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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 17
It turned at Q3 14:14, 3rd and 7, on Foyesade Oluokun — 14.9 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:14 · 3rd and 7
Foyesade Oluokun
Falcons
(14:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun (3-M.Walker) at BUF 43. 54-F.Oluokun to BUF 25 for 18 yards (73-D.Dawkins). Pass tipped prior to INT.
Buffalo Bills 29–15. Biggest swing: Q3 14:14, Falcons +14.9% win probability on one snap.
14.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Bills won this one — 7 of 11 on third down, against Falcons at 1 of 7 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bills won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Falcons at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Bills at 3 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.21 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 15.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(14:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun (3-M.Walker) at BUF 43. 54-F.Oluokun to BUF 25 for 18 yards (73-D.Dawkins). Pass tipped prior to INT.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Devin Singletary's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 6:02 left in the 3rd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Falconssafetysafetytwo points, and the ball back+22–0
Devin Singletary6-yd TD run6-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+815–228 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 50 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Bills’s 69 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 5, Bills 5.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's pass rate over expected, −9.8 pts, is past their previous low of −6.1 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
BUF's early-down pass rate, 39.3%, is past their previous low of 44.6% in week 4 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
BUF's sack or hit rate, 26.7%, is past their previous high of 20.8% in week 2 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 17.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-2.6 ptsright on their number · −1.4 vs their -1.2 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 50 snaps
Bills-9.8 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −14.2 vs their 4.4 pts, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.98× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 90%
Tendencies room →Falcons52.4%right on their number · −4.0 vs their 56.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 42 early downs
Bills39.3%leaned — ran early · −20.9 vs their 60.2%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−1.76× that swing) · 56 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25% to 100%
Fourth Down room →Falcons—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.2%.
Bills—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 34%
Tendencies room →Falcons9.4%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±3.9 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bills26.7%leaned — got home · +11.2 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.58× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
BUF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.8 pts, 14.2 points below their season mean of 4.4 pts and 2.0 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · ATL
13/23, 197 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-9.7 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
11/26, 120 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
-6.8 expected points added · -14.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Devin Singletary banked 4.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 23.0 | +4.8 | 80% | 75% | 4% | 1% | 23 car, 110 yd, 2 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 20.9 | −11.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 11/26, 120 yd, 3 INT · 15 car, 81 yd, 2 TD |
| Mike DavisRB · Committee Back | 12.7 | +2.8 | 51% | 50% | 10% | 0% | 8 car, 42 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 15 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.2 | −9.3 | 79% | 81% | 38% | 47% | 5/9, 52 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Featured Receiver | 8.9 | +2.9 | 51% | 47% | 20% | 20% | 2/4, 69 yd |
| Russell GageWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.0 | −0.5 | 79% | 77% | 25% | 37% | 3/5, 50 yd |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Committee Back | 7.2 | −1.7 | 51% | 50% | 10% | 0% | 9 car, 28 yd · 2/2, 24 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 7.0 | +2.1 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Matt RyanQB · Starter QB | 6.6 | −5.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/23, 197 yd · 2 car, 7 yd |
| Cole BeasleyWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.2 | −5.9 | 49% | 56% | 25% | 26% | 2/6, 22 yd |
| Parker HesseTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | +1.8 | 70% | 67% | 15% | 6% | 3/3, 31 yd |
| Zack MossRB | 3.9 | +1.2 | 21% | 13% | 0% | — | 5 car, 39 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −1.4 | 96% | 90% | 15% | 10% | 2/3, 8 yd |
| Qadree OllisonRB | 1.9 | +0.6 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −3.7 | 32% | 25% | 8% | 3% | 1 car, 3 yd · 1/2, 6 yd |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Keith SmithRB | 0.0 | — | 23% | 20% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Frank DarbyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Taiwan JonesRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.3 | 88% | 84% | 8% | 9% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Marquez StevensonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jake KumerowWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 17% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:18) 19-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to BUF 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 12 for no gain (35-A.Williams). FUMBLES (35-A.Williams), touched at BUF 2, recovered by BUF-15-J.Kumerow at BUF -1. 15-J.Kumerow tackled in End Zone, SAFETY.
Q1 11:18 · Falcons · 4th & 6 at BUF 46 · gained nothing · +2.19 EP · +15.2% win probability
150 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 80 yards from the ATL 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Falcons2
Bills0Falcons2Bills6Falcons2Bills7Falcons2Bills13Falcons2Bills14Falcons5Bills14Falcons11Bills14Falcons12Bills14Falcons15Bills14Falcons15Bills20Falcons15Bills22Falcons15Bills28Falcons15Bills29Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 13/23 | 197 | 0 | 0 | 5 | −9.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 1 | +3.4 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Qadree Ollison | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 4 | 69 | 0 | 20% | +2.0 |
| Russell Gage | 3 | 5 | 50 | 0 | 25% | +1.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| A.J. Terrell | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Shawn Williams | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deion Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 11/26 | 120 | 0 | 3 | 0 | −6.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_17_ATL_BUF
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -14 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 44 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Parker Hesse | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 15% | +1.8 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 10% | +1.9 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 10% | −0.2 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 15% | −2.0 |
| Frank Darby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Grady Jarrett | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Sheffield | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Rush | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duron Harmon | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Dante Fowler | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mykal Walker | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 |
| 110 |
| 4.8 |
| 2 |
| +2.3 |
| Josh Allen | 15 | 81 | 5.4 | 2 | +10.7 |
| Zack Moss | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 9 | 52 | 0 | 38% | −2.6 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 13% | +4.8 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 25% | −5.9 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | −0.1 |
| Devin Singletary | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Dion Dawkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Dawson Knox | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Hyde | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Jackson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Matt Milano | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Levi Wallace | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harrison Phillips | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Oliver | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Ankou | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
