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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Seahawks151 of 163 plays carry both curves
(10:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-A.Woods].
Swing +14.9 for RamsExpected points +2.82 for RamsThe model had Seahawks 5 points higher than the market did.play 124
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 10:55LA +15% win prob(10:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-A.Woods].
3rd · 8:05LA +10% win prob(8:05) (Shotgun) 25-S.Michel left tackle to SEA 6 for 39 yards (26-R.Neal; 6-Q.Diggs).
3rd · 9:27LA +10% win prob(9:27) 31-D.Dallas up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:03LA +9% win prob(1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 81-G.Everett to LA 14 for 34 yards (24-T.Rapp, 50-E.Jones) [40-V.Miller]. Penalty on LA-5-J.Ramsey, Defensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 15:00SEA +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 6-Q.Diggs at SEA 6. 6-Q.Diggs to SEA 31 for 25 yards (73-D.Edwards).
3rd · 8:36LA +8% win prob(8:36) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 10-C.Kupp to SEA 45 for 32 yards (23-S.Jones). Penalty on SEA-36-B.Austin, Defensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cooper Kupp's 29-yard touchdown catch with 10:55 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st8:21Matt Gay·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+30–3
2nd0:14Jason Myers·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+33–3
3rd6:35Cooper Kupp·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+710–10
4th10:55Cooper Kupp·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+710–17
4th1:56Matt Gay·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+310–20
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryRams
Seahawks2–5Rams
214Total yards335
4.0Yards per play5.7
40%Success rate37%
27%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays8
12First downs18
3Sacks taken4
1Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Seahawks: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.08Rams: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.34Seahawks: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.07Rams: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Seahawks: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.09Rams: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 53 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Rams’s 59 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 2, Rams 3.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +5.9 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Rams17.6%
leaned — got home · +5.0 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 18.2%, 5.9 points above their season mean of 12.3% and 1.1 times their own 5.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 2 inactive · 1 never used
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%57 snaps
66Gabe JacksonG · Every snap100%57 snaps
74Jake CurhanT · Every snap100%57 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
76Duane BrownT · Every snap100%57 snaps
77Ethan PocicC · Full-time98%56 snaps
14DK MetcalfWR · Full-time93%53 snaps
18Freddie SwainWR · Full-time91%52 snaps
81Gerald EverettTE · Full-time84%48 snaps
1D'Wayne EskridgeWR · Heavy rotation70%40 snaps
31DeeJay DallasRB · Heavy rotation58%33 snaps
89Will DisslyTE · Rotational46%26 snaps
20Rashaad PennyRB · Rotational42%24 snaps
19Penny HartWR · Situational12%7 snaps
11Cody ThompsonWR · Situational2%1 snap
84Colby ParkinsonTE · Situational2%1 snap
61Kyle FullerG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 2
Dakoda ShepleyCJacob EasonQB
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Geno SmithQB
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 3 never used
55Brian AllenC · Every snap100%66 snaps
71Bobby EvansG · Every snap100%66 snaps
73David EdwardsG · Every snap100%66 snaps
63Austin CorbettG · Every snap100%66 snaps
77Andrew WhitworthT · Every snap100%66 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Full-time94%62 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Full-time92%61 snaps
3Odell BeckhamWR · Heavy rotation76%50 snaps
25Sony MichelRB · Heavy rotation73%48 snaps
86Kendall BlantonTE · Heavy rotation65%43 snaps
88Brycen HopkinsTE · Rotational33%22 snaps
18Ben SkowronekWR · Rotational32%21 snaps
27Darrell HendersonRB · Rotational27%18 snaps
65Coleman SheltonG · Situational5%3 snaps
19Brandon PowellWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 4
Anthony HinesLBChris GarrettLBTerrell LewisOLBBryce PerkinsQB
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-A.Woods].
Q4 10:55 · Rams · 1st & 10 at SEA 29 · gained 29 · +2.82 EP · +14.9% win probability
149 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 88 yards from the LA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
37%
Yards
546
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.2776%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.0457%
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR17-0.2782%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.1036%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.1027%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Seahawks0Rams3
Field goal13 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Seahawks 37
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 47
The period ended10 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Seahawks 44
2nd quarter44 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt5 plays
Punt13 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Seahawks 31
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 17 to the Seahawks 21
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 32
Seahawks3Rams3
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Rams 14
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Seahawks9Rams3
Seahawks10Rams3
Touchdown14 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Seahawks10Rams9
Seahawks10Rams10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 14 to the Seahawks 6
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 41
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Seahawks 40
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter46 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Seahawks10Rams16
Seahawks10Rams17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 10 to the Seahawks 29
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 13 to the Rams 16
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Seahawks 46 to the Rams 45
Seahawks10Rams20
Field goal6 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Seahawks 17
Drive ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 41
The period ended1 play
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
