2021 Week 16 · Thu, Dec 23, 2021 · Nissan Stadium

San Francisco 49ers

Tennessee TitansWinner

SF -3.5 upsetU 45.5 ✓49ers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:42, TEN +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:42SF — TEN SF ball · 2nd & 10TEN 83%

(3:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel to TEN 6 for 56 yards (37-A.Hooker). SF-19-D.Samuel was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:42TEN +24% win prob(3:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel to TEN 6 for 56 yards (37-A.Hooker). SF-19-D.Samuel was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Q3 · 0:04TEN +19% win prob(:04) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-A.Brown to SF 30 for 42 yards (20-A.Thomas). Penalty on SF-98-A.Key, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q4 · 13:06TEN +15% win prob(13:06) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-N.Bosa].
Q4 · 0:09TEN +13% win prob(:09) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Titans
Offensive plays	58	58
Total yards	389 (edge)	278
Yards per play	6.7 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	0.06
Success rate	45% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	64%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09	0.24 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.22
Third downs	3/8	9/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	4
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

49ers outgained Titans 389–278 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

26/35, 322 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

3.4 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

22/29, 209 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.8 expected points added · +11.9% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Jeffery WilsonRB

14 att, 45 yds, 1 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

5 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

9/11 for 159 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

A.J. BrownWR

11/16 for 145 yds, 1 TD

53% of team targets · 10.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	11	75	5:03	Touchdown
2	TEN	TEN 39	8	8	4:16	Punt
3	SF	SF 20	8	57	4:10	Interception
4	TEN	TEN 20	4	4	1:41	Punt
5	SF	SF 37	11	48	6:19	Turnover on downs
6	TEN	TEN 25	8	31	3:54	Punt
7	SF	SF 22	4	-7	1:30	Punt
8	TEN	SF 45	7	12	1:47	Punt
9	SF	SF 10	4	18	1:20	End of half
10	TEN	TEN 25	14	60	6:15	Turnover on downs
11	SF	SF 25	2	0	0:09	Interception
12	TEN	SF 18	5	18	1:23	Touchdown
13	SF	SF 25	9	45	5:20	Turnover on downs
14	TEN	TEN 41	8	69	3:51	Touchdown
15	SF	SF 25	8	42	3:38	Punt
16	TEN	TEN 3	8	33	4:06	Punt
17	SF	SF 5	9	95	2:58	Touchdown
18	TEN	TEN 25	9	43	2:16	Turnover on downs
19	SF	SF 25	2	16	0:04	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 95 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	26/35	322	1	2	2	3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jeffery Wilson	14	45	3.2	1	-0.2
Deebo Samuel	5	32	6.4	0	2.0
Jimmy Garoppolo	1	3	3.0	0	-0.2
Jamycal Hasty	1	3	3.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Deebo Samuel	9	11	159	0	31%	4.4
Kyle Juszczyk	3	5	45	0	14%	2.9
Brandon Aiyuk	4	5	40	1	14%	1.5
Jamycal Hasty	3	3	26	0	9%	1.2
George Kittle	2	3	21	0	9%	-4.3
Jauan Jennings	2	5	19	0	14%	0.3
Jeffery Wilson	3	3	12	0	9%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Fred Warner	5	1	0.0
Azeez Al-Shaair	1	5	0.5
Jaquiski Tartt	4	1	0.0
Josh Norman	2	2	0.0
K'Waun Williams	3	1	0.0
Kentavius Street	3	0	1.0
Marcell Harris	3	0	0.0
Nick Bosa	3	0	0.0
D.J. Jones	3	0	0.0
Samson Ebukam	2	1	1.5

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	22/29	209	1	0	4	7.8
A.J. Brown	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jeremy McNichols	7	31	4.4	0	-0.5
Ryan Tannehill	3	22	7.3	0	1.1
Dontrell Hilliard	5	20	4.0	0	-2.1
D'Onta Foreman	9	17	1.9	1	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	11	16	145	1	53%	10.7
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	2	3	38	0	10%	5.6
Anthony Firkser	1	1	13	0	3%	2.0
Geoff Swaim	3	3	10	0	10%	-0.4
Julio Jones	1	1	7	0	3%	0.2
Chester Rogers	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.8
Jeremy McNichols	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.2
Racey McMath	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Khari Blasingame	1	1	-1	0	3%	-0.9
Dontrell Hilliard	2	2	-6	0	7%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Buster Skrine	3	4	0.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	4	2	0.0	0	0
Rashaan Evans	4	2	0.0	0	0
Amani Hooker	2	4	0.0	1	1
Jayon Brown	2	3	0.0	0	0
Naquan Jones	2	2	0.0	0	1
Zach Cunningham	4	0	0.0	0	0
Denico Autry	2	1	1.0	0	0
Bud Dupree	2	1	1.0	0	0
Dane Cruikshank	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -3.5
Closing total: 45.5
SF moneyline: -171
TEN moneyline: +154

49ers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 37 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: SF 4 days · TEN 4 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Mike Vrabel