2021 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 25, 2021 · Lambeau Field

Cleveland Browns

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -7.5 no coverU 46.5 ✓Packers closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Green Bay Packers 24–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:50, CLE +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:50CLE — GB CLE ball · 3rd & 10GB 69%

(:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-D.Peoples-Jones INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB 40. 29-R.Douglas to GB 46 for 6 yards.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:50CLE +27% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-D.Peoples-Jones INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB 40. 29-R.Douglas to GB 46 for 6 yards.
Q4 · 2:14CLE +13% win prob(2:14) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 11-D.Peoples-Jones ran ob at CLE 25 for 8 yards (41-H.Black).
Q2 · 2:00CLE +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB 40. 29-R.Douglas to CLE 49 for 11 yards (53-N.Harris).
Q1 · 0:43CLE +8% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 39-C.Sullivan at GB 9. 39-C.Sullivan to GB 22 for 13 yards (10-A.Schwartz).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Packers
Offensive plays	66	57
Total yards	409 (edge)	312
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	0.15	0.16 (edge)
Success rate	55% (edge)	49%
Dropback rate	65%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01	0.17 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.45 (edge)	0.15
Third downs	7/12 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	12 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	28 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	5	0 (edge)
Turnovers	4	0 (edge)

Browns outgained Packers 409–312 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

21/36, 222 yds, 2 TD, 4 INT

-1.9 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

24/34, 202 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

5.7 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

17 att, 126 yds, 1 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

12 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

10/13 for 114 yds, 2 TD

38% of team targets · 9.6 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

3/4 for 58 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	7	61	2:39	Touchdown
2	GB	GB 25	9	17	3:36	Punt
3	CLE	CLE 8	1	0	0:08	Interception
4	GB	GB 47	6	58	3:24	Touchdown
5	CLE	CLE 25	11	51	4:38	Interception
6	GB	GB 22	11	78	4:48	Touchdown
7	CLE	CLE 30	8	70	3:44	Touchdown
8	GB	GB 25	5	2	2:21	Punt
9	CLE	CLE 29	4	21	2:51	Interception
10	GB	CLE 49	10	49	1:39	Touchdown
11	CLE	CLE 29	2	0	0:12	End of half
12	GB	GB 10	12	76	5:48	Turnover on downs
13	CLE	CLE 15	15	71	8:05	Turnover on downs
14	GB	GB 32	5	-1	1:18	Punt
15	CLE	CLE 28	11	34	5:52	Punt
16	GB	GB 20	4	7	2:16	Punt
17	CLE	CLE 24	9	76	2:10	Touchdown
18	GB	GB 25	7	17	2:26	Punt
19	CLE	CLE 25	8	25	1:22	Interception
20	GB	GB 46	3	9	0:43	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 78 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	21/36	222	2	4	5	-1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	17	126	7.4	1	4.4
D'Ernest Johnson	4	58	14.5	0	4.4
Anthony Schwartz	2	24	12.0	0	1.5
Baker Mayfield	2	11	5.5	0	1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nick Chubb	3	4	58	0	11%	4.9
Rashard Higgins	5	6	58	0	17%	6.4
Jarvis Landry	4	7	55	0	19%	-2.2
Austin Hooper	3	5	26	0	14%	-0.2
D'Ernest Johnson	1	2	8	0	6%	-0.2
Andy Janovich	2	2	6	0	6%	0.8
Anthony Schwartz	1	1	5	1	3%	1.3
Donovan Peoples-Jones	1	6	5	0	17%	-5.5
Harrison Bryant	1	1	1	1	3%	0.6
David Njoku	0	2	0	0	6%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
M.J. Stewart	7	1	0
Anthony Walker	2	6	0
Grant Delpit	4	2	0
Greedy Williams	5	0	0
Denzel Ward	2	2	2
Tommy Togiai	2	2	1
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	1	3	0
Porter Gustin	1	1	0
Herb Miller	1	1	0
Anthony Schwartz	1	0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	24/34	202	3	0	0	5.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Aaron Jones	12	66	5.5	3.7
A.J. Dillon	9	41	4.6	0.8
Allen Lazard	1	13	13.0	0.9
Aaron Rodgers	1	-1	-1.0	-2.0
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	-10	-10.0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	10	13	114	2	38%	9.6
Allen Lazard	2	5	45	1	15%	2.0
Aaron Jones	5	6	21	0	18%	-1.6
A.J. Dillon	3	3	15	0	9%	-0.1
Josiah Deguara	2	3	5	0	9%	-2.1
Marcedes Lewis	2	3	2	0	9%	-1.5
Juwann Winfree	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
De'Vondre Campbell	9	1	0.0	0	1
Darnell Savage	4	3	0.0	1	1
Rasul Douglas	5	0	0.0	2	2
Krys Barnes	4	1	0.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	5	0	0.0	0	0
Kenny Clark	3	1	0.0	0	0
Preston Smith	2	1	1.0	0	0
Oren Burks	2	0	0.0	0	0
Rashan Gary	2	0	2.0	0	0
Henry Black	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -7.5
Closing total: 46.5
CLE moneyline: +343
GB moneyline: -430

Packers closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 46 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 35°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: CLE 6 days · GB 6 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Matt LaFleur