2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Carolina Panthers

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -7 ✓U 37 ✓DomeSaints closed -7 and covered, winning by 8.

New Orleans Saints 18–10. Biggest swing: Q2 1:14, NO +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:14CAR — NO NO ball · 3rd & 11CAR 51%

(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass deep left to 1-M.Callaway to NO 31 for 28 yards (28-K.Taylor). Pass 24, YAC 4

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:14NO +10% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass deep left to 1-M.Callaway to NO 31 for 28 yards (28-K.Taylor). Pass 24, YAC 4
Q2 · 10:14CAR +9% win prob(10:14) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CAR 12 for -9 yards (26-P.Williams). FUMBLES (26-P.Williams) [26-P.Williams], touched at CAR 12, RECOVERED by NO-92-M.Davenport at CAR 14. 92-M.Davenport to CAR 13 for 1 yard (73-M.Jordan).
Q4 · 12:09CAR +9% win prob(12:09) 3-L.Hajrullahu 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.
Q3 · 9:35CAR +8% win prob(9:35) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NO-7-T.Hill, Intentional Grounding, 9 yards, enforced at CAR 26. Penalty on NO, Illegal Formation, declined. Carolina challenged the spot of a foul ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NO-7-T.Hill, Intentional Grounding, 13 yards, enforced at CAR 26. Penalty on NO, Illegal Formation, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Saints
Offensive plays	59	54
Total yards	178	283 (edge)
Yards per play	3.0	5.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.30	-0.13 (edge)
Success rate	34%	35% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.48	0.04 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06 (edge)	-0.39
Third downs	6/14 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	7	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Taysom HillTE

17/28, 222 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.9 expected points added · +5.7% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

17/26, 132 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-16.2 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

17 att, 55 yds, 1 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Taysom HillTE

12 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Marquez CallawayWR

6/10 for 97 yds, 0 TD

43% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

5/6 for 68 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	13	61	6:55	Turnover on downs
2	NO	NO 25	9	52	4:00	Turnover on downs
3	CAR	CAR 19	12	71	5:56	Touchdown
4	NO	NO 30	5	7	2:10	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 20	3	-8	0:53	Fumble
6	NO	CAR 13	4	4	1:25	Turnover on downs
7	CAR	CAR 25	5	-3	1:38	Punt
8	NO	NO 20	7	23	3:25	Punt
9	CAR	CAR 16	5	16	1:45	Punt
10	NO	NO 4	10	68	1:53	Turnover on downs
11	NO	NO 25	12	49	5:35	Punt
12	CAR	CAR 8	4	2	1:30	Punt
13	NO	CAR 47	4	4	1:39	Punt
14	CAR	CAR 9	4	-5	1:59	Punt
15	NO	CAR 38	6	23	2:10	Turnover on downs
16	CAR	CAR 25	11	46	5:03	Turnover on downs
17	NO	NO 37	8	63	4:15	Touchdown
18	CAR	CAR 25	5	-4	1:32	Punt
19	NO	NO 41	4	-10	2:11	Punt
20	CAR	CAR 23	10	2	3:20	Interception
21	NO	CAR 28	2	0	0:46	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 71 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	17/26	132	0	1	7	-16.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	17	55	3.2	1	-0.9
Ameer Abdullah	6	21	3.5	0	-1.0
Sam Darnold	2	7	3.5	0	0.1
Cam Newton	1	5	5.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Ian Thomas	3	3	33	13%	2.3
Ameer Abdullah	4	4	31	17%	1.5
D.J. Moore	3	8	29	33%	-4.2
Terrace Marshall	2	2	16	8%	2.1
Chuba Hubbard	3	4	13	17%	-2.8
Robbie Chosen	2	2	10	8%	-0.0
Shi Smith	0	1	0	4%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Frankie Luvu	4	3	0.0	0
Myles Hartsfield	5	1	0.0	1
Jermaine Carter	1	4	0.0	0
Shaq Thompson	2	3	0.0	0
Keith Taylor	4	1	0.0	0
Yetur Gross-Matos	3	1	0.0	0
Jeremy Chinn	4	0	1.0	0
Marquis Haynes	1	2	0.0	0
Derrick Brown	3	0	1.0	0
Brian Burns	2	0	0.0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taysom Hill	17/28	222	1	0	2	0.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Taysom Hill	12	45	3.8	-3.6
Alvin Kamara	13	32	2.5	-5.6
Adam Prentice	1	2	2.0	-0.1
Tony Jones	1	-2	-2.0	-0.9
Ty Montgomery	1	-4	-4.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquez Callaway	6	10	97	0	43%	2.8
Alvin Kamara	5	6	68	1	26%	4.0
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	2	2	26	0	9%	0.9
Deonte Harty	2	2	23	0	9%	1.4
Adam Prentice	1	1	4	0	4%	1.0
Juwan Johnson	1	2	4	0	9%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cameron Jordan	6	2	3.5	0
Kwon Alexander	5	2	0.5	0
Christian Ringo	2	4	0.0	0
Paulson Adebo	5	0	0.0	1
Demario Davis	2	3	0.0	1
Malcolm Jenkins	2	3	0.0	0
Marshon Lattimore	2	2	0.0	0
Carl Granderson	1	2	0.0	0
Shy Tuttle	1	2	0.0	0
P.J. Williams	2	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -7
Closing total: 37
CAR moneyline: +238
NO moneyline: -279

Saints closed -7 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 37; the game landed 28 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: CAR 7 days · NO 6 days
Coaches: Matt Rhule vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.