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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 18
It turned at Q4 13:44, 3rd and 2, on Justin Jefferson — 20.8 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Minnesota Vikings 31–17. Biggest swing: Q4 13:44, Vikings +20.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:44 · 3rd and 2
Justin Jefferson
Vikings
(13:44) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.36 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Bears at 3 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.10 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Bears at 2 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
(13:44) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
K.J. Osborn's 21-yard touchdown catch with 8:11 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
K.J. Osborn21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk CousinsLead never changed again+717–249 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bearscategory by categoryVikings
Vikings ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 81 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Vikings’s 46 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, Vikings 3.
Bears outgained Vikings 358-332 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 77.8% in week 17 against 45.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
MIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 6.7% in week 17 against 17.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
MIN's pass rate over expected turned over: +6.4 pts in week 17 against −5.8 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Bears4.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.2 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 80 snaps
Vikings-5.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.1 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 46 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 82%
Tendencies room →Bears62.7%inside their normal wobble · +7.8 vs their 54.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 59 early downs
Vikings45.5%inside their normal wobble · −7.8 vs their 53.2%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 33 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 154%
Fourth Down room →Bears100.0%leaned — went for it · +40.7 vs their 59.3%, and they swing ±37.1 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Vikings—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 41%
Tendencies room →Bears28.0%leaned — got home · +12.4 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.27× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Vikings17.5%inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
CHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.0%, 12.4 points above their season mean of 15.6% and 1.3 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CHI
33/48, 325 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-21.1 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
14/22, 250 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
8.1 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected
Receiving · CHI
12/16 for 126 yds, 0 TD
35% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added
Receiving · MIN
5/7 for 107 yds, 1 TD
33% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Ihmir Smith-Marsette banked 13.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell MooneyWR · Alpha Receiver | 24.6 | −1.2 | 90% | 95% | 35% | 32% | 12/16, 126 yd |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.1 | +9.5 | 96% | 96% | 33% | 34% | 1 car, 4 yd · 5/7, 107 yd, 1 TD |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 21.9 | +12.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/22, 250 yd, 3 TD · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 19.3 | +13.9 | 50% | 64% | 14% | 30% | 3/3, 103 yd, 1 TD |
| Andy DaltonQB · Starter QB | 15.7 | −6.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 33/48, 325 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 7 yd |
| Damien WilliamsRB · Receiving Back | 12.3 | +3.6 | 20% | 26% | 11% | 6% | 3/5, 33 yd, 1 TD |
| David MontgomeryRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.9 | −4.4 | 60% | 49% | 7% | 1% | 20 car, 72 yd · 2/3, 7 yd |
| Damiere ByrdWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.7 | +0.8 | 56% | 63% | 13% | 11% | 5/6, 47 yd |
| Dalvin CookRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.2 | +0.9 | 54% | 48% | 5% | 1% | 14 car, 79 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Featured Receiver | 9.1 | +1.4 | 81% | 96% | 19% | 23% | 1/4, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Cole KmetTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.8 | +0.3 | 74% | 77% | 11% | 14% | 4/5, 48 yd |
| Allen RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | −1.9 | 65% | 56% | 9% | 13% | 2/4, 22 yd |
| Jimmy GrahamTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +0.6 | 24% | 25% | 4% | 4% | 2/2, 16 yd |
| Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −1.7 | 32% | 35% | 7% | 8% | 2/3, 13 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB | 3.1 | −0.7 | 38% | 40% | 5% | 1% | 5 car, 18 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Featured Receiver | 2.6 | −3.3 | 67% | 84% | 19% | 4% | 2/4, 6 yd |
| Dazz NewsomeWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −0.5 | 26% | 19% | 4% | 6% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| C.J. HamRB | 1.7 | +0.2 | 27% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Khalil HerbertRB | 1.1 | −0.9 | 21% | 23% | 0% | — | 4 car, 11 yd |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 0.4 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Luke StockerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 29% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Ben EllefsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dede WestbrookWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:44) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 13:44 · Vikings · 3rd & 2 at CHI 45 · gained 45 · +4.52 EP · +27.9% win probability
156 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 87 yards from the MIN 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bears3
Vikings0Bears6Vikings0Bears12Vikings0Bears14Vikings0Bears14Vikings3Bears14Vikings9Bears14Vikings10Bears17Vikings10Bears17Vikings16Bears17Vikings17Bears17Vikings23Bears17Vikings24Bears17Vikings30Bears17Vikings31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bears at Vikings, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 33/48 | 325 | 1 | 2 | 7 | −21.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 20 | 72 | 3.6 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Andy Dalton |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 12 | 16 | 126 | 0 | 35% | −0.1 |
| Cole Kmet | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 11% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Jackson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bilal Nichols |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 14/22 | 250 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +8.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_18_CHI_MIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 48 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 7 |
| 7.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.6 |
| +2.5 |
| Damiere Byrd | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 13% | +2.5 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 11% | +2.5 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 9% | +0.6 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 4% | +1.8 |
| Dazz Newsome | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 4% | −10.3 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 7% | +0.2 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7% | +0.4 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Deon Bush | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevis Gipson | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Alec Ogletree | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Artie Burns | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 14 | 79 | 5.6 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 5 | 7 | 107 | 1 | 33% | +7.5 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 3 | 3 | 103 | 1 | 14% | +10.0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 19% | +0.8 |
| C.J. Ham | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5% | +0.2 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 19% | −2.0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Barr | 5 | 5 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Dantzler | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Xavier Woods | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Wonnum | 5 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Peterson | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Vigil | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harrison Smith | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Tomlinson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Dye | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
