2021 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 8, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field

Dallas CowboysWinner

Philadelphia Eagles

DAL -6.5 ✓O 46 ✓31°FCowboys closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Dallas Cowboys 51–26 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:26, PHI +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 6:26DAL — PHI DAL ball · 4th & 4DAL 64%

(6:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-A.Cooper ran ob at PHI 20 for 14 yards (34-K.Vincent).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 6:26PHI +8% win prob(6:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-A.Cooper ran ob at PHI 20 for 14 yards (34-K.Vincent).
Q2 · 4:15PHI +6% win prob(4:15) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell right end to DAL 7 for 18 yards (18-D.Kazee, 24-K.Joseph).
Q2 · 11:34PHI +6% win prob(11:34) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb to PHI 43 for 31 yards (54-S.Bradley).
Q1 · 12:12PHI +6% win prob(12:12) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell left guard to DAL 21 for 9 yards (94-R.Gregory).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Eagles
Offensive plays	58	70
Total yards	479 (edge)	316
Yards per play	8.3 (edge)	4.5
Expected points added / play	0.65 (edge)	0.10
Success rate	60% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	50%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.90 (edge)	0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.39 (edge)	0.21
Third downs	8/12 (edge)	10/18
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.65 expected points added per play vs 0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

21/27, 295 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

25.2 expected points added · +14.6% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Gardner MinshewQB

19/33, 186 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

2.4 expected points added · -9.4% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

18 att, 87 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Kenneth GainwellRB

12 att, 78 yds, 1 TD

8.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Cedrick WilsonWR

5/6 for 119 yds, 2 TD

21% of team targets · 11.6 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Quez WatkinsWR

5/7 for 84 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PHI	PHI 25	13	75	5:19	Touchdown
2	DAL	DAL 25	12	80	4:33	Touchdown
3	PHI	PHI 25	5	0	1:34	Punt
4	DAL	DAL 44	5	36	1:57	Turnover on downs
5	PHI	PHI 36	11	30	4:13	Turnover on downs
6	DAL	DAL 26	9	74	4:17	Touchdown
7	PHI	PHI 25	12	85	4:27	Touchdown
8	DAL	DAL 25	10	75	1:55	Touchdown
9	PHI	PHI 27	6	0	1:21	Punt
10	DAL	PHI 43	5	43	0:19	Touchdown
11	PHI	PHI 25	2	0	0:05	End of half
12	DAL	DAL 12	5	9	2:21	Punt
13	PHI	PHI 25	15	53	6:41	Turnover on downs
14	DAL	DAL 16	16	84	6:25	Touchdown
15	PHI	PHI 30	5	-2	1:49	Punt
16	DAL	DAL 48	6	52	2:28	Touchdown
17	PHI	PHI 25	2	0	0:08	Interception
18	DAL	PHI 26	4	26	1:32	Touchdown
19	PHI	PHI 25	16	75	6:46	Touchdown
20	DAL	DAL 25	4	0	1:50	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 85 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	21/27	295	5	0	1	25.2
Cooper Rush	1/1	10	0	0	0	0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	18	87	4.8	0	1.7
Corey Clement	7	58	8.3	0	4.7
Jaquan Hardy	3	26	8.7	1	2.8
Ito Smith	1	4	4.0	1	2.2
Cooper Rush	3	-4	-1.3	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cedrick Wilson	5	6	119	2	21%	11.6
Amari Cooper	5	7	79	0	25%	7.5
CeeDee Lamb	2	2	45	0	7%	3.4
Corey Clement	4	4	22	1	14%	0.7
Dalton Schultz	3	3	21	2	11%	5.5
Jeremy Sprinkle	1	1	10	0	4%	0.7
Blake Jarwin	1	2	6	0	7%	-0.4
Ezekiel Elliott	1	3	3	0	11%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kelvin Joseph	7	2	0.0	0	0
Damontae Kazee	4	2	0.0	0	0
Leighton Vander Esch	2	3	0.0	1	1
Keanu Neal	4	1	0.0	0	0
Neville Gallimore	2	2	0.0	0	0
Nahshon Wright	2	2	0.0	0	0
Dorance Armstrong	0	3	0.5	0	0
Donovan Wilson	1	2	0.0	0	0
Osa Odighizuwa	1	2	0.0	0	0
Demarcus Lawrence	2	1	1.0	0	1

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	19/33	186	2	1	3	2.4
Greg Ward	1/1	2	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenneth Gainwell	12	78	6.5	1	8.2
Jason Huntley	13	51	3.9	0	-1.7
Gardner Minshew	5	10	2.0	0	-0.6
Jalen Reagor	3	10	3.3	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Quez Watkins	5	7	84	1	21%	10.2
DeVonta Smith	3	4	41	0	12%	2.7
Tyree Jackson	3	5	22	1	15%	1.5
Jalen Reagor	2	3	19	0	9%	-0.3
Richard Rodgers	2	2	11	0	6%	0.1
Kenneth Gainwell	4	7	9	0	21%	0.9
Greg Ward	1	2	2	0	6%	-1.4
Jason Huntley	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside	0	3	0	0	9%	-6.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
K'Von Wallace	6	0	0.0	0
Josiah Scott	4	1	1.0	0
Andre Chachere	5	0	0.0	0
Shaun Bradley	3	1	0.0	0
Tarron Jackson	1	3	0.0	0
Patrick Johnson	1	3	0.0	0
Marvin Wilson	1	2	0.0	0
Christian Elliss	2	1	0.0	0
Milton Williams	2	1	0.0	1
Hassan Ridgeway	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -6.5
Closing total: 46
DAL moneyline: -300
PHI moneyline: +235

Cowboys closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Total closed 46; the game landed 77 — over by 31.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 31°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: DAL 7 days · PHI 7 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Nick Sirianni

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.