2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Baltimore Ravens

LA -7 no coverU 47 ✓Rams closed -7, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Rams 20–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:08, BAL +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:08LA — BAL LA ball · 4th & 5BAL 54%

(1:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 3-O.Beckham to BAL 07 for 5 yards (25-T.Young).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:08BAL +22% win prob(1:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 3-O.Beckham to BAL 07 for 5 yards (25-T.Young).
Q2 · 1:42LA +20% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep right intended for 5-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 4-J.Fuller at LA 37. 4-J.Fuller pushed ob at BAL 29 for 34 yards (65-P.Mekari).
Q3 · 11:12LA +19% win prob(11:12) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at BAL 20 for -9 yards (54-T.Bowser). FUMBLES (54-T.Bowser) [54-T.Bowser], RECOVERED by BAL-50-J.Houston at BAL 20.
Q1 · 2:03LA +16% win prob(2:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 89-T.Higbee INTERCEPTED by 36-C.Clark at LA 17. 36-C.Clark for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Ravens' first defensive TD of season.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Ravens
Offensive plays	56	67
Total yards	374 (edge)	327
Yards per play	6.7 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.09 (edge)	-0.03
Success rate	52% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	66%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05	0.05 (edge)
Third downs	3/9 (edge)	4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	5
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

26/35, 309 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

6.0 expected points added · +3.9% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Tyler HuntleyQB

20/32, 197 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-3.9 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Devonta FreemanRB

14 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Sony MichelRB

19 att, 74 yds, 1 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

6/7 for 95 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

6/6 for 89 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	9	35	4:27	Punt
2	LA	LA 4	11	68	4:57	Turnover on downs
3	BAL	BAL 46	4	4	2:05	Punt
4	LA	LA 8	3	8	1:33	Defensive touchdown
5	LA	LA 24	9	38	4:17	Interception
6	BAL	BAL 4	15	100	9:00	Turnover on downs
7	LA	LA 25	7	37	1:48	Punt
8	BAL	BAL 14	3	14	0:24	Interception
9	LA	BAL 29	4	29	0:34	Touchdown
10	BAL	BAL 21	10	51	0:53	Turnover on downs
11	LA	LA 25	2	0	0:02	End of half
12	LA	LA 25	8	55	3:55	Fumble
13	BAL	BAL 20	14	47	6:23	Turnover on downs
14	LA	LA 25	5	9	1:54	Punt
15	BAL	BAL 13	4	4	1:51	Punt
16	LA	LA 45	8	55	3:48	Touchdown
17	BAL	BAL 25	13	64	7:39	Turnover on downs
18	LA	LA 25	11	75	3:33	Touchdown
19	BAL	BAL 25	8	8	0:57	Fumble

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 100 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	26/35	309	2	2	1	6.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sony Michel	19	74	3.9	1	-1.0
Matthew Stafford	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	6	7	95	1	20%	8.3
Tyler Higbee	6	9	69	0	26%	-3.9
Van Jefferson	4	5	63	0	14%	5.7
Odell Beckham	5	7	39	1	20%	0.5
Sony Michel	3	5	25	0	14%	0.1
Ben Skowronek	2	2	18	0	6%	1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Troy Reeder	5	3	1.0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	3	3	0.5	0	0
Darious Williams	4	2	0.0	0	1
Taylor Rapp	5	1	0.0	0	0
Jordan Fuller	3	3	0.0	1	1
A'Shawn Robinson	4	2	1.0	0	0
Travin Howard	3	2	0.0	0	0
Aaron Donald	3	2	0.5	0	0
Nick Scott	3	1	0.0	0	0
Von Miller	4	0	2.0	0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyler Huntley	20/32	197	0	1	5	-3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Devonta Freeman	14	76	5.4	-2.2
Tyler Huntley	6	54	9.0	4.8
Latavius Murray	11	31	2.8	-1.0
Devin Duvernay	1	4	4.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Mark Andrews	6	6	89	21%	6.0
Rashod Bateman	7	10	58	34%	1.6
Marquise Brown	3	8	28	28%	-2.4
Devin Duvernay	2	3	19	10%	-1.7
Nick Boyle	1	1	2	3%	-0.6
Devonta Freeman	1	1	1	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tavon Young	7	2	0.0	0	0
Chuck Clark	3	3	0.0	2	3
Josh Bynes	3	3	0.0	0	0
Kevon Seymour	2	3	0.0	0	0
Calais Campbell	4	0	0.0	0	0
Jimmy Smith	3	1	0.0	0	0
Geno Stone	3	0	0.0	0	0
Tyus Bowser	2	0	1.0	0	0
Patrick Queen	1	1	0.0	0	0
Brandon Stephens	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -7
Closing total: 47
LA moneyline: -313
BAL moneyline: +264

Rams closed -7, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 47; the game landed 39 — under by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 59°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: LA 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs John Harbaugh