2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Detroit Lions
16
Atlanta FalconsWinner
20
Atlanta Falcons 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 0:39, DET +48% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(:39) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short middle intended for 11-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun [6-D.Fowler] at ATL 1. 54-F.Oluokun to ATL 7 for 6 yards.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 0:39DET +48% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short middle intended for 11-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun [6-D.Fowler] at ATL 1. 54-F.Oluokun to ATL 7 for 6 yards.
- Q4 · 2:28DET +17% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-R.Gage to ATL 32 for 4 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin). FUMBLES (44-J.Reeves-Maybin), RECOVERED by DET-31-D.Marlowe at ATL 37.
- Q4 · 13:10ATL +13% win prob(13:10) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-H.Hurst for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 3:54ATL +11% win prob(3:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Lions | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 68 | 44 |
| Total yards | 338 (edge) | 255 |
| Yards per play | 5.0 | 5.8 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.09 (edge) | 0.08 |
| Success rate | 43% | 43% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 51% | 61% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.14 | 0.21 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.03 (edge) | -0.12 |
| Third downs | 7/16 (edge) | 2/8 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 (edge) | 1 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 18 (edge) | 14 |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 3 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · ATL
18/24, 215 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
8.5 expected points added · +9.0% completion over expected
Passing · DET
24/34, 187 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
1.0 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
9/11 for 91 yds, 1 TD
31% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | ATL 20 | 8 | 7 | 4:01 | Punt | |
| 2 | DET | DET 38 | 13 | 49 | 7:34 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | ATL | ATL 25 | 5 | 4 | 1:36 | Punt | |
| 4 | DET | DET 10 | 4 | 5 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 5 | ATL | ATL 46 | 10 | 54 | 4:24 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | DET | DET 25 | 13 | 90 | 7:09 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | ATL | ATL 22 | 8 | 43 | 2:40 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | DET | DET 25 | 7 | 22 | 1:04 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | DET | DET 25 | 5 | 7 | 1:30 | Punt | |
| 10 | ATL | ATL 11 | 8 | 69 | 3:19 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | DET | DET 25 | 13 | 66 | 7:05 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | ATL | ATL 29 | 12 | 71 | 5:02 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | DET | DET 26 | 18 | 71 | 10:26 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | ATL | ATL 25 | 4 | 7 | 0:20 | Fumble | |
| 15 | DET | ATL 37 | 6 | 28 | 1:45 | Interception | |
| 16 | ATL | ATL 7 | 1 | 0 | 0:33 | End of game |
0 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 90 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Detroit Lions
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Craig Reynolds | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 0 | -3.4 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | 2.8 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9 | 11 | 91 | 1 | 31% | 8.7 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 20% | -2.5 |
| Craig Reynolds | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 11% | 0.8 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 3% | 4.0 |
| Tom Kennedy | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | -0.1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 14% | -4.0 |
| Jason Cabinda | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | -0.9 |
| Brock Wright | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9% | -1.0 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Reeves-Maybin | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Harris | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Pittman | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tracy Walker III | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Brockers | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Harris | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brady Breeze | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Parker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Levi Onwuzurike | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Atlanta Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 18/24 | 215 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8.5 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 1 | -0.0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 | -1.6 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 6 | 6 | 102 | 0 | 27% | 11.0 |
| Russell Gage | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 23% | -1.2 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 18% | -0.1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 9% | 2.5 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 5% | 1.2 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5% | 0.4 |
| Christian Blake | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | -0.1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9% | -1.7 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 7 | 6 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Deion Jones | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Duron Harmon | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richie Grant | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Copeland | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Bullard | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fabian Moreau | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mykal Walker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darren Hall | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- ATL -7.5
- Closing total
- 42.5
- DET moneyline
- +309
- ATL moneyline
- -373
Falcons closed -7.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 36 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Roof / surface
- open · fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- —
- Referee
- Ron Torbert
- Rest
- DET 7 days · ATL 7 days
- Coaches
- Dan Campbell vs Arthur Smith