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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · NRG Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 16
It turned at Q4 12:56, 1st and 10, on Justin Jackson — 25.3 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:56 · 1st and 10
Justin Jackson
Texans
(12:56) 22-J.Jackson up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (55-D.Walker). FUMBLES (55-D.Walker), RECOVERED by HOU-36-J.Owens at HOU 47. 36-J.Owens to LAC 47 for 6 yards (82-S.Anderson).
Houston Texans 41–29. Biggest swing: Q4 12:56, Texans +25.3% win probability on one snap.
25.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Chargers at 3 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Texans won this one — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.33 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Chargers at 5 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 26.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 48 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(12:56) 22-J.Jackson up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (55-D.Walker). FUMBLES (55-D.Walker), RECOVERED by HOU-36-J.Owens at HOU 47. 36-J.Owens to LAC 47 for 6 yards (82-S.Anderson).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chris Conley's 41-yard touchdown catch with 0:33 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Chris Conley41-yd TD catch41-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis MillsLead never changed again+712–1713 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryTexans
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Texans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 60 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Texans’s 63 at 44%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Texans 5.
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers2.2 ptsright on their number · −1.7 vs their 3.9 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 57 snaps
Texans-13.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.2 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 88%
Tendencies room →Chargers66.7%inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 61.5%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 48 early downs
Texans36.0%leaned — ran early · −17.6 vs their 53.6%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−1.56× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21% to 130%
Fourth Down room →Chargers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 54.3%.
Texans—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 30%
Tendencies room →Chargers7.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.8 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Texans2.4%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.5 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.64× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
HOU's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.4%, 9.5 points below their season mean of 11.8% and 1.6 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 3 never used
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
27/35, 336 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
9.1 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
21/27, 254 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
16.0 expected points added · +7.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Justin Jackson banked 13.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin JacksonRB · Committee Back | 34.2 | +13.7 | 73% | 64% | 26% | 7% | 11 car, 64 yd, 2 TD · 8/9, 98 yd |
| Rex BurkheadRB · Bell Cow Back | 28.9 | +8.2 | 62% | 68% | 7% | 0% | 22 car, 149 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 0 yd |
| Davis MillsQB · Starter QB | 18.1 | +7.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/27, 254 yd, 2 TD · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 16.9 | −6.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/35, 336 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 15 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.3 | +1.9 | 97% | 88% | 18% | 24% | 5/6, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Chris ConleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.0 | +9.8 | 74% | 86% | 11% | 22% | 3/3, 60 yd, 1 TD |
| Nico CollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.3 | +5.7 | 66% | 75% | 15% | 10% | 3/4, 33 yd, 1 TD |
| Brevin JordanTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.6 | +3.6 | 47% | 61% | 15% | 9% | 4/4, 56 yd |
| Jared CookTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.4 | +0.6 | 63% | 60% | 15% | 16% | 3/5, 44 yd |
| Jason MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | 0.0 | 73% | 69% | 12% | 24% | 3/4, 56 yd |
| Phillip DorsettWR · Featured Receiver | 8.5 | −3.2 | 34% | 57% | 22% | 47% | 3/6, 55 yd |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.0 | +1.6 | 46% | 36% | 15% | 4% | 4/4, 40 yd |
| Keenan AllenWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | −1.8 | 89% | 74% | 18% | 17% | 4/6, 35 yd |
| Stephen AndersonTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +2.1 | 35% | 26% | 6% | 9% | 2/2, 34 yd |
| Royce FreemanRB | 3.4 | −2.6 | 35% | 29% | 0% | — | 12 car, 34 yd |
| Joshua KelleyRB | 3.1 | −2.0 | 27% | 26% | 3% | 2% | 5 car, 7 yd · 1/1, 14 yd |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −1.4 | 68% | 50% | 11% | 9% | 2/3, 10 yd |
| Tre' McKittyTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.9 | 24% | 21% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Maurice FfrenchWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.3 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jaylen SamuelsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jalen CampWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 32% | 18% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Michael BandyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | 24% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:07) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 36-J.Owens at HOU -1. 36-J.Owens to HOU 6 for 7 yards (5-J.Palmer).
Q2 4:07 · Chargers · 1st & 10 at HOU 39 · gained nothing · -3.46 EP · −13.7% win probability
160 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
12 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 94 yards from the HOU 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chargers3
Texans0Chargers3Texans6Chargers3Texans7Chargers6Texans7Chargers12Texans7Chargers12Texans10Chargers12Texans16Chargers12Texans17Chargers15Texans17Chargers15Texans23Chargers15Texans24Chargers15Texans27Chargers21Texans27Chargers23Texans27Chargers23Texans33Chargers23Texans34Chargers23Texans40Chargers23Texans41Chargers29Texans41Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 27/35 | 336 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +9.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jackson | 11 | 64 | 5.8 | 2 | −2.3 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Joshua Kelley | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jackson | 8 | 9 | 98 | 0 | 26% | +6.1 |
| Jason Moore | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 | 12% | +2.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyzir White | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Covington | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Breiden Fehoko | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alohi Gilman |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 21/27 | 254 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +16.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_16_LAC_HOU
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -13.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 70 — over by 24.0.
Conditions and crew
| Maurice Ffrench | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 15% | −6.4 |
| Josh Palmer | 5 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 18% | +0.7 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 18% | +1.9 |
| Stephen Anderson | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 6% | +2.8 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +1.9 |
| Tre' McKitty | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Davontae Harris | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Tillery | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nasir Adderley | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asante Samuel | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Amen Ogbongbemiga | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 |
| 149 |
| 6.8 |
| 2 |
| +9.1 |
| Royce Freeman | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 | −5.6 |
| Tremon Smith | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Davis Mills | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Conley | 3 | 3 | 60 | 1 | 11% | +5.3 |
| Brevin Jordan | 4 | 4 | 56 | 0 | 15% | +7.4 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 6 | 55 | 0 | 22% | −0.1 |
| Chris Moore | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 15% | +1.6 |
| Nico Collins | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 | 15% | +5.4 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 11% | −0.4 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −0.1 |
| Jordan Akins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neville Hewitt | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Desmond King | 10 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Reid | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jonathan Owens | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Garret Wallow | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremon Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirksey | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Dwumfour | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Smith | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
