2021 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 25, 2021 · State Farm Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

Arizona Cardinals

ARI -3 upsetU 48 ✓DomeCardinals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Indianapolis Colts 22–16. Biggest swing: Q4 11:12, IND +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 11:12IND — ARI ARI ball · 4th & 3ARI 54%

(11:12) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-R.Winslow.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 11:12IND +20% win prob(11:12) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-R.Winslow.
Q4 · 13:10ARI +18% win prob(13:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green to IND 30 for 33 yards (27-X.Rhodes).
Q3 · 4:02ARI +13% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox to ARI 32 for 37 yards (3-B.Baker).
Q3 · 5:45IND +13% win prob(5:45) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Cardinals
Offensive plays	62	64
Total yards	347	378 (edge)
Yards per play	5.6	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.07 (edge)	0.06
Success rate	35%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	50%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.33 (edge)	-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18	0.34 (edge)
Third downs	8/15 (edge)	6/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	16	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

27/43, 245 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-3.8 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Carson WentzQB

18/28, 225 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.0 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

27 att, 108 yds, 0 TD

-5.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Chase EdmondsRB

16 att, 56 yds, 1 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

8/12 for 82 yds, 0 TD

43% of team targets · 0.8 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Chase EdmondsRB

8/9 for 71 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 20	13	52	5:20	Turnover on downs
2	IND	IND 41	7	59	3:29	Touchdown
3	ARI	ARI 10	9	90	3:08	Touchdown
4	IND	IND 25	9	30	3:53	Turnover on downs
5	ARI	ARI 43	7	28	4:01	Turnover on downs
6	IND	IND 34	7	24	4:19	Fumble
7	ARI	ARI 8	3	3	1:30	Turnover on downs
8	IND	IND 32	11	53	4:19	Turnover on downs
9	ARI	—	1	0	0:01	End of half
10	IND	IND 25	8	6	2:45	Punt
11	ARI	IND 42	4	42	1:22	Touchdown
12	IND	IND 25	10	39	5:11	Turnover on downs
13	ARI	ARI 36	4	0	0:21	Punt
14	IND	IND 25	10	56	5:18	Turnover on downs
15	ARI	ARI 25	12	52	3:56	Turnover on downs
16	IND	IND 31	8	79	4:30	Touchdown
17	ARI	ARI 28	6	15	1:18	Turnover on downs
18	IND	ARI 42	4	1	1:03	Punt
19	ARI	ARI 9	16	96	3:34	Turnover on downs
20	IND	ARI 45	2	0	0:42	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 96 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	18/28	225	2	0	2	9.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	27	108	4.0	-5.2
Nyheim Miller-Hines	3	11	3.7	-0.3
Carson Wentz	2	4	2.0	-1.2
Michael Pittman	1	3	3.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	8	12	82	0	43%	0.8
T.Y. Hilton	4	5	51	1	18%	4.2
Mo Alie-Cox	2	4	42	0	14%	2.3
Ashton Dulin	1	2	23	0	7%	2.0
Dezmon Patmon	1	1	14	1	4%	3.2
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	1	7	0	4%	0.1
Kylen Granson	1	1	6	0	4%	-0.0
Jonathan Taylor	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
George Odum	7	1	1
E.J. Speed	7	1	1
Bobby Okereke	5	3	0
Jahleel Addae	4	2	0
Isaiah Rodgers	4	1	1
Xavier Rhodes	4	0	0
Al-Quadin Muhammad	2	1	0
Kenny Moore	2	1	0
Zaire Franklin	3	0	0
DeForest Buckner	1	1	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	27/43	245	1	0	0	-3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kyler Murray	4	74	18.5	0	4.4
Chase Edmonds	16	56	3.5	1	0.9
Jonathan Ward	1	3	3.0	0	2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chase Edmonds	8	9	71	0	23%	2.5
Zach Ertz	8	13	54	0	33%	-2.6
Christian Kirk	7	9	48	0	23%	0.5
A.J. Green	1	3	33	0	8%	-0.5
Antoine Wesley	2	4	29	1	10%	0.2
Demetrius Harris	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Budda Baker	7	6	1.0	1
Antonio Hamilton	5	1	0.0	1
Jalen Thompson	3	2	0.0	0
Leki Fotu	2	3	0.0	0
Joe Walker	1	3	0.0	0
Byron Murphy	3	1	0.0	0
Jordan Hicks	2	2	0.0	0
Corey Peters	1	2	0.0	0
Chandler Jones	1	2	0.0	0
Devon Kennard	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -3
Closing total: 48
IND moneyline: +143
ARI moneyline: -161

Cardinals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 38 — under by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: IND 6 days · ARI 6 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Kliff Kingsbury