2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · Nissan Stadium

Miami Dolphins

Tennessee TitansWinner

TEN -3 ✓U 41 ✓Titans closed -3 and covered, winning by 31.

Tennessee Titans 34–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:30, TEN +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:30MIA — TEN TEN ball · 2nd & 15TEN 63%

(5:30) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at MIA 26 for 25 yards (8-J.Holland).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:30TEN +8% win prob(5:30) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at MIA 26 for 25 yards (8-J.Holland).
Q1 · 1:13MIA +7% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 21 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, touched at MIA 19, RECOVERED by TEN-24-E.Molden at MIA 14.
Q2 · 3:25TEN +6% win prob(3:25) 7-D.Foreman right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 11:11TEN +5% win prob(11:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 81-D.Smythe pushed ob at TEN 27 for 15 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Titans
Offensive plays	59	59
Total yards	256	308 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	5.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.36	0.06 (edge)
Success rate	27%	36% (edge)
Dropback rate	75%	32%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.38	0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28	0.05 (edge)
Third downs	3/12	7/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	14
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.36.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

18/38, 205 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-15.1 expected points added · -18.3% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

13/18, 120 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

1.5 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

D'Onta ForemanRB

26 att, 132 yds, 1 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Duke JohnsonRB

7 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Mike GesickiTE

4/7 for 51 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · -1.0 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

3/7 for 47 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · -0.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 17	7	30	4:05	Punt
2	TEN	TEN 30	4	0	1:01	Punt
3	MIA	MIA 33	4	1	1:03	Punt
4	TEN	TEN 38	4	6	2:12	Punt
5	MIA	MIA 14	4	1	1:04	Punt
6	TEN	MIA 46	9	51	4:11	Touchdown
7	MIA	MIA 26	3	-7	0:19	Fumble
8	TEN	MIA 14	4	9	1:50	Turnover on downs
9	MIA	MIA 25	11	55	4:32	Turnover on downs
10	TEN	TEN 25	13	67	6:25	Touchdown
11	MIA	MIA 25	9	29	2:14	Punt
12	TEN	TEN 14	2	9	1:04	End of half
13	TEN	TEN 25	11	42	5:29	Punt
14	MIA	MIA 2	10	48	5:00	Turnover on downs
15	TEN	TEN 43	7	25	4:40	Punt
16	MIA	MIA 7	10	66	4:31	Turnover on downs
17	TEN	TEN 42	6	58	2:38	Touchdown
18	MIA	MIA 25	8	19	1:58	Turnover on downs
19	TEN	MIA 44	7	3	2:46	Turnover on downs
20	MIA	MIA 25	2	0	0:09	Interception
21	TEN	MIA 38	4	38	0:56	Touchdown
22	MIA	MIA 25	4	14	1:53	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 67 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	18/38	205	0	1	4	-15.1
Mike Gesicki	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Duke Johnson	7	49	7.0	0.9
Myles Gaskin	5	23	4.6	-1.9
Tua Tagovailoa	2	1	0.5	-3.3
Phillip Lindsay	2	1	0.5	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Gesicki	4	7	51	18%	-1.0
Jaylen Waddle	3	7	47	18%	-0.6
DeVante Parker	4	13	46	34%	-6.4
Durham Smythe	3	3	37	8%	4.7
Duke Johnson	2	3	16	8%	0.7
Phillip Lindsay	1	1	8	3%	0.7
Myles Gaskin	0	1	0	3%	-0.6
Isaiah Ford	1	2	0	5%	-1.2
Mack Hollins	0	1	0	3%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jevon Holland	7	1	0.0	1
Zach Sieler	2	5	0.0	0
Christian Wilkins	3	4	0.0	0
Jerome Baker	5	1	1.0	0
Elandon Roberts	2	4	0.0	0
Brandon Jones	4	1	0.0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	3	1	0.0	0
Raekwon Davis	1	2	0.0	0
Emmanuel Ogbah	3	0	0.0	0
Nik Needham	2	0	0.0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	13/18	120	2	0	1	1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Onta Foreman	26	132	5.1	1	-2.7
Dontrell Hilliard	8	45	5.6	1	4.6
Jeremy McNichols	2	14	7.0	0	-1.3
Ryan Tannehill	4	7	1.8	0	1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	2	5	41	0	28%	1.0
Dontrell Hilliard	3	3	33	0	17%	1.0
Anthony Firkser	3	3	24	1	17%	1.6
Chester Rogers	2	2	13	0	11%	1.5
Geoff Swaim	3	3	9	1	17%	0.9
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	0	2	0	0	11%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Amani Hooker	3	3	0.0	0	1
Zach Cunningham	3	2	0.0	0	0
Dane Cruikshank	3	1	0.0	0	0
David Long Jr.	2	2	0.0	1	1
Harold Landry	1	2	1.0	0	0
Kristian Fulton	3	0	0.0	0	2
Janoris Jenkins	3	0	0.0	0	1
Denico Autry	3	0	1.0	0	0
Kyle Peko	1	1	1.0	0	0
Dylan Cole	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -3
Closing total: 41
MIA moneyline: +151
TEN moneyline: -170

Titans closed -3 and covered, winning by 31.

Total closed 41; the game landed 37 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 43°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: MIA 6 days · TEN 10 days
Coaches: Brian Flores vs Mike Vrabel