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Chicago Bears 25, Seahawks 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:01, on Damiere Byrd — 20.5 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:01
Damiere Byrd
Bears
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-N.Foles pass to 10-D.Byrd is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
27°F · 16.7 mph
Seahawks closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Chicago Bears 25–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:01, Bears +20.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
20.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jimmy GrahamBearsQ4 1:07(1:07) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 80-J.Graham for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.7pts
Russell WilsonBearsQ4 0:21(:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 16-T.Lockett [55-B.Irvin]. PENALTY on CHI-55-B.Irvin, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 14 yards, enforced between downs.
20.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bears won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Seahawks at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bears won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Seahawks at 3 of 10 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.04 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Bears at 4 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Bears161 of 170 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 1:01Bears 25 — Seahawks 24CHI ballSEA 71%
Bears 29%Seahawks 71%
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-N.Foles pass to 10-D.Byrd is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Swing −20.5 for SeahawksExpected points −1.05 for SeahawksModel and market agree here.play 158
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:01SEA +21% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-N.Foles pass to 10-D.Byrd is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
4th · 0:21CHI +20% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 16-T.Lockett [55-B.Irvin]. PENALTY on CHI-55-B.Irvin, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 14 yards, enforced between downs.
4th · 1:07SEA +16% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 80-J.Graham for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:49SEA +12% win prob(13:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to CHI 38, Center-69-T.Ott. 83-D.Newsome pushed ob at CHI 42 for 4 yards (25-T.Homer). PENALTY on CHI-30-D.Virgin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 38.
3rd · 5:36SEA +11% win prob(5:36) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert left tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:27CHI +10% win prob(14:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 21 for -7 yards (sack split by 99-T.Gipson and 98-B.Nichols).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jimmy Graham's 15-yard touchdown catch with 1:07 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:08DK Metcalf·41-yd TD catch41-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+70–7
3rd3:38Gerald Everett·24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+714–24
4th10:46Cairo Santos·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+317–24
4th1:07Jimmy Graham·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Folesfrom Nick Foles · two-point goodLead never changed again+825–24
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categorySeahawks
Bears4–5Seahawks
320Total yards331
4.6Yards per play6.2
45%Success rate40%
50%Third-down rate30%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays7
24First downs15
4Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Seahawks ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Bears: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.15Seahawks: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Bears: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.07Seahawks: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Bears: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.26Seahawks: +0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 69 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 53 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Bears 5, Seahawks 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 16Against their seasonFourth Down
SEA's fourth-and-short go rate, 33.3%, is past their previous high of 0.0% in week 1 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 16.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +4.4 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Seahawks22.0%
leaned — got home · +9.6 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+1.77× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 28.6 points above their season mean of 4.8% and 2.3 times their own 12.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Foles pass+21% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-N.Foles pass to 10-D.Byrd is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q4 1:01 · Bears · — at SEA 2 · gained 2 · +1.05 EP · +20.6% win probability
159 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 80 yards from the SEA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
42%
Yards
650
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.0262%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.1559%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.4068%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1038%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.080%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 28
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Bears 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Bears0Seahawks6
Bears0Seahawks7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Bears 41
Turnover on downs17 plays, from the Bears 27 to the Seahawks 2
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt4 plays
Bears6Seahawks7
Bears7Seahawks7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 15 to the Seahawks 1
Bears7Seahawks13
Bears7Seahawks14
Touchdown15 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Bears 3
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Bears 46
Bears7Seahawks17
Field goal8 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Bears 17
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 31
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 49 to the Bears 43
Bears13Seahawks17
Bears14Seahawks17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Seahawks 20
Bears14Seahawks23
Bears14Seahawks24
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Bears 24
The period ended7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Seahawks 31
4th quarter50 plays
Bears17Seahawks24
Field goal9 plays, from the Seahawks 15 to the Seahawks 5
No good8 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Bears 8
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Bears 46
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 46 to the Bears 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Bears23Seahawks24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Bears25Seahawks24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Seahawks 11
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Seahawks 36
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -7
Closing total
41
Bears moneyline
+268
Seahawks moneyline
-313
Seahawks closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41; the game landed 49 — over by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 27°F at kickoff; windy at 17 mph out of the north; 0.08 in of precipitation; slight snow.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Bears 6 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Matt Nagy vs Pete Carroll
NoteWind at 16.7 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
4th · 0:48
CHI +10% win prob
(:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles up the middle to SEA 34 for 3 yards (58-R.Smith). PENALTY on SEA-77-E.Pocic, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 31 - No Play.
1st · 9:08SEA +9% win prob(9:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
