2021 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 26, 2021 · AT&T Stadium

Washington Commanders

Dallas CowboysWinner

DAL -10.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓DomeCowboys closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 42.

Dallas Cowboys 56–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:42, DAL +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:42WAS — DAL DAL ball · 4th & 16DAL 68%

(11:42) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to WAS 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 1-D.Carter to WAS 28 for 7 yards (84-S.McKeon; 29-C.Goodwin).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:42DAL +11% win prob(11:42) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to WAS 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 1-D.Carter to WAS 28 for 7 yards (84-S.McKeon; 29-C.Goodwin).
Q1 · 12:20WAS +7% win prob(12:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 1-C.Wilson to DAL 39 for 7 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by DAL-19-A.Cooper at DAL 38. 19-A.Cooper to DAL 32 for -6 yards (36-D.Johnson).
Q1 · 11:27DAL +4% win prob(11:27) 21-E.Elliott right tackle to DAL 38 for 9 yards (51-D.Mayo).
Q1 · 10:10DAL +4% win prob(10:10) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to WAS 39 for 10 yards (51-D.Mayo; 31-K.Curl).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Cowboys
Offensive plays	56	72
Total yards	258	499 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	6.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.34	0.34 (edge)
Success rate	30%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.49	0.55 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.05
Third downs	3/13	10/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	3 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

28/39, 330 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

18.8 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

7/22, 121 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-22.9 expected points added · -30.9% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

9 att, 37 yds, 1 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Tony PollardRB

8 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Amari CooperWR

7/11 for 85 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Dalton SchultzTE

8/9 for 82 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 25	8	13	3:27	Punt
2	WAS	WAS 28	1	0	0:06	Interception
3	DAL	DAL 29	10	71	3:45	Touchdown
4	WAS	WAS 25	7	20	1:34	Punt
5	DAL	DAL 26	9	74	3:00	Touchdown
6	WAS	WAS 40	4	3	0:51	Defensive touchdown
7	WAS	WAS 25	7	70	2:32	Touchdown
8	DAL	DAL 25	10	75	4:11	Touchdown
9	WAS	WAS 25	7	14	4:05	Punt
10	DAL	DAL 20	10	80	3:58	Touchdown
11	WAS	WAS 25	6	22	0:49	Punt
12	DAL	DAL 11	13	76	1:37	Touchdown
13	WAS	WAS 25	2	0	0:05	End of half
14	WAS	WAS 25	5	0	1:09	Punt
15	DAL	DAL 22	4	-6	1:57	Punt
16	WAS	WAS 37	4	4	1:41	Punt
17	DAL	DAL 6	7	17	2:12	Punt
18	WAS	WAS 15	4	-5	1:55	Defensive touchdown
19	WAS	WAS 25	8	49	3:51	Turnover on downs
20	DAL	DAL 21	6	79	2:59	Touchdown
21	WAS	WAS 25	7	20	2:49	Punt
22	DAL	DAL 1	4	9	1:39	Punt
23	WAS	WAS 39	13	61	7:02	Touchdown
24	DAL	DAL 22	5	11	2:46	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 80 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	7/22	121	1	2	4	-22.9
Kyle Allen	8/10	67	1	0	1	4.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jaret Patterson	9	33	3.7	-2.0
Antonio Gibson	6	29	4.8	0.5
DeAndre Carter	1	15	15.0	0.9
Jonathan Williams	3	9	3.0	-0.3
Taylor Heinicke	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dyami Brown	2	2	53	0	7%	3.5
John Bates	2	3	45	1	10%	4.2
Terry McLaurin	3	6	40	0	20%	-0.5
Antonio Gibson	2	4	29	1	13%	2.5
Dax Milne	1	1	14	0	3%	1.5
DeAndre Carter	1	2	5	0	7%	-2.2
Adam Humphries	2	6	4	0	20%	-6.5
Jonathan Williams	1	2	2	0	7%	-9.2
Cam Sims	0	3	0	0	10%	-2.4
Ricky Seals-Jones	1	1	-4	0	3%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeremy Reaves	6	5	0.0	0
Bobby McCain	7	3	0.0	0
Kamren Curl	4	4	0.0	0
David Mayo	5	3	0.0	0
Daron Payne	3	2	1.0	0
Kendall Fuller	3	1	0.0	1
Darryl Roberts	2	2	0.0	0
Casey Toohill	2	1	0.0	0
Matt Ioannidis	1	2	1.0	0
Bunmi Rotimi	1	1	0.0	0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	28/39	330	4	0	3	18.8
Cooper Rush	2/3	70	1	0	0	6.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	9	37	4.1	1	1.9
Tony Pollard	8	34	4.3	0	-0.5
Dak Prescott	4	21	5.3	0	1.1
Corey Clement	4	18	4.5	0	-1.4
Cooper Rush	2	0	0.0	0	-0.2
CeeDee Lamb	1	-2	-2.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	7	11	85	1	27%	6.8
Dalton Schultz	8	9	82	1	22%	6.1
Malik Turner	3	3	82	1	7%	7.6
CeeDee Lamb	4	5	66	0	12%	3.4
Michael Gallup	2	5	53	0	12%	3.4
Tony Pollard	2	3	16	0	7%	0.6
Cedrick Wilson	2	3	10	0	7%	-2.6
Ezekiel Elliott	1	1	5	1	2%	2.3
Terence Steele	1	1	1	1	2%	1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Keanu Neal	3	2	0.0	0	0
Damontae Kazee	3	2	0.0	0	0
Leighton Vander Esch	2	2	0.0	0	0
Donovan Wilson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Micah Parsons	3	0	1.0	0	0
Kelvin Joseph	3	0	0.0	0	1
Tarell Basham	0	2	0.5	0	0
Nahshon Wright	2	0	0.0	0	0
Demarcus Lawrence	2	0	1.0	1	1
Maurice Canady	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -10.5
Closing total: 45.5
WAS moneyline: +367
DAL moneyline: -457

Cowboys closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 42.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 70 — over by 24.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: WAS 7 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Mike McCarthy

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.