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2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
GiantsNew York10
BY 24final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia34
New York Giants 10 at Philadelphia Eagles 34. Final.
Eagles -11 ✓O 41 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 16
Philadelphia Eagles 34, Giants 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 14:21, 2nd and 10, on Rodney McLeod — 14.0 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:21 · 2nd and 10
Rodney McLeod
Eagles
(14:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass deep middle intended for 19-K.Golladay INTERCEPTED by 23-R.McLeod at NYG 45. 23-R.McLeod to NYG 21 for 24 yards (78-A.Thomas).
Eagles closed -11 and covered, winning by 24.
Philadelphia Eagles 34–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 14:21, Eagles +14.0% win probability on one snap.
14.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetGiantsQ1 12:24(12:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to PHI 19, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 15 for -4 yards (47-C.Brown).
11.0pts
Jake ElliottGiantsQ2 7:11(7:11) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.
9.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Giants at 1 chunk play.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.02 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.36 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 2 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Eagles at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Giants178 of 189 plays carry both curves
(14:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass deep middle intended for 19-K.Golladay INTERCEPTED by 23-R.McLeod at NYG 45. 23-R.McLeod to NYG 21 for 24 yards (78-A.Thomas).
Swing +14.0 for EaglesExpected points +5.15 for EaglesThe model had Giants 14 points higher than the market did.play 94
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 14:21NYG +14% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass deep middle intended for 19-K.Golladay INTERCEPTED by 23-R.McLeod at NYG 45. 23-R.McLeod to NYG 21 for 24 yards (78-A.Thomas).
1st · 12:24PHI +11% win prob(12:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to PHI 19, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 15 for -4 yards (47-C.Brown).
2nd · 7:11NYG +9% win prob(7:11) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.
2nd · 4:46PHI +9% win prob(4:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith to NYG 14 for 46 yards (20-J.Love).
1st · 1:31PHI +8% win prob(1:31) 8-A.Siposs punts 51 yards to NYG 25, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.
2nd · 11:48PHI +7% win prob(11:48) 5-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Boston Scott's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 12:07 left in the 3rd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd11:48Graham Gano·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+33–0
2nd2:00Jake Elliott·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.Lovato+33–3
3rd12:07Boston Scott·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–10
3rd7:52Jake Elliott·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.Lovato+33–13
4th3:55Evan Engram·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Mike Glennonfrom Mike Glennon+710–34
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryEagles
Giants1–8Eagles
192Total yards324
2.6Yards per play5.4
33%Success rate40%
40%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
1Explosive plays6
12First downs16
2Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Eagles ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.36Giants: −0.36 expected points added per play
+0.02Eagles: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.39Giants: −0.39 expected points added per play
+0.04Eagles: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.28Giants: −0.28 expected points added per play
+0.00Eagles: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 73 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Eagles’s 60 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Giants 1, Eagles 5.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 26 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Eagles9.8%
right on their number · −2.7 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was NYG's early-down pass rate, 68.6% against a season mean of 57.7% — and NYG swings 14.0 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
69Billy PriceC · Every snap100%76 snaps
71Will HernandezG · Every snap100%76 snaps
78Andrew ThomasT · Every snap100%76 snaps
79Korey CunninghamT · Full-time88%67 snaps
19Kenny GolladayWR · Full-time80%61 snaps
86Darius SlaytonWR · Full-time80%61 snaps
88Evan EngramTE · Heavy rotation78%59 snaps
67Matt SkuraC · Heavy rotation63%48 snaps
28Devontae BookerRB · Heavy rotation54%41 snaps
17Jake FrommQB · Heavy rotation53%40 snaps
89Kadarius ToneyWR · Heavy rotation51%39 snaps
83Pharoh CooperWR · Rotational47%36 snaps
2Mike GlennonQB · Rotational47%36 snaps
63Wes MartinG · Rotational37%28 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Rotational34%26 snaps
80Kyle RudolphTE · Situational22%17 snaps
84David SillsWR · Situational20%15 snaps
39Elijhaa PennyRB · Situational17%13 snaps
74Matt PeartT · Situational14%11 snaps
41Chris MyarickTE · Situational13%10 snaps
Inactive · 4
Ben BredesonGOshane XiminesOLBGary BrightwellRBCollin JohnsonWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass+13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith to NYG 14 for 46 yards (20-J.Love).
Q2 4:46 · Eagles · 2nd & 10 at PHI 40 · gained 46 · +3.55 EP · +12.9% win probability
176 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 75 yards from the PHI 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
36%
Yards
516
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60-0.2965%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.0171%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26-0.0719%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-1.0178%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Eagles 29
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Giants 38
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Eagles 26
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 41 to the Eagles 42
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 25
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 49 to the Eagles 44
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Eagles 31
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 39
2nd quarter48 plays
Giants3Eagles0
Field goal8 plays, from the Giants 39 to the Eagles 34
No good12 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Giants 17
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 31 to the Giants 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Giants3Eagles3
Field goal8 plays, from the Eagles 40 to the Giants 4
Punt14 plays, from the Giants 25 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
Giants3Eagles9
Giants3Eagles10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Giants 3
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 27
Giants3Eagles13
Field goal5 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Giants 19
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 26
Giants3Eagles19
Giants3Eagles20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Giants 4
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 40
The period ended4 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 32
4th quarter55 plays
Giants3Eagles26
Giants3Eagles27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 48 to the Giants 5
Giants3Eagles33
Touchdown5 plays, from the Giants 17 to the Giants 28
Giants3Eagles34
Giants9Eagles34
Giants10Eagles34
Touchdown22 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 9
Turnover on downs11 plays, from midfield to the Giants 30
The period ended7 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Eagles 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
