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polling · 300s tick · as of 4:38 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 15 · Tue, Dec 21, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 15
It turned at Q1 4:25, 1st and 10, on Terry McLaurin — 14.9 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Philadelphia Eagles 27–17. Biggest swing: Q1 4:25, Commanders +14.9% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:25 · 1st and 10
Terry McLaurin
Commanders
(4:25) (Shotgun) 19-G.Gilbert pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin to PHI 7 for 46 yards (2-D.Slay).
14.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Commanders at 4 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Eagles at 2 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 16.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(4:25) (Shotgun) 19-G.Gilbert pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin to PHI 7 for 46 yards (2-D.Slay).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jalen Hurts's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 12:30 left in the 3rd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryEagles
Eagles ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 54 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Eagles’s 70 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Eagles 6.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 14 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.4 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders-7.1 ptsright on their number · −3.4 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 54 snaps
Eagles-4.8 ptsright on their number · +1.4 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 92%
Tendencies room →Commanders55.0%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 40 early downs
Eagles40.0%inside their normal wobble · −10.0 vs their 50.0%, and they swing ±16.4 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Commanders0.0%leaned — took the kick · −35.2 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±25.4 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Eagles33.3%right on their number · −3.5 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±25.9 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 34%
Tendencies room →Commanders9.4%inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Eagles21.2%leaned — got home · +8.7 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 35.2 points below their season mean of 35.2% and 1.4 times their own 25.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
20/26, 296 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
6.0 expected points added · +11.3% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
20/31, 194 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-2.8 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Dallas Goedert banked 6.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 27.6 | −1.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/26, 296 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 8 car, 38 yd, 2 TD |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Alpha Receiver | 20.5 | +6.4 | 93% | 84% | 35% | 43% | 7/9, 135 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.5 | −3.3 | 78% | 79% | 23% | 0% | 15 car, 26 yd, 1 TD · 6/7, 39 yd |
| Miles SandersRB · Committee Back | 16.6 | +1.5 | 49% | 38% | 8% | 0% | 18 car, 131 yd · 2/2, 15 yd |
| Greg WardWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.8 | +2.4 | 31% | 25% | 12% | 7% | 2/3, 28 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.7 | +3.6 | 55% | 53% | 12% | 6% | 3/3, 57 yd |
| Jaret PattersonRB | 8.0 | +2.3 | 18% | 18% | 0% | — | 4 car, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Garrett GilbertQB · Starter QB | 7.8 | −2.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/31, 194 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +1.5 | 89% | 88% | 13% | 49% | 2/4, 51 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Featured Receiver | 7.0 | −4.2 | 87% | 88% | 19% | 38% | 3/5, 40 yd |
| Jordan HowardRB · Committee Back | 6.9 | −1.9 | 48% | 44% | 0% | — | 15 car, 69 yd |
| Ricky Seals-JonesTE · Featured Receiver | 6.9 | −3.8 | 60% | 73% | 23% | 25% | 4/7, 29 yd |
| Adam HumphriesWR · Featured Receiver | 5.3 | −3.7 | 62% | 67% | 20% | 11% | 3/6, 23 yd |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | +0.1 | 49% | 33% | 10% | 3% | 1 car, 12 yd · 2/3, 12 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +1.9 | 62% | 48% | 3% | 8% | 1/1, 29 yd |
| Quez WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +0.7 | 35% | 38% | 8% | 6% | 2/2, 14 yd |
| Cam SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +1.3 | 45% | 55% | 3% | 7% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Jack StollTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | 54% | 38% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Dax MilneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.8 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jonathan WilliamsRB | 0.5 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 0.0 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Alex ArmahRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | 21% | 0% | — | No touches. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:35) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at WAS 23 for -7 yards (90-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (90-M.Sweat) [90-M.Sweat], RECOVERED by WAS-26-L.Collins at WAS 24. 26-L.Collins to WAS 47 for 23 yards (18-J.Reagor).
Q1 4:35 · Eagles · 2nd & 6 at WAS 16 · lost 8 · -7.04 EP · −17.8% win probability
152 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 80 yards from the PHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Commanders6
Eagles0Commanders7Eagles0Commanders10Eagles0Commanders10Eagles3Commanders10Eagles9Commanders10Eagles10Commanders10Eagles16Commanders10Eagles17Commanders10Eagles20Commanders16Eagles20Commanders17Eagles20Commanders17Eagles26Commanders17Eagles27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Gilbert | 20/31 | 194 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −2.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 15 | 26 | 1.7 | 1 | −3.7 |
| Jaret Patterson | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 1 | −0.2 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 13% | +0.9 |
| Antonio Gibson | 6 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 23% | +0.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Reaves | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamin Davis | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Holcomb | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Landon Collins |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 20/26 | 296 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +6.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_15_WAS_PHI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -10 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 44 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Jonathan Williams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 3% | +2.9 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 23% | −0.8 |
| Adam Humphries | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 20% | −1.0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| DeAndre Carter | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | +0.0 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3% | −1.8 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Jonathan Allen | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Toohill | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby McCain | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Ioannidis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 |
| 131 |
| 7.3 |
| 0 |
| +5.4 |
| Jordan Howard | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 2 | +0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 7 | 9 | 135 | 0 | 35% | +5.8 |
| Jalen Reagor | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 | 12% | +4.9 |
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 19% | +0.1 |
| Greg Ward | 2 | 3 | 28 | 1 | 12% | +3.0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8% | +0.5 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 8% | +1.4 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.3 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Edwards | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Avonte Maddox | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rodney McLeod | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Slay | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Marcus Epps | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarron Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fletcher Cox | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
