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2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
RamsLos Angeles30
BY 7final margin
VikingsMinnesota23
Los Angeles Rams 30 at Minnesota Vikings 23. Final.
Rams -3.5 ✓O 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 16
Los Angeles Rams 30, Vikings 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 11:13, 2nd and 10, on Anthony Barr — 11.8 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 11:13 · 2nd and 10
Anthony Barr
Vikings
(11:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 89-T.Higbee INTERCEPTED by 55-A.Barr (94-D.Tomlinson) at LA 10. 55-A.Barr to LA 2 for 8 yards (63-A.Corbett).
Dome
Rams closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Los Angeles Rams 30–23. Biggest swing: Q3 11:13, Vikings +11.8% win probability on one snap.
11.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Anthony BarrVikingsQ2 4:11(4:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 25-S.Michel INTERCEPTED by 55-A.Barr at LA 14. 55-A.Barr to LA 11 for 3 yards (25-S.Michel).
6.5pts
Unnamed on the sheetRamsQ3 7:22(7:22) 3-J.Berry punts 40 yards to LA 39, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-B.Powell for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-22-H.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
11.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.32 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Vikings at 2 of 12 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Rams at 3 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Rams167 of 179 plays carry both curves
(11:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 89-T.Higbee INTERCEPTED by 55-A.Barr (94-D.Tomlinson) at LA 10. 55-A.Barr to LA 2 for 8 yards (63-A.Corbett).
Swing +11.8 for VikingsExpected points +6.02 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 6 points higher than the market did.play 99
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 11:13LA +12% win prob(11:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 89-T.Higbee INTERCEPTED by 55-A.Barr (94-D.Tomlinson) at LA 10. 55-A.Barr to LA 2 for 8 yards (63-A.Corbett).
3rd · 7:22LA +11% win prob(7:22) 3-J.Berry punts 40 yards to LA 39, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-B.Powell for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-22-H.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
2nd · 4:11LA +6% win prob(4:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 25-S.Michel INTERCEPTED by 55-A.Barr at LA 14. 55-A.Barr to LA 11 for 3 yards (25-S.Michel).
1st · 0:17LA +5% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 17-K.Osborn INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Howard (11-D.Williams) at LA -2. 32-T.Howard pushed ob at LA 17 for 19 yards (17-K.Osborn).
3rd · 4:20MIN +5% win prob(4:20) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to LA 23 for 34 yards (24-T.Rapp).
4th · 7:00MIN +5% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Sony Michel's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 7:18 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:18Sony Michel·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd6:40Matt Gay·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+310–0
2nd2:38Greg Joseph·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+310–3
2nd0:14Matt Gay·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+313–3
4th2:05Matt Gay·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+330–20
4th0:36Greg Joseph·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+330–23
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryVikings
Rams4–3Vikings
357Total yards361
5.2Yards per play5.8
46%Success rate39%
50%Third-down rate17%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays6
22First downs19
0Sacks taken3
3Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Rams: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.06Vikings: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Rams: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.06Vikings: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.20Rams: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.32Vikings: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 69 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Vikings’s 62 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Vikings 5.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 33.3% in week 15 against 61.2% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
MIN's pass rate over expected turned over: −9.9 pts in week 15 against −0.5 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Vikings13.2%
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was LA's early-down pass rate, 50.0% against a season mean of 58.2% — and LA swings 9.6 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
65Coleman SheltonG · Every snap100%70 snaps
63Austin CorbettG · Every snap100%70 snaps
73David EdwardsG · Every snap100%70 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%70 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Full-time97%68 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Full-time96%67 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Full-time91%64 snaps
3Odell BeckhamWR · Full-time91%64 snaps
25Sony MichelRB · Full-time90%63 snaps
68Alaric JacksonT · Heavy rotation74%52 snaps
55Brian AllenC · Rotational26%18 snaps
86Kendall BlantonTE · Situational11%8 snaps
27Darrell HendersonRB · Situational7%5 snaps
18Ben SkowronekWR · Situational6%4 snaps
88Brycen HopkinsTE · Situational4%3 snaps
34Jake FunkRB · Situational3%2 snaps
19Brandon PowellWR · Situational1%1 snap
71Bobby EvansG · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Antoine BrooksDBJuju HughesFSChris GarrettLBTerrell LewisOLBBryce PerkinsQBCam AkersRB
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
John WolfordQBTremayne AnchrumT
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 1 inactive · 1 never used
74Olisaemeka UdohT · Every snap100%63 snaps
72Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%63 snaps
71Christian DarrisawT · Every snap100%63 snaps
75Brian O'NeillT · Every snap100%63 snaps
56Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%63 snaps
8Kirk CousinsQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
18Justin JeffersonWR · Full-time97%61 snaps
83Tyler ConklinTE · Full-time97%61 snaps
17K.J. OsbornWR · Heavy rotation79%50 snaps
25Alexander MattisonRB · Heavy rotation75%47 snaps
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass−20% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 89-T.Higbee INTERCEPTED by 55-A.Barr (94-D.Tomlinson) at LA 10. 55-A.Barr to LA 2 for 8 yards (63-A.Corbett).
Q3 11:13 · Rams · 2nd & 10 at LA 12 · gained nothing · -6.02 EP · −19.7% win probability
165 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 84 yards from the MIN 8 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
41%
Yards
717
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR65-0.0157%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.2477%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15+0.3153%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.4557%
Vikings0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 33
Rams6Vikings0
Rams7Vikings0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Vikings 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Rams 8
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Rams 17 to the Rams 25
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 38
Rams10Vikings0
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Vikings 14
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Rams 9 to the Rams 13
Rams10Vikings3
Field goal4 plays, from the Rams 11 to the Rams 4
Rams13Vikings3
Field goal15 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Vikings 13
The period ended7 plays, from the Vikings 44 to the Rams 48
3rd quarter43 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 30
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 38 to the Rams 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Rams13Vikings9
Rams13Vikings10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 33
Rams19Vikings10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Vikings 21
Rams20Vikings10
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Rams20Vikings13
Field goal13 plays, from the Vikings 11 to the Rams 4
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 38
4th quarter49 plays
Rams26Vikings13
Rams27Vikings13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 49 to the Vikings 7
Rams27Vikings19
Rams27Vikings20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Rams 6
Rams30Vikings20
Field goal18 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Vikings 6
Rams30Vikings23
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Rams 26
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
