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Atlanta Falcons 20, Lions 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:39, 1st and 9, on Foyesade Oluokun — 48.3 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:39 · 1st and 9
Foyesade Oluokun
Falcons
(:39) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short middle intended for 11-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun [6-D.Fowler] at ATL 1. 54-F.Oluokun to ATL 7 for 6 yards.
Falcons closed -7.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Atlanta Falcons 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 0:39, Falcons +48.3% win probability on one snap.
48.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Hayden HurstFalconsQ4 13:10(13:10) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-H.Hurst for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.0pts
Russell GageLionsQ4 2:28(2:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-R.Gage to ATL 32 for 4 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin). FUMBLES (44-J.Reeves-Maybin), RECOVERED by DET-31-D.Marlowe at ATL 37.
16.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Lions at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Falcons at 1 chunk play.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 16 on third down, against Falcons at 2 of 8 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Lions owned this one and still lost it — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.12 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Lions145 of 154 plays carry both curves
(:39) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short middle intended for 11-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun [6-D.Fowler] at ATL 1. 54-F.Oluokun to ATL 7 for 6 yards.
Swing +48.3 for FalconsExpected points +4.88 for FalconsThe model had Lions 10 points higher than the market did.play 152
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:39DET +48% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short middle intended for 11-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun [6-D.Fowler] at ATL 1. 54-F.Oluokun to ATL 7 for 6 yards.
4th · 2:28DET +17% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-R.Gage to ATL 32 for 4 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin). FUMBLES (44-J.Reeves-Maybin), RECOVERED by DET-31-D.Marlowe at ATL 37.
4th · 13:10ATL +13% win prob(13:10) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-H.Hurst for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:54ATL +11% win prob(3:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:00ATL +11% win prob(11:00) 84-C.Patterson left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:31ATL +11% win prob(5:31) (Punt formation) 3-J.Fox pass short right to 18-K.Hodge to ATL 24 for 21 yards (34-D.Hall; 35-A.Williams).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Hayden Hurst's 12-yard touchdown catch with 13:10 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st3:28Riley Patterson·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+33–0
2nd3:54Amon-Ra St. Brown·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Tim Boylefrom Tim Boyle+710–7
2nd1:09Younghoe Koo·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.Harris+310–10
3rd10:15Younghoe Koo·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.Harris+310–13
3rd3:11Riley Patterson·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+313–13
4th13:10Hayden Hurst·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt RyanLead never changed again+713–20
4th2:42Riley Patterson·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+316–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryFalcons
Lions5–3Falcons
338Total yards255
5.0Yards per play5.8
43%Success rate43%
44%Third-down rate25%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays1
18First downs14
0Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Lions ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Lions: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.08Falcons: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Lions: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.21Falcons: +0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Lions: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.12Falcons: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 68 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Falcons’s 44 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Lions 5, Falcons 2.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
DET's pass rate over expected, −17.4 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 3.5 points clear of the next team along.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Falcons5.7%
inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±3.9 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -17.4 pts, 11.9 points below their season mean of -5.5 pts and 1.5 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Boyle pass−55% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:39) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short middle intended for 11-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun [6-D.Fowler] at ATL 1. 54-F.Oluokun to ATL 7 for 6 yards.
Q4 0:39 · Lions · 1st & goal at ATL 9 · gained nothing · -4.88 EP · −54.9% win probability
143 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 154 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 80 yards from the DET 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
154 of 154 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
154
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
40%
Yards
592
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.1950%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.1463%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.2542%
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR12+0.30100%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR10+0.1070%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.4114%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+1.7380%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Falcons 35
Lions3Falcons0
Field goal14 plays, from the Lions 38 to the Falcons 8
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 29
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Lions 15
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
Lions3Falcons6
Lions3Falcons7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 45 to the Lions 6
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end, one receiver, one punter, three linebackers, one long snapper and two backsDefense on the fieldThree linebackers and five backsPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Lions9Falcons7
Lions10Falcons7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Falcons 20
Lions10Falcons10
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 22 to the Lions 35
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 47
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Lions10Falcons13
Field goal9 plays, from the Falcons 11 to the Lions 30
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Lions13Falcons13
Field goal15 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Falcons 13
The period ended8 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Lions 49
4th quarter40 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Lions13Falcons19
Lions13Falcons20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Lions 12
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Lions16Falcons20
Field goal19 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Falcons 5
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Falcons 37 to the Falcons 9
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
