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2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
10
18
New Orleans Saints 18–10. Biggest swing: Q2 1:14, NO +10% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass deep left to 1-M.Callaway to NO 31 for 28 yards (28-K.Taylor). Pass 24, YAC 4
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Panthers | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 59 | 54 |
| Total yards | 178 | 283 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 3.0 | 5.2 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.30 | -0.13 (edge) |
| Success rate | 34% | 35% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 58% | 59% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.48 | 0.04 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.06 (edge) | -0.39 |
| Third downs | 6/14 (edge) | 5/13 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 5 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 15 (edge) | 14 |
| Sacks taken | 7 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 (edge) |
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
17/28, 222 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
0.9 expected points added · +5.7% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
17/26, 132 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-16.2 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected
Receiving · NO
6/10 for 97 yds, 0 TD
43% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | CAR 25 | 13 | 61 | 6:55 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | NO | NO 25 | 9 | 52 | 4:00 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | CAR | CAR 19 | 12 | 71 | 5:56 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | NO | NO 30 | 5 | 7 | 2:10 | Punt | |
| 5 | CAR | CAR 20 | 3 | -8 | 0:53 | Fumble | |
| 6 | NO | CAR 13 | 4 | 4 | 1:25 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | -3 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 8 | NO | NO 20 | 7 | 23 | 3:25 | Punt | |
| 9 | CAR | CAR 16 | 5 | 16 | 1:45 | Punt | |
| 10 | NO | NO 4 | 10 | 68 | 1:53 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | NO | NO 25 | 12 | 49 | 5:35 | Punt | |
| 12 | CAR | CAR 8 | 4 | 2 | 1:30 | Punt | |
| 13 | NO | CAR 47 | 4 | 4 | 1:39 | Punt | |
| 14 | CAR | CAR 9 | 4 | -5 | 1:59 | Punt | |
| 15 | NO | CAR 38 | 6 | 23 | 2:10 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | CAR | CAR 25 | 11 | 46 | 5:03 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | NO | NO 37 | 8 | 63 | 4:15 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | -4 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 19 | NO | NO 41 | 4 | -10 | 2:11 | Punt | |
| 20 | CAR | CAR 23 | 10 | 2 | 3:20 | Interception | |
| 21 | NO | CAR 28 | 2 | 0 | 0:46 | End of game |
0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 71 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 17/26 | 132 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -16.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 17 | 55 | 3.2 | 1 | -0.9 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Cam Newton | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Thomas | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 13% | 2.3 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 17% | 1.5 |
| D.J. Moore | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 33% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Luvu | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Hartsfield | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jermaine Carter | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Thompson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 17/28 | 222 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -7 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 37; the game landed 28 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| -4.2 |
| Terrace Marshall | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8% | 2.1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 17% | -2.8 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 8% | -0.0 |
| Shi Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -1.1 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Keith Taylor | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquis Haynes | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -3.6 |
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 32 | 2.5 | 0 | -5.6 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Tony Jones | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Callaway | 6 | 10 | 97 | 0 | 43% | 2.8 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 6 | 68 | 1 | 26% | 4.0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 9% | 0.9 |
| Deonte Harty | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 9% | 1.4 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | 1.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9% | -1.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Jordan | 6 | 2 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwon Alexander | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Ringo | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Demario Davis | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malcolm Jenkins | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshon Lattimore | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shy Tuttle | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Williams | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
