2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · MetLife Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

New York JetsWinner

NYJ -2.5 ✓O 42.5 ✓Jets closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.

New York Jets 26–21. Biggest swing: Q4 0:12, JAX +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:12JAX — NYJ JAX ball · 4th & 1NYJ 69%

(:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Jones (40-J.Guidry). Penalty on JAX, Illegal Shift, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:12JAX +30% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Jones (40-J.Guidry). Penalty on JAX, Illegal Shift, declined.
Q4 · 0:41NYJ +20% win prob(:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end ran ob at NYJ 5 for 26 yards (26-B.Echols).
Q2 · 13:08NYJ +20% win prob9-L.Cooke kicks 67 yards from JAX 35 to NYJ -2. 10-B.Berrios for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 7:15JAX +19% win prob(7:15) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 28 for -19 yards (57-C.Mosley). FUMBLES (57-C.Mosley) [57-C.Mosley], RECOVERED by NYJ-54-R.Blair at JAX 19. 54-R.Blair to JAX 13 for 6 yards (65-B.Linder).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Jets
Offensive plays	71	59
Total yards	385 (edge)	373
Yards per play	5.4	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.09	0.15 (edge)
Success rate	52% (edge)	49%
Dropback rate	61%	44%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14	0.32 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02 (edge)	0.01
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Jaguars outgained Jets 385–373 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

26/39, 280 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

2.9 expected points added · +11.1% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

14/22, 102 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.8 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Michael CarterRB

16 att, 118 yds, 0 TD

4.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Dare OgunbowaleRB

17 att, 57 yds, 1 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Marvin JonesWR

8/13 for 74 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · 0.9 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Tavon AustinWR

6/7 for 68 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	13	38	6:48	Turnover on downs
2	NYJ	NYJ 9	10	91	4:18	Touchdown
3	JAX	JAX 25	14	74	5:46	Turnover on downs
4	NYJ	—	2	0	0:11	Defensive touchdown
5	JAX	JAX 25	12	48	4:42	Turnover on downs
6	NYJ	NYJ 39	5	1	1:05	Punt
7	JAX	JAX 9	5	11	2:01	Punt
8	NYJ	NYJ 28	15	70	4:59	Turnover on downs
9	JAX	JAX 2	1	0	0:10	End of half
10	NYJ	NYJ 28	10	48	5:13	Turnover on downs
11	JAX	JAX 24	6	-5	2:42	Fumble
12	NYJ	JAX 13	4	9	2:01	Turnover on downs
13	JAX	JAX 4	10	80	4:39	Turnover on downs
14	NYJ	NYJ 20	13	80	6:09	Touchdown
15	JAX	JAX 25	10	65	3:51	Touchdown
16	NYJ	NYJ 32	11	72	3:38	Turnover on downs
17	JAX	JAX 25	12	74	1:39	Turnover on downs
18	NYJ	NYJ 1	1	2	0:08	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 91 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	26/39	280	0	0	1	2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dare Ogunbowale	17	57	3.4	1	-2.9
Trevor Lawrence	6	37	6.2	0	2.5
Tavon Austin	3	21	7.0	0	1.6
James Robinson	3	10	3.3	0	-1.5
Andrew Wingard	1	4	4.0	0	2.8
Nathan Cottrell	1	3	3.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Jones	8	13	74	37%	0.9
Tavon Austin	6	7	68	20%	2.8
Laquon Treadwell	4	5	54	14%	5.8
James O'Shaughnessy	4	4	49	11%	3.8
Jacob Hollister	2	2	20	6%	0.6
Dare Ogunbowale	2	4	15	11%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Chapelle Russell	5	2	0.0	0
Tyson Campbell	4	3	0.0	0
Daniel Thomas	4	2	0.0	0
Davon Hamilton	2	3	0.0	0
Andre Cisco	2	3	0.0	1
Damien Wilson	3	2	0.0	1
Jihad Ward	2	3	1.0	0
Andrew Wingard	3	1	0.0	0
Shaquille Quarterman	2	2	0.0	0
Roy Robertson-Harris	1	3	0.0	1

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	14/22	102	1	0	1	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Michael Carter	16	118	7.4	0	4.5
Zach Wilson	4	91	22.8	1	9.2
Tevin Coleman	14	57	4.1	0	-1.4
Braden Mann	1	4	4.0	0	-2.6
Braxton Berrios	1	3	3.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Braxton Berrios	5	6	37	0	29%	5.0
Tyler Kroft	3	5	29	0	24%	-1.4
Keelan Cole	2	2	25	0	10%	2.1
Michael Carter	2	3	6	0	14%	-0.8
Tevin Coleman	1	1	4	0	5%	-0.2
Conor McDermott	1	1	1	1	5%	2.5
Jeff Smith	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.5
Denzel Mims	0	2	0	0	10%	-3.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
C.J. Mosley	6	4	1.0	0
Jarrad Davis	5	2	0.0	0
Javelin Guidry	4	2	0.0	1
Bryce Hall	5	1	0.0	1
Quincy Williams	4	1	0.0	0
Brandin Echols	2	3	0.0	0
Will Parks	4	1	0.0	1
Jason Pinnock	2	2	0.0	1
Bryce Huff	1	2	0.0	0
Del'Shawn Phillips	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NYJ -2.5
Closing total: 42.5
JAX moneyline: +114
NYJ moneyline: -125

Jets closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 47 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 47°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: JAX 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Darrell Bevell vs Robert Saleh