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2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · Levi's Stadium
7
23
San Francisco 49ers 23–7. Biggest swing: Q3 11:17, HOU +18% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(11:17) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk (25-D.King).
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Texans | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 62 | 61 |
| Total yards | 222 | 416 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 3.6 | 6.8 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.30 | 0.03 (edge) |
| Success rate | 39% | 43% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 58% | 43% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.45 | 0.29 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.10 (edge) | -0.16 |
| Third downs | 5/15 | 5/13 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 2 | 9 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 11 | 18 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
16/23, 249 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
8.5 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
21/32, 163 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-16.0 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | HOU 20 | 5 | 5 | 2:18 | Punt | |
| 2 | SF | SF 22 | 4 | 6 | 1:52 | Punt | |
| 3 | HOU | HOU 35 | 4 | 8 | 2:06 | Punt | |
| 4 | SF | SF 22 | 8 | 30 | 4:22 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | HOU | HOU 48 | 6 | 9 | 2:05 | Punt | |
| 6 | SF | SF 4 | 11 | 66 | 6:23 | Punt | |
| 7 | HOU | HOU 12 | 4 | 8 | 1:30 | Punt | |
| 8 | SF | SF 45 | 1 | 0 | 0:12 | Interception | |
| 9 | HOU | HOU 20 | 15 | 85 | 7:15 | Touchdown | |
| 10 | SF | SF 26 | 5 | 7 | 0:39 | Punt | |
| 11 | HOU | HOU 39 | 4 | -2 | 0:40 | Punt | |
| 12 | SF | SF 25 | 6 | 56 | 0:38 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | SF | SF 20 | 8 | 56 | 3:49 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | HOU | HOU 24 | 5 | 13 | 2:57 | Interception | |
| 15 | SF | SF 42 | 5 | 21 | 2:21 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | HOU | HOU 18 | 5 | 0 | 2:09 | Punt | |
| 17 | SF | SF 28 | 5 | 19 | 2:09 | Punt | |
| 18 | HOU | HOU 10 | 8 | 17 | 4:31 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | SF | SF 35 | 5 | 65 | 2:08 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | HOU | HOU 30 | 8 | 14 | 3:10 | Punt | |
| 21 | SF | SF 20 | 10 | 81 | 3:27 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | HOU | HOU 19 | 5 | 8 | 0:38 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | SF | HOU 27 | 4 | 9 | 1:29 | Turnover on downs | |
| 24 | HOU | HOU 21 | 7 | 57 | 1:12 | End of game |
0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 85 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 21/32 | 163 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -16.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 16 | 47 | 2.9 | 0 | -3.4 |
| Royce Freeman | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 | 1.5 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 11 | 66 | 1 | 37% | -0.7 |
| Nico Collins | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 17% | -2.4 |
| Rex Burkhead | 6 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirksey | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Desmond King | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Terrance Mitchell | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eric Murray |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Lance | 16/23 | 249 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 21 | 119 | 5.7 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -14 and covered, winning by 16.
Total closed 44; the game landed 30 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
| -0.8 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 10% | 0.3 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | 0.6 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | -0.0 |
| Royce Freeman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 7% | -6.0 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Justin Reid | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Lopez | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamu Grugier-Hill | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Neville Hewitt | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarcus Walker | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -3.1 |
| Trey Lance | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Deebo Samuel | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 | -2.1 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 4 | 6 | 94 | 0 | 26% | 3.5 |
| Deebo Samuel | 3 | 6 | 63 | 1 | 26% | 2.9 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 9% | 0.1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 9% | 1.1 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 9% | 0.3 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 9% | 1.4 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 9% | -0.6 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | 1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 7 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcell Harris | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Arik Armstead | 2 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaquiski Tartt | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Ward | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samson Ebukam | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Ambry Thomas | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| K'Waun Williams | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
