2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium

Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -11 ✓O 43 ✓Buccaneers closed -11 and covered, winning by 24.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:58, CAR +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:58CAR — TB CAR ball · 4th & 1TB 55%

(4:58) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to TB 2 for no gain (96-S.McLendon). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:58CAR +13% win prob(4:58) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to TB 2 for no gain (96-S.McLendon). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)
Q2 · 1:22TB +10% win prob(1:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 13-M.Evans to TB 45 for 37 yards (38-M.Hartsfield; 49-F.Luvu).
Q2 · 8:46TB +8% win prob(8:46) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 20-A.Abdullah to TB 22 for 18 yards (32-M.Edwards, 9-J.Tryon).
Q1 · 11:51TB +7% win prob(11:51) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 2-Dj.Moore to TB 30 for 11 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting; 33-J.Whitehead).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	70	59
Total yards	318	410 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	6.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.20	0.30 (edge)
Success rate	40%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	0.39 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.29	0.10 (edge)
Third downs	4/14	4/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

29/37, 326 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.8 expected points added · +13.1% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

29/42, 219 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-5.5 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

9 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Ke'Shawn VaughnRB

10 att, 29 yds, 1 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Rob GronkowskiTE

7/10 for 137 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/7 for 89 yds, 2 TD

18% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	16	70	7:38	Touchdown
2	TB	TB 27	5	3	1:34	Punt
3	CAR	CAR 25	10	36	5:48	Turnover on downs
4	TB	TB 39	10	40	3:51	Turnover on downs
5	CAR	CAR 25	13	68	6:12	Turnover on downs
6	TB	TB 1	4	5	1:25	Punt
7	CAR	TB 48	4	15	1:44	Punt
8	TB	TB 8	9	92	1:33	Touchdown
9	CAR	CAR 20	2	0	0:15	End of half
10	TB	TB 23	9	77	3:03	Touchdown
11	CAR	CAR 32	5	5	1:02	Punt
12	TB	TB 17	4	6	1:29	Punt
13	CAR	CAR 31	9	52	4:42	Turnover on downs
14	TB	TB 38	13	62	4:48	Touchdown
15	CAR	CAR 44	10	56	4:22	Touchdown
16	TB	TB 25	8	75	3:00	Touchdown
17	CAR	CAR 25	4	8	1:05	Fumble
18	TB	CAR 27	4	5	1:25	Turnover on downs
19	CAR	CAR 25	5	9	0:47	Turnover on downs
20	TB	CAR 33	2	33	0:10	Touchdown
21	CAR	CAR 27	2	0	0:16	Interception
22	TB	CAR 40	6	12	2:00	Turnover on downs
23	CAR	CAR 36	4	-1	1:14	Turnover on downs
24	TB	CAR 35	1	0	0:37	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 92 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	29/42	219	2	1	2	-5.5
Brandon Zylstra	0/1	0	0	0	0	-1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	9	48	5.3	-0.2
Ameer Abdullah	7	26	3.7	-0.2
Sam Darnold	8	19	2.4	-9.7
D.J. Moore	1	13	13.0	2.9
Tommy Tremble	1	4	4.0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	7	10	87	0	24%	2.8
Ameer Abdullah	9	11	56	0	26%	0.3
Robbie Chosen	7	9	50	1	21%	-2.1
C.J. Saunders	2	2	11	0	5%	-0.3
Chuba Hubbard	2	2	8	1	5%	2.5
Tommy Tremble	2	5	7	0	12%	-2.5
Brandon Zylstra	0	2	0	0	5%	-3.3
Keith Kirkwood	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Myles Hartsfield	7	4	1.0
Jermaine Carter	3	3	0.0
Shaq Thompson	3	3	0.0
Sam Franklin	4	0	0.0
Frankie Luvu	2	2	0.0
C.J. Henderson	3	1	0.0
Keith Taylor	2	2	0.0
Kenny Robinson	3	0	0.0
DaQuan Jones	1	2	0.0
Tommy Tremble	1	0	0.0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	29/37	326	3	0	1	17.8
Blaine Gabbert	0/2	0	0	0	0	-2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Scott Miller	2	43	21.5	1	4.5
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	10	29	2.9	1	-0.7
Le'Veon Bell	3	14	4.7	0	0.2
Kenjon Barner	4	0	0.0	0	-2.2
Blaine Gabbert	1	-1	-1.0	0	-2.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rob Gronkowski	7	10	137	0	26%	7.1
Mike Evans	6	7	89	2	18%	7.0
Breshad Perriman	5	6	44	0	16%	2.8
Tyler Johnson	5	7	22	0	18%	-0.9
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	2	2	12	0	5%	1.2
Cameron Brate	2	3	12	0	8%	-1.8
Scott Miller	1	1	9	0	3%	0.9
Le'Veon Bell	1	1	1	1	3%	2.0
Jaelon Darden	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Antoine Winfield	6	2	1.0	0
Kevin Minter	5	2	0.0	0
Jamel Dean	5	1	0.0	0
Jordan Whitehead	4	1	0.0	1
Sean Murphy-Bunting	2	2	0.0	0
Anthony Nelson	2	2	1.0	0
K.J. Britt	2	2	0.0	1
Steve McLendon	3	0	0.0	0
Ross Cockrell	2	1	0.0	0
Devin White	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -11
Closing total: 43
CAR moneyline: +375
TB moneyline: -510

Buccaneers closed -11 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 43; the game landed 58 — over by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 80°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: CAR 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Matt Rhule vs Bruce Arians

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.