2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium

Denver Broncos

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

DEN -1 upsetU 42 ✓DomeBroncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Las Vegas Raiders 17–13. Biggest swing: Q2 0:26, DEN +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:26DEN — LV LV ball · 1st & 10LV 50%

(:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 28-J.Jacobs INTERCEPTED by 55-B.Chubb at LV 22. 55-B.Chubb to LV 1 for 21 yards (28-J.Jacobs).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:26DEN +25% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 28-J.Jacobs INTERCEPTED by 55-B.Chubb at LV 22. 55-B.Chubb to LV 1 for 21 yards (28-J.Jacobs).
Q3 · 3:28DEN +17% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at DEN 41 for -9 yards (96-S.Harris). FUMBLES (96-S.Harris) [96-S.Harris], RECOVERED by DEN-93-D.Jones at DEN 42.
Q2 · 2:09DEN +16% win prob(2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs right end to LV 36 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by DEN-98-M.Purcell at LV 41.
Q3 · 0:19DEN +14% win prob(:19) 8-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Raiders
Offensive plays	40	63
Total yards	158	346 (edge)
Yards per play	4.0	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.25	-0.09 (edge)
Success rate	28%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12 (edge)	-0.15
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.47	-0.04 (edge)
Third downs	1/10	6/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	6	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	4

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.25.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

20/25, 201 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.2 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Drew LockQB

15/22, 153 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.3 expected points added · +2.0% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

27 att, 129 yds, 0 TD

-5.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Peyton BarberRB

5 att, 22 yds, 1 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Foster MoreauTE

4/4 for 67 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Jerry JeudyWR

3/4 for 60 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	8	17	3:22	Punt
2	LV	LV 4	9	53	4:16	Punt
3	DEN	DEN 11	8	6	3:57	Punt
4	LV	LV 24	15	61	7:24	Touchdown
5	DEN	DEN 25	6	59	3:37	Turnover on downs
6	LV	LV 25	6	20	2:58	Punt
7	DEN	DEN 8	4	9	1:42	Punt
8	LV	LV 33	2	7	0:44	Fumble
9	DEN	LV 41	4	4	1:28	Turnover on downs
10	LV	LV 26	2	0	0:14	Interception
11	DEN	LV 1	2	1	0:03	Touchdown
12	LV	LV 25	2	0	0:15	End of half
13	LV	LV 25	11	75	4:38	Touchdown
14	DEN	DEN 25	6	22	2:27	Punt
15	LV	LV 13	8	45	4:36	Fumble
16	DEN	DEN 42	6	21	3:06	Turnover on downs
17	LV	LV 45	13	32	7:38	Turnover on downs
18	DEN	DEN 25	9	19	3:41	Punt
19	LV	LV 11	8	53	3:54	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Lock	15/22	153	0	0	2	-2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Javonte Williams	7	12	1.7	1	-2.0
Drew Lock	2	10	5.0	0	-0.1
Melvin Gordon	7	-4	-0.6	0	-5.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jerry Jeudy	3	4	60	18%	1.5
Courtland Sutton	4	5	33	23%	2.4
Noah Fant	3	4	30	18%	-1.2
Tim Patrick	2	4	18	18%	0.1
Javonte Williams	2	2	8	9%	0.6
Melvin Gordon	1	1	4	5%	-0.6
Albert Okwuegbunam	0	2	0	9%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jonas Griffith	6	7	0.0	0	0
Baron Browning	1	8	0.0	0	0
DeShawn Williams	1	5	0.0	0	0
Ronald Darby	5	1	0.0	0	1
Shelby Harris	2	3	1.5	0	0
Bradley Chubb	1	4	0.0	1	1
Justin Simmons	4	1	0.0	0	0
Kareem Jackson	3	2	0.0	0	0
Shamar Stephen	1	3	0.0	0	0
Patrick Surtain	3	1	0.0	0	0

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	20/25	201	1	1	2	-5.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	27	129	4.8	0	-5.2
Peyton Barber	5	22	4.4	1	0.7
Derek Carr	7	5	0.7	0	1.3
Jalen Richard	1	4	4.0	0	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Foster Moreau	4	4	67	0	16%	4.1
Zay Jones	6	8	50	0	32%	1.2
DeSean Jackson	4	5	44	0	20%	1.9
Hunter Renfrow	3	3	40	1	12%	5.1
Jalen Richard	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.8
Peyton Barber	1	1	0	0	4%	-0.9
Josh Jacobs	1	3	-5	0	12%	-8.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Desmond Trufant	7	0	0.0
Denzel Perryman	4	1	0.0
Darius Philon	4	0	0.0
Carl Nassib	1	2	0.0
Keisean Nixon	3	0	0.0
Solomon Thomas	1	1	0.0
Maxx Crosby	2	0	1.0
Casey Hayward	2	0	0.0
Quinton Jefferson	2	0	1.0
Josh Jacobs	1	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -1
Closing total: 42
DEN moneyline: -109
LV moneyline: -102

Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42; the game landed 30 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: DEN 7 days · LV 7 days
Coaches: Vic Fangio vs Rich Bisaccia

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.