2021 Week 15 · Tue, Dec 21, 2021 · SoFi Stadium

Seattle Seahawks

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -7.5 ✓U 47 ✓DomeRams closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Los Angeles Rams 20–10. Biggest swing: Q4 10:55, LA +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 10:55SEA — LA LA ball · 1st & 10LA 73%

(10:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-A.Woods].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 10:55LA +15% win prob(10:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-A.Woods].
Q3 · 8:05LA +10% win prob(8:05) (Shotgun) 25-S.Michel left tackle to SEA 6 for 39 yards (26-R.Neal; 6-Q.Diggs).
Q3 · 9:27LA +10% win prob(9:27) 31-D.Dallas up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:03LA +9% win prob(1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 81-G.Everett to LA 14 for 34 yards (24-T.Rapp, 50-E.Jones) [40-V.Miller]. Penalty on LA-5-J.Ramsey, Defensive Holding, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Rams
Offensive plays	53	59
Total yards	214	335 (edge)
Yards per play	4.0	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.23	-0.08 (edge)
Success rate	40% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	64%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34	-0.07 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.09
Third downs	3/11	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1	1

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

21/29, 244 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-2.4 expected points added · -0.2% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

17/31, 156 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.6 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Sony MichelRB

18 att, 92 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

DeeJay DallasRB

8 att, 41 yds, 1 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

9/13 for 136 yds, 2 TD

45% of team targets · 0.9 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Gerald EverettTE

4/4 for 60 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 34	10	39	6:44	Turnover on downs
2	SEA	SEA 25	9	23	4:14	Punt
3	LA	LA 12	9	45	4:13	Interception
4	SEA	SEA 31	4	0	1:56	Punt
5	LA	LA 32	12	27	7:07	Punt
6	SEA	SEA 17	4	4	1:04	Punt
7	LA	LA 25	7	43	2:46	Turnover on downs
8	SEA	SEA 32	7	52	1:46	Turnover on downs
9	LA	LA 25	2	0	0:10	End of half
10	SEA	SEA 25	13	85	5:37	Touchdown
11	LA	LA 14	8	86	2:52	Touchdown
12	SEA	SEA 25	7	16	2:51	Punt
13	LA	LA 20	4	-1	1:29	Punt
14	SEA	SEA 35	4	5	1:10	Punt
15	LA	LA 12	9	83	5:13	Touchdown
16	SEA	SEA 25	7	-6	3:06	Punt
17	LA	LA 13	4	-5	2:17	Punt
18	SEA	SEA 46	4	8	2:04	Turnover on downs
19	LA	SEA 35	5	18	1:30	Turnover on downs
20	SEA	SEA 25	7	27	1:06	Interception
21	LA	LA 20	2	0	0:45	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 86 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	17/31	156	0	1	3	-11.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
DeeJay Dallas	8	41	5.1	1	2.7
Rashaad Penny	11	39	3.5	0	-3.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Gerald Everett	4	4	60	14%	3.4
DK Metcalf	6	12	52	43%	-2.3
Freddie Swain	1	1	25	4%	2.5
DeeJay Dallas	3	4	11	14%	-4.9
Rashaad Penny	2	2	5	7%	-1.1
Will Dissly	1	1	3	4%	-0.4
D'Wayne Eskridge	0	4	0	14%	-2.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordyn Brooks	6	4	0.0	0	1
Ryan Neal	4	3	0.0	0	0
Quandre Diggs	4	3	0.0	1	1
Rasheem Green	2	3	1.0	0	0
Bobby Wagner	4	1	0.0	0	1
Sidney Jones	4	0	0.0	0	0
Poona Ford	2	1	0.0	0	0
Ugochukwu Amadi	3	0	0.0	0	0
Carlos Dunlap	3	0	3.0	0	0
Blessuan Austin	2	0	0.0	0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	21/29	244	2	1	4	-2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Sony Michel	18	92	5.1	-2.2
Darrell Henderson	6	23	3.8	-0.1
Van Jefferson	1	10	10.0	0.6
Cooper Kupp	1	1	1.0	-0.7
Matthew Stafford	3	-3	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	9	13	136	2	45%	0.9
Ben Skowronek	4	5	42	0	17%	1.3
Sony Michel	2	2	23	0	7%	0.3
Van Jefferson	2	2	23	0	7%	3.0
Brycen Hopkins	1	1	9	0	3%	1.7
Odell Beckham	1	3	7	0	10%	-0.3
Darrell Henderson	2	2	4	0	7%	-0.9
Kendall Blanton	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ernest Jones	4	6	0.0	0	1
Von Miller	3	3	1.0	0	0
Aaron Donald	2	3	1.0	0	0
Jalen Ramsey	5	0	0.0	0	2
Darious Williams	3	1	0.0	0	0
Nick Scott	2	2	0.0	0	0
Justin Hollins	1	2	0.0	0	0
Troy Reeder	1	2	0.0	0	0
Taylor Rapp	0	2	0.0	1	1
David Long	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -7.5
Closing total: 47
SEA moneyline: +298
LA moneyline: -352

Rams closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 47; the game landed 30 — under by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: SEA 7 days · LA 6 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Sean McVay

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.