For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Jaguars162 of 173 plays carry both curves
(:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Jones (40-J.Guidry). Penalty on JAX, Illegal Shift, declined.
Swing +29.6 for JetsExpected points +3.16 for JetsThe model had Jaguars 6 points higher than the market did.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:12JAX +30% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Jones (40-J.Guidry). Penalty on JAX, Illegal Shift, declined.
4th · 0:41NYJ +20% win prob(:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end ran ob at NYJ 5 for 26 yards (26-B.Echols).
2nd · 13:08NYJ +20% win prob9-L.Cooke kicks 67 yards from JAX 35 to NYJ -2. 10-B.Berrios for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 7:15JAX +19% win prob(7:15) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 28 for -19 yards (57-C.Mosley). FUMBLES (57-C.Mosley) [57-C.Mosley], RECOVERED by NYJ-54-R.Blair at JAX 19. 54-R.Blair to JAX 13 for 6 yards (65-B.Linder).
1st · 4:08NYJ +16% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson scrambles right end for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:04NYJ +14% win prob(3:04) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 10-B.Berrios to JAX 45 for 12 yards (38-A.Cisco; 32-T.Campbell).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Braxton Berrios's 102-yard return touchdown with 13:08 left in the 2nd put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:15Matthew Wright·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+33–0
1st4:08Zach Wilson·52-yd TD run52-yard rushing touchdownkick blocked by A.Gotsis+63–6
2nd13:16Will Richardson·TD runrushing touchdowntwo-point no good+69–6
2nd13:08Braxton Berrios·102-yd return TD102-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kickLead never changed again+79–13
2nd8:19Matthew Wright·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+312–13
3rd9:51Eddy Pineiro·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+312–16
3rd0:29Matthew Wright·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+315–16
4th5:28Dare Ogunbowale·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+621–23
4th1:49C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 15-E.Pineiro·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+321–26
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryJets
Jaguars4–3Jets
385Total yards373
5.4Yards per play6.3
52%Success rate49%
50%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays10
25First downs18
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Jaguars ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jets, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Jaguars: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.15Jets: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Jaguars: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.32Jets: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Jaguars: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.01Jets: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 71 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Jets’s 59 at 44%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 4, Jets 6.
NoteJaguars outgained Jets 385-373 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYJ's early-down pass rate, 28.6%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 7.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 39.1% in week 12.
2.5 times their own weekly swing below their number.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Jets9.3%
inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 30.6 points below their season mean of 59.1% and 2.5 times their own 12.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 2 inactive · 2 never used
75Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%73 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%73 snaps
68Andrew NorwellG · Every snap100%73 snaps
65Brandon LinderG · Every snap100%73 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
76Will RichardsonT · Full-time92%67 snaps
18Laquon TreadwellWR · Full-time88%64 snaps
33Dare OgunbowaleRB · Full-time82%60 snaps
11Marvin JonesWR · Full-time82%60 snaps
7Tavon AustinWR · Heavy rotation59%43 snaps
80James O'ShaughnessyTE · Heavy rotation58%42 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Lawrence pass−34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Jones (40-J.Guidry). Penalty on JAX, Illegal Shift, declined.
Q4 0:12 · Jaguars · 4th & goal at NYJ 1 · gained nothing · -3.16 EP · −33.8% win probability
160 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 91 yards from the NYJ 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
48%
Yards
757
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.2163%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.1045%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.4456%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.0145%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.7550%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.590%
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Jets0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Jets3 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Jaguars3Jets0
Field goal14 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jets 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
Jaguars3Jets6
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 9 to the Jets 48
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
The period ended10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jets 39
2nd quarter51 plays
Jaguars9Jets6
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Jets 3
Jaguars9Jets12
Jaguars9Jets13
Touchdown2 plays
Jaguars12Jets13
Field goal12 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jets 27
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 39 to the Jets 40
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 9 to the Jaguars 25
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.5 seconds
Turnover on downs18 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Jaguars 2
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Jaguars12Jets16
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Jaguars 24
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Jaguars 24 to the Jaguars 47
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Jaguars 13 to the Jaguars 6
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.5 seconds
Jaguars15Jets16
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 4 to the Jets 21
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter53 plays
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
Jaguars15Jets22
Jaguars15Jets23
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Jaguars 1
Jaguars21Jets23
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jets 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Jaguars21Jets26
Field goal15 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Jaguars 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jets 1
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
