For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Arizona Cardinals 25, Cowboys 22 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q1 9:26, 3rd and 9, on A.J. Green — 14.4 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:26 · 3rd and 9
A.J. Green
Cardinals
(9:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green to DAL 3 for 42 yards (7-T.Diggs).
Dome
Cowboys closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 25–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 9:26, Cardinals +14.4% win probability on one snap.
14.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Greg ZuerleinCardinalsQ1 2:39(2:39) 2-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
11.8pts
Dak PrescottCardinalsQ4 10:42(10:42) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to DAL 39 for 4 yards (9-I.Simmons). FUMBLES (9-I.Simmons), RECOVERED by ARI-45-D.Gardeck at DAL 44.
12.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cardinals won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 4 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.36 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cardinals won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Cowboys at 3 of 11 on third down.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Cardinals at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Cardinals173 of 185 plays carry both curves
(9:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green to DAL 3 for 42 yards (7-T.Diggs).
Swing −14.4 for CowboysExpected points −4.66 for CowboysThe model had Cardinals 17 points higher than the market did.play 16
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:26DAL +14% win prob(9:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green to DAL 3 for 42 yards (7-T.Diggs).
4th · 10:42ARI +12% win prob(10:42) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to DAL 39 for 4 yards (9-I.Simmons). FUMBLES (9-I.Simmons), RECOVERED by ARI-45-D.Gardeck at DAL 44.
1st · 2:39ARI +12% win prob(2:39) 2-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
3rd · 12:21DAL +10% win prob(12:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 13-C.Kirk to DAL 23 for 43 yards (26-J.Lewis).
2nd · 14:03DAL +10% win prob(14:03) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to ARI 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 9 for -5 yards (29-C.Goodwin).
2nd · 10:33DAL +9% win prob(10:33) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 31-C.Banjo. 31-C.Banjo pass deep middle to 29-J.Ward to DAL 41 for 23 yards (25-N.Wright). Penalty on DAL-25-N.Wright, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Prater's 24-yard field goal with 7:49 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:49Matt Prater·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.BrewerLead never changed again+33–0
3rd4:04Matt Prater·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+322–7
4th13:53Cedrick Wilson·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+722–14
4th8:36Matt Prater·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+325–14
4th4:48Amari Cooper·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott · two-point good+825–22
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryCowboys
Cardinals6–1Cowboys
402Total yards303
5.7Yards per play5.2
46%Success rate50%
47%Third-down rate27%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays4
22First downs18
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Cardinals ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Cardinals: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.09Cowboys: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.29Cardinals: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.23Cowboys: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Cardinals: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.36Cowboys: −0.36 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 70 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 58 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 6, Cowboys 3.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 24.3% in week 16 against 9.5% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −2.7 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Cowboys9.5%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.7 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 55.8 points above their season mean of 44.2% and 1.5 times their own 38.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
79Josh JonesG · Every snap100%77 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%77 snaps
73Max GarciaC · Every snap100%77 snaps
67Justin PughG · Every snap100%77 snaps
61Rodney HudsonC · Every snap100%77 snaps
1Kyler MurrayQB · Every snap100%77 snaps
86Zach ErtzTE · Full-time91%70 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Full-time90%69 snaps
2Chase EdmondsRB · Full-time81%62 snaps
18A.J. GreenWR · Full-time81%62 snaps
85Antoine WesleyWR · Heavy rotation57%44 snaps
81Darrell DanielsTE · Rotational42%32 snaps
83Greg DortchWR · Situational22%17 snaps
26Eno BenjaminRB · Situational12%9 snaps
29Jonathan WardRB · Situational10%8 snaps
41David WellsTE · Situational10%8 snaps
17Andy IsabellaWR · Situational5%4 snaps
Inactive · 6
Marco WilsonCBJordan PhillipsDEZach KerrDTJames ConnerRBDemetrius HarrisTERondale MooreWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Marcus HenryCColt McCoyQBTrace McSorleyQB
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
70Zack MartinG · Every snap100%64 snaps
63Tyler BiadaszC · Every snap100%64 snaps
52Connor WilliamsG · Every snap100%64 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap100%64 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
77Tyron SmithT · Every snap100%64 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Full-time94%60 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Full-time91%58 snaps
88CeeDee LambWR · Full-time88%56 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Heavy rotation70%45 snaps
1Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational47%30 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Rotational41%26 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Rotational30%19 snaps
87Jeremy SprinkleTE · Situational17%11 snaps
84Sean McKeonTE · Situational8%5 snaps
66Connor McGovernG · Situational8%5 snaps
85Noah BrownWR · Situational6%4 snaps
78Terence SteeleT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Maurice CanadyCBMatt FarniokGWill GrierQBIsrael MukuamuSSSimi FehokoWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass+14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green to DAL 3 for 42 yards (7-T.Diggs).
Q1 9:26 · Cardinals · 3rd & 9 at DAL 45 · gained 42 · +4.66 EP · +14.4% win probability
171 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 91 yards from the ARI 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
43%
Yards
702
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.0076%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1965%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.1047%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.4663%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.3620%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cardinals 48
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Cardinals3Cowboys0
Field goal10 plays, from the Cardinals 16 to the Cowboys 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
No good14 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cardinals 20
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 33 to the Cardinals 38
The period ended3 plays, from the Cowboys 31 to the Cowboys 36
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt3 plays
Cardinals9Cowboys0
Cardinals10Cowboys0
Touchdown19 plays, from the Cardinals 9 to the Cowboys 1
Cardinals10Cowboys6
Cardinals10Cowboys7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Cardinals 21
Cardinals13Cowboys7
Field goal15 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cowboys 35
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter43 plays
Cardinals19Cowboys7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cowboys 19
Punt6 plays
Cardinals22Cowboys7
Field goal11 plays, from the Cardinals 43 to the Cowboys 8
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 26
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 23 to the Cardinals 24
The period ended5 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Cardinals 19
4th quarter44 plays
Cardinals22Cowboys13
Cardinals22Cowboys14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 2
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 41
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Cowboys 36
Cardinals25Cowboys14
Field goal5 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Cowboys 20
Cardinals25Cowboys20
Cardinals25Cowboys22
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cardinals 4
The period ended14 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cowboys 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -6.5
Closing total
53
Cardinals moneyline
+225
Cowboys moneyline
-262
Cowboys closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 53; the game landed 47 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Cardinals 8 days · Cowboys 7 days
Coaches
Kliff Kingsbury vs Mike McCarthy
2nd · 1:30DAL +8% win prob(1:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 13-M.Gallup for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-C.Jones]. DAL-13-M.Gallup was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
4th · 3:01DAL +8% win prob(3:01) (Shotgun) 2-C.Edmonds right end to DAL 35 for 11 yards (11-M.Parsons).
