2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Minnesota Vikings

LA -3.5 ✓O 48.5 ✓DomeRams closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Los Angeles Rams 30–23. Biggest swing: Q3 11:13, LA +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 11:13LA — MIN LA ball · 2nd & 10LA 88%

(11:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 89-T.Higbee INTERCEPTED by 55-A.Barr (94-D.Tomlinson) at LA 10. 55-A.Barr to LA 2 for 8 yards (63-A.Corbett).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 11:13LA +12% win prob(11:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 89-T.Higbee INTERCEPTED by 55-A.Barr (94-D.Tomlinson) at LA 10. 55-A.Barr to LA 2 for 8 yards (63-A.Corbett).
Q3 · 7:22LA +11% win prob(7:22) 3-J.Berry punts 40 yards to LA 39, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-B.Powell for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-22-H.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q2 · 4:11LA +6% win prob(4:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 25-S.Michel INTERCEPTED by 55-A.Barr at LA 14. 55-A.Barr to LA 11 for 3 yards (25-S.Michel).
Q1 · 0:17LA +5% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 17-K.Osborn INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Howard (11-D.Williams) at LA -2. 32-T.Howard pushed ob at LA 17 for 19 yards (17-K.Osborn).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Vikings
Offensive plays	69	62
Total yards	357	361 (edge)
Yards per play	5.2	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.04 (edge)	-0.06
Success rate	46% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	55%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	0.06 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	-0.32
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	2/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

27/38, 315 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.1 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

21/37, 197 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-9.8 expected points added · -10.1% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Sony MichelRB

27 att, 131 yds, 1 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Alexander MattisonRB

13 att, 41 yds, 1 TD

-3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

8/12 for 116 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

10/13 for 109 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	5	8	2:03	Punt
2	LA	LA 30	13	70	5:44	Touchdown
3	MIN	MIN 8	13	84	7:06	Interception
4	LA	LA 17	4	8	0:50	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 22	5	15	2:09	Punt
6	LA	LA 30	10	56	5:31	Turnover on downs
7	MIN	MIN 25	5	3	1:37	Punt
8	LA	LA 9	3	4	0:58	Interception
9	MIN	LA 11	4	7	1:28	Turnover on downs
10	LA	LA 25	14	62	2:23	Turnover on downs
11	MIN	MIN 44	4	8	0:11	End of half
12	LA	LA 25	3	5	0:55	Interception
13	MIN	MIN 38	7	13	2:46	Punt
14	LA	LA 12	2	0	0:12	Interception
15	MIN	LA 2	2	2	0:06	Touchdown
16	LA	LA 25	5	8	1:43	Punt
17	MIN	MIN 12	4	14	2:12	Defensive touchdown
18	MIN	MIN 11	13	83	5:35	Turnover on downs
19	LA	LA 25	13	75	4:54	Touchdown
20	MIN	MIN 25	9	75	3:16	Touchdown
21	LA	LA 25	14	69	6:18	Turnover on downs
22	MIN	MIN 25	9	49	1:31	Turnover on downs
23	LA	MIN 46	2	0	0:32	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 84 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a interception.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	21/37	197	1	3	0	-9.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sony Michel	27	131	4.9	1	3.3
Darrell Henderson	1	17	17.0	0	1.3
Matthew Stafford	3	8	2.7	0	1.4
Cooper Kupp	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1
Jake Funk	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	10	13	109	0	35%	5.8
Tyler Higbee	5	6	41	0	16%	-4.0
Odell Beckham	4	8	37	1	22%	-0.2
Van Jefferson	1	6	6	0	16%	-5.7
Sony Michel	1	4	4	0	11%	-5.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jalen Ramsey	6	1	0.0	0	1
Aaron Donald	5	1	1.0	0	0
Troy Reeder	6	0	0.0	0	1
Taylor Rapp	4	2	0.0	0	0
Jordan Fuller	1	4	0.0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	3	1	0.0	0	0
Travin Howard	3	1	0.0	1	2
Darious Williams	2	1	0.0	0	1
Nick Scott	1	2	0.0	0	0
Ernest Jones	2	0	0.0	0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	27/38	315	1	1	3	2.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alexander Mattison	13	41	3.2	1	-3.0
Kirk Cousins	4	17	4.3	0	-1.6
Kene Nwangwu	5	8	1.6	0	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	8	12	116	0	34%	7.5
K.J. Osborn	5	7	68	1	20%	-0.4
Tyler Conklin	4	5	44	0	14%	2.7
Adam Thielen	3	3	40	0	9%	0.9
Alexander Mattison	3	4	29	0	11%	-1.4
C.J. Ham	2	2	13	0	6%	0.3
Kene Nwangwu	2	2	5	0	6%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Mackensie Alexander	6	3	0	0
Harrison Smith	5	2	0	1
Xavier Woods	4	3	1	1
Anthony Barr	5	1	2	2
Eric Kendricks	2	4	0	0
Cameron Dantzler	2	3	0	0
D.J. Wonnum	1	2	0	0
Sheldon Richardson	1	2	0	1
Michael Pierce	2	1	0	0
Patrick Peterson	1	1	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -3.5
Closing total: 48.5
LA moneyline: -177
MIN moneyline: +158

Rams closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 53 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: LA 7 days · MIN 6 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Mike Zimmer