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2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Detroit Lions

16

Atlanta FalconsWinner

20

ATL -7.5 no coverU 42.5 ✓

Atlanta Falcons 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 0:39, DET +48% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ATLDET
Q4 · 0:39DET ATL DET ball · 1st & 9DET 50%

(:39) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short middle intended for 11-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun [6-D.Fowler] at ATL 1. 54-F.Oluokun to ATL 7 for 6 yards.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:39DET +48% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short middle intended for 11-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun [6-D.Fowler] at ATL 1. 54-F.Oluokun to ATL 7 for 6 yards.
  2. Q4 · 2:28DET +17% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-R.Gage to ATL 32 for 4 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin). FUMBLES (44-J.Reeves-Maybin), RECOVERED by DET-31-D.Marlowe at ATL 37.
  3. Q4 · 13:10ATL +13% win prob(13:10) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-H.Hurst for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 3:54ATL +11% win prob(3:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricLionsFalcons
Offensive plays6844
Total yards338 (edge)255
Yards per play5.05.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.09 (edge)0.08
Success rate43%43% (edge)
Dropback rate51%61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.140.21 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.03 (edge)-0.12
Third downs7/16 (edge)2/8
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)1
First downs gained on snaps18 (edge)14
Sacks taken0 (edge)3
Turnovers11

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

18/24, 215 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.5 expected points added · +9.0% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Tim BoyleQB

24/34, 187 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.0 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jamaal WilliamsRB

19 att, 77 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Craig ReynoldsRB

11 att, 29 yds, 0 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Kyle PittsTE

6/6 for 102 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 11.0 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

9/11 for 91 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ATLATL 20874:01Punt
2DETDET 3813497:34Turnover on downs
3ATLATL 25541:36Punt
4DETDET 10451:32Punt
5ATLATL 4610544:24Touchdown
6DETDET 2513907:09Touchdown
7ATLATL 228432:40Turnover on downs
8DETDET 257221:04Turnover on downs
9DETDET 25571:30Punt
10ATLATL 118693:19Turnover on downs
11DETDET 2513667:05Turnover on downs
12ATLATL 2912715:02Touchdown
13DETDET 26187110:26Turnover on downs
14ATLATL 25470:20Fumble
15DETATL 376281:45Interception
16ATLATL 7100:33End of game

0 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 90 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tim Boyle24/341871101.0
Jack Fox1/1210004.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jamaal Williams19774.101.4
Craig Reynolds11292.60-3.4
Amon-Ra St. Brown2199.502.8
Kalif Raymond155.000.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown91191131%8.7
Josh Reynolds2736020%-2.5
Craig Reynolds3422011%0.8
KhaDarel Hodge112103%4.0
Tom Kennedy221606%-0.1
Kalif Raymond3512014%-4.0
Jason Cabinda22606%-0.9
Brock Wright33409%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matt Ryan18/242151038.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Mike Davis7284.00-0.3
Cordarrelle Patterson7142.01-0.0
Matt Ryan451.30-1.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Kyle Pitts66102027%11.0
Russell Gage4539023%-1.2
Olamide Zaccheaus2432018%-0.1
Hayden Hurst222119%2.5
Marvin Hall111005%1.2
Mike Davis11705%0.4
Christian Blake11505%-0.1
Cordarrelle Patterson12-109%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foyesade Oluokun760.011
Deion Jones720.001
Duron Harmon250.000
A.J. Terrell230.000
Richie Grant320.001
Brandon Copeland300.000
Jonathan Bullard120.000
Fabian Moreau120.001
Mykal Walker210.000
Darren Hall210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ATL -7.5
Closing total
42.5
DET moneyline
+309
ATL moneyline
-373

Falcons closed -7.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 36 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
DET 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Arthur Smith