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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Jaguars150 of 157 plays carry both curves
(13:00) 13-J.Scott punts 38 yards to NE 30, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
Swing +5.7 for PatriotsExpected points +0.65 for PatriotsThe model had Jaguars 31 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:00JAX +6% win prob(13:00) 13-J.Scott punts 38 yards to NE 30, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
1st · 14:21JAX +4% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 23 for -9 yards (54-D.Hightower).
1st · 13:35NE +2% win prob(13:35) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 18-L.Treadwell to JAX 32 for 9 yards (21-A.Phillips; 23-K.Dugger).
1st · 5:04NE +2% win prob(5:04) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left tackle to JAX 42 for 15 yards (2-J.Mills).
2nd · 8:30JAX +2% win prob(8:30) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left intended for 23-R.Armstead INTERCEPTED by 41-M.Bryant at NE 34. 41-M.Bryant to JAX 33 for 33 yards (16-T.Lawrence).
1st · 5:54NE +2% win prob(5:54) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 37-D.Harris up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 37-Harris 13th rush TD of season, t-3rd most in franchise history.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Damien Harris's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 5:54 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:54Damien Harris·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st2:21Matthew Wright·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap R.Matiscik+33–7
Patriots ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.66 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.25Jaguars: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.42Patriots: +0.42 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.34Jaguars: −0.34 expected points added per play
+0.66Patriots: +0.66 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Jaguars: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.18Patriots: +0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 46 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Patriots’s 70 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 2, Patriots 7.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.42 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
JAX's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 6.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 2.6% in week 13.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 60.0% in week 16 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 14 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −13.6 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Patriots9.7%
inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 13.6 points below their season mean of 13.6% and 1.6 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Lawrence pass−8% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(8:30) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left intended for 23-R.Armstead INTERCEPTED by 41-M.Bryant at NE 34. 41-M.Bryant to JAX 33 for 33 yards (16-T.Lawrence).
Q2 8:30 · Jaguars · 2nd & 9 at NE 38 · gained nothing · -6.50 EP · −8.0% win probability
148 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 157 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 77 yards from the NE 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
157 of 157 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
157
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
49%
Yards
724
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.5168%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.4476%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR21+0.3329%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0842%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 32
Jaguars0Patriots6
Jaguars0Patriots7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Jaguars 2
Jaguars3Patriots7
Field goal9 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Patriots 11
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 34 to the Jaguars 42
2nd quarter44 plays
Jaguars3Patriots13
Jaguars3Patriots14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Jaguars 7
Intercepted7 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Patriots 38
Jaguars3Patriots20
Jaguars3Patriots21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Jaguars 6
Intercepted6 plays, from the Jaguars 19 to the Jaguars 40
Jaguars3Patriots27
Jaguars3Patriots28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 43 to the Jaguars 4
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 14 to the Jaguars 41
3rd quarter39 plays
Jaguars3Patriots34
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Jaguars 20
Drive ended7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 47
Punt9 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Jaguars 44
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Jaguars 14
Jaguars3Patriots40
Jaguars3Patriots41
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 24 to the Jaguars 31
The period ended3 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Patriots 30
4th quarter40 plays
Jaguars3Patriots44
Field goal9 plays, from the Patriots 43 to the Jaguars 25
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 34
Jaguars3Patriots50
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Jaguars 6
Jaguars9Patriots50
Jaguars10Patriots50
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Patriots 28
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 18 to the Patriots 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
