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2021 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 19, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium
24
31
Miami Dolphins 31–24. Biggest swing: Q4 7:52, NYJ +23% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(7:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 84-H.Long INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Echols at MIA 20. 26-B.Echols for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Jets | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 54 | 67 |
| Total yards | 228 | 382 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.2 | 5.7 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.17 | -0.03 (edge) |
| Success rate | 39% | 48% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 61% | 46% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.36 | -0.01 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.13 (edge) | -0.04 |
| Third downs | 3/11 | 5/12 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 | 9 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 14 | 22 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 6 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 3 |
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
16/27, 196 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-1.8 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
13/23, 170 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-11.6 expected points added · -12.9% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | 7 | 1:54 | Punt | |
| 2 | NYJ | NYJ 17 | 11 | 83 | 6:04 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | MIA | MIA 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:13 | Interception | |
| 4 | NYJ | MIA 25 | 6 | 16 | 2:19 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | 0 | 0:52 | Punt | |
| 6 | NYJ | NYJ 34 | 4 | 1 | 0:55 | Punt | |
| 7 | MIA | MIA 32 | 9 | 68 | 4:01 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 10 | 54 | 4:13 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | MIA | MIA 25 | 15 | 73 | 7:30 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 8 | 20 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 11 | MIA | MIA 3 | 1 | 0 | 0:21 | End of half | |
| 12 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 5 | 3 | 1:40 | Punt | |
| 13 | MIA | MIA 22 | 9 | 78 | 3:36 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 8 | 4 | 3:46 | Punt | |
| 15 | MIA | MIA 42 | 13 | 51 | 6:35 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 4 | 37 | 1:27 | Fumble | |
| 17 | MIA | MIA 39 | 4 | 19 | 2:33 | Fumble | |
| 18 | NYJ | MIA 45 | 4 | -12 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 19 | MIA | MIA 20 | 3 | 6 | 1:03 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 20 | MIA | MIA 25 | 11 | 75 | 4:08 | Touchdown | |
| 21 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 5 | 3 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 22 | MIA | MIA 14 | 4 | 5 | 0:26 | Punt | |
| 23 | NYJ | NYJ 37 | 4 | 19 | 0:26 | Turnover on downs | |
| 24 | MIA | NYJ 45 | 2 | 0 | 1:10 | End of game |
0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 83 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 13/23 | 170 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11.6 |
| Keelan Cole | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Michael Carter | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 | -2.4 |
| Zach Wilson | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 | 1.2 |
| Austin Walter | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Braxton Berrios |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 5 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 36% | 1.9 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 | 9% | 3.0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 9% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Mosley | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Elijah Riley |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 16/27 | 196 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 22 | 107 | 4.9 | 2 |
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -10.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42; the game landed 55 — over by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 10 |
| 5.0 |
| 1 |
| 2.7 |
| 2.6 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 5% | -0.1 |
| Trevon Wesco | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 5% | 1.2 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 9% | -2.8 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9% | -1.0 |
| Zach Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -0.7 |
| Denzel Mims | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14% | -1.7 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandin Echols | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Sharrod Neasman | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Hall | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Sheldon Rankins | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javelin Guidry | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3.6 |
| Myles Gaskin | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 | -1.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Clayton Fejedelem | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -3.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 8 | 68 | 1 | 31% | 3.5 |
| Isaiah Ford | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 12% | 5.8 |
| Mike Gesicki | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 31% | -3.6 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 4% | 1.2 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | 0.3 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | 0.1 |
| Christian Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4% | 0.5 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -1.1 |
| Hunter Long | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -6.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Wilkins | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jerome Baker | 4 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke Riley | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nik Needham | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eric Rowe | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Coleman | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
