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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:42 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 17
It turned at Q4 0:30, 1st and 10, on Rodney McLeod — 35.4 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 0:30, Eagles +35.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:30 · 1st and 10
Rodney McLeod
Eagles
(:30) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left intended for 87-J.Bates INTERCEPTED by 23-R.McLeod at PHI -2. Touchback.
35.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Commanders at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 15 on third down, against Eagles at 4 of 12 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.35 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.10 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.03 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 19.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(:30) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left intended for 87-J.Bates INTERCEPTED by 23-R.McLeod at PHI -2. Touchback.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jake Elliott's 42-yard field goal with 11:45 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Jake Elliott42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.LovatoLead never changed again+317–168 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryCommanders
Eagles ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 60 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Commanders’s 60 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 2, Commanders 4.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles-8.2 ptsright on their number · −2.0 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 60 snaps
Commanders0.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 92%
Tendencies room →Eagles45.5%right on their number · −4.5 vs their 50.0%, and they swing ±16.4 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 44 early downs
Commanders63.6%inside their normal wobble · +9.4 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Eagles57.1%inside their normal wobble · +20.3 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±25.9 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
Commanders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 34%
Tendencies room →Eagles10.0%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Commanders10.3%inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was WAS's early-down pass rate, 63.6% against a season mean of 54.3% — and WAS swings 11.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
27/36, 247 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-4.7 expected points added · +7.0% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
17/26, 214 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
7.5 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jaret Patterson banked 6.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston ScottRB · Committee Back | 24.6 | +3.3 | 52% | 48% | 16% | 2% | 14 car, 47 yd, 2 TD · 4/4, 39 yd |
| Jaret PattersonRB · Committee Back | 20.8 | +6.7 | 62% | 54% | 15% | 0% | 12 car, 57 yd, 1 TD · 5/5, 41 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Alpha Receiver | 13.1 | +1.5 | 93% | 86% | 28% | 25% | 6/7, 71 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Featured Receiver | 13.1 | +1.8 | 95% | 90% | 24% | 12% | 7/8, 61 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 13.0 | −2.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/26, 214 yd · 7 car, 44 yd |
| Taylor HeinickeQB · Starter QB | 9.3 | −3.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/36, 247 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 14 yd |
| Cam SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.8 | +0.4 | 75% | 76% | 15% | 33% | 4/5, 48 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Featured Receiver | 8.4 | −4.7 | 95% | 93% | 24% | 41% | 3/6, 54 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | −1.0 | 92% | 88% | 12% | 22% | 3/4, 35 yd |
| Greg WardWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | +2.5 | 21% | 17% | 8% | 12% | 2/2, 35 yd |
| Wendell SmallwoodRB | 4.2 | −2.2 | 25% | 29% | 9% | 0% | 4 car, 12 yd · 2/3, 10 yd |
| Quez WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −2.8 | 51% | 52% | 16% | 10% | 2/4, 15 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +1.5 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Adam HumphriesWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +0.4 | 52% | 68% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 12 yd |
| Jonathan WilliamsRB | 3.1 | −2.3 | 13% | 12% | 9% | 0% | 2 car, 4 yd · 2/3, 7 yd |
| Jordan HowardRB · Committee Back | 2.6 | −8.0 | 34% | 31% | 4% | 4% | 11 car, 26 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ricky Seals-JonesTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −1.9 | 21% | 15% | 6% | 14% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.6 | −0.1 | 35% | 22% | 0% | — | 1 car, 6 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 0.4 | 0.0 | 13% | 14% | 0% | — | 1 car, 4 yd |
| Dax MilneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.1 | −2.3 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.3 | −2.9 | 51% | 62% | 4% | 5% | 1 car, -3 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:30) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left intended for 87-J.Bates INTERCEPTED by 23-R.McLeod at PHI -2. Touchback.
Q4 0:30 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at PHI 20 · gained nothing · -3.72 EP · −44.6% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 80 yards from the PHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Eagles0
Commanders6Eagles0Commanders7Eagles0Commanders10Eagles6Commanders10Eagles7Commanders10Eagles7Commanders13Eagles7Commanders16Eagles13Commanders16Eagles14Commanders16Eagles17Commanders16Eagles20Commanders16Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 17/26 | 214 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +7.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Scott | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 2 | +4.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 0 | +4.8 |
| Jordan Howard |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 7 | 71 | 0 | 28% | +5.6 |
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Edwards | 7 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Singleton | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Harris |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 27/36 | 247 | 0 | 1 | 3 | −4.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_17_PHI_WAS
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -6.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 36 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 11 |
| 26 |
| 2.4 |
| 0 |
| −7.0 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| +1.5 |
| Boston Scott | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 16% | +2.4 |
| Greg Ward | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 8% | +4.1 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 16% | −0.9 |
| Jordan Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.2 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Javon Hargrave | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 |
| Rodney McLeod | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Avonte Maddox | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Genard Avery | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fletcher Cox | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Barnett | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 1 | +1.2 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Jonathan Williams | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 8 | 61 | 0 | 24% | +1.6 |
| Cam Sims | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 15% | +1.8 |
| Jaret Patterson | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 15% | +2.9 |
| John Bates | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 12% | −1.5 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | −0.1 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 9% | −0.8 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | +0.1 |
| Jonathan Williams | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 9% | −1.1 |
| Dax Milne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −2.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamren Curl | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Holcomb | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| David Mayo | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Allen | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby McCain | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Toohill | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corn Elder | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Danny Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
