2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

Indianapolis Colts

IND -8.5 upsetU 46.5 ✓DomeColts closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Las Vegas Raiders 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:54, IND +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:54LV — IND LV ball · 3rd & 10LV 54%

(:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 13-H.Renfrow for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-K.Turay]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass de

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:54IND +25% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 13-H.Renfrow for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-K.Turay]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 13-H.Renfrow to IND 24 for 24 yards (23-K.Moore) [57-K.Turay].
Q4 · 11:24IND +24% win prob(11:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-23-K.Moore, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q4 · 6:18IND +14% win prob(6:18) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 14-Z.Pascal (39-N.Hobbs). PENALTY on LV-39-N.Hobbs, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
Q4 · 0:02IND +14% win prob(:02) 2-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Colts
Offensive plays	61	54
Total yards	326 (edge)	262
Yards per play	5.3 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.02
Success rate	48% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	56%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	-0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02	0.21 (edge)
Third downs	6/14 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

24/31, 255 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

5.7 expected points added · +10.0% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Carson WentzQB

16/27, 148 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-5.4 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

20 att, 108 yds, 1 TD

4.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

16 att, 63 yds, 1 TD

0.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Zay JonesWR

8/10 for 120 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Hunter RenfrowWR

7/9 for 76 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 25	14	75	7:09	Touchdown
2	IND	IND 27	5	0	1:34	Punt
3	LV	LV 35	3	7	1:39	Interception
4	IND	IND 26	6	10	1:56	Punt
5	LV	IND 35	7	6	3:30	Turnover on downs
6	IND	IND 25	8	57	4:05	Turnover on downs
7	LV	LV 35	5	5	1:37	Punt
8	IND	IND 16	4	1	2:13	Punt
9	LV	LV 43	9	41	4:30	Turnover on downs
10	IND	IND 40	12	60	1:46	Touchdown
11	LV	—	1	0	0:01	End of half
12	IND	IND 25	8	70	3:32	Touchdown
13	LV	LV 25	7	24	3:38	Interception
14	IND	IND 49	6	9	3:23	Punt
15	LV	LV 4	9	46	3:42	Punt
16	IND	IND 20	4	3	1:06	Punt
17	LV	LV 38	7	62	3:21	Touchdown
18	IND	IND 25	15	52	9:22	Turnover on downs
19	LV	LV 25	11	60	1:56	Turnover on downs

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 75 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	24/31	255	1	2	2	5.7
Marcus Mariota	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	16	63	3.9	1	0.0
Marcus Mariota	3	16	5.3	0	2.8
Jalen Richard	1	4	4.0	0	0.7
Peyton Barber	6	3	0.5	0	-3.3
Zay Jones	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Jones	8	10	120	0	31%	4.5
Hunter Renfrow	7	9	76	1	28%	7.5
Jalen Richard	1	1	19	0	3%	2.0
Josh Jacobs	4	4	17	0	13%	-0.1
Peyton Barber	2	2	9	0	6%	-1.0
Foster Moreau	1	1	9	0	3%	0.6
DeSean Jackson	1	3	5	0	9%	-4.1
Bryan Edwards	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Divine Deablo	6	1	0.0	1
Denzel Perryman	5	2	0.0	0
Roderic Teamer	5	1	0.0	0
Darius Philon	4	2	0.0	1
Nate Hobbs	2	1	0.0	0
Dallin Leavitt	1	1	0.0	0
Maxx Crosby	1	1	0.0	0
Casey Hayward	1	1	0.0	1
Quinton Jefferson	1	1	0.0	0
Yannick Ngakoue	1	0	1.0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	16/27	148	1	0	1	-5.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	20	108	5.4	1	4.7
Carson Wentz	3	10	3.3	0	2.6
Nyheim Miller-Hines	2	4	2.0	0	-1.1
Deon Jackson	1	0	0.0	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	6	6	47	0	25%	2.3
T.Y. Hilton	1	3	45	1	13%	1.3
Mo Alie-Cox	3	5	28	0	21%	-0.1
Nyheim Miller-Hines	4	4	14	0	17%	-0.7
Zach Pascal	1	2	8	0	8%	-0.4
Jonathan Taylor	1	2	6	0	8%	0.1
Ashton Dulin	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.0
Dezmon Patmon	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaquille Leonard	6	2	0.0	1	1
DeForest Buckner	4	4	0.5	0	0
Bobby Okereke	5	1	0.0	0	0
George Odum	4	1	0.0	0	0
Kenny Moore	4	1	0.0	0	0
Al-Quadin Muhammad	2	2	0.0	0	0
Zaire Franklin	2	2	0.0	0	0
Rock Ya-Sin	4	0	0.0	0	2
Isaiah Rodgers	3	1	0.0	1	1
Kwity Paye	0	3	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -8.5
Closing total: 46.5
LV moneyline: +325
IND moneyline: -397

Colts closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 43 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: LV 7 days · IND 8 days
Coaches: Rich Bisaccia vs Frank Reich