2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · Gillette Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

New England Patriots

NE -1 upsetO 43.5 ✓Patriots closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Buffalo Bills 33–21. Biggest swing: Q2 8:09, BUF +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 8:09BUF — NE NE ball · 2nd & 10BUF 57%

(8:09) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 1-N.Harry INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde (54-A.Klein) at BUF 45. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at NE 33 for 22 yards (16-J.Meyers).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 8:09BUF +15% win prob(8:09) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 1-N.Harry INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde (54-A.Klein) at BUF 45. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at NE 33 for 22 yards (16-J.Meyers).
Q1 · 14:20BUF +13% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at NE 19 for -6 yards (91-E.Oliver).
Q2 · 2:15NE +10% win prob(2:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs to NE 11 for 23 yards (32-D.McCourty; 58-J.Collins).
Q2 · 4:51BUF +10% win prob(4:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 1-E.Sanders.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Patriots
Offensive plays	74	60
Total yards	429 (edge)	288
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	0.31 (edge)	0.09
Success rate	54% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	68%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.46 (edge)	-0.05
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.00	0.30 (edge)
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	1/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	29 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

30/47, 314 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

20.6 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

14/32, 145 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-3.1 expected points added · -18.9% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

18 att, 103 yds, 3 TD

7.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

12 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Isaiah McKenzieWR

11/12 for 125 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 15.3 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

7/13 for 85 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	5	-6	1:26	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 39	14	61	6:57	Touchdown
3	NE	NE 25	15	85	7:09	Touchdown
4	BUF	BUF 25	11	68	5:27	Turnover on downs
5	NE	NE 19	4	14	1:04	Interception
6	BUF	NE 33	7	32	3:13	Turnover on downs
7	NE	NE 1	4	7	1:34	Punt
8	BUF	NE 42	8	37	1:25	Touchdown
9	NE	NE 25	7	7	0:45	Punt
10	BUF	BUF 20	2	11	1:00	End of half
11	BUF	BUF 20	15	79	5:58	Turnover on downs
12	NE	NE 25	16	77	7:21	Touchdown
13	BUF	BUF 34	11	66	4:59	Touchdown
14	NE	NE 25	12	70	4:05	Touchdown
15	BUF	BUF 25	15	75	5:07	Touchdown
16	NE	NE 17	10	34	1:27	Interception
17	BUF	BUF 3	2	0	1:03	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 85 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	30/47	314	3	0	0	20.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Allen	12	64	5.3	0	2.1
Devin Singletary	12	39	3.3	1	0.2
Zack Moss	3	12	4.0	0	1.0
Isaiah McKenzie	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Isaiah McKenzie	11	12	125	1	28%	15.3
Stefon Diggs	7	13	85	1	30%	6.5
Devin Singletary	5	6	39	0	14%	2.2
Emmanuel Sanders	2	4	20	0	9%	-3.1
Zack Moss	1	1	13	0	2%	0.9
Jake Kumerow	1	3	13	0	7%	-1.4
Dawson Knox	2	3	11	1	7%	1.9
Reggie Gilliam	1	1	8	0	2%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	6	1	0.0	0	0
Micah Hyde	3	3	0.0	2	2
Harrison Phillips	4	1	0.0	0	0
Matt Milano	2	2	0.0	0	0
Ed Oliver	3	1	1.0	0	0
Jordan Poyer	1	2	0.0	0	0
A.J. Klein	3	0	0.0	0	1
Taron Johnson	1	2	0.0	0	1
Dane Jackson	3	0	0.0	0	0
Levi Wallace	1	0	0.0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	14/32	145	0	2	1	-3.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Damien Harris	18	103	5.7	3	7.4
Mac Jones	6	33	5.5	0	1.6
Gunner Olszewski	1	9	9.0	0	0.8
Brandon Bolden	2	4	2.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jakobi Meyers	6	8	59	26%	4.0
Kendrick Bourne	2	4	33	13%	2.1
Brandon Bolden	2	5	20	16%	-1.1
N'Keal Harry	2	6	15	19%	-3.7
Jakob Johnson	1	1	9	3%	1.0
Hunter Henry	1	6	9	19%	-1.7
Damien Harris	0	1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Myles Bryant	8	1	0
Kyle Van Noy	4	3	0
Devin McCourty	2	4	1
Dont'a Hightower	3	3	0
Jalen Mills	6	0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	2	4	0
Adrian Phillips	0	4	1
Kyle Dugger	4	0	0
Matt Judon	1	2	1
J.C. Jackson	2	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -1
Closing total: 43.5
BUF moneyline: +102
NE moneyline: -114

Patriots closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 54 — over by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 38°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: BUF 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Bill Belichick

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.