2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · Lumen Field

Detroit Lions

Seattle SeahawksWinner

SEA -8.5 ✓O 41.5 ✓Seahawks closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 22.

Seattle Seahawks 51–29 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:35, SEA +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 8:35DET — SEA SEA ball · 3rd & 10SEA 73%

(8:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 81-G.Everett to SEA 41 for 12 yards (21-T.Walker, 38-C.Moore).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 8:35SEA +5% win prob(8:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 81-G.Everett to SEA 41 for 12 yards (21-T.Walker, 38-C.Moore).
Q1 · 14:06DET +4% win prob(14:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 14-D.Metcalf [99-J.Okwara].
Q1 · 14:00SEA +4% win prob(14:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to DET 30, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 14-A.St. Brown.
Q1 · 12:11SEA +4% win prob(12:11) 12-T.Boyle pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at SEA 38 for 15 yards (6-Q.Diggs).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Seahawks
Offensive plays	60	69
Total yards	359	498 (edge)
Yards per play	6.0	7.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.03	0.41 (edge)
Success rate	43%	58% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24	0.52 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35	0.32 (edge)
Third downs	5/10	7/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	28 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	4	0 (edge)

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs 0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Tim BoyleQB

22/37, 262 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

7.4 expected points added · -5.5% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

20/29, 236 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

15.2 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Rashaad PennyRB

25 att, 170 yds, 2 TD

4.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Travis HomerRB

6 att, 27 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

8/11 for 111 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 11.5 expected points added

Receiving · DET

KhaDarel HodgeWR

5/10 for 76 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -3.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 22	5	3	1:08	Punt
2	DET	DET 30	8	41	4:10	Turnover on downs
3	SEA	SEA 29	10	66	3:56	Touchdown
4	DET	DET 25	6	14	1:37	Punt
5	SEA	SEA 26	7	41	3:09	Turnover on downs
6	DET	DET 25	5	2	1:11	Fumble
7	SEA	SEA 36	3	64	0:42	Touchdown
8	DET	SEA 45	7	45	2:59	Touchdown
9	SEA	SEA 31	13	69	5:09	Touchdown
10	DET	DET 25	5	0	0:25	Punt
11	SEA	SEA 10	12	90	5:13	Touchdown
12	DET	DET 25	5	38	0:21	Turnover on downs
13	DET	DET 25	2	0	0:08	Interception
14	SEA	DET 21	3	21	0:40	Touchdown
15	DET	DET 27	10	75	3:58	Touchdown
16	SEA	DET 44	12	70	5:24	Touchdown
17	SEA	SEA 25	15	80	7:14	Touchdown
18	DET	DET 25	13	70	5:32	Touchdown
19	SEA	DET 40	6	22	1:35	Turnover on downs
20	DET	DET 25	3	4	0:32	Interception
21	SEA	DET 22	4	-2	0:24	Turnover on downs
22	DET	DET 25	2	0	0:10	Interception
23	SEA	DET 45	7	44	4:23	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 90 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tim Boyle	22/37	262	2	3	0	7.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Andre Swift	4	32	8.0	0	-2.0
Amon-Ra St. Brown	2	23	11.5	1	3.0
Jamaal Williams	11	22	2.0	1	-5.9
Tim Boyle	1	14	14.0	0	1.9
Craig Reynolds	4	4	1.0	0	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown	8	11	111	1	30%	11.5
KhaDarel Hodge	5	10	76	0	27%	-3.0
Trinity Benson	2	4	31	0	11%	1.0
Jamaal Williams	3	3	22	0	8%	1.4
Craig Reynolds	1	1	9	0	3%	0.6
D'Andre Swift	2	3	7	0	8%	1.1
Taylor Decker	1	1	6	1	3%	1.4
Matt Nelson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Tom Kennedy	0	3	0	0	8%	-6.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Tracy Walker III	8	3	0.0
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	4	4	0.0
Dean Marlowe	3	4	0.0
Will Harris	3	2	0.0
Alim McNeill	2	3	0.0
Derrick Barnes	2	3	0.0
A.J. Parker	3	1	0.0
Austin Bryant	1	2	1.0
Jessie Lemonier	2	1	0.0
John Penisini	2	1	0.0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	20/29	236	4	0	1	15.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rashaad Penny	25	170	6.8	2	4.7
D'Wayne Eskridge	1	30	30.0	0	4.5
Travis Homer	6	27	4.5	0	0.3
Russell Wilson	6	24	4.0	0	-2.3
Tyler Lockett	1	7	7.0	0	0.3
DK Metcalf	1	6	6.0	0	0.2
DeeJay Dallas	1	1	1.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Freddie Swain	2	2	65	0	7%	3.6
DK Metcalf	6	9	63	3	32%	6.5
Gerald Everett	3	5	36	0	18%	2.0
Tyler Lockett	3	3	24	1	11%	2.1
Rashaad Penny	2	3	15	0	11%	1.0
Colby Parkinson	1	1	12	0	4%	2.0
Will Dissly	1	1	8	0	4%	0.6
D'Wayne Eskridge	1	3	7	0	11%	-1.2
Penny Hart	1	1	6	0	4%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jordyn Brooks	4	4	0	0
D.J. Reed	7	1	2	3
Cody Barton	3	2	0	1
Quandre Diggs	3	1	0	0
Ryan Neal	2	2	0	1
Bryan Mone	1	2	0	1
John Reid	2	1	0	0
Ugochukwu Amadi	1	1	1	1
Darrell Taylor	1	1	0	0
Michael Jackson	0	1	0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -8.5
Closing total: 41.5
DET moneyline: +327
SEA moneyline: -399

Seahawks closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 22.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 80 — over by 38.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lumen Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 37°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: DET 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Dan Campbell vs Pete Carroll