2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -10.5 ✓O 44 ✓22 mph windChiefs closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 26.

Kansas City Chiefs 36–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:25, KC +6% win probability on one snap. Played in 22 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:25PIT — KC PIT ball · 2nd & 12KC 87%

(14:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at PIT 41 for 18 yards (21-M.Hughes).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:25KC +6% win prob(14:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at PIT 41 for 18 yards (21-M.Hughes).
Q1 · 11:00KC +4% win prob(11:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill to KC 40 for 10 yards (23-J.Haden).
Q1 · 12:17PIT +3% win prob(12:17) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire right end to KC 27 for no gain (92-I.Loudermilk; 93-J.Schobert).
Q1 · 15:00PIT +3% win prob(15:00) 22-N.Harris right end to PIT 23 for -2 yards (53-A.Hitchens, 22-J.Thornhill).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Chiefs
Offensive plays	69	67
Total yards	303	381 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.28	0.23 (edge)
Success rate	42%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.37	0.50 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	4
First downs gained on snaps	20	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.28.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

23/30, 258 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

15.9 expected points added · +15.1% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

23/35, 159 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-10.6 expected points added · -3.8% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

19 att, 93 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Darrel WilliamsRB

11 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Byron PringleWR

6/7 for 75 yds, 2 TD

24% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Derrick GoreRB

3/3 for 61 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	7	8	2:43	Punt
2	KC	KC 27	15	68	8:10	Touchdown
3	PIT	PIT 25	2	0	0:08	Interception
4	KC	PIT 49	7	44	2:54	Touchdown
5	PIT	PIT 20	7	17	2:19	Punt
6	KC	KC 20	10	54	5:01	Turnover on downs
7	PIT	PIT 25	10	57	3:42	Turnover on downs
8	KC	KC 26	7	74	2:50	Touchdown
9	PIT	PIT 25	5	6	0:50	Turnover on downs
10	KC	PIT 31	6	15	1:05	Turnover on downs
11	PIT	PIT 29	3	21	0:18	End of half
12	KC	KC 25	5	9	1:34	Punt
13	PIT	PIT 30	2	10	0:42	Fumble
14	KC	KC 49	8	51	3:51	Touchdown
15	PIT	PIT 30	16	58	5:19	Turnover on downs
16	KC	KC 25	13	59	6:37	Turnover on downs
17	PIT	PIT 30	2	-13	0:14	Fumble
18	KC	PIT 7	4	1	2:02	Turnover on downs
19	PIT	PIT 15	19	85	6:47	Touchdown
20	KC	KC 25	5	6	0:38	Punt
21	PIT	PIT 39	10	54	2:16	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 19 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	23/35	159	1	1	2	-10.6
Mason Rudolph	5/8	35	0	0	0	-2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Najee Harris	19	93	4.9	-1.5
Benny Snell	5	20	4.0	-1.0
Mason Rudolph	1	17	17.0	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	6	9	51	1	21%	2.1
Chase Claypool	4	6	41	0	14%	1.3
Zach Gentry	4	4	31	0	10%	-2.5
Ray-Ray McCloud	4	8	25	0	19%	-6.3
Najee Harris	5	7	17	0	17%	-3.8
Cody White	3	3	16	0	7%	1.4
Kevin Rader	1	2	7	0	5%	-0.4
Benny Snell	1	1	6	0	2%	0.2
James Washington	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Robert Spillane	5	8	0.0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	5	7	0.0	1
Joe Schobert	4	6	0.0	0
Isaiahh Loudermilk	3	3	0.0	0
Alex Highsmith	2	3	1.0	0
Cameron Heyward	2	3	1.0	0
Terrell Edmunds	1	3	0.0	0
Joe Haden	3	1	0.0	0
Ulysees Gilbert	2	0	0.0	0
Derrek Tuszka	1	1	0.0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	23/30	258	3	0	2	15.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Darrel Williams	11	55	5.0	0	1.8
Derrick Gore	12	43	3.6	0	-2.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	9	27	3.0	1	-0.5
Michael Burton	1	2	2.0	0	2.2
Chad Henne	2	0	0.0	0	-2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Byron Pringle	6	7	75	2	24%	6.8
Derrick Gore	3	3	61	0	10%	4.1
Mecole Hardman	3	5	31	1	17%	2.5
Darrel Williams	3	3	30	0	10%	1.6
Tyreek Hill	2	2	19	0	7%	2.9
Demarcus Robinson	2	2	15	0	7%	1.2
Noah Gray	2	2	12	0	7%	0.3
Blake Bell	1	1	11	0	3%	0.7
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.0
Josh Gordon	0	3	0	0	10%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Juan Thornhill	4	3	0	0
Dicaprio Bootle	5	2	0	0
Ben Niemann	4	2	0	0
Mike Hughes	4	2	0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	4	2	0	1
Willie Gay	2	3	0	0
Dorian O'Daniel	2	2	0	0
Anthony Hitchens	1	3	0	0
Charvarius Ward	3	0	1	1
Josh Jackson	1	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -10.5
Closing total: 44
PIT moneyline: +328
KC moneyline: -400

Chiefs closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 26.

Total closed 44; the game landed 46 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 60°F, wind 22 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: PIT 7 days · KC 10 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Andy Reid

Wind at 22 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.