2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · New Era Field

Atlanta Falcons

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -14 pushU 46.5 ✓26°FBills closed -14 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Buffalo Bills 29–15. Biggest swing: Q3 14:14, ATL +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 14:14ATL — BUF BUF ball · 3rd & 7BUF 72%

(14:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun (3-M.Walker) at BUF 43. 54-F.Oluokun to BUF 25 for 18 yards (73-D.Dawkins). Pass tipped prior to INT.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 14:14ATL +15% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun (3-M.Walker) at BUF 43. 54-F.Oluokun to BUF 25 for 18 yards (73-D.Dawkins). Pass tipped prior to INT.
Q3 · 6:02BUF +7% win prob(6:02) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:15ATL +7% win prob(1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 11-C.Beasley INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Terrell at ATL 37. 24-A.Terrell pushed ob at ATL 44 for 7 yards (13-G.Davis).
Q2 · 0:13BUF +6% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 14-R.Gage to BUF 6 for 24 yards (58-M.Milano).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Bills
Offensive plays	50	69
Total yards	265	356 (edge)
Yards per play	5.3 (edge)	5.2
Expected points added / play	-0.21	0.09 (edge)
Success rate	44%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.43	-0.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11	0.26 (edge)
Third downs	1/7	7/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	28 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.21.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

13/23, 197 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-9.7 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

11/26, 120 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-6.8 expected points added · -14.0% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

23 att, 110 yds, 2 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

15 att, 81 yds, 2 TD

10.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Kyle PittsTE

2/4 for 69 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

5/9 for 52 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · -2.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	8	29	3:56	Punt
2	ATL	ATL 33	5	-4	1:39	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 31	16	72	6:10	Touchdown
4	ATL	ATL 25	3	-7	0:48	Fumble
5	BUF	ATL 18	7	18	1:52	Touchdown
6	ATL	ATL 25	11	45	5:27	Turnover on downs
7	BUF	BUF 23	13	67	6:48	Interception
8	ATL	ATL 20	6	80	1:32	Touchdown
9	BUF	BUF 25	3	12	0:42	Interception
10	ATL	ATL 44	7	45	1:06	Turnover on downs
11	BUF	BUF 29	4	3	0:59	Interception
12	ATL	BUF 25	4	-7	1:29	Punt
13	BUF	BUF 20	12	82	6:36	Touchdown
14	ATL	ATL 24	7	17	2:52	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 35	13	70	7:18	Touchdown
16	ATL	ATL 25	12	67	5:04	Turnover on downs
17	BUF	BUF 16	10	32	5:42	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 82 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	13/23	197	0	0	5	-9.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mike Davis	8	42	5.3	1	3.4
Cordarrelle Patterson	9	28	3.1	0	-1.7
Qadree Ollison	3	19	6.3	0	0.4
Matt Ryan	2	7	3.5	0	-3.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Kyle Pitts	2	4	69	20%	2.0
Russell Gage	3	5	50	25%	1.9
Parker Hesse	3	3	31	15%	1.8
Cordarrelle Patterson	2	2	24	10%	1.9
Mike Davis	1	2	15	10%	-0.2
Olamide Zaccheaus	2	3	8	15%	-2.0
Frank Darby	0	1	0	5%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	4	6	0.0	1	2
A.J. Terrell	6	1	1.0	1	1
Shawn Williams	3	4	0.0	0	0
Deion Jones	3	2	0.0	0	0
Grady Jarrett	2	3	0.0	0	0
Kendall Sheffield	2	2	0.0	0	0
Anthony Rush	1	3	0.0	0	0
Duron Harmon	2	2	0.0	1	2
Dante Fowler	1	1	0.0	0	0
Mykal Walker	2	0	0.0	0	1

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	11/26	120	0	3	0	-6.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devin Singletary	23	110	4.8	2	2.3
Josh Allen	15	81	5.4	2	10.7
Zack Moss	5	39	7.8	0	1.1
Isaiah McKenzie	1	3	3.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	5	9	52	38%	-2.6
Gabe Davis	3	3	40	13%	4.8
Cole Beasley	2	6	22	25%	-5.9
Isaiah McKenzie	1	2	6	8%	-0.1
Devin Singletary	0	1	0	4%	-0.5
Dion Dawkins	0	1	0	4%	-0.2
Dawson Knox	0	2	0	8%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Micah Hyde	3	3	0.0	0
Dane Jackson	3	2	0.0	1
Matt Milano	3	1	0.0	1
Levi Wallace	2	2	0.0	1
Harrison Phillips	1	3	1.0	0
Taron Johnson	2	1	1.0	0
Tremaine Edmunds	2	1	0.0	0
Ed Oliver	1	2	1.0	0
Jordan Poyer	2	1	0.0	0
Eli Ankou	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -14
Closing total: 46.5
ATL moneyline: +625
BUF moneyline: -871

Bills closed -14 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 44 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 26°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: ATL 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Sean McDermott