2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · NRG Stadium

Los Angeles Chargers

Houston TexansWinner

LAC -13.5 upsetO 46 ✓DomeChargers closed -13.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Houston Texans 41–29. Biggest swing: Q4 12:56, LAC +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 12:56LAC — HOU LAC ball · 1st & 10HOU 57%

(12:56) 22-J.Jackson up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (55-D.Walker). FUMBLES (55-D.Walker), RECOVERED by HOU-36-J.Owens at HOU 47. 36-J.Owens to LAC 47 for 6 yards (82-S.Anderson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 12:56LAC +25% win prob(12:56) 22-J.Jackson up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (55-D.Walker). FUMBLES (55-D.Walker), RECOVERED by HOU-36-J.Owens at HOU 47. 36-J.Owens to LAC 47 for 6 yards (82-S.Anderson).
Q3 · 11:12LAC +16% win prob(11:12) 16-D.Eberle 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Q2 · 0:33HOU +15% win prob(:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 18-C.Conley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 2:09HOU +15% win prob(2:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 9-B.Jordan to LAC 20 for 27 yards (32-A.Gilman).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Texans
Offensive plays	60	63
Total yards	419	438 (edge)
Yards per play	7.0 (edge)	7.0
Expected points added / play	0.05	0.31 (edge)
Success rate	58% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	70%	44%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21	0.57 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.33	0.11 (edge)
Third downs	6/9	9/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

27/35, 336 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

9.1 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

21/27, 254 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

16.0 expected points added · +7.6% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Rex BurkheadRB

22 att, 149 yds, 2 TD

9.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Justin JacksonRB

11 att, 64 yds, 2 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Justin JacksonRB

8/9 for 98 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Chris ConleyWR

3/3 for 60 yds, 1 TD

11% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 25	9	38	4:05	Turnover on downs
2	HOU	HOU 25	10	66	4:30	Touchdown
3	LAC	LAC 18	10	64	4:28	Turnover on downs
4	HOU	HOU 25	5	-8	2:04	Punt
5	LAC	LAC 30	8	65	3:38	Touchdown
6	HOU	HOU 25	13	52	6:04	Turnover on downs
7	LAC	LAC 36	4	25	1:14	Interception
8	HOU	HOU 6	8	94	3:30	Touchdown
9	LAC	LAC 24	2	4	0:27	End of half
10	HOU	HOU 25	9	52	3:53	Turnover on downs
11	LAC	LAC 42	11	46	5:25	Turnover on downs
12	HOU	HOU 25	15	70	7:05	Touchdown
13	LAC	LAC 32	3	18	0:49	Fumble
14	HOU	LAC 47	8	40	3:54	Turnover on downs
15	LAC	LAC 25	11	72	3:04	Touchdown
16	HOU	HOU 28	9	72	3:18	Touchdown
17	LAC	LAC 26	5	12	0:43	Defensive touchdown
18	LAC	LAC 25	8	75	1:15	Touchdown
19	HOU	LAC 49	2	0	0:34	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 94 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	27/35	336	1	2	1	9.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Justin Jackson	11	64	5.8	2	-2.3
Justin Herbert	4	15	3.8	0	-0.2
Joshua Kelley	5	7	1.4	0	-3.3
Maurice Ffrench	1	3	3.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jackson	8	9	98	0	26%	6.1
Jason Moore	3	4	56	0	12%	2.6
Jared Cook	3	5	44	0	15%	-6.4
Josh Palmer	5	6	43	1	18%	0.7
Keenan Allen	4	6	35	0	18%	1.9
Stephen Anderson	2	2	34	0	6%	2.8
Joshua Kelley	1	1	14	0	3%	1.9
Tre' McKitty	1	1	12	0	3%	1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kyzir White	6	5	0.0	0
Christian Covington	2	7	0.0	0
Breiden Fehoko	2	3	0.0	0
Alohi Gilman	5	0	0.0	0
Davontae Harris	3	1	0.0	0
Drue Tranquill	4	0	0.0	0
Jerry Tillery	2	2	1.0	0
Nasir Adderley	2	1	0.0	0
Asante Samuel	3	0	0.0	2
Amen Ogbongbemiga	3	0	0.0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	21/27	254	2	0	1	16.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rex Burkhead	22	149	6.8	2	9.1
Royce Freeman	12	34	2.8	0	-5.6
Tremon Smith	1	7	7.0	0	0.2
Davis Mills	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Conley	3	3	60	1	11%	5.3
Brevin Jordan	4	4	56	0	15%	7.4
Phillip Dorsett	3	6	55	0	22%	-0.1
Chris Moore	4	4	40	0	15%	1.6
Nico Collins	3	4	33	1	15%	5.4
Pharaoh Brown	2	3	10	0	11%	-0.4
Rex Burkhead	2	2	0	0	7%	-0.1
Jordan Akins	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Neville Hewitt	8	3	0.0	0	0
Desmond King	10	0	0.0	0	1
Justin Reid	3	4	0.0	0	0
Tavierre Thomas	5	2	0.0	1	1
Jonathan Owens	1	3	0.0	1	1
Garret Wallow	2	2	0.0	0	0
Tremon Smith	2	1	0.0	0	0
Christian Kirksey	2	1	0.0	0	0
Michael Dwumfour	1	1	0.5	0	0
Chris Smith	1	1	0.5	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -13.5
Closing total: 46
LAC moneyline: -661
HOU moneyline: +500

Chargers closed -13.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 70 — over by 24.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: LAC 10 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Brandon Staley vs David Culley