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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 19, 2021 · Heinz Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 15
It turned at Q4 0:46, 4th and 7, on Nick Westbrook-Ikhine — 34.3 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:46 · 4th and 7
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Steelers
(:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to PIT 10 for 6 yards (23-J.Haden). Official measurement. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Pittsburgh Steelers 19–13. Biggest swing: Q4 0:46, Steelers +34.3% win probability on one snap.
34.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Titans at 5 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 18 on third down, against Steelers at 2 of 11 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Steelers at 1 chunk play.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to PIT 10 for 6 yards (23-J.Haden). Official measurement. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Uphel
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chris Boswell's 46-yard field goal with 7:25 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Chris Boswell46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.KuntzLead never changed again+313–168 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Titanscategory by categorySteelers
Titans ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 78 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Steelers’s 44 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Titans 4, Steelers 3.
Titans outgained Steelers 318-169 but lost the turnover battle 5-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's pass rate over expected turned over: +2.0 pts in week 14 against −14.5 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
78 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
PIT's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 14 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 29.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Titans-14.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −6.5 vs their -8.0 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 78 snaps
Steelers1.0 ptsright on their number · +2.2 vs their -1.1 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 44 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 85%
Tendencies room →Titans39.7%inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 46.1%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 58 early downs
Steelers54.5%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 57.3%, and they swing ±10.7 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 33 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 106%
Fourth Down room →Titans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 49.2%.
Steelers0.0%inside their normal wobble · −27.1 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±29.6 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 31%
Tendencies room →Titans14.3%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Steelers21.6%leaned — got home · +6.2 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
TEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -14.5 pts, 6.5 points below their season mean of -8.0 pts and 1.0 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · TEN
23/32, 153 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-8.6 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
16/25, 148 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-7.6 expected points added · -7.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Diontae Johnson banked 1.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta ForemanRB · Committee Back | 15.5 | 0.0 | 39% | 16% | 9% | 0% | 22 car, 108 yd · 2/3, 27 yd |
| Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Starter QB | 11.9 | −5.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/25, 148 yd · 3 car, 0 yd, 1 TD |
| Ryan TannehillQB · Starter QB | 9.9 | −13.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/32, 153 yd, 1 INT · 5 car, 18 yd, 1 TD |
| Dontrell HilliardRB · Committee Back | 9.9 | −4.2 | 36% | 46% | 19% | 3% | 9 car, 49 yd · 4/6, 10 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Featured Receiver | 9.8 | +1.8 | 98% | 100% | 20% | 7% | 1 car, 10 yd · 5/5, 38 yd |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 8.1 | +0.4 | 29% | 43% | 9% | 0% | 6 car, 26 yd · 3/3, 25 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +1.4 | 45% | 54% | 16% | 18% | 4/4, 37 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Featured Receiver | 7.2 | −7.4 | 89% | 92% | 22% | 52% | 4/7, 32 yd |
| Chester RogersWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | +1.0 | 35% | 38% | 13% | 5% | 4/4, 30 yd |
| James WashingtonWR · Featured Receiver | 6.6 | −2.8 | 35% | 39% | 20% | 61% | 3/5, 36 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Bell Cow Back | 4.6 | −11.5 | 100% | 100% | 20% | 0% | 12 car, 18 yd · 2/5, 8 yd |
| Zach GentryTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +1.6 | 76% | 68% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| Chase ClaypoolWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.9 | 63% | 61% | 8% | 13% | 1 car, 7 yd · 0/2, 12 yd |
| Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.0 | 21% | 41% | 6% | 7% | 2/2, 19 yd |
| Geoff SwaimTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −2.5 | 74% | 51% | 6% | 6% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Cody HollisterWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −2.2 | 70% | 57% | 6% | 24% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.4 | 34% | 27% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −4.3 | 67% | 79% | 12% | 12% | 1/3, 0 yd |
| Benny SnellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Julio JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.6 | 34% | 49% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Racey McMathWR · Rotational Receiver | -1.1 | −2.5 | 28% | 24% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, -1 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to PIT 10 for 6 yards (23-J.Haden). Official measurement. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 0:46 · Titans · 4th & 7 at PIT 16 · gained 6 · -2.25 EP · −23.7% win probability
161 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 65 yards from the TEN 25 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Titans6
Steelers0Titans7Steelers0Titans10Steelers0Titans10Steelers3Titans13Steelers3Titans13Steelers9Titans13Steelers10Titans13Steelers13Titans13Steelers16Titans13Steelers19Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Titans at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 23/32 | 153 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −8.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 22 | 108 | 4.9 | 0 | +3.6 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 22% | −2.6 |
| Chester Rogers | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 13% | +2.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Cunningham | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashaan Evans | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 16/25 | 148 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −7.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_15_TEN_PIT
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -1 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 44; the game landed 32 — under by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 | −3.1 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 9% | +2.0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 9% | +3.2 |
| Anthony Firkser | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 19% | −8.2 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Cody Hollister | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | +0.6 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Julio Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Racey McMath | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | −4.2 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kristian Fulton | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Naquan Jones | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Cole | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Strong | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 |
| 18 |
| 1.5 |
| 0 |
| −4.7 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | +0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 20% | +0.4 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 16% | +2.6 |
| James Washington | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 20% | +0.6 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 4% | +1.2 |
| Chase Claypool | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 8% | −2.4 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 20% | −4.2 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12% | −1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Edmunds | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 2 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Arthur Maulet | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 4 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Bush | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joe Schobert | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Robert Spillane | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Wormley | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Sutton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
