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polling · 300s tick · as of 4:38 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 19, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 15
It turned at Q4 7:52, 2nd and 14, on Brandin Echols — 23.3 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Miami Dolphins 31–24. Biggest swing: Q4 7:52, Jets +23.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:52 · 2nd and 14
Brandin Echols
Jets
(7:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 84-H.Long INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Echols at MIA 20. 26-B.Echols for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
23.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Dolphins at 3 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Jets at 6 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Dolphins won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — -0.01 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.36 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 17.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(7:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 84-H.Long INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Echols at MIA 20. 26-B.Echols for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
DeVante Parker's 11-yard touchdown catch with 3:43 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
DeVante Parker11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+724–319 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categoryDolphins
Dolphins ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 54 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 67 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Dolphins 5.
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Jets-2.6 ptsright on their number · −2.9 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 54 snaps
Dolphins-6.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.3 vs their 2.3 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 91%
Tendencies room →Jets54.8%right on their number · −4.4 vs their 59.1%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 42 early downs
Dolphins46.2%inside their normal wobble · −12.0 vs their 58.1%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 129%
Fourth Down room →Jets—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.8%.
Dolphins60.0%inside their normal wobble · +19.7 vs their 40.3%, and they swing ±34.8 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 39%
Tendencies room →Jets12.9%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Dolphins24.2%inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.72× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
MIA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -6.0 pts, 8.3 points below their season mean of 2.3 pts and 1.1 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
16/27, 196 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-1.8 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
13/23, 170 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-11.6 expected points added · -12.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Duke Johnson banked 5.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke JohnsonRB · Committee Back | 25.7 | +5.8 | 58% | 35% | 4% | 0% | 22 car, 107 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 20 yd |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.8 | +2.0 | 89% | 87% | 31% | 36% | 4/8, 68 yd, 1 TD |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 13.7 | −4.1 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 16/27, 196 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 7 car, 19 yd |
| Zach WilsonQB · Starter QB | 12.0 | −4.9 | 100% | — | 5% | 6% | 13/23, 170 yd · 4 car, 12 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +3.7 | 33% | 24% | 5% | 0% | 2 car, 10 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 26 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Alpha Receiver | 9.3 | −5.0 | 63% | 71% | 31% | 26% | 5/8, 43 yd |
| Jamison CrowderWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.0 | −2.6 | 89% | 91% | 36% | 37% | 5/8, 40 yd |
| Isaiah FordWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +3.8 | 27% | 45% | 12% | 16% | 3/3, 51 yd |
| Ryan GriffinTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | +3.0 | 40% | 27% | 9% | 7% | 2/2, 39 yd |
| Tyler KroftTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | +2.8 | 63% | 67% | 9% | 0% | 2/2, 35 yd |
| Myles GaskinRB | 5.4 | +0.7 | 37% | 42% | 0% | — | 10 car, 54 yd |
| Tevin ColemanRB | 5.0 | +0.3 | 37% | 27% | 0% | — | 8 car, 50 yd |
| Michael CarterRB · Committee Back | 3.0 | −3.6 | 54% | 58% | 9% | 0% | 8 car, 18 yd · 1/2, 2 yd |
| Trevon WescoTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +1.5 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Albert WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −1.6 | 58% | 45% | 8% | 19% | 1 car, 1 yd · 1/2, 9 yd |
| Keelan ColeWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −2.2 | 75% | 70% | 9% | 15% | 0/1, 0 yd · 1/2, 9 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.7 | 92% | 74% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Austin WalterRB | 1.2 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jacoby BrissettQB | 0.2 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Hunter LongTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 32% | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.3 | 18% | 23% | 4% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tommylee LewisWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Denzel MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.3 | 40% | 42% | 14% | 23% | 0/3, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 84-H.Long INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Echols at MIA 20. 26-B.Echols for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 7:52 · Dolphins · 2nd & 14 at MIA 16 · gained nothing · -6.92 EP · −28.0% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 83 yards from the NYJ 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jets6
Dolphins0Jets7Dolphins0Jets10Dolphins0Jets10Dolphins6Jets10Dolphins7Jets16Dolphins7Jets17Dolphins7Jets17Dolphins10Jets17Dolphins16Jets17Dolphins17Jets17Dolphins23Jets17Dolphins24Jets23Dolphins24Jets24Dolphins24Jets24Dolphins30Jets24Dolphins31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 13/23 | 170 | 0 | 0 | 6 | −11.6 |
| Keelan Cole | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Michael Carter | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Zach Wilson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 5 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 36% | +1.9 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 | 9% | +3.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Mosley | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Elijah Riley |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 16/27 | 196 | 2 | 2 | 1 | −1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_15_NYJ_MIA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -10.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42; the game landed 55 — over by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 4 |
| 12 |
| 3.0 |
| 1 |
| +1.2 |
| Austin Walter | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 | +2.7 |
| Tyler Kroft | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 9% | +2.6 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 5% | −0.1 |
| Trevon Wesco | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 5% | +1.2 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 9% | −2.8 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9% | −1.0 |
| Zach Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| Denzel Mims | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14% | −1.7 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandin Echols | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Sharrod Neasman | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Hall | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Sheldon Rankins | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javelin Guidry | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 |
| 107 |
| 4.9 |
| 2 |
| +3.6 |
| Myles Gaskin | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Clayton Fejedelem | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 8 | 68 | 1 | 31% | +3.5 |
| Isaiah Ford | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 12% | +5.8 |
| Mike Gesicki | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 31% | −3.6 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 4% | +1.2 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | +0.3 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| Christian Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Hunter Long | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −6.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Wilkins | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jerome Baker | 4 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke Riley | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nik Needham | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eric Rowe | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Coleman | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
