2021 Week 16 · Mon, Dec 27, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Miami DolphinsWinner

New Orleans Saints

MIA -3 ✓U 37.5 ✓DomeDolphins closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.

Miami Dolphins 20–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:33, MIA +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:33MIA — NO NO ball · 3rd & 3MIA 56%

(10:33) (Shotgun) 16-I.Book pass short right intended for 84-L.Humphrey INTERCEPTED by 40-N.Needham (43-A.Van Ginkel) at NO 28. 40-N.Needham for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:33MIA +18% win prob(10:33) (Shotgun) 16-I.Book pass short right intended for 84-L.Humphrey INTERCEPTED by 40-N.Needham (43-A.Van Ginkel) at NO 28. 40-N.Needham for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 8:56NO +7% win prob(8:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 86-M.Hollins to NO 45 for 40 yards (29-P.Adebo). Pass 37, YAC 3 New Orleans challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
Q2 · 0:27MIA +6% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at NO 41 for -9 yards (94-C.Jordan).
Q1 · 3:08MIA +5% win prob(3:08) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at NO 20 for -6 yards (92-M.Davenport). FUMBLES (92-M.Davenport) [92-M.Davenport], recovered by MIA-74-L.Eichenberg at NO 30.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Saints
Offensive plays	59	51
Total yards	259 (edge)	164
Yards per play	4.4 (edge)	3.2
Expected points added / play	-0.11 (edge)	-0.68
Success rate	37% (edge)	24%
Dropback rate	51%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06 (edge)	-1.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28	-0.18 (edge)
Third downs	5/15 (edge)	0/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	3
First downs gained on snaps	12 (edge)	8
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	8
Turnovers	2 (edge)	3

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.68.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

19/26, 198 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

4.9 expected points added · +3.0% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Ian BookQB

12/20, 135 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-29.7 expected points added · -7.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

13 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

-3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Duke JohnsonRB

13 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

-4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

10/12 for 92 yds, 1 TD

46% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR

3/5 for 70 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · -4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 21	8	17	3:22	Punt
2	NO	NO 16	3	7	1:13	Defensive touchdown
3	NO	NO 25	5	-6	1:34	Punt
4	MIA	MIA 31	12	34	6:42	Fumble
5	NO	NO 25	5	-3	1:58	Punt
6	MIA	MIA 26	6	20	2:57	Punt
7	NO	NO 17	5	24	2:23	Punt
8	MIA	MIA 28	4	10	2:27	Punt
9	NO	NO 25	8	45	4:39	Turnover on downs
10	MIA	MIA 25	9	49	2:45	Turnover on downs
11	NO	NO 25	5	6	1:23	Punt
12	MIA	MIA 24	3	1	1:21	Interception
13	NO	NO 36	6	12	2:36	Punt
14	MIA	MIA 14	10	84	4:30	Touchdown
15	NO	NO 25	6	14	2:22	Punt
16	MIA	MIA 19	4	9	2:20	Punt
17	NO	NO 29	4	9	1:11	Turnover on downs
18	MIA	NO 38	6	22	2:12	Turnover on downs
19	NO	NO 20	9	-9	4:00	Defensive touchdown
20	MIA	MIA 40	5	7	3:33	Punt
21	NO	NO 1	6	59	1:41	Interception
22	MIA	MIA 33	4	6	1:47	Punt
23	NO	NO 33	2	6	1:04	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 84 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	19/26	198	1	1	2	4.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Duke Johnson	13	39	3.0	-4.4
Phillip Lindsay	13	36	2.8	-3.0
Myles Gaskin	3	10	3.3	-0.6
Tua Tagovailoa	1	1	1.0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jaylen Waddle	10	12	92	1	46%	7.0
Mack Hollins	1	2	40	0	8%	1.9
Durham Smythe	3	3	31	0	12%	1.8
Mike Gesicki	3	4	22	0	15%	0.6
Tommylee Lewis	1	2	7	0	8%	0.3
Myles Gaskin	1	3	6	0	12%	-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Christian Wilkins	0	7	0.5	0	0
Elandon Roberts	3	4	0.0	0	0
Zach Sieler	3	3	1.0	0	0
Jerome Baker	5	1	1.5	0	0
Brandon Jones	1	4	1.0	1	1
Jevon Holland	4	1	0.5	0	0
Xavien Howard	3	2	1.0	0	0
Emmanuel Ogbah	3	2	2.0	0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	3	0	0.0	0	2
Raekwon Davis	0	3	0.5	0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ian Book	12/20	135	0	2	8	-29.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	13	52	4.0	-3.9
Mark Ingram	4	17	4.3	-0.8
Ian Book	3	6	2.0	1.0
Tony Jones	2	6	3.0	-0.9
Adam Prentice	1	2	2.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	3	5	70	28%	-4.7
Marquez Callaway	4	5	46	28%	0.5
Ethan Wolf	2	2	8	11%	-0.4
Alvin Kamara	2	4	7	22%	-2.7
Kenny Stills	1	1	4	6%	-0.3
Nick Vannett	0	1	0	6%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Pete Werner	6	3	0.0	0	0
Zack Baun	7	1	0.0	0	0
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	5	2	0.0	0	0
Cameron Jordan	4	2	2.0	0	0
Marcus Davenport	2	3	1.0	0	0
Shy Tuttle	1	4	0.0	0	0
Braxton Hoyett	2	2	0.0	0	0
Marshon Lattimore	2	1	0.0	1	1
Marcus Williams	1	2	0.0	0	0
Paulson Adebo	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -3
Closing total: 37.5
MIA moneyline: -160
NO moneyline: +143

Dolphins closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 37.5; the game landed 23 — under by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: MIA 8 days · NO 8 days
Coaches: Brian Flores vs Sean Payton