2021 Week 17 · Mon, Jan 3, 2022 · Heinz Field

Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

CLE -1 upsetU 43.5 ✓25°FBrowns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 26–14. Biggest swing: Q2 7:09, CLE +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 7:09CLE — PIT CLE ball · 1st & 10PIT 62%

(7:09) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 11-D.Peoples-Jones INTERCEPTED by 25-A.Witherspoon at CLE 43. 25-A.Witherspoon pushed ob at CLE 43 for no gain (11-D.Peoples-Jones).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 7:09CLE +9% win prob(7:09) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 11-D.Peoples-Jones INTERCEPTED by 25-A.Witherspoon at CLE 43. 25-A.Witherspoon pushed ob at CLE 43 for no gain (11-D.Peoples-Jones).
Q2 · 12:24PIT +8% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 11-C.Claypool to CLE 33 for 3 yards (90-J.Clowney). PENALTY on CLE-90-J.Clowney, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 33.
Q3 · 2:58PIT +8% win prob(2:58) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 11-D.Peoples-Jones pushed ob at PIT 9 for 39 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q1 · 2:54PIT +8% win prob(2:54) 44-D.Watt up the middle to CLE 41 for 1 yard (90-J.Clowney; 58-M.McDowell).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Steelers
Offensive plays	67	78
Total yards	232	300 (edge)
Yards per play	3.5	3.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.24	-0.09 (edge)
Success rate	28%	32% (edge)
Dropback rate	72%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.30 (edge)	-0.36
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	0.34 (edge)
Third downs	5/17 (edge)	5/18
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	13	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	9	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

16/38, 185 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-15.7 expected points added · -20.2% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

24/46, 123 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-17.5 expected points added · -15.9% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

28 att, 188 yds, 1 TD

8.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

12 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Donovan Peoples-JonesWR

3/5 for 76 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Jarvis LandryWR

4/10 for 43 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · -2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	7	14	2:46	Punt
2	CLE	CLE 27	6	18	1:31	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 20	6	15	2:46	Punt
4	CLE	CLE 27	5	40	2:29	Turnover on downs
5	PIT	PIT 38	10	26	4:45	Turnover on downs
6	CLE	CLE 36	4	-6	0:50	Punt
7	PIT	PIT 34	11	46	4:14	Touchdown
8	CLE	CLE 24	5	1	0:53	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 37	4	7	2:37	Punt
10	CLE	CLE 26	1	0	0:06	Interception
11	PIT	CLE 43	11	39	4:01	Turnover on downs
12	CLE	CLE 21	11	38	2:28	Punt
13	PIT	PIT 19	6	15	0:34	Interception
14	CLE	CLE 35	5	6	2:24	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 22	11	61	4:16	Turnover on downs
16	CLE	CLE 26	7	17	3:14	Punt
17	PIT	PIT 5	4	-1	2:08	Punt
18	CLE	PIT 48	5	48	2:02	Touchdown
19	PIT	PIT 25	5	1	0:54	Punt
20	CLE	CLE 30	6	16	1:26	Punt
21	PIT	PIT 43	8	25	3:50	Turnover on downs
22	CLE	CLE 25	5	-3	2:23	Punt
23	PIT	CLE 37	4	7	1:35	Turnover on downs
24	CLE	CLE 24	19	50	4:38	Touchdown
25	PIT	CLE 45	5	45	0:19	Touchdown
26	CLE	CLE 20	5	7	0:41	Interception
27	PIT	CLE 37	1	0	0:10	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 61 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	16/38	185	2	2	9	-15.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Nick Chubb	12	58	4.8	-0.8
Baker Mayfield	2	16	8.0	1.6
D'Ernest Johnson	5	13	2.6	-1.7
Jarvis Landry	1	6	6.0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Donovan Peoples-Jones	3	5	76	0	14%	2.4
Jarvis Landry	4	10	43	0	28%	-2.4
David Njoku	4	4	28	1	11%	4.5
Austin Hooper	2	5	28	0	14%	-1.2
Rashard Higgins	1	5	8	0	14%	-1.8
D'Ernest Johnson	1	3	1	0	8%	-1.5
Harrison Bryant	1	1	1	1	3%	0.9
Nick Chubb	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Anthony Schwartz	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Grant Delpit	7	4	0.0	0
Anthony Walker	2	6	0.0	0
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	3	4	0.0	0
Greg Newsome	5	1	0.0	2
M.J. Stewart	2	3	0.0	2
Malcolm Smith	3	2	0.0	0
Jadeveon Clowney	3	2	2.0	0
Tommy Togiai	1	3	0.0	0
Denzel Ward	3	0	0.0	0
Sione Takitaki	2	1	0.0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	24/46	123	1	1	2	-17.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	28	188	6.7	1	8.6
Benny Snell	1	2	2.0	0	-0.5
Derek Watt	1	1	1.0	0	2.1
Ben Roethlisberger	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ray-Ray McCloud	4	10	35	0	22%	-1.2
Diontae Johnson	8	15	31	1	33%	-3.8
Pat Freiermuth	5	6	22	0	13%	-3.2
Najee Harris	3	3	18	0	7%	-0.9
Chase Claypool	3	9	17	0	20%	-1.8
James Washington	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.9
Zach Gentry	1	2	0	0	4%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Robert Spillane	4	4	0.0	0	0
Alex Highsmith	7	0	2.0	0	0
Marcus Allen	2	3	0.0	0	0
T.J. Watt	5	0	4.0	0	2
Joe Haden	3	1	0.0	0	1
Kevin Rader	2	1	0.0	0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	2	1	0.0	0	1
Tre Norwood	2	1	0.0	1	1
Cameron Heyward	3	0	1.0	0	2
Benny Snell	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -1
Closing total: 43.5
CLE moneyline: -117
PIT moneyline: +105

Browns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 40 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 25°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: CLE 9 days · PIT 8 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.