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Cincinnati Bengals 16 at Cleveland Browns 21. Final.
Browns -6.5 no coverU 38 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 18
Cleveland Browns 21, Bengals 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 3:40, 1st and 10, on Case Keenum — 9.8 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:40 · 1st and 10
Case Keenum
Bengals
(3:40) 5-C.Keenum sacked at CLE 23 for -11 yards (93-W.Ray). FUMBLES (93-W.Ray) [93-W.Ray], RECOVERED by CIN-41-T.Henderson at CLE 29. 41-T.Henderson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.9 mph wind
Browns closed -6.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Cleveland Browns 21–16. Biggest swing: Q2 3:40, Bengals +9.8% win probability on one snap. Played in 19.9 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
9.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Case KeenumBengalsQ4 14:15(14:15) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.
7.5pts
Chris EvansBengalsQ4 2:31(2:31) 8-B.Allen pass short right to 25-C.Evans for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.9pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Bengals at 5 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Browns won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Bengals at 5 of 14 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Bengals149 of 157 plays carry both curves
(3:40) 5-C.Keenum sacked at CLE 23 for -11 yards (93-W.Ray). FUMBLES (93-W.Ray) [93-W.Ray], RECOVERED by CIN-41-T.Henderson at CLE 29. 41-T.Henderson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −9.8 for BrownsExpected points −8.44 for BrownsThe model had Bengals 5 points higher than the market did.play 68
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 3:40CIN +10% win prob(3:40) 5-C.Keenum sacked at CLE 23 for -11 yards (93-W.Ray). FUMBLES (93-W.Ray) [93-W.Ray], RECOVERED by CIN-41-T.Henderson at CLE 29. 41-T.Henderson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:31CLE +9% win prob(2:31) 8-B.Allen pass short right to 25-C.Evans for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:15CIN +8% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.
1st · 7:47CLE +7% win prob(7:47) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum scrambles left tackle to CLE 33 for 10 yards (29-V.Hargreaves).
4th · 7:20CLE +6% win prob(7:20) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum pass short right to 25-D.Felton for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:03CLE +6% win prob(1:03) (No Huddle) 5-C.Keenum pass deep left to 80-J.Landry for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:33
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jarvis Landry's 26-yard touchdown catch with 1:03 left in the 1st put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:03Jarvis Landry·26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Case Keenumfrom Case KeenumLead never changed again+70–7
3rd5:05Elliott Fry·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+310–14
4th7:20Demetric Felton·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Case Keenumfrom Case Keenum+710–21
4th2:31Chris Evans·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Brandon Allenfrom Brandon Allen · two-point no good+616–21
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryBrowns
Bengals1–8Browns
182Total yards377
3.5Yards per play5.8
29%Success rate52%
36%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays9
11First downs23
4Sacks taken1
0Turnovers2
The read
Browns ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.18Bengals: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.01Browns: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.33Bengals: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.11Browns: −0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Bengals: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.07Browns: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 52 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Browns’s 65 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 2, Browns 5.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's early-down pass rate, 36.5%, is past their previous low of 41.8% in week 4 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 17.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −2.7 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Browns17.6%
right on their number · +2.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 36.5%, 15.2 points below their season mean of 51.8% and 1.8 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Allen pass+12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:31) 8-B.Allen pass short right to 25-C.Evans for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:31 · Bengals · 4th & 1 at CLE 4 · gained 4 · +3.27 EP · +12.2% win probability
147 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 157 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 79 yards from the CLE 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
157 of 157 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
157
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
41%
Yards
558
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.1580%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.2657%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.1632%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.0410%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.6943%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.8833%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.110%
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 34 to the Bengals 39
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Browns 37
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Browns 48
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 35
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 33
Bengals0Browns6
Bengals0Browns7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Bengals 26
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt3 plays
Bengals0Browns13
Bengals0Browns14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 42 to the Bengals 4
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Bengals 30
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Browns 30
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 48 to the Browns 35
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Bengals6Browns14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Browns 16 to the Browns 34
Bengals7Browns14
Intercepted15 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Bengals 11
3rd quarter32 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 33
Bengals10Browns14
Field goal17 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Browns 10
The period ended10 plays, from the Browns 19 to the Bengals 7
4th quarter40 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Turnover on downs2 plays, from the Bengals 7 to the Bengals 2
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 2 to the Bengals 3
Bengals10Browns20
Bengals10Browns21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 46 to the Bengals 10
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Bengals16Browns21
Touchdown17 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Browns 4
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 49 to the Bengals 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
