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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:23 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Cowboys170 of 176 plays carry both curves
(6:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-A.Cooper ran ob at PHI 20 for 14 yards (34-K.Vincent).
Swing −8.5 for EaglesExpected points −3.65 for EaglesThe model had Eagles 35 points higher than the market did.play 24
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:26PHI +8% win prob(6:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-A.Cooper ran ob at PHI 20 for 14 yards (34-K.Vincent).
2nd · 4:15PHI +6% win prob(4:15) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell right end to DAL 7 for 18 yards (18-D.Kazee, 24-K.Joseph).
2nd · 11:34PHI +6% win prob(11:34) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb to PHI 43 for 31 yards (54-S.Bradley).
1st · 12:12PHI +6% win prob(12:12) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell left guard to DAL 21 for 9 yards (94-R.Gregory).
2nd · 8:15PHI +6% win prob(8:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 1-C.Wilson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:55PHI +6% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 80-T.Jackson to DAL 28 for 13 yards (42-K.Neal). PENALTY on DAL-6-D.Wilson, Roughing the Passer, 14 yards, enforced at DAL 28.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dalton Schultz's 2-yard touchdown catch with 1:48 left in the 2nd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Cowboys ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.90 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.65Cowboys: +0.65 expected points added per play
+0.10Eagles: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.90Cowboys: +0.90 expected points added per play
+0.02Eagles: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.39Cowboys: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.21Eagles: +0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 58 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Eagles’s 70 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 7, Eagles 4.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.65 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 20 team-games charted in week 18 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 57.1% in week 17.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.9 points.
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 72.1% in week 17 against 45.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Eagles6.9%
inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 63.1 points above their season mean of 36.9% and 2.4 times their own 25.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+10% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(8:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 1-C.Wilson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 8:15 · Cowboys · 3rd & 5 at PHI 24 · gained 24 · +3.48 EP · +9.7% win probability
168 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 84 yards from the DAL 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.23
Success rate
47%
Yards
790
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.0663%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.7161%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0733%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.3822%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.4843%
Eagles0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Cowboys0Eagles6
Cowboys0Eagles7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 3
Cowboys6Eagles7
Cowboys7Eagles7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 14
Punt5 plays
Cowboys10Eagles7
Field goal6 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Eagles 29
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 36 to the Cowboys 48
2nd quarter57 plays
Cowboys10Eagles10
Field goal6 plays, from the Cowboys 41 to the Cowboys 13
Cowboys16Eagles10
Cowboys17Eagles10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 26 to the Eagles 24
Cowboys17Eagles16
Cowboys17Eagles17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 7
Cowboys23Eagles17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 2
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Eagles 45
Cowboys29Eagles17
Cowboys30Eagles17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Eagles 9
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Cowboys 21
Cowboys30Eagles20
Field goal15 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 22
The period ended14 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Eagles 16
4th quarter41 plays
Cowboys36Eagles20
Cowboys37Eagles20
Touchdown3 plays, from the Eagles 11 to the Eagles 8
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 37
Cowboys43Eagles20
Cowboys44Eagles20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 48 to the Eagles 4
Intercepted2 plays
Cowboys50Eagles20
Cowboys51Eagles20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Eagles 20
Cowboys51Eagles26
Touchdown16 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 36
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
