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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalLas Vegas Raiders 17–13. Biggest swing: Q2 0:26, Broncos +25.4% win probability on one snap.
The verdict · 2021 Week 16
It turned at Q2 0:26, 1st and 10, on Bradley Chubb — 25.4 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:26 · 1st and 10
Bradley Chubb
Broncos
(:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 28-J.Jacobs INTERCEPTED by 55-B.Chubb at LV 22. 55-B.Chubb to LV 1 for 21 yards (28-J.Jacobs).
25.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Raiders at 4 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Raiders won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Broncos at 1 of 10 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 28% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Raiders won this one — -0.04 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.47 expected points per carry.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 28-J.Jacobs INTERCEPTED by 55-B.Chubb at LV 22. 55-B.Chubb to LV 1 for 21 yards (28-J.Jacobs).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Peyton Barber's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 10:26 left in the 3rd put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryRaiders
Raiders ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 40 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Raiders’s 63 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 1, Raiders 3.
Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's early-down pass rate, 41.2%, is past their previous low of 47.5% in week 6 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
LV's pass rate over expected, −7.4 pts, is past their previous low of −5.3 pts in week 11 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
DEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.0% in week 15 against 10.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points. · −0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-6.2 ptsright on their number · −1.6 vs their -4.6 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 40 snaps
Raiders-7.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.5 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.50× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 91%
Tendencies room →Broncos51.7%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 52.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 29 early downs
Raiders41.2%leaned — ran early · −19.3 vs their 60.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.66× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 98%
Fourth Down room →Broncos33.3%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 34.6%, and they swing ±24.6 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Raiders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 26.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 33%
Tendencies room →Broncos10.3%inside their normal wobble · −2.6 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Raiders12.0%inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
LV's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 41.2%, 19.3 points below their season mean of 60.4% and 1.7 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
20/25, 201 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.2 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
15/22, 153 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-2.3 expected points added · +2.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Hunter Renfrow banked 6.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.0 | +6.0 | 58% | 69% | 12% | 27% | 3/3, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.4 | −5.6 | 70% | 62% | 12% | 0% | 27 car, 129 yd · 1/3, -5 yd |
| Zay JonesWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.0 | −1.3 | 75% | 76% | 32% | 34% | 6/8, 50 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.7 | +3.8 | 94% | 93% | 16% | 26% | 4/4, 67 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 10.0 | +0.9 | 52% | 48% | 9% | 0% | 7 car, 12 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 8 yd |
| Peyton BarberRB | 9.2 | +4.4 | 17% | 10% | 4% | 0% | 5 car, 22 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 0 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 9.0 | +2.4 | 74% | 76% | 18% | 20% | 3/4, 60 yd |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 8.5 | −1.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/25, 201 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 5 yd |
| DeSean JacksonWR · Featured Receiver | 8.4 | +0.9 | 52% | 62% | 20% | 26% | 4/5, 44 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Featured Receiver | 7.3 | −1.0 | 79% | 80% | 23% | 24% | 4/5, 33 yd |
| Drew LockQB · Starter QB | 7.1 | −1.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/22, 153 yd · 2 car, 10 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Featured Receiver | 6.0 | +0.3 | 90% | 84% | 18% | 11% | 3/4, 30 yd |
| Tim PatrickWR · Featured Receiver | 3.8 | −2.5 | 86% | 88% | 18% | 22% | 2/4, 18 yd |
| Jalen RichardRB | 1.9 | 0.0 | 14% | 24% | 4% | 1% | 1 car, 4 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Melvin GordonRB · Committee Back | 1.0 | −3.5 | 55% | 48% | 5% | 0% | 7 car, -4 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Albert OkwuegbunamTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.4 | 33% | 32% | 9% | 26% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Diontae SpencerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 28-J.Jacobs INTERCEPTED by 55-B.Chubb at LV 22. 55-B.Chubb to LV 1 for 21 yards (28-J.Jacobs).
Q2 0:26 · Raiders · 1st & 10 at LV 26 · gained nothing · -6.51 EP · −30.0% win probability
134 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 142 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 142 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 76 yards from the LV 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
142 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
142 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos0
Raiders6Broncos0Raiders7Broncos3Raiders7Broncos6Raiders7Broncos12Raiders7Broncos13Raiders7Broncos13Raiders13Broncos13Raiders14Broncos13Raiders17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 15/22 | 153 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −2.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 1 | −2.0 |
| Drew Lock | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Melvin Gordon |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 4 | 60 | 0 | 18% | +1.5 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 23% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Griffith | 6 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Baron Browning | 1 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Williams |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 20/25 | 201 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −5.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_16_DEN_LV
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42; the game landed 30 — under by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 7 |
| -4 |
| -0.6 |
| 0 |
| −5.8 |
| +2.4 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 18% | −1.2 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 18% | +0.1 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 9% | +0.6 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −1.6 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ronald Darby | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shelby Harris | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Justin Simmons | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Jackson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shamar Stephen | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 27 | 129 | 4.8 | 0 | −5.2 |
| Peyton Barber | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 1 | +0.7 |
| Derek Carr | 7 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster Moreau | 4 | 4 | 67 | 0 | 16% | +4.1 |
| Zay Jones | 6 | 8 | 50 | 0 | 32% | +1.2 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 20% | +1.9 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 3 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 12% | +5.1 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 3 | -5 | 0 | 12% | −8.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Trufant | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Philon | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Nassib | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keisean Nixon | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Solomon Thomas | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Hayward | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinton Jefferson | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
