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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 17
It turned at Q2 1:14, 3rd and 11, on Marquez Callaway — 10.0 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New Orleans Saints 18–10. Biggest swing: Q2 1:14, Saints +10.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:14 · 3rd and 11
Marquez Callaway
Saints
(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass deep left to 1-M.Callaway to NO 31 for 28 yards (28-K.Taylor). Pass 24, YAC 4
10.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.04 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.48 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.39 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Saints won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Panthers at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass deep left to 1-M.Callaway to NO 31 for 28 yards (28-K.Taylor). Pass 24, YAC 4
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Brett Maher's 33-yard field goal with 2:10 left in the 3rd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Brett Maher33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+310–12Alvin Kamara12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Taysom Hill · kick no good, hit right upright+610–187 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categorySaints
Saints ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 59 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Saints’s 54 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 2, Saints 3.
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CAR's pass rate over expected turned over: +4.7 pts in week 16 against −9.4 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 74.5% in week 16 against 51.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points. · −0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers-9.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.0 vs their -1.3 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 59 snaps
Saints-4.6 ptsright on their number · +1.7 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 82%
Tendencies room →Panthers51.1%inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 45 early downs
Saints48.8%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 50.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32% to 99%
Fourth Down room →Panthers—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.4%.
Saints—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →Panthers18.8%right on their number · +2.9 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Saints26.5%leaned — got home · +9.0 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.41× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.5%, 9.0 points above their season mean of 17.4% and 1.4 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
17/28, 222 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
0.9 expected points added · +5.7% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
17/26, 132 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-16.2 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected
Receiving · NO
6/10 for 97 yds, 0 TD
43% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Alvin Kamara banked 4.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 21.0 | +4.3 | 78% | 65% | 26% | 4% | 13 car, 32 yd · 5/6, 68 yd, 1 TD |
| Taysom HillQB · Starter QB | 17.4 | +2.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/28, 222 yd, 1 TD · 12 car, 45 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.8 | +2.8 | 52% | 41% | 17% | 0% | 17 car, 55 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 13 yd |
| Marquez CallawayWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.7 | +1.2 | 84% | 76% | 43% | 67% | 6/10, 97 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB · Committee Back | 9.2 | +1.5 | 48% | 56% | 17% | 0% | 6 car, 21 yd · 4/4, 31 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | +2.1 | 89% | 82% | 13% | 13% | 3/3, 33 yd |
| D.J. MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.9 | −5.0 | 92% | 94% | 33% | 76% | 3/8, 29 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +2.0 | 64% | 65% | 9% | 12% | 2/2, 26 yd |
| Deonte HartyWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | +2.1 | 41% | 44% | 9% | 10% | 2/2, 23 yd |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +0.9 | 72% | 79% | 8% | 14% | 2/2, 16 yd |
| Robbie ChosenWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +0.8 | 98% | 97% | 8% | 12% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 2.0 | −4.7 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 17/26, 132 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 7 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 1.6 | −0.2 | 34% | 29% | 4% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.6 | 47% | 47% | 9% | 3% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Cam NewtonQB | 0.5 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Giovanni RicciTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Shi SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brandon ZylstraWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Alex EricksonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tony JonesRB | -0.2 | −0.7 | 16% | 18% | 0% | — | 1 car, -2 yd |
| Ty MontgomeryWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.4 | −1.1 | 14% | 6% | 0% | — | 1 car, -4 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:09) 3-L.Hajrullahu 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.
Q4 12:09 · Panthers · 4th & 8 at NO 29 · gained nothing · -3.78 EP · −17.0% win probability
148 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 81 yards from the CAR 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Panthers3
Saints0Panthers3Saints3Panthers9Saints3Panthers10Saints3Panthers10Saints6Panthers10Saints9Panthers10Saints12Panthers10Saints18Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 17/26 | 132 | 0 | 1 | 7 | −16.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 17 | 55 | 3.2 | 1 | −0.9 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Sam Darnold |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Thomas | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 13% | +2.3 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Luvu | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Hartsfield | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jermaine Carter |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 17/28 | 222 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +0.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_17_CAR_NO
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -7 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 37; the game landed 28 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 7 |
| 3.5 |
| 0 |
| +0.1 |
| Cam Newton | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| +1.5 |
| D.J. Moore | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 33% | −4.2 |
| Terrace Marshall | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +2.1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 17% | −2.8 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 8% | −0.0 |
| Shi Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keith Taylor | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquis Haynes | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 32 | 2.5 | 0 | −5.6 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Tony Jones | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Callaway | 6 | 10 | 97 | 0 | 43% | +2.8 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 6 | 68 | 1 | 26% | +4.0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 9% | +0.9 |
| Deonte Harty | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 9% | +1.4 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | +1.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9% | −1.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Jordan | 6 | 2 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwon Alexander | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Ringo | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Demario Davis | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malcolm Jenkins | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshon Lattimore | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shy Tuttle | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Williams | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
