2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · AT&T Stadium

Arizona CardinalsWinner

Dallas Cowboys

DAL -6.5 upsetU 53 ✓DomeCowboys closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 25–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 9:26, DAL +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:26ARI — DAL ARI ball · 3rd & 9DAL 67%

(9:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green to DAL 3 for 42 yards (7-T.Diggs).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:26DAL +14% win prob(9:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green to DAL 3 for 42 yards (7-T.Diggs).
Q4 · 10:42ARI +12% win prob(10:42) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to DAL 39 for 4 yards (9-I.Simmons). FUMBLES (9-I.Simmons), RECOVERED by ARI-45-D.Gardeck at DAL 44.
Q1 · 2:39ARI +12% win prob(2:39) 2-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q3 · 12:21DAL +10% win prob(12:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 13-C.Kirk to DAL 23 for 43 yards (26-J.Lewis).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Cowboys
Offensive plays	70	58
Total yards	402 (edge)	303
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	5.2
Expected points added / play	0.16 (edge)	0.09
Success rate	46%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.29 (edge)	0.23
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.36
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

26/38, 263 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.4 expected points added · +7.0% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

24/38, 226 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

13.0 expected points added · -8.3% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

Chase EdmondsRB

18 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

-5.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

9 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Christian KirkWR

6/9 for 79 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 3.0 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

A.J. GreenWR

3/6 for 74 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 20	9	32	4:02	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 16	9	83	3:12	Turnover on downs
3	DAL	DAL 25	13	55	5:11	Turnover on downs
4	ARI	ARI 33	4	5	1:29	Punt
5	DAL	DAL 31	4	8	2:14	Punt
6	ARI	ARI 9	16	87	8:25	Touchdown
7	DAL	DAL 23	13	67	4:02	Touchdown
8	ARI	ARI 25	11	36	1:25	Turnover on downs
9	ARI	ARI 25	10	75	5:21	Touchdown
10	DAL	DAL 22	5	0	0:54	Punt
11	ARI	ARI 43	9	49	4:44	Turnover on downs
12	DAL	DAL 25	5	1	0:48	Punt
13	ARI	ARI 23	4	-13	1:32	Punt
14	DAL	ARI 31	9	34	2:52	Touchdown
15	ARI	ARI 25	6	16	1:54	Punt
16	DAL	DAL 10	3	29	1:25	Fumble
17	ARI	DAL 44	5	9	1:58	Turnover on downs
18	DAL	DAL 25	10	77	3:50	Touchdown
19	ARI	ARI 25	11	55	4:42	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 87 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	26/38	263	2	0	1	9.4
Chris Banjo	1/1	23	0	0	0	3.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chase Edmonds	18	53	2.9	-5.1
Kyler Murray	9	44	4.9	-1.1
Greg Dortch	1	24	24.0	1.5
Jonathan Ward	2	3	1.5	-1.2
Eno Benjamin	2	3	1.5	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	6	9	79	0	24%	3.0
A.J. Green	3	6	74	0	16%	5.7
Zach Ertz	7	9	41	0	24%	-1.9
Antoine Wesley	4	5	30	2	14%	2.3
Chase Edmonds	5	6	29	0	16%	2.8
Jonathan Ward	1	1	23	0	3%	3.7
Greg Dortch	1	1	10	0	3%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Isaiah Simmons	8	2	0.0	0
Byron Murphy	7	0	0.0	1
Kevin Peterson	5	2	0.0	0
Jalen Thompson	3	3	0.0	0
Budda Baker	3	0	1.0	2
Dennis Gardeck	1	2	0.0	0
Chandler Jones	3	0	0.0	0
Zach Allen	1	1	0.0	1
Zaven Collins	1	1	0.0	1
Corey Peters	1	1	0.0	1

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	24/38	226	3	0	1	13.0
Cedrick Wilson	1/1	31	0	0	0	1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dak Prescott	5	20	4.0	-4.3
Ezekiel Elliott	9	16	1.8	-5.2
Tony Pollard	3	9	3.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dalton Schultz	6	10	54	0	26%	3.2
CeeDee Lamb	3	4	51	0	11%	2.8
Tony Pollard	3	5	49	0	13%	1.6
Michael Gallup	3	4	36	1	11%	3.8
Cedrick Wilson	6	6	35	1	16%	6.7
Amari Cooper	3	7	18	1	18%	-2.0
Ezekiel Elliott	1	2	14	0	5%	1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Leighton Vander Esch	7	2	0.0	0
Jourdan Lewis	5	0	0.0	0
Donovan Wilson	3	2	0.0	0
Micah Parsons	4	1	0.0	0
Randy Gregory	3	2	0.0	0
Jayron Kearse	4	1	0.0	1
Tarell Basham	2	2	0.0	0
Dorance Armstrong	2	2	1.0	1
Carlos Watkins	1	2	0.0	0
Trevon Diggs	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -6.5
Closing total: 53
ARI moneyline: +225
DAL moneyline: -262

Cowboys closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 53; the game landed 47 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: ARI 8 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Mike McCarthy