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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:25 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 18
It turned at Q2 4:58, 4th and 1, on Sam Darnold — 13.4 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:58 · 4th and 1
Sam Darnold
Buccaneers
(4:58) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to TB 2 for no gain (96-S.McLendon). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:58, Buccaneers +13.4% win probability on one snap.
13.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.30 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.20 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.16 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 16.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(4:58) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to TB 2 for no gain (96-S.McLendon). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Le'Veon Bell's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:19 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Buccaneers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 70 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 59 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 4, Buccaneers 6.
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's pass rate over expected turned over: −9.4 pts in week 17 against +7.3 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
TB's pass rate over expected turned over: −0.7 pts in week 17 against +15.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 28 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers7.3 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.6 vs their -1.3 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 70 snaps
Buccaneers15.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +7.3 vs their 8.1 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.96× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 90%
Tendencies room →Panthers66.0%inside their normal wobble · +9.3 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 50 early downs
Buccaneers61.7%right on their number · −2.4 vs their 64.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32% to 99%
Fourth Down room →Panthers50.0%inside their normal wobble · +16.6 vs their 33.4%, and they swing ±25.6 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers20.0%inside their normal wobble · −10.7 vs their 30.7%, and they swing ±20.6 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →Panthers5.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Buccaneers12.0%inside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
CAR's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 7.3 pts, 8.6 points above their season mean of -1.3 pts and 1.3 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
29/37, 326 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
17.8 expected points added · +13.1% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
29/42, 219 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-5.5 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Mike Evans banked 12.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike EvansWR · Featured Receiver | 26.9 | +12.8 | 72% | 85% | 18% | 18% | 6/7, 89 yd, 2 TD |
| Tom BradyQB · Starter QB | 25.0 | +6.4 | 85% | — | 0% | — | 29/37, 326 yd, 3 TD |
| Rob GronkowskiTE · Alpha Receiver | 20.7 | +3.0 | 83% | 93% | 26% | 37% | 7/10, 137 yd |
| Robbie ChosenWR · Featured Receiver | 18.0 | +4.6 | 75% | 72% | 21% | 29% | 7/9, 50 yd, 1 TD |
| Ameer AbdullahRB · Committee Back | 17.2 | −1.8 | 56% | 56% | 26% | 0% | 7 car, 26 yd · 9/11, 56 yd |
| D.J. MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 17.0 | +0.3 | 76% | 70% | 24% | 36% | 1 car, 13 yd · 7/10, 87 yd |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 14.7 | −7.4 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 29/42, 219 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 8 car, 19 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB | 13.6 | +4.4 | 44% | 34% | 5% | 0% | 9 car, 48 yd · 2/2, 8 yd, 1 TD |
| Scott MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.2 | +9.4 | 23% | 18% | 3% | 3% | 2 car, 43 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Ke'Shawn VaughnRB · Committee Back | 12.1 | +1.7 | 45% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 10 car, 29 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 12 yd |
| Breshad PerrimanWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.4 | −0.3 | 62% | 70% | 16% | 14% | 5/6, 44 yd |
| Le'Veon BellRB | 8.5 | +1.4 | 38% | 50% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 14 yd · 1/1, 1 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler JohnsonWR · Featured Receiver | 7.2 | −3.4 | 87% | 88% | 18% | 9% | 5/7, 22 yd |
| Cameron BrateTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −1.0 | 17% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2/3, 12 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −7.5 | 58% | 52% | 12% | 10% | 1 car, 4 yd · 2/5, 7 yd |
| C.J. SaundersWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +0.3 | 21% | 26% | 5% | 4% | 2/2, 11 yd |
| Giovanni RicciTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 13% | 2% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Brandon ZylstraWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.8 | 69% | 58% | 5% | 22% | 0/1, 0 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Keith KirkwoodWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 14% | 12% | 2% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Alex EricksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kenjon BarnerRB | 0.0 | −1.6 | 15% | 5% | 0% | — | 4 car, 0 yd |
| Jaelon DardenWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.7 | 13% | 8% | 3% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Blaine GabbertQB | -0.1 | −1.7 | 15% | — | 0% | — | 0/2, 0 yd · 1 car, -1 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:58) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to TB 2 for no gain (96-S.McLendon). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)
Q2 4:58 · Panthers · 4th & 1 at TB 2 · gained nothing · -3.63 EP · −12.5% win probability
161 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 92 yards from the TB 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Panthers6
Buccaneers0Panthers7Buccaneers0Panthers7Buccaneers3Panthers7Buccaneers9Panthers7Buccaneers10Panthers7Buccaneers16Panthers7Buccaneers17Panthers10Buccaneers17Panthers10Buccaneers23Panthers10Buccaneers24Panthers16Buccaneers24Panthers17Buccaneers24Panthers17Buccaneers30Panthers17Buccaneers31Panthers17Buccaneers34Panthers17Buccaneers40Panthers17Buccaneers41Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 29/42 | 219 | 2 | 1 | 2 | −5.5 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Sam Darnold |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Moore | 7 | 10 | 87 | 0 | 24% | +2.8 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 9 | 11 | 56 | 0 | 26% | +0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Hartsfield | 7 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Carter | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Franklin |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/37 | 326 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +17.8 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2.2 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_18_CAR_TB
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -11 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 43; the game landed 58 — over by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 8 |
| 19 |
| 2.4 |
| 0 |
| −9.7 |
| D.J. Moore | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Robbie Chosen | 7 | 9 | 50 | 1 | 21% | −2.1 |
| C.J. Saunders | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5% | −0.3 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 5% | +2.5 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 12% | −2.5 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −3.3 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Frankie Luvu | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Henderson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keith Taylor | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Robinson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaQuan Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Miller | 2 | 43 | 21.5 | 1 | +4.5 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 1 | −0.7 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Kenjon Barner | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 10 | 137 | 0 | 26% | +7.1 |
| Mike Evans | 6 | 7 | 89 | 2 | 18% | +7.0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 16% | +2.8 |
| Tyler Johnson | 5 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 18% | −0.9 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 5% | +1.2 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 8% | −1.8 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3% | +2.0 |
| Jaelon Darden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Winfield | 6 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Minter | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K.J. Britt | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Steve McLendon | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ross Cockrell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
