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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
Denver Broncos 13 at Los Angeles Chargers 34. Final.
Chargers -8 ✓O 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 17
Los Angeles Chargers 34, Broncos 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 7:07, 4th and 6, on Drew Lock — 4.5 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:07 · 4th and 6
Drew Lock
Chargers
(7:07) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at DEN 46 for -10 yards (99-J.Tillery).
Dome
Chargers closed -8 and covered, winning by 21.
Los Angeles Chargers 34–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:07, Chargers +4.5% win probability on one snap.
4.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Melvin GordonBroncosQ1 9:14(9:14) 25-M.Gordon right guard to LAC 48 for 3 yards (97-J.Bosa).
3.9pts
Unnamed on the sheetChargersQ2 3:24(3:24) 1-T.Long punts 42 yards to DEN 48, Center-54-M.Overton. 11-D.Spencer MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-37-K.Hall at DEN 49.
4.3pts
What separated them
Third down
Chargers won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Broncos at 3 of 11 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.47 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.13 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.14 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Chargers at 3 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Broncos155 of 164 plays carry both curves
(7:07) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at DEN 46 for -10 yards (99-J.Tillery).
Swing +4.5 for ChargersExpected points +3.24 for ChargersThe model had Broncos 13 points higher than the market did.play 21
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:07DEN +5% win prob(7:07) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at DEN 46 for -10 yards (99-J.Tillery).
2nd · 3:24LAC +4% win prob(3:24) 1-T.Long punts 42 yards to DEN 48, Center-54-M.Overton. 11-D.Spencer MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-37-K.Hall at DEN 49.
1st · 9:14LAC +4% win prob(9:14) 25-M.Gordon right guard to LAC 48 for 3 yards (97-J.Bosa).
1st · 6:13DEN +4% win prob(6:13) 1-T.Long punts 25 yards to DEN 19, Center-54-M.Overton, out of bounds.
1st · 11:54LAC +4% win prob(11:54) (No Huddle) 30-A.Ekeler right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:10DEN +3% win prob(5:10) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to LAC 35, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.
1st · 15:00LAC +3% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Austin Ekeler's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 11:54 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:54Austin Ekeler·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd11:29Dustin Hopkins·19-yd field goal19-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap M.Overton+30–10
Chargers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Broncos: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.14Chargers: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.13Broncos: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.47Chargers: +0.47 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Broncos: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.18Chargers: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 56 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Chargers’s 64 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Chargers 6.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's early-down pass rate, 41.7%, is past their previous low of 45.5% in week 14 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 16.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
low through week 17Against their seasonOver Expected
LAC's pass rate over expected, −7.4 pts, is past their previous low of −4.4 pts in week 15 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Chargers9.7%
inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 41.7%, 19.8 points below their season mean of 61.5% and 1.9 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%60 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%60 snaps
79Lloyd CushenberryC · Every snap100%60 snaps
73Cameron FlemingT · Every snap100%60 snaps
3Drew LockQB · Full-time95%57 snaps
52Netane MutiG · Full-time93%56 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Full-time88%53 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Full-time87%52 snaps
19Seth WilliamsWR · Heavy rotation72%43 snaps
9Kendall HintonWR · Heavy rotation60%36 snaps
25Melvin GordonRB · Heavy rotation50%30 snaps
85Albert OkwuegbunamTE · Heavy rotation50%30 snaps
33Javonte WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation50%30 snaps
82Eric SaubertTE · Rotational32%19 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Situational7%4 snaps
11Diontae SpencerWR · Situational5%3 snaps
4Brett RypienQB · Situational5%3 snaps
17Travis FulghamWR · Situational3%2 snaps
26Mike BooneRB · Situational2%1 snap
71Austin SchlottmannG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Ronald DarbyCBJustin HamiltonDTKenny YoungILBTeddy BridgewaterQBDrew HimmelmanTRico GaffordWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Long punts+8% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:24) 1-T.Long punts 42 yards to DEN 48, Center-54-M.Overton. 11-D.Spencer MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-37-K.Hall at DEN 49.
Q2 3:24 · Chargers · 4th & 2 at LAC 10 · gained nothing · +4.00 EP · +7.9% win probability
153 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 78 yards from the LAC 17 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
46%
Yards
660
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.2460%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.2361%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2844%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.1529%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11-0.2336%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.2229%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
Broncos0Chargers6
Broncos0Chargers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chargers 45 to the Broncos 3
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chargers 41
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 46 to the Broncos 44
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Broncos 24
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Chargers 41
Punt5 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Broncos 44
2nd quarter45 plays
Broncos0Chargers10
Field goal7 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Broncos 1
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chargers 2
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 2 to the Chargers 10
Broncos0Chargers16
Broncos0Chargers17
Touchdown16 plays, from the Broncos 49 to the Broncos 8
Broncos3Chargers17
Field goal5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chargers 43
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 47
Broncos3Chargers20
Field goal14 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Broncos 1
The period ended14 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chargers 6
4th quarter37 plays
Broncos6Chargers20
Field goal2 plays
Broncos6Chargers26
Broncos6Chargers27
Touchdown2 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chargers 47
Broncos6Chargers33
Broncos6Chargers34
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chargers 48 to the Broncos 45
Broncos12Chargers34
Broncos13Chargers34
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chargers 5
The period ended12 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
