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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
Houston Texans 7 at San Francisco 49ers 23. Final.
49ers -14 ✓U 44 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 17
San Francisco 49ers 23, Texans 7 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 11:17, 4th and 1, on Trey Lance — 17.9 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 11:17 · 4th and 1
Trey Lance
Texans
(11:17) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk (25-D.King).
49ers closed -14 and covered, winning by 16.
San Francisco 49ers 23–7. Biggest swing: Q3 11:17, Texans +17.9% win probability on one snap.
17.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brandin CooksTexansQ2 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 13-B.Cooks for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.1pts
Marcell Harris49ersQ3 8:21(8:21) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle intended for 18-C.Conley INTERCEPTED by 36-M.Harris at SF 40. 36-M.Harris to SF 42 for 2 yards (18-C.Conley; 9-B.Jordan).
11.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Texans at 2 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.45 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.30 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against 49ers at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Texans159 of 172 plays carry both curves
(11:17) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk (25-D.King).
Swing −17.9 for 49ersExpected points −3.92 for 49ersThe model had Texans 27 points higher than the market did.play 91
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 11:17HOU +18% win prob(11:17) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk (25-D.King).
2nd · 2:00SF +12% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 13-B.Cooks for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:21HOU +12% win prob(8:21) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle intended for 18-C.Conley INTERCEPTED by 36-M.Harris at SF 40. 36-M.Harris to SF 42 for 2 yards (18-C.Conley; 9-B.Jordan).
4th · 12:08HOU +11% win prob(12:08) 7-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
2nd · 0:21SF +9% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at HOU 26 for 27 yards (23-E.Murray). Caught HOU 34. 8-YAC
3rd · 13:34SF +8% win prob(13:34) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk to HOU 33 for 43 yards (23-E.Murray). Caught SF 35. 32-YAC
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Elijah Mitchell's 8-yard touchdown catch with 5:57 left in the 3rd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd2:00Brandin Cooks·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills+77–0
2nd0:03Robbie Gould·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+37–3
4th3:23Robbie Gould·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+37–20
4th1:16Robbie Gould·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+37–23
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by category49ers
Texans0–749ers
222Total yards416
3.6Yards per play6.8
39%Success rate43%
33%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
2Explosive plays9
11First downs18
3Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
49ers ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.30Texans: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.0349ers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.45Texans: −0.45 expected points added per play
+0.2949ers: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Texans: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.1649ers: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 62 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against 49ers’s 61 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Texans 2, 49ers 5.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 12 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
49ers19.4%
inside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 34.8%, 14.6 points below their season mean of 49.4% and 1.0 times their own 14.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Mills pass+16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(14:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete deep left to 13-B.Cooks [91-A.Armstead]. PENALTY on SF-26-J.Norman, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at HOU 19 - No Play.
Q4 14:23 · Texans · 3rd & 11 at HOU 19 · gained nothing · +3.89 EP · +15.7% win probability
157 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 80 yards from the HOU 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
38%
Yards
638
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.4973%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.2854%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22-0.1832%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.0622%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.1743%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.150%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.130%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
49ers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Texans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 25
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 22 to the 49ers 28
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Texans 44
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the 49ers 22 to the Texans 45
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 48 to the 49ers 41
The period ended5 plays, from the 49ers 4 to the 49ers 30
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 42 to the Texans 40
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 12 to the Texans 20
Intercepted1 play
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Texans649ers0
Texans749ers0
Touchdown16 plays, from the Texans 20 to the 49ers 7
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the 49ers 33
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 39 to the Texans 41
Texans749ers3
Field goal7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Texans 19
3rd quarter34 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Texans 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Texans 24 to the 49ers 45
Texans749ers9
Texans749ers10
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 42 to the Texans 8
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Texans 26
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the 49ers 47
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Texans 20
4th quarter55 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
No good9 plays, from the Texans 10 to the 49ers 17
Texans749ers16
Texans749ers17
Touchdown5 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Texans 45
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 30 to the 49ers 41
Texans749ers20
Field goal13 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Texans 3
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Texans 27
Texans749ers23
Field goal6 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Texans 18
The period ended8 plays, from the Texans 21 to the 49ers 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -14
Closing total
44
Texans moneyline
+463
49ers moneyline
-602
49ers closed -14 and covered, winning by 16.
Total closed 44; the game landed 30 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 57°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south-east; clear.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Texans 7 days · 49ers 10 days
Coaches
David Culley vs Kyle Shanahan
3rd · 8:14
SF +7% win prob
(8:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete deep middle to 11-B.Aiyuk. PENALTY on HOU-39-T.Mitchell, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at SF 42 - No Play.
4th · 14:23SF +7% win prob(14:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete deep left to 13-B.Cooks [91-A.Armstead]. PENALTY on SF-26-J.Norman, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at HOU 19 - No Play.
