2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Chicago Bears

Minnesota VikingsWinner

MIN -3.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓DomeVikings closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Minnesota Vikings 31–17. Biggest swing: Q4 13:44, MIN +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 13:44CHI — MIN MIN ball · 3rd & 2CHI 70%

(13:44) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 13:44MIN +21% win prob(13:44) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 7:55CHI +14% win prob(7:55) 14-A.Dalton sacked at MIN 16 for -15 yards (55-A.Barr).
Q4 · 8:11MIN +13% win prob(8:11) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-K.Osborn for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 12:31MIN +13% win prob(12:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 15-I.Smith-Marsette for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Vikings
Offensive plays	81	46
Total yards	358 (edge)	332
Yards per play	4.4	7.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.28	0.10 (edge)
Success rate	42% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	70%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.36	0.32 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	5/15	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	7	3 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Bears outgained Vikings 358–332 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Andy DaltonQB

33/48, 325 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-21.1 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

14/22, 250 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

8.1 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

14 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

20 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Darnell MooneyWR

12/16 for 126 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

5/7 for 107 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 37	8	39	2:51	Turnover on downs
2	MIN	MIN 25	5	3	1:59	Punt
3	CHI	CHI 47	8	3	4:11	Turnover on downs
4	MIN	50	10	9	4:48	Punt
5	CHI	CHI 12	11	70	5:38	Turnover on downs
6	MIN	MIN 18	4	3	1:35	Punt
7	CHI	CHI 36	8	36	4:03	Turnover on downs
8	MIN	MIN 14	5	7	1:45	Punt
9	CHI	CHI 33	10	64	2:39	Touchdown
10	MIN	MIN 24	5	65	0:31	Turnover on downs
11	MIN	MIN 25	8	75	2:36	Touchdown
12	CHI	CHI 25	11	42	4:36	Turnover on downs
13	MIN	MIN 16	4	0	2:01	Punt
14	CHI	CHI 42	9	34	4:10	Turnover on downs
15	MIN	MIN 25	8	75	3:02	Touchdown
16	CHI	CHI 25	7	19	2:42	Punt
17	MIN	MIN 13	7	87	2:49	Touchdown
18	CHI	CHI 25	8	24	3:10	Defensive touchdown
19	CHI	CHI 25	3	11	0:12	Interception
20	MIN	MIN 45	4	0	0:59	Punt
21	CHI	CHI 15	7	16	2:35	Turnover on downs
22	MIN	CHI 31	2	8	1:08	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 87 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	33/48	325	1	2	7	-21.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Montgomery	20	72	3.6	-1.1
Khalil Herbert	4	11	2.8	-0.8
Andy Dalton	1	7	7.0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darnell Mooney	12	16	126	0	35%	-0.1
Cole Kmet	4	5	48	0	11%	2.5
Damiere Byrd	5	6	47	0	13%	2.5
Damien Williams	3	5	33	1	11%	2.5
Allen Robinson	2	4	22	0	9%	0.6
Jimmy Graham	2	2	16	0	4%	1.8
Dazz Newsome	1	2	13	0	4%	-10.3
Marquise Goodwin	2	3	13	0	7%	0.2
David Montgomery	2	3	7	0	7%	0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	2	4	0.0	0
Eddie Jackson	4	1	0.0	1
Bilal Nichols	3	2	0.5	0
Deon Bush	3	1	0.0	0
Trevis Gipson	1	3	0.5	0
Alec Ogletree	1	3	0.0	0
Tashaun Gipson	3	0	0.0	0
Artie Burns	2	0	0.0	0
Jaylon Johnson	1	1	0.0	0
Khalil Herbert	1	0	0.0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	14/22	250	3	0	3	8.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dalvin Cook	14	79	5.6	-1.2
Alexander Mattison	5	18	3.6	-1.0
Justin Jefferson	1	4	4.0	-0.4
Kene Nwangwu	1	4	4.0	-0.8
Kirk Cousins	1	-1	-1.0	-3.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	5	7	107	1	33%	7.5
Ihmir Smith-Marsette	3	3	103	1	14%	10.0
K.J. Osborn	1	4	21	1	19%	0.8
C.J. Ham	1	1	7	0	5%	0.2
Tyler Conklin	2	4	6	0	19%	-2.0
Dalvin Cook	1	1	3	0	5%	-0.4
Alexander Mattison	1	1	3	0	5%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Anthony Barr	5	5	2.0	0	0
Cameron Dantzler	8	1	0.0	0	1
Xavier Woods	3	4	0.0	0	0
D.J. Wonnum	5	2	2.0	0	0
Patrick Peterson	6	1	0.0	1	1
Nick Vigil	5	2	0.0	0	0
Josh Metellus	4	2	0.0	0	1
Harrison Smith	2	4	0.0	0	0
Dalvin Tomlinson	2	2	1.0	0	0
Troy Dye	2	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -3.5
Closing total: 45.5
CHI moneyline: +160
MIN moneyline: -190

Vikings closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 48 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: CHI 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Mike Zimmer

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.