2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · Gillette Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -17.5 ✓O 42 ✓Patriots closed -17.5 and covered, winning by 40.

New England Patriots 50–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:00, JAX +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:00JAX — NE JAX ball · 4th & 3NE 92%

(13:00) 13-J.Scott punts 38 yards to NE 30, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:00JAX +6% win prob(13:00) 13-J.Scott punts 38 yards to NE 30, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
Q1 · 14:21JAX +4% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 23 for -9 yards (54-D.Hightower).
Q1 · 13:35NE +2% win prob(13:35) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 18-L.Treadwell to JAX 32 for 9 yards (21-A.Phillips; 23-K.Dugger).
Q1 · 5:04NE +2% win prob(5:04) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left tackle to JAX 42 for 15 yards (2-J.Mills).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Patriots
Offensive plays	46	70
Total yards	253	472 (edge)
Yards per play	5.5	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.25	0.42 (edge)
Success rate	39%	66% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34	0.66 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.18 (edge)
Third downs	3/9	8/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	32 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.42 expected points added per play vs -0.25.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

22/30, 227 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.2 expected points added · +10.0% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

17/27, 193 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-12.1 expected points added · -4.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

19 att, 107 yds, 2 TD

4.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Dare OgunbowaleRB

9 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Laquon TreadwellWR

6/6 for 87 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Kendrick BourneWR

5/6 for 76 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	5	7	2:08	Punt
2	NE	NE 30	12	80	7:03	Touchdown
3	JAX	JAX 23	9	66	3:31	Turnover on downs
4	NE	NE 34	11	66	5:16	Touchdown
5	JAX	JAX 22	7	40	3:45	Interception
6	NE	JAX 33	8	33	3:37	Touchdown
7	JAX	JAX 19	6	21	2:41	Interception
8	NE	JAX 43	7	28	1:11	Touchdown
9	JAX	JAX 14	4	16	0:48	End of half
10	NE	NE 23	8	77	3:46	Touchdown
11	JAX	JAX 25	7	6	2:32	Punt
12	NE	NE 20	8	36	3:48	Punt
13	JAX	JAX 12	3	6	2:09	Interception
14	NE	JAX 1	2	1	0:03	Touchdown
15	JAX	JAX 24	5	7	1:28	Punt
16	NE	NE 22	11	53	4:28	Turnover on downs
17	JAX	JAX 25	5	9	0:53	Punt
18	NE	NE 26	8	74	3:46	Touchdown
19	JAX	JAX 25	10	75	3:19	Touchdown
20	NE	NE 18	7	24	3:48	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	17/27	193	1	3	2	-12.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dare Ogunbowale	9	36	4.0	-0.9
Ryquell Armstead	6	28	4.7	-0.2
Trevor Lawrence	2	16	8.0	1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Laquon Treadwell	6	6	87	0	23%	5.8
Marvin Jones	2	6	46	0	23%	-4.6
Dare Ogunbowale	2	2	32	1	8%	3.1
Laviska Shenault Jr.	2	3	13	0	12%	-0.5
Luke Farrell	1	2	7	0	8%	-1.1
Ryquell Armstead	1	2	6	0	8%	-5.8
Tavon Austin	3	4	2	0	15%	-3.9
Chris Manhertz	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Chris Claybrooks	5	3	2
Josh Hines-Allen	4	3	0
Daniel Thomas	4	3	0
Andre Cisco	5	1	1
Shaquille Quarterman	3	2	0
Davon Hamilton	4	1	0
Myles Jack	3	2	0
Jihad Ward	1	3	0
Tyson Campbell	1	2	0
Adam Gotsis	1	1	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	22/30	227	3	0	0	17.2
Brian Hoyer	3/4	63	0	0	0	5.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	19	107	5.6	2	4.5
Damien Harris	9	35	3.9	2	3.0
Kendrick Bourne	2	17	8.5	0	1.5
Mac Jones	2	12	6.0	0	0.7
Jonnu Smith	1	5	5.0	0	-0.1
Brandon Bolden	1	4	4.0	0	-0.2
Brian Hoyer	2	1	0.5	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kendrick Bourne	5	6	76	0	18%	5.6
Jakobi Meyers	8	8	73	1	24%	7.7
Kristian Wilkerson	4	8	42	2	24%	1.9
Hunter Henry	3	5	37	0	15%	2.4
Brandon Bolden	2	3	21	0	9%	1.3
Jonnu Smith	1	1	20	0	3%	1.3
Damien Harris	1	1	12	0	3%	1.2
Gunner Olszewski	1	1	9	0	3%	1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Adrian Phillips	3	2	0.0	0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	2	2	0.0	0	0
J.C. Jackson	4	0	0.0	1	1
Jalen Mills	3	1	0.0	0	2
Gunner Olszewski	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jahlani Tavai	1	2	0.0	0	0
Chase Winovich	1	2	0.0	0	0
Christian Barmore	1	2	1.0	0	0
Lawrence Guy	2	1	0.0	0	0
Justin Bethel	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -17.5
Closing total: 42
JAX moneyline: +727
NE moneyline: -1056

Patriots closed -17.5 and covered, winning by 40.

Total closed 42; the game landed 60 — over by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: JAX 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Darrell Bevell vs Bill Belichick