2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland BrownsWinner

CLE -6.5 no coverU 38 ✓22 mph windBrowns closed -6.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Cleveland Browns 21–16. Biggest swing: Q2 3:40, CIN +10% win probability on one snap. Played in 22 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 3:40CIN — CLE CLE ball · 1st & 10CLE 98%

(3:40) 5-C.Keenum sacked at CLE 23 for -11 yards (93-W.Ray). FUMBLES (93-W.Ray) [93-W.Ray], RECOVERED by CIN-41-T.Henderson at CLE 29. 41-T.Henderson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 3:40CIN +10% win prob(3:40) 5-C.Keenum sacked at CLE 23 for -11 yards (93-W.Ray). FUMBLES (93-W.Ray) [93-W.Ray], RECOVERED by CIN-41-T.Henderson at CLE 29. 41-T.Henderson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:31CLE +9% win prob(2:31) 8-B.Allen pass short right to 25-C.Evans for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 14:15CIN +8% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.
Q1 · 7:47CLE +7% win prob(7:47) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum scrambles left tackle to CLE 33 for 10 yards (29-V.Hargreaves).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Browns
Offensive plays	52	65
Total yards	182	377 (edge)
Yards per play	3.5	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.18	-0.01 (edge)
Success rate	29%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	42%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.33	-0.11 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	0.07
Third downs	5/14	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Case KeenumQB

17/24, 176 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-4.8 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Brandon AllenQB

15/29, 136 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-11.3 expected points added · -16.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

D'Ernest JohnsonRB

25 att, 123 yds, 1 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

9 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Jarvis LandryWR

6/8 for 75 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Trent TaylorWR

2/3 for 41 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 34	5	5	1:58	Punt
2	CLE	CLE 29	4	8	2:09	Punt
3	CIN	CIN 28	5	33	1:53	Punt
4	CLE	CLE 20	7	15	3:06	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 20	6	13	1:40	Punt
6	CLE	CLE 21	7	79	3:18	Touchdown
7	CIN	CIN 25	5	-4	1:52	Punt
8	CLE	CLE 42	7	46	2:42	Touchdown
9	CIN	CIN 28	5	2	1:37	Punt
10	CLE	CLE 21	4	9	1:49	Punt
11	CIN	CIN 48	5	16	2:58	Punt
12	CLE	CLE 16	3	13	1:30	Defensive touchdown
13	CLE	CLE 26	13	63	3:28	Interception
14	CLE	CLE 25	5	8	1:23	Punt
15	CIN	CIN 30	14	41	8:36	Turnover on downs
16	CLE	CLE 19	11	79	5:48	Turnover on downs
17	CIN	CIN 2	4	1	0:59	Punt
18	CLE	CIN 46	11	46	6:00	Touchdown
19	CIN	CIN 25	15	75	4:48	Touchdown
20	CLE	CLE 49	5	11	2:26	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 79 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brandon Allen	15/29	136	1	0	4	-11.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Trayveon Williams	9	38	4.2	1.3
Chris Evans	7	35	5.0	0.2
Brandon Allen	1	3	3.0	0.4
Stanley Morgan	1	3	3.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Trent Taylor	2	3	41	0	10%	3.2
Ja'Marr Chase	2	4	26	0	14%	-0.7
Chris Evans	4	5	24	1	17%	2.0
Mitchell Wilcox	3	5	16	0	17%	-1.9
Trenton Irwin	1	4	9	0	14%	-3.3
Stanley Morgan	1	2	8	0	7%	-0.2
Drew Sample	1	1	8	0	3%	-0.1
Trayveon Williams	1	2	4	0	7%	-0.7
Mike Thomas	0	3	0	0	10%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Clay Johnston	6	6	0
Markus Bailey	4	4	1
Tre Flowers	3	3	0
Michael Thomas	2	4	0
Khalid Kareem	2	2	0
Tyler Shelvin	1	3	0
Mike Daniels	4	0	0
Noah Spence	2	2	0
Austin Calitro	3	0	0
Trae Waynes	2	1	1

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Case Keenum	17/24	176	2	1	1	-4.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Ernest Johnson	25	123	4.9	1	2.6
Nick Chubb	9	58	6.4	0	-0.9
Case Keenum	5	15	3.0	0	1.0
Demetric Felton	1	6	6.0	0	0.0
Anthony Schwartz	1	3	3.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jarvis Landry	6	8	75	1	33%	3.3
Donovan Peoples-Jones	3	4	38	0	17%	-0.3
Demetric Felton	2	2	18	1	8%	3.7
Anthony Schwartz	1	3	13	0	13%	-1.0
David Njoku	2	2	11	0	8%	0.4
D'Ernest Johnson	1	1	10	0	4%	0.4
Harrison Bryant	1	3	9	0	13%	-2.7
Nick Chubb	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Anthony Walker	3	4	0.0	0
Jacob Phillips	4	2	1.0	2
M.J. Stewart	1	3	0.0	1
A.J. Green	2	1	0.0	1
Jordan Elliott	1	2	0.0	0
Tommy Togiai	3	0	0.0	0
Greg Newsome	2	1	0.0	0
Ifeadi Odenigbo	1	2	0.0	0
Mack Wilson	2	0	0.0	0
Grant Delpit	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -6.5
Closing total: 38
CIN moneyline: +215
CLE moneyline: -265

Browns closed -6.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 38; the game landed 37 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 38°F, wind 22 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: CIN 7 days · CLE 6 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Kevin Stefanski

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 22 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.