2021 Week 15 · Tue, Dec 21, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field

Washington Commanders

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

PHI -10 pushO 39.5 ✓Eagles closed -10 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Philadelphia Eagles 27–17. Biggest swing: Q1 4:25, PHI +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 4:25WAS — PHI WAS ball · 1st & 10PHI 62%

(4:25) (Shotgun) 19-G.Gilbert pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin to PHI 7 for 46 yards (2-D.Slay).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 4:25PHI +15% win prob(4:25) (Shotgun) 19-G.Gilbert pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin to PHI 7 for 46 yards (2-D.Slay).
Q1 · 4:35WAS +13% win prob(4:35) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at WAS 23 for -7 yards (90-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (90-M.Sweat) [90-M.Sweat], RECOVERED by WAS-26-L.Collins at WAS 24. 26-L.Collins to WAS 47 for 23 yards (18-J.Reagor).
Q1 · 11:33WAS +12% win prob(11:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Collins at PHI 26. 26-L.Collins to PHI 26 for no gain.
Q2 · 10:56PHI +8% win prob(10:56) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 88-D.Goedert to WAS 31 for 45 yards (39-J.Reaves).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Eagles
Offensive plays	54	70
Total yards	237	519 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	7.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.13	0.12 (edge)
Success rate	37%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	61%	46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	0.18 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20	0.07 (edge)
Third downs	6/13	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

20/26, 296 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

6.0 expected points added · +11.3% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Garrett GilbertQB

20/31, 194 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.8 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Miles SandersRB

18 att, 131 yds, 0 TD

5.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Jordan HowardRB

15 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

Dallas GoedertTE

7/9 for 135 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Jalen ReagorWR

3/3 for 57 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	6	26	2:20	Punt
2	PHI	PHI 13	3	9	1:11	Interception
3	WAS	PHI 26	8	26	3:14	Touchdown
4	PHI	PHI 31	8	45	3:50	Fumble
5	WAS	WAS 47	5	49	1:38	Turnover on downs
6	PHI	PHI 29	9	50	4:32	Punt
7	WAS	WAS 20	4	8	1:45	Punt
8	PHI	PHI 23	8	75	3:23	Turnover on downs
9	WAS	WAS 25	5	8	1:48	Punt
10	PHI	PHI 23	12	82	4:50	Touchdown
11	WAS	WAS 30	6	12	1:29	End of half
12	PHI	PHI 25	8	75	2:34	Touchdown
13	WAS	WAS 25	5	-1	0:55	Punt
14	PHI	PHI 31	6	28	2:56	Punt
15	WAS	WAS 10	6	9	2:24	Punt
16	PHI	PHI 37	10	44	5:53	Turnover on downs
17	WAS	WAS 31	9	61	3:34	Touchdown
18	PHI	PHI 20	10	80	3:58	Touchdown
19	WAS	WAS 25	13	26	5:17	Turnover on downs
20	PHI	PHI 49	7	31	2:10	Turnover on downs
21	WAS	WAS 20	1	13	0:19	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 82 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Garrett Gilbert	20/31	194	0	0	2	-2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Antonio Gibson	15	26	1.7	1	-3.7
Jaret Patterson	4	20	5.0	1	-0.2
DeAndre Carter	1	12	12.0	0	-0.6
Jonathan Williams	1	5	5.0	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	2	4	51	13%	0.9
Antonio Gibson	6	7	39	23%	0.0
John Bates	1	1	29	3%	2.9
Ricky Seals-Jones	4	7	29	23%	-0.8
Adam Humphries	3	6	23	20%	-1.0
Cam Sims	1	1	13	3%	1.4
DeAndre Carter	2	3	12	10%	0.0
Dax Milne	1	1	-2	3%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jeremy Reaves	8	3	0.0	0	0
Jamin Davis	4	5	0.0	0	0
Cole Holcomb	3	4	0.0	0	0
Landon Collins	4	3	0.0	1	1
Jonathan Allen	3	2	1.0	0	0
Casey Toohill	1	4	0.0	0	0
Danny Johnson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Bobby McCain	3	1	0.0	0	0
Matt Ioannidis	3	1	0.0	0	0
Daron Payne	2	1	0.0	0	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	20/26	296	1	1	3	6.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Miles Sanders	18	131	7.3	0	5.4
Jordan Howard	15	69	4.6	0	-3.6
Jalen Hurts	8	38	4.8	2	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dallas Goedert	7	9	135	0	35%	5.8
Jalen Reagor	3	3	57	0	12%	4.9
DeVonta Smith	3	5	40	0	19%	0.1
Greg Ward	2	3	28	1	12%	3.0
Miles Sanders	2	2	15	0	8%	0.5
Quez Watkins	2	2	14	0	8%	1.4
Jack Stoll	1	1	7	0	4%	0.3
Kenneth Gainwell	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Alex Singleton	4	4	0.0	0
T.J. Edwards	3	2	0.0	1
Avonte Maddox	4	0	0.0	1
Rodney McLeod	3	1	0.0	0
Darius Slay	4	0	0.0	2
Marcus Epps	3	0	0.0	0
Tarron Jackson	3	0	0.0	0
Fletcher Cox	2	1	2.0	0
Steven Nelson	2	1	0.0	0
Josh Sweat	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -10
Closing total: 39.5
WAS moneyline: +380
PHI moneyline: -465

Eagles closed -10 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 44 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 42°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: WAS 7 days · PHI 14 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Nick Sirianni

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.