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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Eagles152 of 163 plays carry both curves
(:30) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left intended for 87-J.Bates INTERCEPTED by 23-R.McLeod at PHI -2. Touchback.
Swing −35.4 for CommandersExpected points −3.72 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 11 points higher than the market did.play 161
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:30PHI +35% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left intended for 87-J.Bates INTERCEPTED by 23-R.McLeod at PHI -2. Touchback.
1st · 7:05PHI +13% win prob(7:05) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (98-M.Ioannidis, 31-K.Curl).
3rd · 7:27WAS +13% win prob(7:27) 35-B.Scott right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:12WAS +13% win prob(4:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to PHI 49 for 22 yards (37-C.Elder).
2nd · 11:52WAS +11% win prob(11:52) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:10WAS +11% win prob(10:10) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 84-G.Ward to WAS 4 for 27 yards (37-C.Elder).
4th · 7:36PHI +11% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Elliott's 42-yard field goal with 11:45 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
4th11:45Jake Elliott·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.LovatoLead never changed again+317–16
4th2:25Jake Elliott·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.Lovato+320–16
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryCommanders
Eagles5–3Commanders
331Total yards312
5.5Yards per play5.2
48%Success rate50%
33%Third-down rate60%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays4
18First downs22
1Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Eagles ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Eagles: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.03Commanders: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.35Eagles: +0.35 expected points added per play
−0.10Commanders: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Eagles: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.12Commanders: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 60 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Commanders’s 60 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 2, Commanders 4.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −2.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Commanders10.3%
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was WAS's early-down pass rate, 63.6% against a season mean of 54.3% — and WAS swings 11.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Heinicke pass−45% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:30) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left intended for 87-J.Bates INTERCEPTED by 23-R.McLeod at PHI -2. Touchback.
Q4 0:30 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at PHI 20 · gained nothing · -3.72 EP · −44.6% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 80 yards from the PHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
45%
Yards
642
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.0669%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.1959%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.0318%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR13+0.2846%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.0630%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Eagles0Commanders6
Eagles0Commanders7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Eagles 11
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 24
Eagles0Commanders10
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Eagles 13
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 39
2nd quarter47 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Eagles6Commanders10
Eagles7Commanders10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 47 to the Commanders 2
Eagles7Commanders13
Field goal13 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Eagles 19
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 43
Eagles7Commanders16
Field goal16 plays, from the Commanders 6 to the Eagles 37
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.4 seconds
Eagles13Commanders16
Eagles14Commanders16
Touchdown17 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 1
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 29
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the Commanders 44
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 9 to the Commanders 31
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter44 plays
Eagles17Commanders16
Field goal8 plays, from the Eagles 47 to the Commanders 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Commanders 21 to the Eagles 49
Eagles20Commanders16
Field goal11 plays, from the Eagles 49 to the Commanders 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Eagles 20
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
