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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 16
It turned at Q2 8:09, 2nd and 10, on Micah Hyde — 15.2 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 8:09 · 2nd and 10
Micah Hyde
Bills
(8:09) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 1-N.Harry INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde (54-A.Klein) at BUF 45. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at NE 33 for 22 yards (16-J.Meyers).
Buffalo Bills 33–21. Biggest swing: Q2 8:09, Bills +15.2% win probability on one snap.
15.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Bills won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Patriots at 1 of 10 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Patriots at 2 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.46 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.05 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Bills at 4 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(8:09) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 1-N.Harry INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde (54-A.Klein) at BUF 45. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at NE 33 for 22 yards (16-J.Meyers).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Bass's 25-yard field goal with 9:04 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Tyler Bass25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+310–79 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryPatriots
Bills ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 74 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Patriots’s 60 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Bills 7, Patriots 3.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's pass rate over expected, +17.5 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 2.2 points clear of the next team along.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate, 80.0%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 4 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 16.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 18.7 points.
NE's fourth-and-short go rate, 80.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 15 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 16.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 31.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
Over Expected room →Bills17.5 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +13.1 vs their 4.4 pts, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.83× that swing) · 73 snaps
Patriots-9.8 ptsright on their number · −3.6 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 96%
Tendencies room →Bills61.4%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 60.2%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 57 early downs
Patriots56.8%right on their number · +6.6 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±17.8 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Bills80.0%off script — went for it · +42.5 vs their 37.5%, and they swing ±18.7 week to week (+2.26× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Patriots80.0%leaned — went for it · +50.0 vs their 30.0%, and they swing ±31.1 week to week (+1.61× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 34%
Tendencies room →Bills11.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Patriots8.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 80.0%, 42.5 points above their season mean of 37.5% and 2.3 times their own 18.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 3 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 3
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
30/47, 314 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
20.6 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected
Passing · NE
14/32, 145 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-3.1 expected points added · -18.9% completion over expected
Receiving · BUF
11/12 for 125 yds, 1 TD
28% of team targets · 15.3 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Damien Harris banked 13.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 31.0 | −9.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 30/47, 314 yd, 3 TD · 12 car, 64 yd |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Alpha Receiver | 29.4 | +6.8 | 85% | 82% | 28% | 34% | 1 car, -1 yd · 11/12, 125 yd, 1 TD |
| Damien HarrisRB · Bell Cow Back | 28.3 | +13.4 | 48% | 25% | 3% | 0% | 18 car, 103 yd, 3 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.5 | −4.9 | 82% | 80% | 30% | 38% | 7/13, 85 yd, 1 TD |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 18.8 | −0.3 | 68% | 70% | 14% | 1% | 12 car, 39 yd, 1 TD · 5/6, 39 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.9 | −1.6 | 75% | 83% | 26% | 29% | 6/8, 59 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | 0.0 | 100% | 96% | 7% | 2% | 2/3, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | −1.5 | 47% | 64% | 13% | 17% | 2/4, 33 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 5.1 | −9.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/32, 145 yd, 2 INT · 6 car, 33 yd |
| Brandon BoldenRB · Receiving Back | 4.4 | −3.3 | 53% | 67% | 16% | 5% | 2 car, 4 yd · 2/5, 20 yd |
| Emmanuel SandersWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −5.0 | 82% | 86% | 9% | 5% | 2/4, 20 yd |
| Zack MossRB | 3.5 | +0.2 | 33% | 26% | 2% | 1% | 3 car, 12 yd · 1/1, 13 yd |
| N'Keal HarryTE · Featured Receiver | 3.5 | −7.5 | 95% | 92% | 19% | 28% | 2/6, 15 yd |
| Jake KumerowWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −5.3 | 20% | 20% | 7% | 11% | 1/3, 13 yd |
| Jakob JohnsonRB | 1.9 | +0.3 | 25% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Featured Receiver | 1.9 | −7.1 | 86% | 86% | 19% | 24% | 1/6, 9 yd |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 1.8 | +0.3 | 11% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Marquez StevensonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 33% | 22% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:09) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 1-N.Harry INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde (54-A.Klein) at BUF 45. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at NE 33 for 22 yards (16-J.Meyers).
Q2 8:09 · Patriots · 2nd & 10 at NE 33 · gained nothing · -4.67 EP · −13.6% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 179 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 75 yards from the NE 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bills6
Patriots0Bills7Patriots0Bills7Patriots6Bills7Patriots7Bills10Patriots7Bills16Patriots7Bills17Patriots7Bills20Patriots7Bills20Patriots13Bills20Patriots14Bills26Patriots14Bills26Patriots20Bills26Patriots21Bills32Patriots21Bills33Patriots21Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 30/47 | 314 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +20.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 12 | 64 | 5.3 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Devin Singletary | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 1 | +0.2 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah McKenzie | 11 | 12 | 125 | 1 | 28% | +15.3 |
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 13 | 85 | 1 | 30% | +6.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremaine Edmunds | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Hyde | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Harrison Phillips | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 14/32 | 145 | 0 | 2 | 1 | −3.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_16_BUF_NE
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 54 — over by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Devin Singletary | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 14% | +2.2 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 9% | −3.1 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2% | +0.9 |
| Jake Kumerow | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 7% | −1.4 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 7% | +1.9 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2% | +0.6 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ed Oliver | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Klein | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Taron Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dane Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 |
| 103 |
| 5.7 |
| 3 |
| +7.4 |
| Mac Jones | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 8 | 59 | 0 | 26% | +4.0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 13% | +2.1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 16% | −1.1 |
| N'Keal Harry | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 19% | −3.7 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 19% | −1.7 |
| Damien Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Bryant | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin McCourty | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dont'a Hightower | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Mills | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Phillips | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Dugger | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Judon | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| J.C. Jackson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
