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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
RamsLos Angeles20
BY 1final margin
RavensBaltimore19
Los Angeles Rams 20 at Baltimore Ravens 19. Final.
Rams -7 no coverU 47 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 17
Los Angeles Rams 20, Ravens 19 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:08, 4th and 5, on Odell Beckham — 22.5 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:08 · 4th and 5
Odell Beckham
Rams
(1:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 3-O.Beckham to BAL 07 for 5 yards (25-T.Young).
Rams closed -7, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Los Angeles Rams 20–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:08, Rams +22.5% win probability on one snap.
22.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jordan FullerRamsQ2 1:42(1:42) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep right intended for 5-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 4-J.Fuller at LA 37. 4-J.Fuller pushed ob at BAL 29 for 34 yards (65-P.Mekari).
19.8pts
Matthew StaffordRavensQ3 11:12(11:12) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at BAL 20 for -9 yards (54-T.Bowser). FUMBLES (54-T.Bowser) [54-T.Bowser], RECOVERED by BAL-50-J.Houston at BAL 20.
19.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Rams won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Ravens at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Ravens at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Rams at 3 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.10 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Rams158 of 171 plays carry both curves
(1:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 3-O.Beckham to BAL 07 for 5 yards (25-T.Young).
Swing −22.5 for RavensExpected points −2.17 for RavensThe model had Ravens 11 points higher than the market did.play 155
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:08BAL +22% win prob(1:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 3-O.Beckham to BAL 07 for 5 yards (25-T.Young).
2nd · 1:42LA +20% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep right intended for 5-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 4-J.Fuller at LA 37. 4-J.Fuller pushed ob at BAL 29 for 34 yards (65-P.Mekari).
3rd · 11:12LA +19% win prob(11:12) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at BAL 20 for -9 yards (54-T.Bowser). FUMBLES (54-T.Bowser) [54-T.Bowser], RECOVERED by BAL-50-J.Houston at BAL 20.
1st · 2:03LA +16% win prob(2:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 89-T.Higbee INTERCEPTED by 36-C.Clark at LA 17. 36-C.Clark for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Ravens' first defensive TD of season.
4th · 2:43BAL +12% win prob(2:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 18-B.Skowronek to BAL 17 for 15 yards (26-G.Stone) [93-C.Campbell].
4th · 3:34BAL +11% win prob(3:34) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp to BAL 36 for 24 yards (26-G.Stone).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Odell Beckham's 7-yard touchdown catch with 1:01 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th4:33Justin Tucker·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.Moore+314–19
4th1:01Odell Beckham·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford · two-point no goodLead never changed again+620–19
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryRavens
Rams7–1Ravens
374Total yards327
6.7Yards per play4.9
52%Success rate45%
33%Third-down rate29%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays6
21First downs19
1Sacks taken5
3Turnovers2
The read
Rams ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Rams: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.03Ravens: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.16Rams: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.10Ravens: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Rams: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.05Ravens: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 56 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Ravens’s 67 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Rams 4, Ravens 2.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.6% in week 16 against 52.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.5 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Ravens10.8%
right on their number · −3.3 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 46.0 points above their season mean of 29.0% and 1.5 times their own 30.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Huntley pass−21% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 2-T.Huntley pass short middle to 12-R.Bateman to BAL 28 for 3 yards. Lateral to 5-M.Brown to BAL 28 for no gain (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald), RECOVERED by LA-11-D.Williams at BAL 32.
Q4 0:03 · Ravens · 3rd & 23 at BAL 25 · gained 3 · +0.01 EP · −20.8% win probability
156 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 91 yards from the BAL 4 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
42%
Yards
700
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.0966%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.1270%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16-0.2225%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.1925%
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Rams 37
No good12 plays, from the Rams 4 to the Ravens 34
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 46 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Rams0Ravens6
Touchdown3 plays, from the Rams 8 to the Rams 16
Rams0Ravens7
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Rams 35
2nd quarter53 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Ravens 38
Rams0Ravens10
Field goal16 plays, from the Ravens 4 to the Rams 5
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 47
Intercepted5 plays, from the Ravens 14 to the Ravens 28
Rams6Ravens10
Rams7Ravens10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Ravens 18
Rams7Ravens13
Field goal13 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Rams 28
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Ravens 11
Rams7Ravens16
Field goal15 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Rams 28
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 34
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 13 to the Ravens 20
The period ended3 plays, from the Rams 45 to the Ravens 44
4th quarter46 plays
Rams13Ravens16
Rams14Ravens16
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 36 to the Ravens 1
Rams14Ravens19
Field goal14 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Rams 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Rams20Ravens19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Touchdown13 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Ravens 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -7
Closing total
47
Rams moneyline
-313
Ravens moneyline
+264
Rams closed -7, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 47; the game landed 39 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 62°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Rams 7 days · Ravens 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs John Harbaugh
3rd · 13:58BAL +11% win prob(13:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 12-V.Jefferson to BAL 37 for 35 yards (21-B.Stephens) [98-B.Williams].
4th · 0:19LA +11% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley sacked at BAL 30 for -8 yards (40-V.Miller).
