2021 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 19, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium

New York Jets

Miami DolphinsWinner

MIA -10.5 no coverO 42 ✓Dolphins closed -10.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Miami Dolphins 31–24. Biggest swing: Q4 7:52, NYJ +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 7:52NYJ — MIA MIA ball · 2nd & 14MIA 92%

(7:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 84-H.Long INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Echols at MIA 20. 26-B.Echols for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 7:52NYJ +23% win prob(7:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 84-H.Long INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Echols at MIA 20. 26-B.Echols for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:43MIA +13% win prob(3:43) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 11-D.Parker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 15:00MIA +13% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 11-D.Parker to NYJ 2 for 37 yards (33-E.Riley; 26-B.Echols).
Q1 · 7:02NYJ +12% win prob(7:02) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Davis at MIA 43. 21-A.Davis to MIA 25 for 18 yards (11-D.Parker).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Dolphins
Offensive plays	54	67
Total yards	228	382 (edge)
Yards per play	4.2	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.17	-0.03 (edge)
Success rate	39%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	61%	46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.36	-0.01 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	-0.04
Third downs	3/11	5/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

16/27, 196 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-1.8 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

13/23, 170 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-11.6 expected points added · -12.9% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Duke JohnsonRB

22 att, 107 yds, 2 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Myles GaskinRB

10 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

DeVante ParkerWR

4/8 for 68 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Isaiah FordWR

3/3 for 51 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	5	7	1:54	Punt
2	NYJ	NYJ 17	11	83	6:04	Touchdown
3	MIA	MIA 25	2	0	0:13	Interception
4	NYJ	MIA 25	6	16	2:19	Turnover on downs
5	MIA	MIA 25	5	0	0:52	Punt
6	NYJ	NYJ 34	4	1	0:55	Punt
7	MIA	MIA 32	9	68	4:01	Touchdown
8	NYJ	NYJ 25	10	54	4:13	Touchdown
9	MIA	MIA 25	15	73	7:30	Turnover on downs
10	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	20	1:38	Punt
11	MIA	MIA 3	1	0	0:21	End of half
12	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	3	1:40	Punt
13	MIA	MIA 22	9	78	3:36	Touchdown
14	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	4	3:46	Punt
15	MIA	MIA 42	13	51	6:35	Touchdown
16	NYJ	NYJ 25	4	37	1:27	Fumble
17	MIA	MIA 39	4	19	2:33	Fumble
18	NYJ	MIA 45	4	-12	1:35	Punt
19	MIA	MIA 20	3	6	1:03	Defensive touchdown
20	MIA	MIA 25	11	75	4:08	Touchdown
21	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	3	1:35	Punt
22	MIA	MIA 14	4	5	0:26	Punt
23	NYJ	NYJ 37	4	19	0:26	Turnover on downs
24	MIA	NYJ 45	2	0	1:10	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 83 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	13/23	170	0	0	6	-11.6
Keelan Cole	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tevin Coleman	8	50	6.3	0	2.3
Michael Carter	8	18	2.3	0	-2.4
Zach Wilson	4	12	3.0	1	1.2
Austin Walter	2	12	6.0	0	-0.7
Braxton Berrios	2	10	5.0	1	2.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jamison Crowder	5	8	40	36%	1.9
Ryan Griffin	2	2	39	9%	3.0
Tyler Kroft	2	2	35	9%	2.6
Braxton Berrios	1	1	26	5%	-0.1
Trevon Wesco	1	1	19	5%	1.2
Keelan Cole	1	2	9	9%	-2.8
Michael Carter	1	2	2	9%	-1.0
Zach Wilson	0	1	0	5%	-0.7
Denzel Mims	0	3	0	14%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
C.J. Mosley	6	6	0.0	0	0
Quincy Williams	6	3	0.0	0	0
Ashtyn Davis	3	5	0.0	1	1
Elijah Riley	3	3	0.0	0	1
Michael Carter	3	2	0.0	0	0
Brandin Echols	2	2	0.0	1	3
Sharrod Neasman	3	0	0.0	0	0
Bryce Hall	3	0	0.0	0	3
Sheldon Rankins	1	2	1.0	0	0
Javelin Guidry	1	1	0.0	0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	16/27	196	2	2	1	-1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Duke Johnson	22	107	4.9	2	3.6
Myles Gaskin	10	54	5.4	0	-0.8
Tua Tagovailoa	7	19	2.7	0	-1.7
Jacoby Brissett	1	2	2.0	0	1.4
Albert Wilson	1	1	1.0	0	-0.4
Clayton Fejedelem	1	0	0.0	0	-3.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	4	8	68	1	31%	3.5
Isaiah Ford	3	3	51	0	12%	5.8
Mike Gesicki	5	8	43	0	31%	-3.6
Duke Johnson	1	1	20	0	4%	1.2
Albert Wilson	1	2	9	0	8%	0.3
Durham Smythe	1	1	4	0	4%	0.1
Christian Wilkins	1	1	1	1	4%	0.5
Mack Hollins	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.1
Hunter Long	0	1	0	0	4%	-6.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Christian Wilkins	2	5	0.0	1
Jerome Baker	4	3	2.0	0
Elandon Roberts	1	5	0.0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	4	1	1.0	0
Brandon Jones	3	2	1.0	0
Duke Riley	2	2	0.0	0
Nik Needham	2	2	0.0	0
Zach Sieler	2	1	1.0	1
Eric Rowe	1	2	0.0	0
Justin Coleman	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -10.5
Closing total: 42
NYJ moneyline: +366
MIA moneyline: -445

Dolphins closed -10.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42; the game landed 55 — over by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 82°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: NYJ 7 days · MIA 14 days
Coaches: Robert Saleh vs Brian Flores

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.