2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Carolina Panthers

TB -11.5 ✓U 44.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 26.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 4:24, CAR +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 4:24TB — CAR TB ball · 2nd & 2TB 77%

(4:24) 21-K.Vaughn left tackle for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 4:24CAR +11% win prob(4:24) 21-K.Vaughn left tackle for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 9:40CAR +9% win prob(9:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left guard pushed ob at TB 11 for 33 yards (32-M.Edwards).
Q2 · 15:00CAR +6% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 81-A.Brown to CAR 35 for 19 yards (9-S.Gilmore).
Q2 · 10:14CAR +6% win prob(10:14) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 12-S.Smith pushed ob at TB 10 for 63 yards (35-J.Dean).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Panthers
Offensive plays	63	67
Total yards	391 (edge)	273
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	-0.33
Success rate	41% (edge)	28%
Dropback rate	52%	79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.31 (edge)	-0.39
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.13
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	7/18
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	7
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.33.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

18/30, 232 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.0 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

15/32, 190 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-11.5 expected points added · -14.4% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Ke'Shawn VaughnRB

7 att, 70 yds, 1 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Ronald JonesRB

20 att, 65 yds, 1 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Antonio BrownWR

10/15 for 101 yds, 0 TD

52% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Shi SmithWR

3/5 for 86 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	8	16	2:39	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 30	9	59	5:04	Turnover on downs
3	TB	TB 25	7	80	3:04	Touchdown
4	CAR	CAR 25	7	27	2:32	Interception
5	TB	TB 49	10	43	5:47	Turnover on downs
6	CAR	CAR 25	7	64	3:34	Turnover on downs
7	TB	TB 25	10	45	4:40	Turnover on downs
8	CAR	CAR 25	5	8	0:59	Punt
9	TB	TB 31	5	69	0:22	Touchdown
10	CAR	CAR 25	5	2	0:44	Punt
11	TB	TB 17	1	-1	0:35	End of half
12	CAR	CAR 14	8	5	2:30	Punt
13	TB	TB 46	9	41	3:56	Turnover on downs
14	CAR	CAR 25	5	-10	2:09	Punt
15	TB	TB 43	8	57	4:17	Touchdown
16	CAR	CAR 25	14	51	5:16	Turnover on downs
17	TB	TB 25	4	-1	1:37	Punt
18	CAR	TB 48	4	-7	0:26	Turnover on downs
19	TB	CAR 45	5	15	1:50	Turnover on downs
20	CAR	CAR 31	5	-8	1:12	Punt
21	TB	TB 22	8	27	4:37	Punt
22	CAR	CAR 7	13	82	2:10	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 82 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a end of game.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	18/30	232	1	0	0	10.0
Blaine Gabbert	0/1	0	0	0	0	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	7	70	10.0	1	2.9
Ronald Jones	20	65	3.3	1	-1.6
Cyril Grayson	1	14	14.0	0	1.0
Tom Brady	1	11	11.0	0	1.4
Le'Veon Bell	2	-1	-0.5	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Antonio Brown	10	15	101	0	52%	6.0
Cyril Grayson	3	3	81	0	10%	5.1
Rob Gronkowski	1	2	23	0	7%	-0.1
Ronald Jones	2	3	16	0	10%	-0.2
Cameron Brate	2	4	11	1	14%	1.9
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Scott Miller	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Mike Edwards	4	3	0.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	5	1	0.0	1	3
Shaquil Barrett	2	2	1.0	0	2
Carlton Davis	3	1	0.0	0	0
Grant Stuard	2	2	0.0	0	0
Kevin Minter	3	1	1.0	0	0
Vita Vea	3	0	1.0	0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	1	2	0.0	0	1
Devin White	1	2	0.0	0	0
Cam Gill	2	1	0.0	0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	15/32	190	0	0	4	-11.5
Cam Newton	7/13	61	0	1	3	-9.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Cam Newton	5	42	8.4	0.3
Sam Darnold	1	11	11.0	0.7
Chuba Hubbard	6	9	1.5	-0.6
Reggie Bonnafon	1	4	4.0	-0.2
Ameer Abdullah	2	1	0.5	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Shi Smith	3	5	86	12%	-0.1
Robbie Chosen	5	10	58	23%	-0.6
D.J. Moore	5	12	55	28%	-0.6
Tommy Tremble	2	2	22	5%	1.0
Reggie Bonnafon	2	2	12	5%	0.8
Ameer Abdullah	3	6	8	14%	-4.8
Terrace Marshall	1	1	6	2%	-0.7
Ian Thomas	1	1	4	2%	-0.3
Chuba Hubbard	0	1	0	2%	-0.7
Giovanni Ricci	0	1	0	2%	-0.5
Stephen Sullivan	0	1	0	2%	-0.4
Alex Erickson	0	1	0	2%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Shaq Thompson	3	5	0
Frankie Luvu	1	4	0
DaQuan Jones	2	3	0
Myles Hartsfield	4	1	1
Jeremy Chinn	3	2	0
Haason Reddick	1	2	0
Jermaine Carter	2	1	0
C.J. Henderson	2	1	1
Bravvion Roy	2	1	0
Keith Taylor	3	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -11.5
Closing total: 44.5
TB moneyline: -503
CAR moneyline: +399

Buccaneers closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 26.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 38 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 73°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: TB 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Matt Rhule

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.