.J. Williams	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jalyn Holmes	2	1	0.0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	26/48	214	0	1	4	-16.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ronald Jones	8	63	7.9	1.0
Leonard Fournette	9	34	3.8	-0.5
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	3	19	6.3	-2.3
Tom Brady	1	2	2.0	-3.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	6	7	49	15%	1.3
Tyler Johnson	4	7	41	15%	-1.0
Leonard Fournette	7	7	33	15%	1.1
Rob Gronkowski	2	11	29	23%	-5.7
Cameron Brate	2	4	22	8%	0.2
Scott Miller	2	3	18	6%	-2.1
Mike Evans	1	1	14	2%	1.7
Ronald Jones	2	2	8	4%	0.2
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	0	2	0	4%	-1.3
O.J. Howard	0	1	0	2%	-0.5
Jaelon Darden	0	3	0	6%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Lavonte David	7	3	1.0	0
Jordan Whitehead	5	3	0.0	0
Devin White	3	4	0.0	0
William Gholston	5	1	0.0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	3	2	0.0	0
Andrew Adams	3	1	0.0	1
Joe Tryon	2	2	1.0	0
Zach Triner	2	0	0.0	0
Carlton Davis	2	0	0.0	1
Ndamukong Suh	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -11.5
Closing total: 45.5
NO moneyline: +417
TB moneyline: -518

Buccaneers closed -11.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 9 — under by 36.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 75°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: NO 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Bruce Arians

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.