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Las Vegas Raiders 17, Broncos 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:26, 1st and 10, on Bradley Chubb — 25.4 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:26 · 1st and 10
Bradley Chubb
Broncos
(:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 28-J.Jacobs INTERCEPTED by 55-B.Chubb at LV 22. 55-B.Chubb to LV 1 for 21 yards (28-J.Jacobs).
Dome
Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Las Vegas Raiders 17–13. Biggest swing: Q2 0:26, Broncos +25.4% win probability on one snap.
25.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh JacobsBroncosQ2 2:09(2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs right end to LV 36 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by DEN-98-M.Purcell at LV 41.
15.6pts
Derek CarrBroncosQ3 3:28(3:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at DEN 41 for -9 yards (96-S.Harris). FUMBLES (96-S.Harris) [96-S.Harris], RECOVERED by DEN-93-D.Jones at DEN 42.
16.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Raiders at 4 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Raiders won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Broncos at 1 of 10 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 28% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Raiders won this one — -0.04 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.47 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Broncos136 of 142 plays carry both curves
(:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 28-J.Jacobs INTERCEPTED by 55-B.Chubb at LV 22. 55-B.Chubb to LV 1 for 21 yards (28-J.Jacobs).
Swing −25.4 for RaidersExpected points −6.51 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 18 points higher than the market did.play 71
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:26DEN +25% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 28-J.Jacobs INTERCEPTED by 55-B.Chubb at LV 22. 55-B.Chubb to LV 1 for 21 yards (28-J.Jacobs).
3rd · 3:28DEN +17% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at DEN 41 for -9 yards (96-S.Harris). FUMBLES (96-S.Harris) [96-S.Harris], RECOVERED by DEN-93-D.Jones at DEN 42.
2nd · 2:09DEN +16% win prob(2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs right end to LV 36 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by DEN-98-M.Purcell at LV 41.
3rd · 0:19DEN +14% win prob(:19) 8-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
4th · 4:34DEN +12% win prob(4:34) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at DEN 44 for -6 yards (77-Q.Jefferson).
4th · 5:31LV +11% win prob(5:31) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to 50 for 16 yards (10-D.Trufant).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Peyton Barber's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 10:26 left in the 3rd put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
3rd10:26Peyton Barber·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+713–14
4th7:40Daniel Carlson·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+313–17
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryRaiders
Broncos1–7Raiders
158Total yards346
4.0Yards per play5.5
28%Success rate49%
10%Third-down rate55%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
2Explosive plays5
6First downs21
2Sacks taken2
0Turnovers4
The read
Raiders ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.25Broncos: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.09Raiders: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.12Broncos: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.15Raiders: −0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.47Broncos: −0.47 expected points added per play
−0.04Raiders: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 40 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Raiders’s 63 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 1, Raiders 3.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.0% in week 15 against 10.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · −2.6 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Raiders12.0%
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLV's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 41.2%, 19.3 points below their season mean of 60.4% and 1.7 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%42 snaps
71Austin SchlottmannG · Every snap100%42 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%42 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%42 snaps
70Bobby MassieT · Every snap100%42 snaps
3Drew LockQB · Every snap100%42 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Full-time90%38 snaps
81Tim PatrickWR · Full-time86%36 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Heavy rotation79%33 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Heavy rotation74%31 snaps
25Melvin GordonRB · Heavy rotation55%23 snaps
33Javonte WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation52%22 snaps
85Albert OkwuegbunamTE · Rotational33%14 snaps
82Eric SaubertTE · Situational17%7 snaps
9Kendall HintonWR · Situational10%4 snaps
11Diontae SpencerWR · Situational2%1 snap
52Netane MutiG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Michael OjemudiaCBMcTelvin AgimDEJamar JohnsonFSKenny YoungILBTeddy BridgewaterQB
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass−30% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 28-J.Jacobs INTERCEPTED by 55-B.Chubb at LV 22. 55-B.Chubb to LV 1 for 21 yards (28-J.Jacobs).
Q2 0:26 · Raiders · 1st & 10 at LV 26 · gained nothing · -6.51 EP · −30.0% win probability
134 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 142 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 142 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 76 yards from the LV 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
142 of 142 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
142
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
38%
Yards
500
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.2745%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22-0.2368%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.1959%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.3560%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.060%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
142 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
142 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 42
Punt10 plays, from the Raiders 4 to the Broncos 49
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 11 to the Raiders 49
The period ended8 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 47
2nd quarter40 plays
Broncos0Raiders6
Broncos0Raiders7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 49 to the Broncos 8
Broncos3Raiders7
Field goal8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 31
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 45
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 8 to the Broncos 17
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Raiders 33 to the Raiders 40
Broncos6Raiders7
Field goal4 plays, from the Raiders 41 to the Raiders 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Broncos12Raiders7
Broncos13Raiders7
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Broncos13Raiders13
Broncos13Raiders14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 5
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 47
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Raiders 13 to the Broncos 28
No good6 plays, from the Broncos 42 to the Raiders 37
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter33 plays
Broncos13Raiders17
Field goal12 plays, from the Raiders 48 to the Broncos 14
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to midfield
The period ended11 plays, from the Raiders 11 to the Broncos 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
