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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 25, 2021 · Lambeau Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 16
It turned at Q4 0:50, 3rd and 10, on Rasul Douglas — 27.3 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 24–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:50, Packers +27.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:50 · 3rd and 10
Rasul Douglas
Packers
(:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-D.Peoples-Jones INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB 40. 29-R.Douglas to GB 46 for 6 yards.
27.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 4 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 12 chunk plays, against Packers at 4 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 12 on third down, against Packers at 3 of 10 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Browns owned this one and still lost it — +0.45 expected points per carry, against Packers at +0.15 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-D.Peoples-Jones INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB 40. 29-R.Douglas to GB 46 for 6 yards.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Allen Lazard's 11-yard touchdown catch with 5:19 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Allen Lazard11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron RodgersLead never changed again+76–7
Harrison Bryant1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker Mayfield · two-point no good+612–148 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryPackers
Browns ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 66 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Packers’s 57 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Browns 5, Packers 4.
Browns outgained Packers 409-312 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CLE's pass rate over expected turned over: −18.3 pts in week 15 against −3.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · +0.2σ from their own normal
GB's sack or hit rate turned over: 4.0% in week 15 against 14.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points. · +0.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Browns-3.7 ptsright on their number · +1.0 vs their -4.7 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 65 snaps
Packers2.1 ptsright on their number · −1.6 vs their 3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 74%
Tendencies room →Browns57.7%inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 52 early downs
Packers56.5%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 55.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 129%
Fourth Down room →Browns—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 45.4%.
Packers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 51.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 38%
Tendencies room →Browns11.8%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Packers14.0%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was CLE's early-down pass rate, 57.7% against a season mean of 51.8% — and CLE swings 8.6 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 3 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 3
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
21/36, 222 yds, 2 TD, 4 INT
-1.9 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected
Passing · GB
24/34, 202 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
5.7 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Nick Chubb banked 10.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 33.4 | +9.3 | 93% | 100% | 38% | 54% | 10/13, 114 yd, 2 TD |
| Nick ChubbRB · Bell Cow Back | 27.4 | +10.0 | 60% | 47% | 11% | 0% | 17 car, 126 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 58 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 20.0 | +1.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/34, 202 yd, 3 TD · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.8 | +2.9 | 86% | 94% | 15% | 33% | 1 car, 13 yd · 2/5, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 13.7 | −1.2 | 56% | 59% | 18% | 0% | 12 car, 66 yd · 5/6, 21 yd |
| Rashard HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.8 | +1.2 | 65% | 67% | 17% | 16% | 5/6, 58 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 10.0 | −7.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/36, 222 yd, 2 TD, 4 INT · 2 car, 11 yd |
| Anthony SchwartzWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +5.4 | 16% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 2 car, 24 yd · 1/1, 5 yd, 1 TD |
| Jarvis LandryWR · Featured Receiver | 9.5 | −2.1 | 79% | 86% | 19% | 20% | 4/7, 55 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB · Committee Back | 8.6 | −0.4 | 44% | 41% | 9% | 0% | 9 car, 41 yd · 3/3, 15 yd |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 7.6 | +2.7 | 38% | 49% | 6% | 0% | 4 car, 58 yd · 1/2, 8 yd |
| Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +3.1 | 28% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd, 1 TD |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −2.5 | 54% | 49% | 14% | 13% | 3/5, 26 yd |
| Andy JanovichRB | 2.6 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −3.0 | 56% | 62% | 9% | 6% | 2/3, 5 yd |
| Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −4.6 | 42% | 35% | 9% | 1% | 2/3, 2 yd |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −11.1 | 87% | 86% | 17% | 41% | 1/6, 5 yd |
| Demetric FeltonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| David NjokuTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.6 | 57% | 58% | 6% | 7% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Patrick TaylorRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Juwann WinfreeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | 14% | 9% | 3% | 10% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Amari RodgersWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | -1.0 | −1.7 | 81% | 85% | 0% | — | 1 car, -10 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-D.Peoples-Jones INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB 40. 29-R.Douglas to GB 46 for 6 yards.
Q4 0:50 · Browns · 3rd & 10 at 50 · gained nothing · -2.95 EP · −26.1% win probability
154 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 78 yards from the GB 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Browns6
Packers0Browns6Packers6Browns6Packers7Browns6Packers13Browns6Packers14Browns12Packers14Browns12Packers20Browns12Packers21Browns12Packers24Browns15Packers24Browns21Packers24Browns22Packers24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 21/36 | 222 | 2 | 4 | 5 | −1.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 17 | 126 | 7.4 | 1 | +4.4 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 4 | 58 | 14.5 | 0 | +4.4 |
| Anthony Schwartz |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 4 | 58 | 0 | 11% | +4.9 |
| Rashard Higgins | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.J. Stewart | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Walker | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/34 | 202 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +5.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_16_CLE_GB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 46 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 24 |
| 12.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | +1.5 |
| +6.4 |
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 19% | −2.2 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 14% | −0.2 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −0.2 |
| Andy Janovich | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | +0.8 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3% | +1.3 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 17% | −5.5 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3% | +0.6 |
| David Njoku | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Greedy Williams | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Ward | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tommy Togiai | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Porter Gustin | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Herb Miller | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 66 | 5.5 | 0 | +3.7 |
| A.J. Dillon | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 10 | 13 | 114 | 2 | 38% | +9.6 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 5 | 45 | 1 | 15% | +2.0 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 18% | −1.6 |
| A.J. Dillon | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 9% | −0.1 |
| Josiah Deguara | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9% | −2.1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9% | −1.5 |
| Juwann Winfree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Vondre Campbell | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Darnell Savage | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Rasul Douglas | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Krys Barnes | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Amos | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oren Burks | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry Black | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
