For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Bears158 of 167 plays carry both curves
(13:44) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +20.8 for VikingsExpected points +4.52 for VikingsThe model had Bears 6 points higher than the market did.play 125
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 13:44MIN +21% win prob(13:44) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 7:55CHI +14% win prob(7:55) 14-A.Dalton sacked at MIN 16 for -15 yards (55-A.Barr).
4th · 8:11MIN +13% win prob(8:11) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-K.Osborn for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:31MIN +13% win prob(12:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 15-I.Smith-Marsette for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:10CHI +11% win prob(5:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left intended for 83-D.Newsome INTERCEPTED by 7-P.Peterson [79-K.Willekes] at MIN 34. 7-P.Peterson for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:55MIN +10% win prob(8:55) 33-D.Cook left end to CHI 21 for 29 yards (26-D.Bush).
1st · 6:03
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
K.J. Osborn's 21-yard touchdown catch with 8:11 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st12:13Cairo Santos·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–0
2nd5:00Cairo Santos·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+36–0
2nd0:36Damien Williams·23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton · two-point good+814–0
2nd0:03Greg Joseph·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+314–3
Vikings ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.28Bears: −0.28 expected points added per play
+0.10Vikings: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.36Bears: −0.36 expected points added per play
+0.32Vikings: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Bears: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.16Vikings: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 81 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Vikings’s 46 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, Vikings 3.
NoteBears outgained Vikings 358-332 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 77.8% in week 17 against 45.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
MIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 6.7% in week 17 against 17.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points.
MIN's pass rate over expected turned over: +6.4 pts in week 17 against −5.8 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 13 pts
leaned — got home · +12.4 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.27× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Vikings17.5%
inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.0%, 12.4 points above their season mean of 15.6% and 1.3 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
65Cody WhitehairG · Every snap100%82 snaps
75Larry BoromT · Every snap100%82 snaps
67Sam MustipherC · Every snap100%82 snaps
68James DanielsG · Every snap100%82 snaps
14Andy DaltonQB · Every snap100%82 snaps
11Darnell MooneyWR · Full-time90%74 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Heavy rotation74%61 snaps
71Jason PetersT · Heavy rotation65%53 snaps
12Allen RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation65%53 snaps
32David MontgomeryRB · Heavy rotation60%49 snaps
10Damiere ByrdWR · Heavy rotation56%46 snaps
76Teven JenkinsT · Rotational35%29 snaps
84Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational32%26 snaps
18Jesse JamesTE · Rotational30%25 snaps
83Dazz NewsomeWR · Rotational26%21 snaps
80Jimmy GrahamTE · Situational24%20 snaps
24Khalil HerbertRB · Situational21%17 snaps
8Damien WilliamsRB · Situational20%16 snaps
81J.P. HoltzTE · Situational1%1 snap
64Alex BarsG · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Duke ShelleyCBAkiem HicksDTLachavious SimmonsGRyan NallRBElijah WilkinsonT
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Nick FolesQB
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
74Olisaemeka UdohT · Every snap100%48 snaps
75Brian O'NeillT · Every snap100%48 snaps
71Christian DarrisawT · Every snap100%48 snaps
72Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%48 snaps
56Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%48 snaps
8Kirk CousinsQB · Every snap100%48 snaps
18Justin JeffersonWR · Full-time96%46 snaps
17K.J. OsbornWR · Full-time81%39 snaps
83Tyler ConklinTE · Heavy rotation67%32 snaps
33Dalvin CookRB · Heavy rotation54%26 snaps
15Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR · Heavy rotation50%24 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass+28% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(13:44) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 13:44 · Vikings · 3rd & 2 at CHI 45 · gained 45 · +4.52 EP · +27.9% win probability
156 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 87 yards from the MIN 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
40%
Yards
689
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61-0.3075%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18+0.1567%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.2040%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.0213%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR3——
Vikings0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Bears3Vikings0
Field goal8 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Vikings 24
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 34
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bears 47 to the Vikings 35
Punt10 plays, from midfield to the Bears 28
The period ended4 plays, from the Bears 12 to the Bears 26
2nd quarter4 plays
Drive ended4 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Vikings 38
1st quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
2nd quarter43 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 13
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Vikings 21
Bears6Vikings0
Field goal8 plays, from the Bears 36 to the Vikings 28
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 14 to the Vikings 21
Bears12Vikings0
Bears14Vikings0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Vikings 23
Bears14Vikings3
Field goal8 plays, from the Vikings 24 to the Bears 11
3rd quarter38 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Bears14Vikings9
Bears14Vikings10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 41
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back and four tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsIn the boxTen defendersRushing the passerSix
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Vikings 1
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Vikings 25
Bears17Vikings10
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 42 to the Vikings 24
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 29
4th quarter45 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.5 seconds
Bears17Vikings16
Bears17Vikings17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Vikings 47 to the Bears 45
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Vikings 47
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Bears17Vikings23
Bears17Vikings24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 13 to the Bears 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.2 seconds
Bears17Vikings30
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 49
Bears17Vikings31
Intercepted3 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Vikings 49
Punt5 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Bears 29
The period ended3 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Bears 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
