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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
Cleveland Browns 14 at Pittsburgh Steelers 26. Final.
Browns -1 upsetU 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 17
Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Browns 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 7:09, 1st and 10, on Ahkello Witherspoon — 9.4 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:09 · 1st and 10
Ahkello Witherspoon
Steelers
(7:09) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 11-D.Peoples-Jones INTERCEPTED by 25-A.Witherspoon at CLE 43. 25-A.Witherspoon pushed ob at CLE 43 for no gain (11-D.Peoples-Jones).
24°F
Browns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 26–14. Biggest swing: Q2 7:09, Steelers +9.4% win probability on one snap.
9.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chase ClaypoolSteelersQ2 12:24(12:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 11-C.Claypool to CLE 33 for 3 yards (90-J.Clowney). PENALTY on CLE-90-J.Clowney, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 33.
8.3pts
Donovan Peoples-JonesBrownsQ3 2:58(2:58) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 11-D.Peoples-Jones pushed ob at PIT 9 for 39 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
8.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Steelers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.34 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Steelers at 4 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Browns190 of 201 plays carry both curves
(7:09) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 11-D.Peoples-Jones INTERCEPTED by 25-A.Witherspoon at CLE 43. 25-A.Witherspoon pushed ob at CLE 43 for no gain (11-D.Peoples-Jones).
Swing +9.4 for SteelersExpected points +4.08 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 8 points higher than the market did.play 64
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:09CLE +9% win prob(7:09) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 11-D.Peoples-Jones INTERCEPTED by 25-A.Witherspoon at CLE 43. 25-A.Witherspoon pushed ob at CLE 43 for no gain (11-D.Peoples-Jones).
2nd · 12:24PIT +8% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 11-C.Claypool to CLE 33 for 3 yards (90-J.Clowney). PENALTY on CLE-90-J.Clowney, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 33.
3rd · 2:58PIT +8% win prob(2:58) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 11-D.Peoples-Jones pushed ob at PIT 9 for 39 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
1st · 2:54PIT +8% win prob(2:54) 44-D.Watt up the middle to CLE 41 for 1 yard (90-J.Clowney; 58-M.McDowell).
1st · 0:02CLE +8% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CLE 30 for -10 yards (90-T.Watt). Penalty on CLE-80-J.Landry, Illegal Motion, declined.
4th · 15:00PIT +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper to CLE 46 for 21 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Diontae Johnson's 5-yard touchdown catch with 10:42 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd10:42Diontae Johnson·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben RoethlisbergerLead never changed again+70–7
2nd3:05Chris Boswell·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+30–10
3rd8:24Chris Boswell·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+30–13
Steelers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.24Browns: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.09Steelers: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.30Browns: −0.30 expected points added per play
−0.36Steelers: −0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Browns: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.34Steelers: +0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 67 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Steelers’s 78 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Browns 2, Steelers 4.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's sack or hit rate turned over: 9.4% in week 16 against 22.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Steelers22.9%
leaned — got home · +7.5 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.26× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 63.8%, 12.1 points above their season mean of 51.8% and 1.4 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass−10% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:09) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 11-D.Peoples-Jones INTERCEPTED by 25-A.Witherspoon at CLE 43. 25-A.Witherspoon pushed ob at CLE 43 for no gain (11-D.Peoples-Jones).
Q2 7:09 · Browns · 1st & 10 at CLE 26 · gained nothing · -4.08 EP · −10.4% win probability
188 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 201 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 201 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 76 yards from the CLE 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
201 of 201 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
201
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
31%
Yards
531
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.2369%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.3974%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.1155%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.0482%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.1040%
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
201 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
201 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 39
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Browns 45
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 37
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Steelers 33
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Steelers 38 to the Browns 36
The period ended4 plays, from the Browns 36 to the Browns 40
2nd quarter56 plays
Punt1 play
Browns0Steelers6
Browns0Steelers7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Browns 5
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 25
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Steelers 44
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Browns0Steelers10
Field goal11 plays, from the Browns 43 to the Browns 4
Punt13 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Steelers 39
Intercepted8 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Steelers 49
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Browns 42
Browns0Steelers13
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 22 to the Browns 12
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Browns 43
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 5 to the Steelers 12
Browns6Steelers13
Browns7Steelers13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Steelers 48 to the Steelers 3
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 26
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter63 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 46
Browns7Steelers16
Field goal8 plays, from the Steelers 43 to the Browns 32
Punt8 plays
Browns7Steelers19
Field goal4 plays, from the Browns 37 to the Browns 30
Browns13Steelers19
Browns14Steelers19
Touchdown23 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Steelers 1
Browns14Steelers25
Browns14Steelers26
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 45 to the Browns 37
Intercepted5 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 27
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -1
Closing total
43.5
Browns moneyline
-117
Steelers moneyline
+105
Browns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 40 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Heinz Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 24°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Browns 9 days · Steelers 8 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs Mike Tomlin
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 1:40PIT +7% win prob(1:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to PIT 47 for 22 yards (23-J.Haden) [97-C.Heyward].
1st · 11:51PIT +7% win prob(11:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 80-J.Landry to CLE 45 for 20 yards (20-C.Sutton; 34-Te.Edmunds).
Brownscategory by categorySteelers
Browns0
Steelers6
