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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 17
It turned at Q1 5:30, 2nd and 15, on A.J. Brown — 7.8 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tennessee Titans 34–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:30, Titans +7.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:30 · 2nd and 15
A.J. Brown
Titans
(5:30) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at MIA 26 for 25 yards (8-J.Holland).
7.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Titans won this one — +0.06 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.36 expected points per snap.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Titans won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 2 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Titans won this one — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Titans won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Dolphins at 3 of 12 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 4 points apart.
(5:30) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at MIA 26 for 25 yards (8-J.Holland).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Geoff Swaim's 1-yard touchdown catch with 1:27 left in the 1st put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Geoff Swaim1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan TannehillLead never changed again+70–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryTitans
Titans ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 59 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Titans’s 59 at 32%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 0, Titans 5.
Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's early-down pass rate, 27.9%, is past their previous low of 30.6% in week 5 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
MIA's sack or hit rate turned over: 40.0% in week 16 against 10.5% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
19 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
MIA's early-down pass rate turned over: 43.2% in week 16 against 70.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins3.4 ptsright on their number · +1.1 vs their 2.3 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 59 snaps
Titans-17.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.3 vs their -8.0 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.50× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 90%
Tendencies room →Dolphins70.5%inside their normal wobble · +12.3 vs their 58.1%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 44 early downs
Titans27.9%leaned — ran early · −18.2 vs their 46.1%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.92× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 129%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins66.7%inside their normal wobble · +26.4 vs their 40.3%, and they swing ±34.8 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Titans33.3%inside their normal wobble · −15.8 vs their 49.2%, and they swing ±21.0 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 39%
Tendencies room →Dolphins10.5%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
Titans9.1%inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
TEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 27.9%, 18.2 points below their season mean of 46.1% and 1.9 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 5 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 5
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 4 inactive
Inactive · 4
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
18/38, 205 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-15.1 expected points added · -18.3% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
13/18, 120 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
1.5 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Dontrell Hilliard banked 8.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta ForemanRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.2 | +5.5 | 65% | 58% | 0% | — | 26 car, 132 yd, 1 TD |
| Dontrell HilliardRB · Receiving Back | 16.8 | +8.9 | 24% | 21% | 17% | 0% | 8 car, 45 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 33 yd |
| Ryan TannehillQB · Starter QB | 13.5 | +1.0 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 13/18, 120 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 7 yd |
| Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.4 | +4.6 | 46% | 32% | 17% | 16% | 3/3, 24 yd, 1 TD |
| Geoff SwaimTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +2.5 | 90% | 84% | 17% | 0% | 3/3, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| Mike GesickiTE · Featured Receiver | 9.1 | −2.5 | 76% | 80% | 18% | 24% | 0/1, 0 yd · 4/7, 51 yd |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.6 | −11.3 | 94% | 91% | 34% | 41% | 4/13, 46 yd |
| Duke JohnsonRB | 8.5 | +1.0 | 58% | 64% | 8% | 1% | 7 car, 49 yd · 2/3, 16 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Featured Receiver | 7.7 | −2.6 | 92% | 89% | 18% | 17% | 3/7, 47 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | +2.3 | 66% | 61% | 8% | 4% | 3/3, 37 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.1 | −4.6 | 63% | 84% | 28% | 66% | 2/5, 41 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 4.3 | −8.0 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 18/38, 205 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 1 yd |
| Chester RogersWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.3 | 32% | 42% | 11% | 3% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Myles GaskinRB | 2.3 | −1.6 | 24% | 18% | 3% | 7% | 5 car, 23 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Phillip LindsayRB | 1.9 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 1.4 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Isaiah FordWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −1.9 | 27% | 27% | 5% | 2% | 1/2, 0 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 19% | 25% | 3% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.0 | 70% | 74% | 11% | 25% | 0/2, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:13) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 21 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, touched at MIA 19, RECOVERED by TEN-24-E.Molden at MIA 14.
Q1 1:13 · Dolphins · 2nd & 10 at MIA 26 · lost 7 · -5.20 EP · −9.3% win probability
152 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 75 yards from the TEN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Dolphins0
Titans6Dolphins0Titans7Dolphins0Titans10Dolphins3Titans10Dolphins3Titans16Dolphins3Titans17Dolphins3Titans23Dolphins3Titans24Dolphins3Titans27Dolphins3Titans33Dolphins3Titans34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 18/38 | 205 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −15.1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Myles Gaskin | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 | 18% | −1.0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jevon Holland | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Sieler | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Wilkins |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 13/18 | 120 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_17_MIA_TEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Titans closed -3 and covered, winning by 31.
Total closed 41; the game landed 37 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −1.1 |
| −0.6 |
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 13 | 46 | 0 | 34% | −6.4 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 8% | +4.7 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +0.7 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Myles Gaskin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Isaiah Ford | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.2 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.3 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jerome Baker | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raekwon Davis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Ogbah | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nik Needham | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 26 | 132 | 5.1 | 1 | −2.7 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 1 | +4.6 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 28% | +1.0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 17% | +1.0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 3 | 3 | 24 | 1 | 17% | +1.6 |
| Chester Rogers | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 11% | +1.5 |
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 17% | +0.9 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11% | −1.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Hooker | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Cunningham | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Cruikshank | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long Jr. | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Harold Landry | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kristian Fulton | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Janoris Jenkins | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Denico Autry | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Peko | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Cole | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
