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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Colts167 of 177 plays carry both curves
(11:12) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-R.Winslow.
Swing −20.0 for CardinalsExpected points −3.77 for CardinalsModel and market agree here.play 133
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 11:12IND +20% win prob(11:12) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-R.Winslow.
4th · 13:10ARI +18% win prob(13:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green to IND 30 for 33 yards (27-X.Rhodes).
3rd · 4:02ARI +13% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox to ARI 32 for 37 yards (3-B.Baker).
3rd · 5:45IND +13% win prob(5:45) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman.
2nd · 10:14IND +12% win prob(10:14) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 86-Z.Ertz ran ob at IND 17 for 16 yards. Indianapolis challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 86-Z.Ertz.
4th · 8:51ARI +12% win prob(8:51) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton pushed ob at ARI 15 for 39 yards (3-B.Baker).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Michael Badgley's 37-yard field goal with 0:07 left in the 3rd put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th0:46Matt Prater·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder R.Winslow · snap A.Brewer+322–16
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryCardinals
Colts3–6Cardinals
347Total yards378
5.6Yards per play5.9
35%Success rate47%
53%Third-down rate46%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays6
16First downs20
2Sacks taken0
1Turnovers0
The read
Cardinals ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Colts: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.06Cardinals: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.33Colts: +0.33 expected points added per play
−0.07Cardinals: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Colts: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.34Cardinals: +0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 62 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 64 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Colts 4, Cardinals 3.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 2.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 6.7% in week 3.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.8 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.70× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Cardinals22.6%
leaned — got home · +6.2 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+1.26× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 12.8 points below their season mean of 12.8% and 1.7 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
63Danny PinterG · Every snap100%70 snaps
69Matt PryorT · Every snap100%70 snaps
72Braden SmithT · Every snap100%70 snaps
2Carson WentzQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time97%68 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Full-time90%63 snaps
62Chris ReedG · Full-time84%59 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Heavy rotation79%55 snaps
—Julién DavenportT · Heavy rotation74%52 snaps
13T.Y. HiltonWR · Heavy rotation67%47 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Rotational46%32 snaps
15Keke CouteeWR · Rotational41%29 snaps
16Ashton DulinWR · Rotational40%28 snaps
79Eric FisherT · Rotational29%20 snaps
21Nyheim HinesRB · Rotational26%18 snaps
75Will FriesG · Situational17%12 snaps
10Dezmon PatmonWR · Situational7%5 snaps
84Jack DoyleTE · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Ryan KellyCAndrew SendejoFSDarius LeonardMLBMarlon MackRBKhari WillisSSMike StrachanWRZach PascalWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Brian PooleCBCarter O'DonnellGSam EhlingerQBJulien DavenportT
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Matt Prater−19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:12) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-R.Winslow.
Q4 11:12 · Cardinals · 4th & 3 at IND 23 · gained nothing · -3.77 EP · −19.3% win probability
165 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 90 yards from the ARI 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
38%
Yards
724
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.0074%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.2061%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.2827%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.2760%
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
No good14 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Colts 33
Colts6Cardinals0
Colts7Cardinals0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 41 to the Cardinals 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Colts7Cardinals6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Colts 2
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Cardinals 35
2nd quarter43 plays
No good3 plays, from the Cardinals 37 to the Cardinals 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Cardinals 43 to the Colts 29
Punt10 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Cardinals 45
Colts9Cardinals6
Drive ended3 plays, from the Cardinals 8 to the Cardinals 11
Colts12Cardinals6
Field goal17 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Cardinals 13
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Cardinals 49
Colts12Cardinals12
Colts12Cardinals13
Touchdown4 plays, from the Colts 42 to the Colts 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Cardinals 35
Punt4 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Colts15Cardinals13
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Cardinals 18
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter54 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.7 seconds
No good10 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Colts 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.8 seconds
Colts21Cardinals13
Colts22Cardinals13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 31 to the Cardinals 13
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Cardinals 43
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 42 to the Cardinals 41
Colts22Cardinals16
Field goal19 plays, from the Cardinals 9 to the Colts 10
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
