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2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · SoFi Stadium
13
34
Los Angeles Chargers 34–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:07, DEN +5% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(7:07) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at DEN 46 for -10 yards (99-J.Tillery).
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Broncos | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 56 | 64 |
| Total yards | 319 | 343 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.7 (edge) | 5.4 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.14 | 0.14 (edge) |
| Success rate | 46% | 50% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 55% | 50% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.13 | 0.47 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.15 (edge) | -0.18 |
| Third downs | 3/11 | 9/15 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 (edge) | 3 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 16 | 20 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 1 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
18/25, 245 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
2.2 expected points added · +2.7% completion over expected
Passing · LAC
22/31, 237 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
14.9 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | LAC 45 | 9 | 41 | 3:11 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | DEN | DEN 25 | 10 | 21 | 4:47 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | LAC | DEN 46 | 4 | 2 | 0:56 | Punt | |
| 4 | DEN | DEN 19 | 4 | 5 | 1:04 | Punt | |
| 5 | LAC | LAC 35 | 4 | 6 | 0:51 | Punt | |
| 6 | DEN | DEN 15 | 4 | 5 | 0:59 | Punt | |
| 7 | LAC | LAC 30 | 14 | 69 | 6:45 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | DEN | DEN 25 | 11 | 74 | 6:09 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | LAC | LAC 2 | 4 | 8 | 2:04 | Punt | |
| 10 | LAC | DEN 49 | 12 | 49 | 3:00 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | DEN | DEN 25 | 4 | 32 | 0:14 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | DEN | DEN 25 | 7 | 22 | 2:10 | Punt | |
| 13 | LAC | LAC 17 | 14 | 78 | 5:41 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | DEN | DEN 25 | 13 | 63 | 7:16 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | LAC | — | 2 | 0 | 0:13 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 16 | DEN | DEN 25 | 8 | 28 | 3:18 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | LAC | LAC 48 | 4 | 52 | 1:04 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | DEN | DEN 25 | 8 | 69 | 3:47 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | LAC | LAC 25 | 11 | 38 | 6:31 | End of game |
0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 78 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a turnover on downs.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 18/25 | 245 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.2 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1/1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.1 |
| Brett Rypien | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 0 | 3.0 |
| Javonte Williams | 14 | 30 | 2.1 | 0 | -7.1 |
| Drew Lock | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Fant | 6 | 7 | 92 | 1 | 26% | 4.8 |
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 5 | 60 | 0 | 19% | 2.9 |
| Seth Williams | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 | 4% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Kiser | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonas Griffith | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Jackson | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Fuller |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 22/31 | 237 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -8 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 47 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2.1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 15% | -2.0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 19% | -2.5 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7% | 0.3 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | -0.5 |
| Drew Lock | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | -3.1 |
| Eric Saubert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.9 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jonathan Harris | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Shelby Harris | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hairston | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Locke | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -4.2 |
| Justin Jackson | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | -2.3 |
| Gabe Nabers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 3 | 4 | 63 | 1 | 13% | 5.7 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 | 10% | 5.8 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 9 | 44 | 1 | 30% | -0.0 |
| Tre' McKitty | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 10% | 1.9 |
| Justin Jackson | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 10% | 2.8 |
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 17% | -3.4 |
| Jalen Guyton | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 7% | 2.2 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | 0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyzir White | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nasir Adderley | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Bosa | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Davis | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asante Samuel | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jerry Tillery | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Niemann | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
