Buccaneers 32 – Panthers 6 (2021 Week 16) | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability

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Buccaneers 32 – Panthers 6 (2021 Week 16) | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability | Dynatyze

Derived from the play-by-play, no model

The Read

7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.

low through week 16Against their seasonTendencies
TB's early-down pass rate, 41.7%, is past their previous low of 53.6% in week 7 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
- 2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
- A 2.3-swing turn from week 15.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
high through week 16Against their seasonTendencies
CAR's early-down pass rate, 74.5%, is past their previous high of 66.0% in week 6 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
low through week 16Against their seasonOver Expected
TB's pass rate over expected, −4.7 pts, is past their previous low of −0.9 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
low through week 16Against their seasonFourth Down
TB's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 20.0% in week 14 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 16.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.6 points.
reversed last weekAgainst last weekTendencies
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 10.0% in week 15 against 20.8% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points.

The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game

Was this normal for them?

7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.

their week-to-week swingall 32 teams

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 28 pts

Over Expected room →

Buccaneers-4.7 pts

leaned — ran more than the situation asked · −12.8 vs their 8.1 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.67× that swing) · 62 snaps

Panthers4.7 pts

inside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their -1.3 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 67 snaps

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 90%

Tendencies room →

Buccaneers41.7%

off script — ran early · −22.4 vs their 64.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−2.27× that swing) · 48 early downs

Panthers74.5%

leaned — passed early · +17.7 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+1.82× that swing) · 47 early downs

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32% to 99%

Fourth Down room →

Buccaneers0.0%

leaned — took the kick · −30.7 vs their 30.7%, and they swing ±20.6 week to week (−1.49× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls

Panthers—

Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.4%.

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%

Tendencies room →

Buccaneers20.8%

inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 53 dropbacks

Panthers6.1%

leaned — stayed blocked · −9.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 33 dropbacks

Play-action rate

Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.

Blitz rate sent

Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.

TB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 41.7%, 22.4 points below their season mean of 64.1% and 2.3 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.

The Game Day Roster

Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

48 dressed · 6 inactive

78Tristan WirfsT · Every snap100%67 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%67 snaps
76Donovan SmithT · Full-time96%64 snaps
74Ali MarpetG · Full-time96%64 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Full-time96%64 snaps
66Ryan JensenC · Full-time96%64 snaps
87Rob GronkowskiTE · Full-time90%60 snaps
81Antonio BrownWR · Heavy rotation79%53 snaps
15Cyril GraysonWR · Heavy rotation79%53 snaps
18Tyler JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation54%36 snaps
27Ronald JonesRB · Heavy rotation52%35 snaps
84Cameron BrateTE · Rotational46%31 snaps
21Ke'Shawn VaughnRB · Rotational36%24 snaps
80O.J. HowardTE · Rotational36%24 snaps
72Josh WellsT · Situational24%16 snaps
70Robert HainseyT · Situational4%3 snaps
10Scott MillerWR · Situational4%3 snaps
11Blaine GabbertQB · Situational4%3 snaps
6Le'Veon BellRB · Situational4%3 snaps
60Nick LeverettG · Situational4%3 snaps

Inactive · 6

Pierre DesirCBJason Pierre-PaulDEAntoine WinfieldFSBradley PinionPKyle TraskQBMike EvansWR

Carolina Panthers

48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used

68Sam TecklenburgC · Every snap100%70 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%70 snaps
73Michael JordanG · Every snap100%70 snaps
70Brady ChristensenT · Every snap100%70 snaps
67John MillerG · Every snap100%70 snaps
11Robby AndersonWR · Full-time96%67 snaps
2D.J. MooreWR · Full-time86%60 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Heavy rotation63%44 snaps
82Tommy TrembleTE · Heavy rotation59%41 snaps
88Terrace MarshallWR · Heavy rotation59%41 snaps
30Chuba HubbardRB · Rotational49%34 snaps
1Cam NewtonQB · Rotational37%26 snaps
80Ian ThomasTE · Rotational34%24 snaps
20Ameer AbdullahRB · Rotational33%23 snaps
84Stephen SullivanTE · Situational24%17 snaps
12Shi SmithWR · Situational21%15 snaps
39Reggie BonnafonRB · Situational20%14 snaps
45Giovanni RicciFB · Situational9%6 snaps
81C.J. SaundersWR · Situational7%5 snaps
13Alex EricksonWR · Situational4%3 snaps

Inactive · 6

Darryl JohnsonDEPhil HoskinsDTFrank HerronDTKamal MartinLBPhillip WalkerQBCameron ErvingT

Dressed, never took a snap · 1

Deonte BrownG

The Opportunity Board

What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.

Share card

Ke'Shawn Vaughn banked 6.7 more points than his own workload asked for.

25 points plotted

Player	Full PPR	Vs expected	Snap share	Routes	Targets	Air yards	Line
Antonio BrownWR · Alpha Receiver	20.1	−4.5	79%	82%	52%	53%	10/15, 101 yd
Ronald JonesRB · Bell Cow Back	16.1	−4.5	52%	36%	10%	0%	20 car, 65 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 16 yd
Tom BradyQB · Starter QB	14.4	−7.3	96%	—	0%	—	18/30, 232 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 11 yd
Ke'Shawn VaughnRB	13.0	+6.7	36%	42%	3%	0%	7 car, 70 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd
Cyril GraysonWR · Rotational Receiver	12.5	+6.5	79%	73%	10%	14%	1 car, 14 yd · 3/3, 81 yd
Shi SmithWR · Rotational Receiver	11.6	+3.7	21%	26%	12%	15%	3/5, 86 yd
Robbie ChosenWR · Featured Receiver	10.8	−5.0	96%	94%	23%	34%	5/10, 58 yd
D.J. MooreWR · Alpha Receiver	10.5	−8.0	86%	87%	28%	31%	5/12, 55 yd
Cameron BrateTE · Rotational Receiver	9.1	−1.0	46%	52%	14%	15%	2/4, 11 yd, 1 TD
Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB	8.7	−4.6	63%	—	0%	—	15/32, 190 yd · 1 car, 11 yd
Cam NewtonQB	4.6	−3.9	37%	—	0%	—	7/13, 61 yd, 1 INT · 5 car, 42 yd
Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver	4.2	+1.5	59%	51%	5%	2%	2/2, 22 yd
Ameer AbdullahRB · Receiving Back	3.9	−9.2	33%	38%	14%	6%	2 car, 1 yd · 3/6, 8 yd
Reggie BonnafonRB	3.6	+0.2	20%	21%	5%	1%	1 car, 4 yd · 2/2, 12 yd
Rob GronkowskiTE · Rotational Receiver	3.3	−2.6	90%	91%	7%	8%	1/2, 23 yd
Terrace MarshallWR · Rotational Receiver	1.6	+0.3	59%	62%	2%	1%	1/1, 6 yd
Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver	1.4	+0.1	34%	26%	2%	1%	1/1, 4 yd
Chuba HubbardRB	0.9	−3.1	49%	42%	2%	0%	6 car, 9 yd · 0/1, 0 yd
Stephen SullivanTE · Rotational Receiver	0.0	−1.5	24%	26%	2%	0%	0/1, 0 yd
Giovanni RicciTE · Rotational Receiver	0.0	−2.7	—	—	—	—	6 snaps — too few to rate.
Alex EricksonWR · Rotational Receiver	0.0	−1.5	—	—	—	—	3 snaps — too few to rate.
Blaine GabbertQB	0.0	−0.6	—	—	—	—	3 snaps — too few to rate.
Kenjon BarnerRB	0.0	—	—	—	—	—	Did not take a snap.
Scott MillerWR · Rotational Receiver	0.0	−2.1	—	—	—	—	3 snaps — too few to rate.
Tyler JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver	0.0	−1.2	54%	70%	0%	0%	No touches.
Le'Veon BellRB	-0.1	−1.2	—	—	—	—	3 snaps — too few to rate.

6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.

Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.

The Film Room · post-game

Post-game film: 184 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.

Possession by possession

The field rail

9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 87 yards from the CAR 7 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.

Every snap

Play stream

184 of 184 plays

Team

Quarter

Down

Play type

Expected points added

Event

Charted

Plays shown

184

EPA per play

-0.05

Success rate

35%

Yards

664

Who was on the field

Personnel groupings

Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.

Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.4489%

Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.0646%

Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17+0.4059%

Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0047%

Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.1414%

Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——

Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR4——

Panthers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——

Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——

Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——

Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——

Buccaneers0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——

snapsepapass rate

184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved

Every play

Ball

When

Play

Only

Who

184 plays

Bar length is win probability the play moved

1st quarter39 plays

Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 41

Buccaneers0Panthers3

Field goal11 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Buccaneers 4

FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Buccaneers6Panthers3
Buccaneers7Panthers3

Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 45

FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds

Intercepted7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 48

The period ended4 plays

2nd quarter51 plays

FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Buccaneers10Panthers3

Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 46 to the Panthers 18

FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.3 seconds
Buccaneers10Panthers6

Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 8

Buccaneers13Panthers6

Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 25

Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 33

FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Buccaneers19Panthers6

Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Panthers 4

Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 42

The period ended2 plays

3rd quarter42 plays

Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 14 to the Panthers 27

Buccaneers22Panthers6

Field goal12 plays, from the Buccaneers 46 to the Panthers 3

Punt6 plays

Buccaneers28Panthers6
Buccaneers29Panthers6

Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 43 to the Panthers 7

The period ended8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 48

4th quarter52 plays

Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Buccaneers 21

Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 27

Turnover on downs4 plays

Buccaneers32Panthers6

Field goal5 plays, from the Panthers 45 to the Panthers 29

Punt5 plays

Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to midfield

The period ended17 plays, from the Panthers 7 to the Buccaneers 6

Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published

Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Panthers, every play.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	18/30	232	1	0	0	+10.0
Blaine Gabbert	0/1	0	0	0	0	−1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	7	70	10.0	1	+2.9
Ronald Jones	20	65	3.3	1	−1.6
Cyril Grayson

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Antonio Brown	10	15	101	0	52%	+6.0
Cyril Grayson	3	3	81	0	10%	+5.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Mike Edwards	4	3	0.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	5	1	0.0	1	3
Shaquil Barrett	2	2	1.0	0	2
Carlton Davis

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	15/32	190	0	0	4	−11.5
Cam Newton	7/13	61	0	1	3	−9.7

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Cam Newton	5	42	8.4	+0.3
Sam Darnold	1	11	11.0	+0.7
Chuba Hubbard	6	9	1.5	−0.6
Reggie Bonnafon	1	4	4.0	−0.2
Ameer Abdullah	2	1	0.5	−1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Shi Smith	3	5	86	12%	−0.1
Robbie Chosen	5	10	58	23%	−0.6
D.J. Moore	5	12	55	28%	−0.6
Tommy Tremble	2	2	22	5%	+1.0
Reggie Bonnafon	2	2	12	5%	+0.8
Ameer Abdullah	3	6	8	14%	−4.8
Terrace Marshall	1	1	6	2%	−0.7
Ian Thomas	1	1	4	2%	−0.3
Chuba Hubbard	0	1	0	2%	−0.7
Giovanni Ricci	0	1	0	2%	−0.5
Stephen Sullivan	0	1	0	2%	−0.4
Alex Erickson	0	1	0	2%	−0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Shaq Thompson	3	5	0
Frankie Luvu	1	4	0
DaQuan Jones	2	3	0
Myles Hartsfield	4	1	1
Jeremy Chinn	3	2	0
Haason Reddick	1	2	0
Jermaine Carter	2	1	0
C.J. Henderson	2	1	1
Bravvion Roy	2	1	0
Keith Taylor	3	0	0

Scores & Schedule.

The game.

Scores & Schedule.

The game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32, Panthers 6 — and it was over early.

How the game was won

Highest-leverage plays

The margin ledger

Situational splits

The Read

Was this normal for them?

The Game Day Roster

Top performers

The Opportunity Board

Every snap, where it happened

The field rail

Play stream

Personnel groupings

Every play

1st quarter39 plays

2nd quarter51 plays

3rd quarter42 plays

4th quarter52 plays

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Rushing

Receiving

Defense (top contributors)

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Take it with you

Betting context

Game environment

Rushing

Receiving

Defense (top contributors)