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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 16 · Thu, Dec 23, 2021 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 16
It turned at Q4 3:42, 2nd and 10, on Deebo Samuel — 24.2 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Tennessee Titans 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:42, 49ers +24.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:42 · 2nd and 10
Deebo Samuel
49ers
(3:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel to TEN 6 for 56 yards (37-A.Hooker). SF-19-D.Samuel was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
24.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Titans won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 2 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Titans won this one — 9 of 16 on third down, against 49ers at 3 of 8 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers owned this one and still lost it — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.22 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(3:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel to TEN 6 for 56 yards (37-A.Hooker). SF-19-D.Samuel was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Randy Bullock's 44-yard field goal with 0:09 left in the 4th put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Randy Bullock44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+317–207 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryTitans
49ers ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 58 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Titans’s 58 at 60%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Titans 3.
49ers outgained Titans 389-278 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 12 pts
Over Expected room →49ers0.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.8 vs their -6.6 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 58 snaps
Titans-7.1 ptsright on their number · +0.9 vs their -8.0 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 86%
Tendencies room →49ers62.5%inside their normal wobble · +13.1 vs their 49.4%, and they swing ±14.2 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 48 early downs
Titans50.0%right on their number · +3.9 vs their 46.1%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 106%
Fourth Down room →49ers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 23.3%.
Titans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 49.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 33%
Tendencies room →49ers22.9%leaned — got home · +7.0 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Titans8.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
SF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 22.9%, 7.0 points above their season mean of 15.8% and 1.0 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
26/35, 322 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
3.4 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
22/29, 209 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
7.8 expected points added · +11.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Deebo Samuel banked 6.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 31.5 | +3.3 | 74% | 86% | 53% | 78% | 0/1, 0 yd · 11/16, 145 yd, 1 TD |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 28.1 | +6.3 | 76% | 76% | 31% | 30% | 5 car, 32 yd · 9/11, 159 yd |
| Jeffery WilsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 14.7 | +0.1 | 75% | 68% | 9% | 0% | 14 car, 45 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 12 yd |
| Ryan TannehillQB · Starter QB | 14.6 | +1.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/29, 209 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 22 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.0 | +4.3 | 93% | 95% | 14% | 5% | 4/5, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 13.2 | −2.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/35, 322 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 3 yd |
| D'Onta ForemanRB | 7.7 | +2.0 | 34% | 29% | 0% | — | 9 car, 17 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyle JuszczykRB · Receiving Back | 7.5 | −0.8 | 54% | 57% | 14% | 19% | 3/5, 45 yd |
| Jamycal HastyRB | 5.9 | +0.8 | 19% | 22% | 9% | 2% | 1 car, 3 yd · 3/3, 26 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +0.7 | 63% | 46% | 10% | 15% | 2/3, 38 yd |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −3.0 | 100% | 100% | 9% | 11% | 2/3, 21 yd |
| Geoff SwaimTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −0.3 | 63% | 54% | 10% | 2% | 3/3, 10 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −4.8 | 46% | 49% | 14% | 38% | 2/5, 19 yd |
| Dontrell HilliardRB | 3.4 | −1.8 | 21% | 20% | 7% | 0% | 5 car, 20 yd · 2/2, -6 yd |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 3.1 | −1.9 | 42% | 43% | 3% | 0% | 7 car, 31 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.8 | 26% | 29% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Julio JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | 50% | 69% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Chester RogersWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.1 | 50% | 54% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Khari BlasingameRB | 0.9 | −0.8 | 15% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, -1 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 20% | 19% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Racey McMathWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 16% | 17% | 3% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:09) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.
Q4 0:09 · Titans · 4th & 5 at SF 26 · gained nothing · +0.67 EP · +20.6% win probability
148 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 95 yards from the SF 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers6
Titans049ers7Titans049ers10Titans049ers10Titans349ers10Titans949ers10Titans1049ers10Titans1649ers10Titans1749ers16Titans1749ers17Titans1749ers17Titans20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 26/35 | 322 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +3.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffery Wilson | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 1 | −0.2 |
| Deebo Samuel | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 9 | 11 | 159 | 0 | 31% | +4.4 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 14% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 1 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaquiski Tartt |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 22/29 | 209 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +7.8 |
| A.J. Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_16_SF_TEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 37 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.2 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| +2.9 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 4 | 5 | 40 | 1 | 14% | +1.5 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 9% | +1.2 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 9% | −4.3 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 14% | +0.3 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9% | −0.4 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Josh Norman | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Waun Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentavius Street | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcell Harris | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Jones | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samson Ebukam | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy McNichols | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 | −2.1 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 9 | 17 | 1.9 | 1 | −2.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 11 | 16 | 145 | 1 | 53% | +10.7 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 10% | +5.6 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +2.0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 10% | −0.4 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.2 |
| Racey McMath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Khari Blasingame | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 2 | 2 | -6 | 0 | 7% | −2.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buster Skrine | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashaan Evans | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jayon Brown | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Naquan Jones | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Cunningham | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denico Autry | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bud Dupree | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Cruikshank | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
