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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Carolina Panthers 10 at New Orleans Saints 18. Final.
Saints -7 ✓U 37 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 17
New Orleans Saints 18, Panthers 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 1:14, 3rd and 11, on Marquez Callaway — 10.0 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:14 · 3rd and 11
Marquez Callaway
Saints
(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass deep left to 1-M.Callaway to NO 31 for 28 yards (28-K.Taylor). Pass 24, YAC 4
Dome
Saints closed -7 and covered, winning by 8.
New Orleans Saints 18–10. Biggest swing: Q2 1:14, Saints +10.0% win probability on one snap.
10.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Sam DarnoldSaintsQ2 10:14(10:14) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CAR 12 for -9 yards (26-P.Williams). FUMBLES (26-P.Williams) [26-P.Williams], touched at CAR 12, RECOVERED by NO-92-M.Davenport at CAR 14. 92-M.Davenport to CAR 13 for 1 yard (73-M.Jordan).
9.0pts
Lirim HajrullahuSaintsQ4 12:09(12:09) 3-L.Hajrullahu 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.
8.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.04 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.48 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.39 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Saints won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Panthers at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Panthers149 of 161 plays carry both curves
(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass deep left to 1-M.Callaway to NO 31 for 28 yards (28-K.Taylor). Pass 24, YAC 4
Swing +10.0 for SaintsExpected points +1.18 for SaintsThe model had Panthers 15 points higher than the market did.play 75
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:14NO +10% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass deep left to 1-M.Callaway to NO 31 for 28 yards (28-K.Taylor). Pass 24, YAC 4
2nd · 10:14CAR +9% win prob(10:14) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CAR 12 for -9 yards (26-P.Williams). FUMBLES (26-P.Williams) [26-P.Williams], touched at CAR 12, RECOVERED by NO-92-M.Davenport at CAR 14. 92-M.Davenport to CAR 13 for 1 yard (73-M.Jordan).
4th · 12:09CAR +9% win prob(12:09) 3-L.Hajrullahu 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.
3rd · 9:35CAR +8% win prob(9:35) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NO-7-T.Hill, Intentional Grounding, 9 yards, enforced at CAR 26. Penalty on NO, Illegal Formation, declined. Carolina challenged the spot of a foul ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NO-7-T.Hill, Intentional Grounding, 13 yards, enforced at CAR 26. Penalty on NO, Illegal Formation, declined.
1st · 7:27NO +7% win prob(7:27) 7-T.Hill pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at CAR 46 for 29 yards (95-D.Brown). Pass -7, YAC 36
2nd · 2:04
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brett Maher's 33-yard field goal with 2:10 left in the 3rd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st8:09Lirim Hajrullahu·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap J.Jansen+33–0
1st4:09Brett Maher·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+33–3
2nd8:45Brett Maher·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+310–6
2nd0:02Brett Maher·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+310–9
3rd2:10Brett Maher·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+310–12
4th7:55Alvin Kamara·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Taysom Hillfrom Taysom Hill · kick no good, hit right upright+610–18
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categorySaints
Panthers2–7Saints
178Total yards283
3.0Yards per play5.2
34%Success rate35%
43%Third-down rate38%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays5
15First downs14
7Sacks taken2
2Turnovers0
The read
Saints ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.30Panthers: −0.30 expected points added per play
−0.13Saints: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.48Panthers: −0.48 expected points added per play
+0.04Saints: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Panthers: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.39Saints: −0.39 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 59 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Saints’s 54 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 2, Saints 3.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's pass rate over expected turned over: +4.7 pts in week 16 against −9.4 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 74.5% in week 16 against 51.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +2.9 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Saints26.5%
leaned — got home · +9.0 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.41× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.5%, 9.0 points above their season mean of 17.4% and 1.4 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Lirim Hajrullahu−17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(12:09) 3-L.Hajrullahu 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.
Q4 12:09 · Panthers · 4th & 8 at NO 29 · gained nothing · -3.78 EP · −17.0% win probability
148 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 81 yards from the CAR 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
-0.20
Success rate
33%
Yards
458
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.3270%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19-0.1258%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.3160%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.0222%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.1425%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.2914%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.4567%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.4260%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Panthers3Saints0
Field goal13 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Saints 12
Panthers3Saints3
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Panthers 23
The period ended10 plays, from the Panthers 19 to the Panthers 47
2nd quarter50 plays
Panthers9Saints3
Panthers10Saints3
Touchdown5 plays, from midfield to the Saints 21
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 37
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 21
Panthers10Saints6
Field goal4 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Panthers 9
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 29
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Panthers 47
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Panthers 32
Panthers10Saints9
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 4 to the Panthers 23
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Panthers 26
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 8 to the Panthers 10
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 47 to the Panthers 43
Punt4 plays
Panthers10Saints12
Field goal6 plays, from the Panthers 38 to the Panthers 15
The period ended6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to midfield
4th quarter39 plays
No good6 plays, from the Saints 42 to the Saints 29
Panthers10Saints18
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 37 to the Panthers 12
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
Intercepted13 plays, from the Panthers 23 to the Panthers 44
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -7
Closing total
37
Panthers moneyline
+238
Saints moneyline
-279
Saints closed -7 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 37; the game landed 28 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Panthers 7 days · Saints 6 days
Coaches
Matt Rhule vs Sean Payton
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NO +7% win prob
(2:04) 10-L.Edwards punts 62 yards to NO 6, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Harris ran ob at NO 27 for 21 yards (4-J.Carter). PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 4 yards, enforced at NO 8. Penalty on NO-32-B.Thompson, Offensive Holding, declined.
1st · 12:21NO +7% win prob(12:21) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 80-I.Thomas pushed ob at NO 26 for 21 yards (29-P.Adebo). Pass 4, YAC 17
3rd · 5:48CAR +7% win prob(5:48) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CAR 9 for 1 yard (70-C.Ringo; 95-A.Huggins).
