2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · Lumen Field

Chicago BearsWinner

Seattle Seahawks

SEA -7 upsetO 41 ✓25°FSeahawks closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Chicago Bears 25–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:01, SEA +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:01CHI — SEA CHI ballSEA 71%

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-N.Foles pass to 10-D.Byrd is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:01SEA +21% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-N.Foles pass to 10-D.Byrd is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q4 · 0:21CHI +20% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 16-T.Lockett [55-B.Irvin]. PENALTY on CHI-55-B.Irvin, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 14 yards, enforced between downs.
Q4 · 1:07SEA +16% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 80-J.Graham for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 13:49SEA +12% win prob(13:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to CHI 38, Center-69-T.Ott. 83-D.Newsome pushed ob at CHI 42 for 4 yards (25-T.Homer). PENALTY on CHI-30-D.Virgin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 38.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Seahawks
Offensive plays	69	53
Total yards	320	331 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	6.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.07	0.15 (edge)
Success rate	45% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	59%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	0.26 (edge)
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Nick FolesQB

24/35, 250 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.5 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

16/27, 181 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

1.8 expected points added · -3.6% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Rashaad PennyRB

17 att, 135 yds, 1 TD

5.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

21 att, 45 yds, 1 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Gerald EverettTE

4/5 for 68 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

7/9 for 61 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 25	5	-4	1:20	Punt
2	CHI	CHI 28	4	8	1:36	Punt
3	SEA	SEA 20	8	80	3:04	Touchdown
4	CHI	CHI 27	16	45	8:27	Turnover on downs
5	SEA	SEA 2	4	2	1:53	Punt
6	CHI	SEA 15	6	25	3:25	Touchdown
7	SEA	SEA 26	14	65	5:28	Touchdown
8	CHI	CHI 33	8	21	3:45	Fumble
9	SEA	SEA 28	7	55	0:45	Turnover on downs
10	CHI	CHI 25	2	12	0:17	End of half
11	CHI	CHI 20	7	1	3:09	Punt
12	SEA	CHI 49	4	6	0:54	Punt
13	CHI	CHI 18	11	61	5:27	Touchdown
14	SEA	SEA 39	6	61	1:58	Touchdown
15	CHI	CHI 25	14	63	7:50	Turnover on downs
16	SEA	SEA 32	8	32	3:24	Turnover on downs
17	CHI	CHI 29	5	17	2:17	Turnover on downs
18	SEA	CHI 46	6	15	2:05	Punt
19	CHI	CHI 20	7	67	1:55	Touchdown
20	SEA	SEA 27	5	19	0:44	Turnover on downs
21	CHI	SEA 46	1	0	0:17	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 80 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Foles	24/35	250	1	0	4	5.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Montgomery	21	45	2.1	1	-2.9
Khalil Herbert	2	21	10.5	1	2.4
Damien Williams	1	12	12.0	0	-0.1
Nick Foles	4	8	2.0	0	-0.0
Darnell Mooney	2	2	1.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
David Montgomery	7	9	61	0	26%	2.0
Darnell Mooney	5	9	57	0	26%	-0.9
Cole Kmet	4	5	49	0	14%	4.5
Jimmy Graham	2	2	30	1	6%	4.8
Marquise Goodwin	2	2	23	0	6%	3.3
Damiere Byrd	1	3	11	0	9%	-0.7
Dazz Newsome	1	2	10	0	6%	1.2
Khalil Herbert	1	1	7	0	3%	-0.3
Damien Williams	1	2	2	0	6%	-3.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Alec Ogletree	3	5	0.0	1
Eddie Jackson	6	0	0.0	0
Roquan Smith	4	2	0.0	0
Deon Bush	3	2	0.0	1
Duke Shelley	3	1	0.0	0
Thomas Graham Jr.	3	1	0.0	1
Trevis Gipson	0	3	0.5	0
Kindle Vildor	3	0	0.0	0
Robert Quinn	1	1	1.0	0
Angelo Blackson	1	1	0.0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	16/27	181	2	0	2	1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rashaad Penny	17	135	7.9	1	5.0
DeeJay Dallas	4	15	3.8	0	-0.1
Russell Wilson	2	13	6.5	0	0.1
D'Wayne Eskridge	1	7	7.0	0	1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Gerald Everett	4	5	68	1	19%	6.5
DK Metcalf	2	5	41	1	19%	-0.1
Tyler Lockett	3	6	30	0	22%	-0.2
DeeJay Dallas	4	4	23	0	15%	-0.1
D'Wayne Eskridge	2	3	10	0	11%	0.8
Freddie Swain	1	2	9	0	7%	-0.5
Rashaad Penny	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Colby Parkinson	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Wagner	4	7	0.0	0
Sidney Jones	1	5	0.0	1
Jordyn Brooks	3	3	0.0	2
Quandre Diggs	2	3	0.0	0
Ryan Neal	1	4	0.0	0
John Reid	2	3	0.0	2
Carlos Dunlap	5	0	2.0	1
Poona Ford	2	2	0.0	0
Al Woods	3	1	0.0	0
Benson Mayowa	2	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -7
Closing total: 41
CHI moneyline: +268
SEA moneyline: -313

Seahawks closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 49 — over by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lumen Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 25°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: CHI 6 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Pete Carroll