2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · Lambeau Field

Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -13 ✓O 42 ✓11°FPackers closed -13 and covered, winning by 27.

Green Bay Packers 37–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 1:33, MIN +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:33MIN — GB GB ball · 3rd & 1GB 87%

(1:33) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon right guard to GB 45 for -1 yards (92-J.Lynch).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:33MIN +5% win prob(1:33) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon right guard to GB 45 for -1 yards (92-J.Lynch).
Q1 · 13:19GB +4% win prob(13:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at MIN 17 for 30 yards (24-M.Alexander).
Q1 · 0:41GB +4% win prob(:41) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 24 yards to MIN 31, Center-46-S.Wirtel, out of bounds.
Q1 · 10:55MIN +3% win prob(10:55) 33-D.Cook right end ran ob at GB 48 for 3 yards (51-K.Barnes).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Packers
Offensive plays	52	73
Total yards	206	482 (edge)
Yards per play	4.0	6.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.28	0.23 (edge)
Success rate	31%	58% (edge)
Dropback rate	81%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.30	0.28 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	0.15 (edge)
Third downs	2/12	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	28 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.28.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

29/38, 288 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.0 expected points added · +8.1% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Sean MannionQB

22/36, 189 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-10.9 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

8 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

A.J. DillonRB

14 att, 63 yds, 2 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

11/14 for 136 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Allen LazardWR

6/6 for 72 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 25	10	58	3:12	Turnover on downs
2	MIN	MIN 34	6	24	2:42	Turnover on downs
3	GB	GB 47	7	42	4:31	Turnover on downs
4	MIN	MIN 11	4	7	1:45	Punt
5	GB	GB 37	4	8	2:15	Punt
6	MIN	MIN 31	4	6	2:06	Punt
7	GB	GB 21	8	61	4:18	Turnover on downs
8	MIN	MIN 25	5	-4	1:39	Punt
9	GB	GB 34	7	66	3:21	Touchdown
10	MIN	MIN 25	5	-5	2:03	Punt
11	GB	GB 36	7	64	1:03	Touchdown
12	MIN	MIN 25	10	42	1:05	Turnover on downs
13	MIN	MIN 25	5	2	1:41	Punt
14	GB	MIN 37	8	34	3:51	Touchdown
15	MIN	MIN 25	7	26	2:18	Turnover on downs
16	GB	GB 49	8	32	3:48	Turnover on downs
17	MIN	MIN 35	10	65	3:22	Touchdown
18	GB	GB 30	13	70	6:19	Touchdown
19	MIN	MIN 19	5	5	1:23	Punt
20	GB	GB 14	12	47	5:29	Punt
21	MIN	MIN 20	7	38	1:23	Turnover on downs
22	GB	GB 37	1	0	0:26	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 70 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sean Mannion	22/36	189	1	0	2	-10.9
Kellen Mond	2/3	5	0	0	0	-1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sean Mannion	2	14	7.0	0	2.5
Dalvin Cook	9	13	1.4	0	-4.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	6	11	58	0	30%	-3.7
K.J. Osborn	3	5	50	1	14%	1.8
Tyler Conklin	5	9	47	0	24%	-0.8
Garrett Bradbury	1	1	21	0	3%	1.5
Alexander Mattison	4	5	13	0	14%	-1.8
Dede Westbrook	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.0
C.J. Ham	1	2	1	0	5%	-3.5
Dalvin Cook	3	3	0	0	8%	-3.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Anthony Barr	4	4	0
Xavier Woods	6	1	0
Eric Kendricks	4	3	0
Harrison Smith	4	3	0
Kris Boyd	5	1	0
Tye Smith	4	0	0
Patrick Peterson	3	1	0
James Lynch	3	1	0
Kenny Willekes	2	2	0
Mackensie Alexander	2	2	1

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	29/38	288	2	0	0	10.0
Jordan Love	2/4	19	0	0	0	-0.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	8	76	9.5	0	2.9
A.J. Dillon	14	63	4.5	2	2.6
Patrick Taylor	6	18	3.0	0	-1.2
Jordan Love	2	9	4.5	0	1.6
Aaron Rodgers	2	8	4.0	0	1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	11	14	136	1	33%	6.0
Allen Lazard	6	6	72	1	14%	7.1
Aaron Jones	5	6	30	0	14%	-0.7
A.J. Dillon	2	3	20	0	7%	1.0
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	2	14	0	5%	0.9
Juwann Winfree	1	2	12	0	5%	0.2
Josiah Deguara	2	3	11	0	7%	-0.5
Tyler Davis	2	2	9	0	5%	-0.6
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	3	3	0	7%	-3.0
Dominique Dafney	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
De'Vondre Campbell	6	1	0.0	0
Krys Barnes	3	2	0.0	2
Preston Smith	3	1	1.0	1
Eric Stokes	2	1	0.0	0
Adrian Amos	2	1	0.0	0
Rasul Douglas	2	1	0.0	1
Chandon Sullivan	3	0	0.0	0
Rashan Gary	2	0	1.0	0
Kevin King	2	0	0.0	0
Tyler Lancaster	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -13
Closing total: 42
MIN moneyline: +525
GB moneyline: -702

Packers closed -13 and covered, winning by 27.

Total closed 42; the game landed 47 — over by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 11°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: MIN 7 days · GB 8 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Matt LaFleur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.