2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · FedExField

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

Washington Commanders

PHI -6.5 no coverU 44.5 ✓Eagles closed -6.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Philadelphia Eagles 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 0:30, PHI +35% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:30PHI — WAS WAS ball · 1st & 10PHI 63%

(:30) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left intended for 87-J.Bates INTERCEPTED by 23-R.McLeod at PHI -2. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:30PHI +35% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left intended for 87-J.Bates INTERCEPTED by 23-R.McLeod at PHI -2. Touchback.
Q1 · 7:05PHI +13% win prob(7:05) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (98-M.Ioannidis, 31-K.Curl).
Q3 · 7:27WAS +13% win prob(7:27) 35-B.Scott right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 4:12WAS +13% win prob(4:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to PHI 49 for 22 yards (37-C.Elder).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Commanders
Offensive plays	60	60
Total yards	331 (edge)	312
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	5.2
Expected points added / play	0.16 (edge)	-0.03
Success rate	48%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	48%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.35 (edge)	-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02	0.12 (edge)
Third downs	4/12	9/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	4
First downs gained on snaps	18	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

27/36, 247 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-4.7 expected points added · +7.0% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

17/26, 214 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

7.5 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Jaret PattersonRB

12 att, 57 yds, 1 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Boston ScottRB

14 att, 47 yds, 2 TD

4.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

Dallas GoedertTE

6/7 for 71 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

7/8 for 61 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 33	8	67	3:06	Touchdown
2	PHI	PHI 25	9	51	4:56	Turnover on downs
3	WAS	WAS 24	9	58	4:58	Turnover on downs
4	PHI	PHI 20	13	80	5:11	Touchdown
5	WAS	WAS 25	12	49	6:13	Turnover on downs
6	PHI	PHI 25	8	30	3:30	Punt
7	WAS	WAS 6	11	57	2:05	Turnover on downs
8	PHI	—	1	0	0:01	End of half
9	PHI	PHI 25	16	80	7:39	Touchdown
10	WAS	WAS 25	5	-5	1:59	Punt
11	PHI	PHI 42	5	14	1:10	Punt
12	WAS	WAS 9	7	13	3:23	Punt
13	PHI	PHI 43	9	48	4:08	Turnover on downs
14	WAS	WAS 21	8	18	4:10	Turnover on downs
15	PHI	PHI 49	10	28	5:10	Turnover on downs
16	WAS	WAS 25	12	55	1:57	Interception
17	PHI	PHI 20	1	0	0:24	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 80 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	17/26	214	0	0	1	7.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Boston Scott	14	47	3.4	2	4.8
Jalen Hurts	7	44	6.3	0	4.8
Jordan Howard	11	26	2.4	0	-7.0
Kenneth Gainwell	1	4	4.0	0	0.6
Jalen Reagor	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Dallas Goedert	6	7	71	28%	5.6
DeVonta Smith	3	6	54	24%	1.5
Boston Scott	4	4	39	16%	2.4
Greg Ward	2	2	35	8%	4.1
Quez Watkins	2	4	15	16%	-0.9
Jordan Howard	0	1	0	4%	-0.5
Jalen Reagor	0	1	0	4%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
T.J. Edwards	7	7	0.0	0	0
Alex Singleton	4	4	0.0	0	0
Anthony Harris	4	2	0.0	0	1
Javon Hargrave	2	3	0.0	0	0
Josh Sweat	3	2	1.5	0	2
Rodney McLeod	3	2	0.0	1	1
Avonte Maddox	4	0	0.0	0	1
Genard Avery	1	2	1.0	0	0
Fletcher Cox	1	2	0.5	0	0
Derek Barnett	1	1	0.0	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	27/36	247	0	1	3	-4.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jaret Patterson	12	57	4.8	1	1.2
Taylor Heinicke	2	14	7.0	0	0.6
Wendell Smallwood	4	12	3.0	0	1.3
DeAndre Carter	1	6	6.0	0	0.6
Jonathan Williams	2	4	2.0	0	-0.0
Dax Milne	1	1	1.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	7	8	61	24%	1.6
Cam Sims	4	5	48	15%	1.8
Jaret Patterson	5	5	41	15%	2.9
John Bates	3	4	35	12%	-1.5
Dyami Brown	1	1	25	3%	1.4
Adam Humphries	2	2	12	6%	-0.1
Wendell Smallwood	2	3	10	9%	-0.8
Ricky Seals-Jones	1	2	8	6%	0.1
Jonathan Williams	2	3	7	9%	-1.1
Dax Milne	0	1	0	3%	-2.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Kamren Curl	5	4	0
Cole Holcomb	3	6	1
David Mayo	2	3	0
Kendall Fuller	5	0	1
Jonathan Allen	2	3	0
Bobby McCain	3	1	0
Casey Toohill	3	1	0
Corn Elder	3	0	1
Danny Johnson	2	1	0
Daron Payne	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -6.5
Closing total: 44.5
PHI moneyline: -238
WAS moneyline: +206

Eagles closed -6.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 36 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 62°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: PHI 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Nick Sirianni vs Ron Rivera

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.