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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Miami Dolphins 20, Saints 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 10:33, 3rd and 3, on Nik Needham — 18.4 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:33 · 3rd and 3
Nik Needham
Dolphins
(10:33) (Shotgun) 16-I.Book pass short right intended for 84-L.Humphrey INTERCEPTED by 40-N.Needham (43-A.Van Ginkel) at NO 28. 40-N.Needham for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Dolphins closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.
Miami Dolphins 20–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:33, Dolphins +18.4% win probability on one snap.
18.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tua TagovailoaSaintsQ2 0:27(:27) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at NO 41 for -9 yards (94-C.Jordan).
6.4pts
Mack HollinsDolphinsQ3 8:56(8:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 86-M.Hollins to NO 45 for 40 yards (29-P.Adebo). Pass 37, YAC 3 New Orleans challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
7.3pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.06 expected points per dropback, against Saints at -1.03 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — -0.11 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.68 expected points per snap.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 5 of 15 on third down, against Saints at 0 of 12 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Dolphins won this one — 37% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 24% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Dolphins148 of 158 plays carry both curves
(10:33) (Shotgun) 16-I.Book pass short right intended for 84-L.Humphrey INTERCEPTED by 40-N.Needham (43-A.Van Ginkel) at NO 28. 40-N.Needham for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −18.4 for SaintsExpected points −7.36 for SaintsThe model had Saints 16 points higher than the market did.play 12
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:33MIA +18% win prob(10:33) (Shotgun) 16-I.Book pass short right intended for 84-L.Humphrey INTERCEPTED by 40-N.Needham (43-A.Van Ginkel) at NO 28. 40-N.Needham for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:56NO +7% win prob(8:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 86-M.Hollins to NO 45 for 40 yards (29-P.Adebo). Pass 37, YAC 3 New Orleans challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
2nd · 0:27MIA +6% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at NO 41 for -9 yards (94-C.Jordan).
1st · 3:08MIA +5% win prob(3:08) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at NO 20 for -6 yards (92-M.Davenport). FUMBLES (92-M.Davenport) [92-M.Davenport], recovered by MIA-74-L.Eichenberg at NO 30.
2nd · 10:29MIA +4% win prob(10:29) (Shotgun) 16-I.Book sacked ob at NO 41 for 0 yards (25-X.Howard). PENALTY on NO-41-A.Kamara, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 41.
2nd · 5:31NO +4% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nik Needham's 28-yard touchdown with 10:33 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
1st2:16Jason Sanders·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap B.Ferguson+310–0
2nd2:49Brett Maher·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+310–3
3rd5:15Jaylen Waddle·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+717–3
4th12:09Jason Sanders·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap B.Ferguson+320–3
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categorySaints
Dolphins8–0Saints
259Total yards164
4.4Yards per play3.2
37%Success rate24%
33%Third-down rate0%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
3Explosive plays3
12First downs8
3Sacks taken8
2Turnovers3
The read
Dolphins ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.03 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Dolphins: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.68Saints: −0.68 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Dolphins: +0.06 expected points added per play
−1.03Saints: −1.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.28Dolphins: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.18Saints: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 59 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Saints’s 51 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Saints 1.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.68.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's sack or hit rate, 40.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 15.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 30.6% in week 12.
2.7 times their own weekly swing above their number.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
NO's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 15 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
off script — got home · +21.3 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+2.75× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Saints16.7%
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 40.0%, 21.3 points above their season mean of 18.7% and 2.7 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
I.Book pass−21% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:33) (Shotgun) 16-I.Book pass short right intended for 84-L.Humphrey INTERCEPTED by 40-N.Needham (43-A.Van Ginkel) at NO 28. 40-N.Needham for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 10:33 · Saints · 3rd & 3 at NO 23 · gained nothing · -7.36 EP · −20.9% win probability
146 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 158 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 86 yards from the MIA 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
158 of 158 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
158
EPA per play
-0.30
Success rate
29%
Yards
423
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR47-0.1743%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR13-0.6354%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.3930%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.3150%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-1.0375%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR7-0.1171%
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Dolphins0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the Saints 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Dolphins6Saints0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Saints 23
Dolphins7Saints0
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 29
Dolphins10Saints0
Field goal14 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the Saints 14
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 29
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 46
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 17 to the Saints 42
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Dolphins 36
Dolphins10Saints3
Field goal10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Dolphins 15
No good15 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Saints 32
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 31
Intercepted3 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Dolphins 28
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Dolphins 49
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Dolphins16Saints3
Dolphins17Saints3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 14 to the Saints 1
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 39
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 19 to the Dolphins 28
The period ended3 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Saints 33
4th quarter39 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Saints 38
Dolphins20Saints3
Field goal6 plays, from the Saints 38 to the Saints 16
Punt10 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 37
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Saints 38
Intercepted7 plays, from the Saints 1 to the Dolphins 40
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 33 to the Dolphins 39
The period ended3 plays, from the Saints 33 to the Saints 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -3
Closing total
37.5
Dolphins moneyline
-160
Saints moneyline
+143
Dolphins closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 23 — under by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Dolphins 8 days · Saints 8 days
Coaches
Brian Flores vs Sean Payton
(5:31) (Shotgun) 16-I.Book pass short left to 41-A.Kamara ran ob at MIA 38 for 12 yards (55-J.Baker). PENALTY on MIA-29-Br.Jones, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 38. Pass -3, YAC 15
3rd · 8:25NO +4% win prob(8:25) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at NO 21 for 24 yards (23-M.Lattimore). Flea-flicker: Tagovailoa handed off to Johnson, who tossed back. Pass 16, YAC 8
1st · 6:51NO +4% win prob(6:51) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to NO 42 for 18 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). Pass 13, YAC 5
