2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · Paul Brown Stadium

Kansas City Chiefs

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

KC -3.5 upsetO 51 ✓Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cincinnati Bengals 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:19, CIN +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:19KC — CIN CIN ball · 3rd & 27KC 54%

(3:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at KC 11 for 30 yards (35-C.Ward).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:19CIN +25% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at KC 11 for 30 yards (35-C.Ward).
Q4 · 4:21CIN +15% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at KC 24 for 35 yards (35-C.Ward) [95-C.Jones].
Q4 · 14:56CIN +13% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins to KC 29 for 39 yards (27-R.Fenton).
Q3 · 13:39CIN +13% win prob(13:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Bengals
Offensive plays	58	61
Total yards	414	475 (edge)
Yards per play	7.1	7.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.37 (edge)	0.35
Success rate	59% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	64%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.39	0.52 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.33 (edge)	-0.13
Third downs	6/11 (edge)	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0	0

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

30/39, 446 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

23.9 expected points added · +13.0% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

26/35, 259 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

11.3 expected points added · +12.1% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Darrel WilliamsRB

14 att, 88 yds, 2 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

12 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

11/12 for 266 yds, 3 TD

32% of team targets · 22.7 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

3/5 for 62 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 26	5	9	1:34	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 23	4	9	1:27	Punt
3	KC	KC 28	6	40	2:38	Touchdown
4	CIN	CIN 25	6	16	2:41	Punt
5	KC	KC 37	8	73	3:50	Touchdown
6	CIN	CIN 25	4	75	0:49	Touchdown
7	KC	KC 25	11	75	4:05	Touchdown
8	CIN	CIN 25	11	75	5:14	Touchdown
9	KC	KC 27	11	73	5:24	Touchdown
10	CIN	CIN 25	12	33	1:37	Turnover on downs
11	KC	KC 16	4	22	0:41	Defensive touchdown
12	CIN	CIN 25	5	75	1:30	Touchdown
13	KC	KC 18	8	26	3:00	Punt
14	CIN	CIN 24	11	41	5:20	Punt
15	KC	KC 21	7	44	3:59	Punt
16	CIN	CIN 14	9	72	4:27	Touchdown
17	KC	KC 32	12	52	5:43	Turnover on downs
18	CIN	CIN 25	16	79	6:01	Turnover on downs

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 79 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	26/35	259	2	0	0	11.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Darrel Williams	14	88	6.3	2	4.4
Derrick Gore	3	37	12.3	0	1.2
Patrick Mahomes	2	25	12.5	0	3.0
Tyreek Hill	1	2	2.0	0	-0.6
Blake Bell	1	2	2.0	0	1.9
Michael Burton	1	2	2.0	0	0.5
Travis Kelce	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mecole Hardman	1	1	53	0	3%	4.7
Tyreek Hill	6	10	40	0	29%	-1.2
Blake Bell	3	3	35	0	9%	2.4
Byron Pringle	3	4	35	0	12%	1.0
Demarcus Robinson	2	2	33	1	6%	2.9
Travis Kelce	5	7	25	1	21%	2.6
Darrel Williams	3	3	19	0	9%	0.3
Derrick Gore	1	1	8	0	3%	0.0
Noah Gray	1	1	6	0	3%	-0.8
Josh Gordon	1	1	5	0	3%	0.5
Marcus Kemp	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Anthony Hitchens	4	5	0.0	0
Charvarius Ward	5	2	0.0	1
Rashad Fenton	7	0	0.0	1
Tyrann Mathieu	4	2	0.0	0
Nick Bolton	2	2	0.0	0
Juan Thornhill	2	1	0.0	0
Chris Jones	3	0	2.0	0
Daniel Sorensen	3	0	0.0	0
Jarran Reed	1	2	1.0	0
Derrick Nnadi	1	1	0.0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	30/39	446	4	0	4	23.9
Brandon Allen	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	12	46	3.8	-0.7
Joe Burrow	5	10	2.0	-1.9
Samaje Perine	1	4	4.0	0.2
Brandon Allen	1	0	0.0	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	11	12	266	3	32%	22.7
Tee Higgins	3	5	62	0	13%	4.6
Joe Mixon	7	8	40	0	21%	-0.6
Tyler Boyd	4	6	36	1	16%	3.0
C.J. Uzomah	4	6	32	0	16%	1.1
Samaje Perine	1	1	10	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Chidobe Awuzie	10	0	0
Logan Wilson	5	3	0
Vonn Bell	2	3	1
Sam Hubbard	2	3	0
Mike Hilton	2	3	1
Jessie Bates	2	2	1
B.J. Hill	2	2	0
Markus Bailey	2	2	0
Tre Flowers	2	1	1
Larry Ogunjobi	2	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -3.5
Closing total: 51
KC moneyline: -178
CIN moneyline: +157

Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51; the game landed 65 — over by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 33°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: KC 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Zac Taylor