2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · SoFi Stadium

Denver Broncos

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

LAC -8 ✓O 45.5 ✓DomeChargers closed -8 and covered, winning by 21.

Los Angeles Chargers 34–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:07, DEN +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 7:07DEN — LAC DEN ball · 4th & 6LAC 85%

(7:07) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at DEN 46 for -10 yards (99-J.Tillery).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 7:07DEN +5% win prob(7:07) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at DEN 46 for -10 yards (99-J.Tillery).
Q2 · 3:24LAC +4% win prob(3:24) 1-T.Long punts 42 yards to DEN 48, Center-54-M.Overton. 11-D.Spencer MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-37-K.Hall at DEN 49.
Q1 · 9:14LAC +4% win prob(9:14) 25-M.Gordon right guard to LAC 48 for 3 yards (97-J.Bosa).
Q1 · 6:13DEN +4% win prob(6:13) 1-T.Long punts 25 yards to DEN 19, Center-54-M.Overton, out of bounds.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Chargers
Offensive plays	56	64
Total yards	319	343 (edge)
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	5.4
Expected points added / play	-0.14	0.14 (edge)
Success rate	46%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	55%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13	0.47 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15 (edge)	-0.18
Third downs	3/11	9/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	16	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Drew LockQB

18/25, 245 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.2 expected points added · +2.7% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

22/31, 237 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.9 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

17 att, 58 yds, 1 TD

-4.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

10 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Noah FantTE

6/7 for 92 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

3/4 for 63 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 45	9	41	3:11	Touchdown
2	DEN	DEN 25	10	21	4:47	Turnover on downs
3	LAC	DEN 46	4	2	0:56	Punt
4	DEN	DEN 19	4	5	1:04	Punt
5	LAC	LAC 35	4	6	0:51	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 15	4	5	0:59	Punt
7	LAC	LAC 30	14	69	6:45	Turnover on downs
8	DEN	DEN 25	11	74	6:09	Turnover on downs
9	LAC	LAC 2	4	8	2:04	Punt
10	LAC	DEN 49	12	49	3:00	Touchdown
11	DEN	DEN 25	4	32	0:14	Turnover on downs
12	DEN	DEN 25	7	22	2:10	Punt
13	LAC	LAC 17	14	78	5:41	Turnover on downs
14	DEN	DEN 25	13	63	7:16	Turnover on downs
15	LAC	—	2	0	0:13	Defensive touchdown
16	DEN	DEN 25	8	28	3:18	Turnover on downs
17	LAC	LAC 48	4	52	1:04	Touchdown
18	DEN	DEN 25	8	69	3:47	Touchdown
19	LAC	LAC 25	11	38	6:31	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 78 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	Sacked	EPA
Drew Lock	18/25	245	1	1	2.2
Kendall Hinton	1/1	1	0	0	-3.1
Brett Rypien	0/2	0	0	0	-2.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Melvin Gordon	10	43	4.3	3.0
Javonte Williams	14	30	2.1	-7.1
Drew Lock	3	10	3.3	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Noah Fant	6	7	92	1	26%	4.8
Courtland Sutton	3	5	60	0	19%	2.9
Seth Williams	1	1	34	0	4%	2.1
Melvin Gordon	3	4	29	0	15%	-2.0
Kendall Hinton	2	5	23	0	19%	-2.5
Albert Okwuegbunam	2	2	5	0	7%	0.3
Javonte Williams	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.5
Drew Lock	1	1	1	0	4%	-3.1
Eric Saubert	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Micah Kiser	3	7	0
Jonas Griffith	2	7	0
Kareem Jackson	6	1	0
Kyle Fuller	5	2	0
Jonathan Harris	3	3	0
Patrick Surtain	4	2	2
Shelby Harris	1	3	0
Nate Hairston	1	2	0
Justin Simmons	1	2	0
P.J. Locke	2	0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	22/31	237	2	0	0	14.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	17	58	3.4	1	-4.2
Justin Jackson	12	41	3.4	0	-1.3
Justin Herbert	4	2	0.5	0	-2.3
Gabe Nabers	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4
Jalen Guyton	1	1	1.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Williams	3	4	63	1	13%	5.7
Austin Ekeler	3	3	54	0	10%	5.8
Keenan Allen	4	9	44	1	30%	-0.0
Tre' McKitty	3	3	22	0	10%	1.9
Justin Jackson	3	3	20	0	10%	2.8
Josh Palmer	3	5	16	0	17%	-3.4
Jalen Guyton	2	2	10	0	7%	2.2
Stephen Anderson	1	1	8	0	3%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kyzir White	3	6	0.0	0
Nasir Adderley	4	3	0.0	0
Joey Bosa	3	3	0.0	0
Michael Davis	3	2	0.0	0
Derwin James	3	2	0.0	0
Asante Samuel	2	3	0.0	1
Jerry Tillery	2	2	1.0	0
Justin Jones	1	2	0.0	0
Nick Niemann	1	1	0.0	0
Justin Jackson	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -8
Closing total: 45.5
DEN moneyline: +285
LAC moneyline: -340

Chargers closed -8 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 47 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: DEN 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Vic Fangio vs Brandon Staley

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.