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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 16
It turned at Q4 0:39, 1st and 9, on Foyesade Oluokun — 48.3 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Atlanta Falcons 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 0:39, Falcons +48.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:39 · 1st and 9
Foyesade Oluokun
Falcons
(:39) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short middle intended for 11-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun [6-D.Fowler] at ATL 1. 54-F.Oluokun to ATL 7 for 6 yards.
48.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Lions at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Falcons at 1 chunk play.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 16 on third down, against Falcons at 2 of 8 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Lions owned this one and still lost it — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.12 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
(:39) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short middle intended for 11-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun [6-D.Fowler] at ATL 1. 54-F.Oluokun to ATL 7 for 6 yards.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Hayden Hurst's 12-yard touchdown catch with 13:10 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Hayden Hurst12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt RyanLead never changed again+713–208 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Lionscategory by categoryFalcons
Lions ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 68 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Falcons’s 44 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Lions 5, Falcons 2.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
DET's pass rate over expected, −17.4 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 3.5 points clear of the next team along.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Lions-17.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.9 vs their -5.5 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 68 snaps
Falcons2.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their -1.2 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 44 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 83%
Tendencies room →Lions45.8%leaned — ran early · −10.9 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 48 early downs
Falcons57.1%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 56.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 35 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 133%
Fourth Down room →Lions42.9%inside their normal wobble · −15.3 vs their 58.1%, and they swing ±29.0 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
Falcons—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 27%
Tendencies room →Lions14.8%inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Falcons5.7%inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±3.9 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
DET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -17.4 pts, 11.9 points below their season mean of -5.5 pts and 1.5 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · ATL
18/24, 215 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
8.5 expected points added · +9.0% completion over expected
Passing · DET
24/34, 187 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
1.0 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
9/11 for 91 yds, 1 TD
31% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Amon-Ra St. Brown banked 8.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 26.0 | +8.6 | 88% | 91% | 31% | 37% | 2 car, 19 yd · 9/11, 91 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyle PittsTE · Alpha Receiver | 16.2 | +6.2 | 78% | 85% | 27% | 43% | 6/6, 102 yd |
| Matt RyanQB · Starter QB | 13.1 | +1.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/24, 215 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 5 yd |
| Hayden HurstTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.1 | +5.1 | 48% | 52% | 9% | 9% | 2/2, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Tim BoyleQB · Starter QB | 9.5 | −2.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/34, 187 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Committee Back | 8.3 | +0.6 | 54% | 63% | 9% | 0% | 7 car, 14 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, -1 yd |
| Craig ReynoldsRB · Committee Back | 8.1 | −3.6 | 40% | 46% | 11% | 0% | 11 car, 29 yd · 3/4, 22 yd |
| Jamaal WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 7.7 | −1.7 | 42% | 26% | 0% | — | 19 car, 77 yd |
| Russell GageWR · Featured Receiver | 5.9 | −2.5 | 87% | 85% | 23% | 22% | 4/5, 39 yd |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Featured Receiver | 5.6 | −6.0 | 79% | 91% | 20% | 36% | 2/7, 36 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Featured Receiver | 5.2 | −0.9 | 87% | 85% | 18% | 15% | 2/4, 32 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −4.0 | 69% | 80% | 14% | 15% | 1 car, 5 yd · 3/5, 12 yd |
| Mike DavisRB · Committee Back | 4.5 | −0.6 | 57% | 56% | 5% | 0% | 7 car, 28 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Tom KennedyWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +0.8 | 31% | 37% | 6% | 6% | 2/2, 16 yd |
| Brock WrightTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −0.8 | 73% | 57% | 9% | 0% | 3/3, 4 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +1.7 | 12% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 21 yd |
| Jason CabindaRB | 2.6 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Marvin HallWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Christian BlakeWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 26% | 26% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Keith SmithRB | 0.0 | — | 26% | 19% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Godwin IgwebuikeRB | 0.0 | — | 15% | 31% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Shane ZylstraTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:39) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short middle intended for 11-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun [6-D.Fowler] at ATL 1. 54-F.Oluokun to ATL 7 for 6 yards.
Q4 0:39 · Lions · 1st & goal at ATL 9 · gained nothing · -4.88 EP · −54.9% win probability
143 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 154 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 80 yards from the DET 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Lions3
Falcons0Lions3Falcons6Lions3Falcons7Lions9Falcons7Lions10Falcons7Lions10Falcons10Lions10Falcons13Lions13Falcons13Lions13Falcons19Lions13Falcons20Lions16Falcons20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Lions at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Craig Reynolds | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 0 | −3.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9 | 11 | 91 | 1 | 31% | +8.7 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Reeves-Maybin | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Harris | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Pittman |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 18/24 | 215 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +8.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_16_DET_ATL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Falcons closed -7.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 36 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | +2.8 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| 20% |
| −2.5 |
| Craig Reynolds | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 11% | +0.8 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 3% | +4.0 |
| Tom Kennedy | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | −0.1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 14% | −4.0 |
| Jason Cabinda | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | −0.9 |
| Brock Wright | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9% | −1.0 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tracy Walker III | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Brockers | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Harris | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brady Breeze | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Parker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Levi Onwuzurike | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 1 | −0.0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 6 | 6 | 102 | 0 | 27% | +11.0 |
| Russell Gage | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 23% | −1.2 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 18% | −0.1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 9% | +2.5 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 5% | +1.2 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| Christian Blake | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −0.1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9% | −1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 7 | 6 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Deion Jones | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Duron Harmon | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richie Grant | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Copeland | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Bullard | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fabian Moreau | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mykal Walker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darren Hall | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
