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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · AT&T Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 16
It turned at Q1 11:42, 4th and 16 — 10.7 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Dallas Cowboys 56–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:42, Cowboys +10.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:42 · 4th and 16
Unnamed on the sheet
Cowboys
(11:42) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to WAS 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 1-D.Carter to WAS 28 for 7 yards (84-S.McKeon; 29-C.Goodwin).
10.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.55 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.49 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.34 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 10 of 15 on third down, against Commanders at 3 of 13 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(11:42) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to WAS 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 1-D.Carter to WAS 28 for 7 yards (84-S.McKeon; 29-C.Goodwin).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ezekiel Elliott's 5-yard touchdown catch with 7:47 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Ezekiel Elliott5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+70–710 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryCowboys
Cowboys ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 56 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 72 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, Cowboys 6.
Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
DAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 10.8% in week 15 against 24.3% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 15 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.4 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders-1.8 ptsright on their number · +2.0 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 56 snaps
Cowboys12.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.2 vs their 0.9 pts, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 72 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 90%
Tendencies room →Commanders58.5%right on their number · +4.3 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 41 early downs
Cowboys66.1%inside their normal wobble · +8.8 vs their 57.2%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 56 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -53% to 141%
Fourth Down room →Commanders66.7%leaned — went for it · +31.4 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±25.4 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Cowboys—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 44.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 34%
Tendencies room →Commanders10.6%inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Cowboys24.3%leaned — got home · +8.1 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+1.42× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
DAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.3%, 8.1 points above their season mean of 16.2% and 1.4 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 4 inactive
Inactive · 4
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
28/39, 330 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
18.8 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
7/22, 121 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-22.9 expected points added · -30.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Malik Turner banked 11.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 31.3 | +4.3 | 84% | — | 0% | — | 28/39, 330 yd, 4 TD · 4 car, 21 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Featured Receiver | 22.2 | +4.8 | 75% | 83% | 22% | 16% | 8/9, 82 yd, 1 TD |
| Amari CooperWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.5 | −0.3 | 71% | 77% | 27% | 38% | 7/11, 85 yd, 1 TD |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB | 17.2 | +7.6 | 58% | 60% | 2% | 0% | 9 car, 37 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 5 yd, 1 TD |
| Malik TurnerWR · Rotational Receiver | 17.2 | +11.2 | 18% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 3/3, 82 yd, 1 TD |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Committee Back | 13.8 | +4.6 | 37% | 35% | 13% | 4% | 6 car, 29 yd · 2/4, 29 yd, 1 TD |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.5 | +8.3 | 75% | 76% | 10% | 5% | 2/3, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| CeeDee LambWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.4 | +0.4 | 74% | 77% | 12% | 13% | 1 car, -2 yd · 4/5, 66 yd |
| Michael GallupWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | −5.3 | 66% | 72% | 12% | 21% | 2/5, 53 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | +3.5 | 22% | 27% | 7% | 20% | 2/2, 53 yd |
| Tony PollardRB | 7.0 | −3.3 | 34% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 8 car, 34 yd · 2/3, 16 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Featured Receiver | 7.0 | −2.7 | 92% | 92% | 20% | 47% | 3/6, 40 yd |
| Cooper RushQB | 6.8 | +4.7 | 16% | — | 0% | — | 2/3, 70 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 0 yd |
| Kyle AllenQB | 6.7 | +4.0 | 28% | — | 0% | — | 8/10, 67 yd, 1 TD |
| Taylor HeinickeQB · Starter QB | 4.7 | −2.5 | 72% | — | 0% | — | 7/22, 121 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Jaret PattersonRB | 3.3 | −1.1 | 25% | 14% | 0% | — | 9 car, 33 yd |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −2.8 | 36% | 30% | 7% | 8% | 2/3, 10 yd |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −0.6 | 22% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 1 car, 15 yd · 1/2, 5 yd |
| Adam HumphriesWR · Featured Receiver | 2.4 | −7.0 | 67% | 78% | 20% | 12% | 2/6, 4 yd |
| Dax MilneWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +1.5 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jonathan WilliamsRB | 2.1 | −2.4 | 40% | 51% | 7% | 0% | 3 car, 9 yd · 1/2, 2 yd |
| Corey ClementRB | 1.8 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ricky Seals-JonesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.6 | −0.4 | 45% | 43% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, -4 yd |
| Jeremy SprinkleTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 23% | 13% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Sean McKeonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 23% | 13% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Sammis ReyesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cam SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.3 | 62% | 59% | 10% | 13% | 0/3, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-A.Cooper to WAS 11 for 24 yards (20-B.McCain; 34-D.Roberts). Penalty on WAS-94-D.Payne, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q1 9:07 · Cowboys · 2nd & 6 at WAS 35 · gained 24 · +1.86 EP · +5.3% win probability
166 snaps placed · 7 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 89 yards from the DAL 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Commanders0
Cowboys6Commanders0Cowboys7Commanders0Cowboys13Commanders0Cowboys14Commanders0Cowboys20Commanders0Cowboys21Commanders6Cowboys21Commanders7Cowboys21Commanders7Cowboys27Commanders7Cowboys28Commanders7Cowboys34Commanders7Cowboys35Commanders7Cowboys41Commanders7Cowboys42Commanders7Cowboys48Commanders7Cowboys49Commanders7Cowboys55Commanders7Cowboys56Commanders13Cowboys56Commanders14Cowboys56Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Cowboys, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 7/22 | 121 | 1 | 2 | 4 | −22.9 |
| Kyle Allen | 8/10 | 67 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaret Patterson | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 7% | +3.5 |
| John Bates | 2 | 3 | 45 | 1 | 10% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Reaves | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby McCain | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamren Curl |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 28/39 | 330 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +18.8 |
| Cooper Rush | 2/3 | 70 | 1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_16_WAS_DAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 42.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 70 — over by 24.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Jonathan Williams | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| +4.2 |
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 20% | −0.5 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 4 | 29 | 1 | 13% | +2.5 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +1.5 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7% | −2.2 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 20% | −6.5 |
| Jonathan Williams | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7% | −9.2 |
| Cam Sims | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −2.4 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 3% | −1.2 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| David Mayo | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Darryl Roberts | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Toohill | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Ioannidis | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bunmi Rotimi | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +6.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 1 | +1.9 |
| Tony Pollard | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Corey Clement | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Cooper Rush | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 7 | 11 | 85 | 1 | 27% | +6.8 |
| Dalton Schultz | 8 | 9 | 82 | 1 | 22% | +6.1 |
| Malik Turner | 3 | 3 | 82 | 1 | 7% | +7.6 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 | 12% | +3.4 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 12% | +3.4 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 7% | +0.6 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 7% | −2.6 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2% | +2.3 |
| Terence Steele | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2% | +1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keanu Neal | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damontae Kazee | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leighton Vander Esch | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Wilson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Parsons | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelvin Joseph | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tarell Basham | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nahshon Wright | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demarcus Lawrence | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Maurice Canady | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
