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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 17
It turned at Q4 0:54, 3rd and 10, on Hunter Renfrow — 25.1 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:54 · 3rd and 10
Hunter Renfrow
Raiders
(:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 13-H.Renfrow for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-K.Turay]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 13-H.Renfrow to IND 24 for 24 yards (23-K.Moore) [57-K.Turay].
Las Vegas Raiders 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:54, Raiders +25.1% win probability on one snap.
25.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Colts owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Raiders at 2 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.15 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.21 expected points per dropback.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Raiders won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against Colts at 3 of 11 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Colts owned this one and still lost it — +0.21 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.02 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 15.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 13-H.Renfrow for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-K.Turay]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass de
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Daniel Carlson's 33-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Daniel Carlson33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.SiegLead never changed again+323–209 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryColts
Raiders ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 61 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Colts’s 54 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 4, Colts 2.
Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 16 against 17.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders-6.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.4 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 61 snaps
Colts-17.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −12.5 vs their -4.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.49× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 91%
Tendencies room →Raiders46.7%leaned — ran early · −13.8 vs their 60.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 45 early downs
Colts50.0%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 51.0%, and they swing ±14.9 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 122%
Fourth Down room →Raiders50.0%leaned — went for it · +23.5 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±23.2 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Colts—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 51.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →Raiders24.1%leaned — got home · +7.4 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Colts17.6%inside their normal wobble · +4.8 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
IND's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -17.1 pts, 12.5 points below their season mean of -4.6 pts and 1.5 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
24/31, 255 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
5.7 expected points added · +10.0% completion over expected
Passing · IND
16/27, 148 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-5.4 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Hunter Renfrow banked 6.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.6 | +6.5 | 69% | 85% | 28% | 33% | 7/9, 76 yd, 1 TD |
| Zay JonesWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.9 | +2.6 | 77% | 88% | 31% | 39% | 1 car, -1 yd · 8/10, 120 yd |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.4 | +3.5 | 71% | 52% | 8% | 0% | 20 car, 108 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 6 yd |
| Josh JacobsRB · Committee Back | 18.0 | +3.1 | 61% | 53% | 13% | 0% | 16 car, 63 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 17 yd |
| T.Y. HiltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.5 | +5.2 | 62% | 79% | 13% | 45% | 1/3, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| Carson WentzQB · Starter QB | 10.9 | −2.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/27, 148 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 10 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.7 | +1.2 | 95% | 93% | 25% | 12% | 6/6, 47 yd |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 10.2 | −0.8 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 24/31, 255 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT |
| Nyheim Miller-HinesRB · Receiving Back | 5.8 | −1.1 | 36% | 48% | 17% | 2% | 2 car, 4 yd · 4/4, 14 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Featured Receiver | 5.8 | −1.5 | 57% | 62% | 21% | 22% | 3/5, 28 yd |
| Jalen RichardRB | 3.3 | +1.4 | 21% | 35% | 3% | 1% | 1 car, 4 yd · 1/1, 19 yd |
| Peyton BarberRB | 3.2 | −2.3 | 18% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 6 car, 3 yd · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 100% | 100% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −1.6 | 59% | 72% | 8% | 16% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Marcus MariotaQB | 1.6 | −2.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| DeSean JacksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −3.4 | 26% | 41% | 9% | 18% | 1/3, 5 yd |
| Deon JacksonRB | 0.0 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.4 | 47% | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dezmon PatmonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Bryan EdwardsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.1 | 74% | 71% | 6% | 7% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Tyron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:02) 2-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q4 0:02 · Raiders · 4th & 1 at IND 15 · gained nothing · +0.21 EP · +20.6% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 75 yards from the LV 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Raiders6
Colts0Raiders7Colts0Raiders10Colts0Raiders10Colts3Raiders13Colts3Raiders13Colts9Raiders13Colts10Raiders13Colts16Raiders13Colts17Raiders19Colts17Raiders20Colts17Raiders20Colts20Raiders23Colts20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 24/31 | 255 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +5.7 |
| Marcus Mariota | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 1 | +0.0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | +2.8 |
| Jalen Richard |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 8 | 10 | 120 | 0 | 31% | +4.5 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 7 | 9 | 76 | 1 | 28% | +7.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Divine Deablo | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Denzel Perryman | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roderic Teamer | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Philon |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 16/27 | 148 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −5.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_17_LV_IND
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 43 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 4.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.7 |
| Peyton Barber | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3% | +2.0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 13% | −0.1 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9% | −4.1 |
| Bryan Edwards | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.6 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Nate Hobbs | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dallin Leavitt | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Hayward | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quinton Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yannick Ngakoue | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 |
| 108 |
| 5.4 |
| 1 |
| +4.7 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Deon Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 25% | +2.3 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 3 | 45 | 1 | 13% | +1.3 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 21% | −0.1 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 17% | −0.7 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8% | −0.4 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | +0.1 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.0 |
| Dezmon Patmon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaquille Leonard | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| DeForest Buckner | 4 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Odum | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Al-Quadin Muhammad | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaire Franklin | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rock Ya-Sin | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Isaiah Rodgers | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kwity Paye | 0 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
