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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Minnesota Vikings 10 at Green Bay Packers 37. Final.
Packers -13 ✓O 42 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 17
Green Bay Packers 37, Vikings 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 1:33, 3rd and 1, on A.J. Dillon — 5.5 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:33 · 3rd and 1
A.J. Dillon
Vikings
(1:33) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon right guard to GB 45 for -1 yards (92-J.Lynch).
11°F
Packers closed -13 and covered, winning by 27.
Green Bay Packers 37–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 1:33, Vikings +5.5% win probability on one snap.
5.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Davante AdamsPackersQ1 13:19(13:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at MIN 17 for 30 yards (24-M.Alexander).
4.3pts
Unnamed on the sheetPackersQ1 0:41(:41) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 24 yards to MIN 31, Center-46-S.Wirtel, out of bounds.
3.9pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Vikings at 2 of 12 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.28 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at -0.30 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Vikings158 of 169 plays carry both curves
(1:33) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon right guard to GB 45 for -1 yards (92-J.Lynch).
Swing −5.5 for PackersExpected points −2.28 for PackersThe model had Vikings 22 points higher than the market did.play 32
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:33MIN +5% win prob(1:33) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon right guard to GB 45 for -1 yards (92-J.Lynch).
1st · 13:19GB +4% win prob(13:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at MIN 17 for 30 yards (24-M.Alexander).
1st · 0:41GB +4% win prob(:41) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 24 yards to MIN 31, Center-46-S.Wirtel, out of bounds.
1st · 10:55MIN +3% win prob(10:55) 33-D.Cook right end ran ob at GB 48 for 3 yards (51-K.Barnes).
2nd · 4:18GB +3% win prob(4:18) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 13-A.Lazard for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:37MIN +3% win prob(13:37) 3-J.Berry punts 42 yards to GB 21, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
1st · 3:00GB +3% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mason Crosby's 35-yard field goal with 11:51 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:51Mason Crosby·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap S.WirtelLead never changed again+30–3
2nd9:15Mason Crosby·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap S.Wirtel+30–6
Packers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.28Vikings: −0.28 expected points added per play
+0.23Packers: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.30Vikings: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.28Packers: +0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Vikings: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.15Packers: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 52 snaps at a 81% dropback rate against Packers’s 73 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 1, Packers 8.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's early-down pass rate, 77.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 5.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 61.2% in week 16.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
36 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
high through week 17Against their seasonOver Expected
MIN's pass rate over expected, +6.4 pts, is past their previous high of +1.2 pts in week 6 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points.
GB's pass rate over expected turned over: +2.1 pts in week 16 against +12.6 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.5 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.55× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Packers11.9%
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.8%, 24.5 points above their season mean of 53.2% and 2.5 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at MIN 17 for 30 yards (24-M.Alexander).
Q1 13:19 · Packers · 3rd & 3 at MIN 47 · gained 30 · +2.69 EP · +9.7% win probability
156 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 70 yards from the GB 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
44%
Yards
687
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.2266%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.2886%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.2136%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.5050%
Packers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+0.3360%
Vikings0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR5+0.6080%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Vikings0Packers3
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 17
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Packers 47
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Packers 47 to the Vikings 11
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 11 to the Vikings 18
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 37 to the Packers 46
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Vikings 36 to the Vikings 37
Vikings0Packers6
Field goal8 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Vikings 18
Punt5 plays
Vikings0Packers12
Vikings0Packers13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Vikings 20
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 26
Vikings0Packers19
Vikings0Packers20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 36 to the Vikings 11
Vikings3Packers20
Field goal15 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Packers 33
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 27
Vikings3Packers26
Vikings3Packers27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 37 to the Vikings 4
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Packers 49
Vikings3Packers30
Field goal8 plays, from the Packers 49 to the Vikings 19
Vikings9Packers30
Vikings10Packers30
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Packers 14
4th quarter42 plays
Vikings10Packers36
Vikings10Packers37
Touchdown15 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Vikings 7
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 19 to the Vikings 25
Punt12 plays, from the Packers 14 to the Vikings 38
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Packers 37
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
