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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 19, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 15
It turned at Q3 1:13, 3rd and 7, on Tom Brady — 14.5 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 1:13 · 3rd and 7
Tom Brady
Saints
(1:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady scrambles up the middle to NO 22 for 2 yards (94-C.Jordan). FUMBLES (94-C.Jordan), RECOVERED by NO-23-M.Lattimore at NO 13. 23-M.Lattimore to NO 14 for 1 yard (10-S.Miller).
New Orleans Saints 9–0. Biggest swing: Q3 1:13, Saints +14.5% win probability on one snap.
14.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 2 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — -0.09 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.44 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 19 on third down, against Saints at 3 of 16 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 4 chunk plays, against Saints at 2 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 19.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(1:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady scrambles up the middle to NO 22 for 2 yards (94-C.Jordan). FUMBLES (94-C.Jordan), RECOVERED by NO-23-M.Lattimore at NO 13. 23-M.Lattimore to NO 14 for 1 yard (10-S.Miller).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Brett Maher's 39-yard field goal with 5:49 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Brett Maher39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+33–03 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Buccaneers ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 60 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 73 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Saints 2, Buccaneers 0.
Buccaneers outgained Saints 302-212 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-3.5 ptsright on their number · +2.8 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 60 snaps
Buccaneers0.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.9 vs their 8.1 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 73 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 91%
Tendencies room →Saints38.6%leaned — ran early · −11.7 vs their 50.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 44 early downs
Buccaneers64.2%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 64.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26% to 92%
Fourth Down room →Saints0.0%leaned — took the kick · −32.8 vs their 32.8%, and they swing ±23.2 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers20.0%inside their normal wobble · −10.7 vs their 30.7%, and they swing ±20.6 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 34%
Tendencies room →Saints13.2%inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Buccaneers10.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.1 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NO's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 32.8 points below their season mean of 32.8% and 1.4 times their own 23.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
26/48, 214 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-16.4 expected points added · -14.4% completion over expected
Passing · NO
13/27, 154 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-3.7 expected points added · -13.0% completion over expected
Receiving · NO
6/9 for 112 yds, 0 TD
36% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Marquez Callaway banked 3.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez CallawayWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.2 | +3.5 | 85% | 83% | 36% | 39% | 6/9, 112 yd |
| Leonard FournetteRB · Committee Back | 13.7 | −0.8 | 45% | 45% | 15% | 0% | 9 car, 34 yd · 7/7, 33 yd |
| Chris GodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.9 | +0.1 | 22% | 28% | 15% | 13% | 6/7, 49 yd |
| Taysom HillQB · Starter QB | 9.5 | −7.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/27, 154 yd · 11 car, 33 yd |
| Ronald JonesRB | 9.1 | +1.8 | 30% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 8 car, 63 yd · 2/2, 8 yd |
| Tyler JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | −1.6 | 95% | 92% | 15% | 9% | 4/7, 41 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 5.1 | −9.0 | 61% | 57% | 24% | 14% | 11 car, 18 yd · 2/6, 13 yd |
| Rob GronkowskiTE · Featured Receiver | 4.9 | −13.6 | 85% | 85% | 23% | 31% | 2/11, 29 yd |
| Tom BradyQB · Starter QB | 4.8 | −11.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/48, 214 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Cameron BrateTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −2.6 | 27% | 25% | 8% | 10% | 2/4, 22 yd |
| Mark IngramRB | 3.8 | −2.6 | 49% | 57% | 8% | 2% | 9 car, 10 yd · 2/2, 8 yd |
| Scott MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −0.3 | 78% | 74% | 6% | 7% | 2/3, 18 yd |
| Tre'Quan SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −0.7 | 66% | 63% | 12% | 9% | 2/3, 17 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +0.5 | 23% | 28% | 2% | 4% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| Ke'Shawn VaughnRB | 1.9 | −2.8 | 26% | 26% | 4% | 1% | 3 car, 19 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.7 | 57% | 43% | 8% | 11% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Nick VannettTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | 57% | 43% | 4% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 36% | 53% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Ty MontgomeryWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.2 | 33% | 37% | 8% | 8% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Easop WinstonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| O.J. HowardTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jaelon DardenWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.5 | 55% | 53% | 6% | 25% | 0/3, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:50) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass deep left to 1-M.Callaway to TB 24 for 40 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting).
Q1 7:50 · Saints · 3rd & 6 at NO 36 · gained 40 · +4.22 EP · +13.3% win probability
166 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
3 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 60 yards from the NO 19 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Saints3
Buccaneers0Saints6Buccaneers0Saints9Buccaneers0Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 13/27 | 154 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −3.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 | −5.0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 18 | 1.6 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 | −5.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Callaway | 6 | 9 | 112 | 0 | 36% | +7.5 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 12% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chauncey Gardner-Johnson | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Demario Davis | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| David Onyemata | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Dowell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/48 | 214 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −16.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_15_NO_TB
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -11.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 9 — under by 36.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 24% | −3.5 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8% | +1.0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8% | −1.7 |
| Ty Montgomery | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −2.1 |
| Nick Vannett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Cameron Jordan | 5 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshon Lattimore | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Marcus Williams | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Williams | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalyn Holmes | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 |
| 63 |
| 7.9 |
| 0 |
| +1.0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin | 6 | 7 | 49 | 0 | 15% | +1.3 |
| Tyler Johnson | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 | 15% | −1.0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 7 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 15% | +1.1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 11 | 29 | 0 | 23% | −5.7 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 8% | +0.2 |
| Scott Miller | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 6% | −2.1 |
| Mike Evans | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2% | +1.7 |
| Ronald Jones | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.3 |
| O.J. Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| Jaelon Darden | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 7 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Gholston | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Adams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joe Tryon | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Triner | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ndamukong Suh | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
