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DYNATYZE
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Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 44 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Buccaneers169 of 184 plays carry both curves
(4:24) 21-K.Vaughn left tackle for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.2 for PanthersExpected points −4.40 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 40 points higher than the market did.play 27
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:24CAR +11% win prob(4:24) 21-K.Vaughn left tackle for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 9:40CAR +9% win prob(9:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left guard pushed ob at TB 11 for 33 yards (32-M.Edwards).
2nd · 15:00CAR +6% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 81-A.Brown to CAR 35 for 19 yards (9-S.Gilmore).
2nd · 10:14CAR +6% win prob(10:14) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 12-S.Smith pushed ob at TB 10 for 63 yards (35-J.Dean).
1st · 5:21TB +5% win prob(5:21) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-87-R.Gronkowski, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 37 - No Play.
1st · 12:31CAR +4% win prob(12:31) 19-S.Hofrichter punts 45 yards to CAR 14, Center-97-Z.Triner. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 30 for 16 yards (48-G.Stuard).
2nd · 1:41
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ke'Shawn Vaughn's 55-yard rushing touchdown with 4:24 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:21Lirim Hajrullahu·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap J.Jansen+30–3
1st4:24Ke'Shawn Vaughn·55-yd TD run55-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–3
2nd10:58Ryan Succop·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap Z.Triner+310–3
2nd7:25Lirim Hajrullahu·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap J.Jansen+310–6
2nd2:44Ryan Succop·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap Z.Triner+313–6
2nd1:22Cameron Brate·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady · two-point no good+619–6
3rd8:39Ryan Succop·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap Z.Triner+322–6
4th8:04Ryan Succop·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap Z.Triner+332–6
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryPanthers
Buccaneers9–0Panthers
391Total yards273
6.2Yards per play4.1
41%Success rate28%
50%Third-down rate39%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
8Explosive plays3
21First downs14
0Sacks taken7
0Turnovers1
The read
Buccaneers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Buccaneers: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.33Panthers: −0.33 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.31Buccaneers: +0.31 expected points added per play
−0.39Panthers: −0.39 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Buccaneers: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.13Panthers: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 63 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Panthers’s 67 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 5, Panthers 3.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−2.5σtheir own normal+2.5σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor.
TB's early-down pass rate, 41.7%, is past their previous low of 53.6% in week 7 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 15.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points. · −2.3σ from their own normal
high through week 16Against their seasonTendencies
CAR's early-down pass rate, 74.5%, is past their previous high of 66.0% in week 6 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
low through week 16Against their seasonOver Expected
TB's pass rate over expected, −4.7 pts, is past their previous low of −0.9 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
low through week 16Against their seasonFourth Down
TB's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 20.0% in week 14 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 16.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.6 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 10.0% in week 15 against 20.8% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 28 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Panthers6.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 41.7%, 22.4 points below their season mean of 64.1% and 2.3 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive
78Tristan WirfsT · Every snap100%67 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%67 snaps
76Donovan SmithT · Full-time96%64 snaps
74Ali MarpetG · Full-time96%64 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Full-time96%64 snaps
66Ryan JensenC · Full-time96%64 snaps
87Rob GronkowskiTE · Full-time90%60 snaps
81Antonio BrownWR · Heavy rotation79%53 snaps
15Cyril GraysonWR · Heavy rotation79%53 snaps
18Tyler JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation54%36 snaps
27Ronald JonesRB · Heavy rotation52%35 snaps
84Cameron BrateTE · Rotational46%31 snaps
21Ke'Shawn VaughnRB · Rotational36%24 snaps
80O.J. HowardTE · Rotational36%24 snaps
72Josh WellsT · Situational24%16 snaps
70Robert HainseyT · Situational4%3 snaps
10Scott MillerWR · Situational4%3 snaps
11Blaine GabbertQB · Situational4%3 snaps
6Le'Veon BellRB · Situational4%3 snaps
60Nick LeverettG · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Pierre DesirCBJason Pierre-PaulDEAntoine WinfieldFSBradley PinionPKyle TraskQBMike EvansWR
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Vaughn left+17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(4:24) 21-K.Vaughn left tackle for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 4:24 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 2 at TB 45 · gained 55 · +4.40 EP · +17.1% win probability
167 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 87 yards from the CAR 7 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
35%
Yards
664
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.4489%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.0646%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17+0.4059%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0047%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.1414%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR4——
Panthers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 41
Buccaneers0Panthers3
Field goal11 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Buccaneers 4
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Buccaneers6Panthers3
Buccaneers7Panthers3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 45
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 48
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Buccaneers10Panthers3
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 46 to the Panthers 18
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.3 seconds
Buccaneers10Panthers6
Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 8
Buccaneers13Panthers6
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 25
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Buccaneers19Panthers6
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Panthers 4
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 42
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 14 to the Panthers 27
Buccaneers22Panthers6
Field goal12 plays, from the Buccaneers 46 to the Panthers 3
Punt6 plays
Buccaneers28Panthers6
Buccaneers29Panthers6
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 43 to the Panthers 7
The period ended8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 48
4th quarter52 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Buccaneers 21
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 27
Turnover on downs4 plays
Buccaneers32Panthers6
Field goal5 plays, from the Panthers 45 to the Panthers 29
Punt5 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to midfield
The period ended17 plays, from the Panthers 7 to the Buccaneers 6
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -11.5
Closing total
44.5
Buccaneers moneyline
-503
Panthers moneyline
+399
Buccaneers closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 26.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 38 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 70°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the north-west; 0.01 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Buccaneers 7 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
Bruce Arians vs Matt Rhule
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
CAR +4% win prob
(1:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Grayson to CAR 7 for 62 yards (28-K.Taylor). Penalty on CAR-28-K.Taylor, Illegal Contact, declined.
1st · 5:00CAR +3% win prob(5:00) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 27-R.Jones to TB 45 for 13 yards (7-S.Thompson).
