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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Chiefs164 of 176 plays carry both curves
(3:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at KC 11 for 30 yards (35-C.Ward).
Swing +24.7 for BengalsExpected points +3.72 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 8 points higher than the market did.play 160
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:19CIN +25% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at KC 11 for 30 yards (35-C.Ward).
4th · 4:21CIN +15% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at KC 24 for 35 yards (35-C.Ward) [95-C.Jones].
4th · 14:56CIN +13% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins to KC 29 for 39 yards (27-R.Fenton).
3rd · 13:39CIN +13% win prob(13:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:02CIN +11% win prob(:02) 2-E.McPherson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
3rd · 7:08CIN +11% win prob(7:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 85-T.Higgins to KC 38 for 17 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
4th · 11:48
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Evan McPherson's 20-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:26Demarcus Robinson·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+77–0
1st2:54Travis Kelce·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+714–0
1st2:13Ja'Marr Chase·72-yd TD catch72-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+714–7
2nd0:46Evan McPherson·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+328–17
3rd13:39Ja'Marr Chase·69-yd TD catch69-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+728–24
4th11:48Tyler Boyd·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+728–31
4th6:04Harrison Butker·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+331–31
4th0:02Evan McPherson·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.HarrisLead never changed again+331–34
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryBengals
Chiefs6–2Bengals
414Total yards475
7.1Yards per play7.8
59%Success rate48%
55%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
10Explosive plays6
22First downs18
0Sacks taken4
0Turnovers0
The read
Chiefs ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.37Chiefs: +0.37 expected points added per play
+0.35Bengals: +0.35 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.39Chiefs: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.52Bengals: +0.52 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.33Chiefs: +0.33 expected points added per play
−0.13Bengals: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 58 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Bengals’s 61 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Bengals 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CIN's pass rate over expected, +13.3 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
high through week 17Against their seasonTendencies
KC's sack or hit rate, 22.2%, is past their previous high of 17.9% in week 6 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 16.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 25 pts
leaned — got home · +9.5 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+1.76× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Bengals10.8%
inside their normal wobble · −3.0 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 22.2%, 9.5 points above their season mean of 12.7% and 1.8 times their own 5.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
77Andrew WylieG · Every snap100%61 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%61 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%61 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%61 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
73Nick AllegrettiG · Full-time90%55 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time85%52 snaps
31Darrel WilliamsRB · Full-time80%49 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Heavy rotation79%48 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation64%39 snaps
13Byron PringleWR · Rotational48%29 snaps
81Blake BellTE · Rotational39%24 snaps
17Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational31%19 snaps
19Josh GordonWR · Situational20%12 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Situational16%10 snaps
40Derrick GoreRB · Situational13%8 snaps
45Michael BurtonFB · Situational10%6 snaps
67Lucas NiangT · Situational10%6 snaps
1Jerick McKinnonRB · Situational8%5 snaps
85Marcus KempWR · Situational5%3 snaps
66Austin BlytheC · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Deandre BakerCBKyle LongGShane BuecheleQBClyde Edwards-HelaireRBPrince Tega WanoghoT
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+21% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at KC 11 for 30 yards (35-C.Ward).
Q4 3:19 · Bengals · 3rd & 27 at KC 41 · gained 30 · +3.72 EP · +20.6% win probability
162 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 86 yards from the CIN 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.23
Success rate
48%
Yards
889
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.4985%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1466%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.7364%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.4917%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.1717%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.380%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Chiefs 35
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Bengals 32
Chiefs6Bengals0
Chiefs7Bengals0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Bengals 29
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 41
Chiefs13Bengals0
Chiefs14Bengals0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 37 to the Bengals 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Chiefs14Bengals6
Chiefs14Bengals7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 28
The period ended6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 36
2nd quarter51 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Chiefs20Bengals7
Chiefs21Bengals7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Bengals 1
Chiefs21Bengals13
Chiefs21Bengals14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Chiefs 18
Chiefs27Bengals14
Chiefs28Bengals14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Bengals 1
Chiefs28Bengals17
Field goal14 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Chiefs 28
The period ended7 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the Chiefs 24
3rd quarter36 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Chiefs28Bengals23
Chiefs28Bengals24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 31
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 18 to the Chiefs 44
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Punt12 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Chiefs 37
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Bengals 41
The period ended3 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the Bengals 18
4th quarter47 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Chiefs28Bengals30
Chiefs28Bengals31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Chiefs 5
Chiefs31Bengals31
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Bengals 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Chiefs31Bengals34
Field goal24 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Chiefs 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
