2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · Levi's Stadium

Houston Texans

San Francisco 49ersWinner

SF -14 ✓U 44 ✓49ers closed -14 and covered, winning by 16.

San Francisco 49ers 23–7. Biggest swing: Q3 11:17, HOU +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 11:17HOU — SF SF ball · 4th & 1SF 73%

(11:17) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk (25-D.King).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 11:17HOU +18% win prob(11:17) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk (25-D.King).
Q2 · 2:00SF +12% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 13-B.Cooks for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 8:21HOU +12% win prob(8:21) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle intended for 18-C.Conley INTERCEPTED by 36-M.Harris at SF 40. 36-M.Harris to SF 42 for 2 yards (18-C.Conley; 9-B.Jordan).
Q4 · 12:08HOU +11% win prob(12:08) 7-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	49ers
Offensive plays	62	61
Total yards	222	416 (edge)
Yards per play	3.6	6.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.30	0.03 (edge)
Success rate	39%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	43%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.45	0.29 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	5/15	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Trey LanceQB

16/23, 249 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

8.5 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

21/32, 163 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-16.0 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Elijah MitchellRB

21 att, 119 yds, 0 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Rex BurkheadRB

16 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

4/6 for 94 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Brandin CooksWR

7/11 for 66 yds, 1 TD

37% of team targets · -0.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 20	5	5	2:18	Punt
2	SF	SF 22	4	6	1:52	Punt
3	HOU	HOU 35	4	8	2:06	Punt
4	SF	SF 22	8	30	4:22	Turnover on downs
5	HOU	HOU 48	6	9	2:05	Punt
6	SF	SF 4	11	66	6:23	Punt
7	HOU	HOU 12	4	8	1:30	Punt
8	SF	SF 45	1	0	0:12	Interception
9	HOU	HOU 20	15	85	7:15	Touchdown
10	SF	SF 26	5	7	0:39	Punt
11	HOU	HOU 39	4	-2	0:40	Punt
12	SF	SF 25	6	56	0:38	Turnover on downs
13	SF	SF 20	8	56	3:49	Turnover on downs
14	HOU	HOU 24	5	13	2:57	Interception
15	SF	SF 42	5	21	2:21	Touchdown
16	HOU	HOU 18	5	0	2:09	Punt
17	SF	SF 28	5	19	2:09	Punt
18	HOU	HOU 10	8	17	4:31	Turnover on downs
19	SF	SF 35	5	65	2:08	Touchdown
20	HOU	HOU 30	8	14	3:10	Punt
21	SF	SF 20	10	81	3:27	Turnover on downs
22	HOU	HOU 19	5	8	0:38	Turnover on downs
23	SF	HOU 27	4	9	1:29	Turnover on downs
24	HOU	HOU 21	7	57	1:12	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 85 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	21/32	163	1	1	3	-16.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rex Burkhead	16	47	2.9	-3.4
Royce Freeman	6	25	4.2	1.5
Jaylen Samuels	3	7	2.3	-1.2
Davis Mills	1	4	4.0	-0.2
Chris Conley	1	3	3.0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	7	11	66	1	37%	-0.7
Nico Collins	2	5	35	0	17%	-2.4
Rex Burkhead	6	6	32	0	20%	-0.8
Jaylen Samuels	3	3	14	0	10%	0.3
Pharaoh Brown	1	1	9	0	3%	0.6
Brevin Jordan	1	1	9	0	3%	-0.0
Royce Freeman	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Chris Conley	1	2	-2	0	7%	-6.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Christian Kirksey	5	4	0	1
Desmond King	6	2	1	2
Terrance Mitchell	4	2	0	1
Eric Murray	4	2	0	1
Justin Reid	4	1	0	0
Roy Lopez	3	2	0	0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	3	2	0	0
Neville Hewitt	3	0	0	0
DeMarcus Walker	2	0	0	0
Tavierre Thomas	1	1	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trey Lance	16/23	249	2	1	1	8.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Elijah Mitchell	21	119	5.7	-3.1
Trey Lance	8	31	3.9	-2.0
Deebo Samuel	7	19	2.7	-2.1
George Kittle	1	6	6.0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	4	6	94	0	26%	3.5
Deebo Samuel	3	6	63	1	26%	2.9
George Kittle	1	2	29	0	9%	0.1
Jauan Jennings	2	2	25	0	9%	1.1
Trent Sherfield	1	2	12	0	9%	0.3
Elijah Mitchell	2	2	11	1	9%	1.4
Kyle Juszczyk	2	2	9	0	9%	-0.6
Jamycal Hasty	1	1	6	0	4%	1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Fred Warner	7	8	0.0	0	0
Marcell Harris	5	4	0.0	1	1
Arik Armstead	2	5	0.5	0	0
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles	2	3	0.0	0	0
Jaquiski Tartt	1	3	0.0	0	0
Jimmie Ward	2	2	0.0	0	0
Samson Ebukam	1	2	0.5	0	0
Ambry Thomas	2	1	0.0	0	1
K'Waun Williams	3	0	0.0	0	0
River Cracraft	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -14
Closing total: 44
HOU moneyline: +463
SF moneyline: -602

49ers closed -14 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 44; the game landed 30 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 50°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: HOU 7 days · SF 10 days
Coaches: David Culley vs Kyle Shanahan