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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:42 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 17
It turned at Q1 13:00, 4th and 3 — 5.7 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 50–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:00, Patriots +5.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:00 · 4th and 3
Unnamed on the sheet
Patriots
(13:00) 13-J.Scott punts 38 yards to NE 30, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
5.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 7 touchdowns on 7 trips, against Jaguars at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 66% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Patriots won this one — 8 of 10 on third down, against Jaguars at 3 of 9 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.66 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.34 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(13:00) 13-J.Scott punts 38 yards to NE 30, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Damien Harris's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 5:54 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Kristian Wilkerson20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jones · kick blocked by A.Gotsis+63–3410 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jaguarscategory by categoryPatriots
Patriots ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.66 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 46 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Patriots’s 70 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 2, Patriots 7.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.42 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
JAX's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 6.7 points clear of the next team along.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 60.0% in week 16 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 14 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.9 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
Over Expected room →Jaguars1.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their -2.0 pts, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 46 snaps
Patriots3.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +9.6 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 96%
Tendencies room →Jaguars59.5%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 59.6%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 37 early downs
Patriots45.8%right on their number · −4.4 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±17.8 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 59 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Jaguars0.0%leaned — took the kick · −35.5 vs their 35.5%, and they swing ±28.9 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Patriots—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 30.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →Jaguars0.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −13.6 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Patriots9.7%inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
JAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 13.6 points below their season mean of 13.6% and 1.6 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
22/30, 227 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
17.2 expected points added · +10.0% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
17/27, 193 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-12.1 expected points added · -4.3% completion over expected
Receiving · JAX
6/6 for 87 yds, 0 TD
23% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Dare Ogunbowale banked 8.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 22.7 | +7.8 | 56% | 46% | 0% | — | 19 car, 107 yd, 2 TD |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 22.3 | +4.5 | 82% | — | 0% | — | 22/30, 227 yd, 3 TD · 2 car, 12 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Featured Receiver | 21.3 | +6.7 | 78% | 86% | 24% | 24% | 8/8, 73 yd, 1 TD |
| Kristian WilkersonWR · Featured Receiver | 20.2 | +0.6 | 83% | 86% | 24% | 53% | 4/8, 42 yd, 2 TD |
| Damien HarrisRB | 17.7 | +6.6 | 22% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 9 car, 35 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 12 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB · Committee Back | 14.8 | +8.1 | 66% | 65% | 8% | 0% | 9 car, 36 yd · 2/2, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Laquon TreadwellWR · Featured Receiver | 14.7 | +5.8 | 81% | 74% | 23% | 39% | 6/6, 87 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Featured Receiver | 14.3 | +2.7 | 60% | 80% | 18% | 8% | 2 car, 17 yd · 5/6, 76 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 7.3 | −1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/27, 193 yd, 1 TD, 3 INT · 2 car, 16 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | −1.5 | 54% | 69% | 15% | 18% | 3/5, 37 yd |
| Marvin JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 6.6 | −3.0 | 96% | 94% | 23% | 39% | 2/6, 46 yd |
| Brandon BoldenRB | 4.5 | −0.6 | 25% | 40% | 9% | 0% | 1 car, 4 yd · 2/3, 21 yd |
| Ryquell ArmsteadRB | 4.4 | −1.0 | 30% | 23% | 8% | 4% | 6 car, 28 yd · 1/2, 6 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +1.3 | 58% | 34% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 5 yd · 1/1, 20 yd |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −0.6 | 28% | 26% | 12% | 3% | 2/3, 13 yd |
| Tavon AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −1.9 | 66% | 74% | 15% | 1% | 3/4, 2 yd |
| Brian HoyerQB | 2.6 | +0.9 | 18% | — | 0% | — | 3/4, 63 yd · 2 car, 1 yd |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.2 | 19% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −0.8 | 72% | 68% | 8% | 3% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Nathan CottrellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 34% | 19% | 4% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jakob JohnsonRB | 0.0 | — | 35% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Matt SlaterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:30) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left intended for 23-R.Armstead INTERCEPTED by 41-M.Bryant at NE 34. 41-M.Bryant to JAX 33 for 33 yards (16-T.Lawrence).
Q2 8:30 · Jaguars · 2nd & 9 at NE 38 · gained nothing · -6.50 EP · −8.0% win probability
148 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 157 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 77 yards from the NE 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jaguars0
Patriots6Jaguars0Patriots7Jaguars3Patriots7Jaguars3Patriots13Jaguars3Patriots14Jaguars3Patriots20Jaguars3Patriots21Jaguars3Patriots27Jaguars3Patriots28Jaguars3Patriots34Jaguars3Patriots40Jaguars3Patriots41Jaguars3Patriots44Jaguars3Patriots50Jaguars9Patriots50Jaguars10Patriots50Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jaguars at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 17/27 | 193 | 1 | 3 | 2 | −12.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dare Ogunbowale | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Trevor Lawrence |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laquon Treadwell | 6 | 6 | 87 | 0 | 23% | +5.8 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Claybrooks | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 22/30 | 227 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +17.2 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3/4 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_17_JAX_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -17.5 and covered, winning by 40.
Total closed 42; the game landed 60 — over by 18.0.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 16 |
| 8.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.7 |
| 23% |
| −4.6 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 2 | 32 | 1 | 8% | +3.1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 12% | −0.5 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 8% | −1.1 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | −5.8 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15% | −3.9 |
| Chris Manhertz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shaquille Quarterman | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Hamilton | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Jack | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jihad Ward | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Gotsis | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| +5.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 19 | 107 | 5.6 | 2 | +4.5 |
| Damien Harris | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 2 | +3.0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Mac Jones | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 5 | 6 | 76 | 0 | 18% | +5.6 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 8 | 8 | 73 | 1 | 24% | +7.7 |
| Kristian Wilkerson | 4 | 8 | 42 | 2 | 24% | +1.9 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 15% | +2.4 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 9% | +1.3 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3% | +1.3 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Phillips | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.C. Jackson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jalen Mills | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Winovich | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Barmore | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lawrence Guy | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Bethel | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
