2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CIN -7.5 ✓O 43 ✓Bengals closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Cincinnati Bengals 41–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 13:28, CIN +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 13:28BAL — CIN CIN ball · 2nd & 7CIN 79%

(13:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 83-T.Boyd for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 13:28CIN +9% win prob(13:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 83-T.Boyd for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 0:30CIN +7% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 8:47CIN +7% win prob(8:47) (Shotgun) 15-J.Johnson pass short middle to 5-M.Brown to CIN 17 for 15 yards (22-C.Awuzie).
Q2 · 1:12CIN +6% win prob(1:12) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 85-T.Higgins to BAL 3 for 52 yards (21-B.Stephens; 38-K.Seymour). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Bengals
Offensive plays	57	69
Total yards	334	576 (edge)
Yards per play	5.9	8.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.10	0.50 (edge)
Success rate	47%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	74%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.35	0.69 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.59	-0.01 (edge)
Third downs	6/11 (edge)	5/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21	30 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.50 expected points added per play vs 0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

37/46, 525 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

32.5 expected points added · +14.2% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Josh JohnsonQB

28/40, 304 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

14.3 expected points added · +7.3% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

18 att, 65 yds, 1 TD

-0.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Devonta FreemanRB

6 att, 17 yds, 1 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

12/13 for 194 yds, 2 TD

28% of team targets · 21.3 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

8/10 for 125 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 31	9	57	3:54	Turnover on downs
2	BAL	BAL 25	14	75	5:10	Touchdown
3	CIN	CIN 26	12	74	5:29	Touchdown
4	BAL	BAL 25	5	9	1:16	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 29	3	71	0:53	Touchdown
6	BAL	BAL 21	5	4	2:15	Punt
7	CIN	CIN 42	8	58	4:00	Touchdown
8	BAL	BAL 10	15	90	5:25	Touchdown
9	CIN	CIN 25	9	73	1:17	Touchdown
10	BAL	BAL 24	4	22	0:21	End of half
11	BAL	BAL 25	10	23	3:51	Punt
12	CIN	CIN 14	19	103	10:29	Turnover on downs
13	BAL	BAL 40	7	60	0:45	Touchdown
14	CIN	CIN 22	10	78	4:50	Touchdown
15	BAL	BAL 25	5	19	2:03	Turnover on downs
16	CIN	BAL 34	7	2	2:47	Turnover on downs
17	BAL	BAL 40	6	32	1:51	Interception
18	CIN	CIN 36	5	60	3:24	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 103 scrimmage yards over 19 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Johnson	28/40	304	2	1	1	14.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devonta Freeman	6	17	2.8	1	0.7
Latavius Murray	5	12	2.4	0	-4.3
Josh Johnson	5	10	2.0	0	-5.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mark Andrews	8	10	125	1	27%	9.3
James Proche	7	8	76	0	22%	3.7
Marquise Brown	5	9	44	0	24%	-1.8
Rashod Bateman	4	5	26	1	14%	3.5
Tylan Wallace	1	2	18	0	5%	1.5
Latavius Murray	1	1	12	0	3%	1.5
Devonta Freeman	2	2	3	0	5%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tony Jefferson	6	4	1.0	1
Patrick Queen	4	5	0.0	1
Kevon Seymour	2	4	0.0	1
Chuck Clark	4	2	0.0	0
Josh Bynes	4	2	0.0	1
Daryl Worley	5	0	0.0	0
Brandon Stephens	3	2	0.0	0
Tyus Bowser	2	2	0.0	0
Tavon Young	3	0	0.0	0
Isaiah Mack	1	2	1.0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	37/46	525	4	0	3	32.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	18	65	3.6	1	-0.0
Joe Burrow	2	11	5.5	0	-3.0
Chris Evans	1	1	1.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	12	13	194	2	28%	21.3
Ja'Marr Chase	7	10	125	0	22%	6.9
Tyler Boyd	3	5	85	1	11%	5.5
Joe Mixon	6	6	70	1	13%	5.1
C.J. Uzomah	5	7	36	0	15%	-0.4
Drew Sample	2	2	9	0	4%	0.3
Samaje Perine	2	2	6	0	4%	-0.6
Chris Evans	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Markus Bailey	3	4	0.0	0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	2	5	0.0	0	2
Germaine Pratt	5	1	0.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	5	1	0.0	0	0
Eli Apple	2	3	0.0	0	0
Vonn Bell	2	3	0.0	1	2
Jessie Bates	3	1	0.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	3	0	0.0	0	0
Samaje Perine	2	0	0.0	0	0
Trey Hendrickson	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -7.5
Closing total: 43
BAL moneyline: +306
CIN moneyline: -369

Bengals closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Total closed 43; the game landed 62 — over by 19.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: BAL 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.