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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · Ford Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 18
It turned at Q4 5:01, 1st and 10, on Josiah Deguara — 31.2 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Detroit Lions 37–30. Biggest swing: Q4 5:01, Packers +31.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:01 · 1st and 10
Josiah Deguara
Packers
(5:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 81-J.Deguara for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
31.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against Packers at 3 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Packers at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 14 on third down, against Lions at 4 of 11 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Lions won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Packers at 5 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 14.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
(5:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 81-J.Deguara for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
D'Andre Swift's 14-yard rushing touchdown with 2:00 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Allen Lazard29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron Rodgers · kick no good, wide right+613–1412 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryLions
Lions ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 67 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Lions’s 58 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Lions 7.
Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
GB's pass rate over expected turned over: +12.6 pts in week 17 against +0.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Packers0.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 65 snaps
Lions-4.2 ptsright on their number · +1.3 vs their -5.5 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 83%
Tendencies room →Packers53.1%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 55.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 49 early downs
Lions54.5%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22% to 133%
Fourth Down room →Packers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 51.2%.
Lions66.7%right on their number · +8.5 vs their 58.1%, and they swing ±29.0 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 27%
Tendencies room →Packers12.1%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Lions14.6%inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was GB's pass rate over expected, 0.3 pts against a season mean of 3.7 pts — and GB swings 4.9 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
21/30, 238 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
10.7 expected points added · +7.4% completion over expected
Passing · GB
14/18, 138 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
3.7 expected points added · +6.6% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
8/10 for 109 yds, 1 TD
34% of team targets · 11.1 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kalif Raymond banked 12.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 26.1 | +6.2 | 95% | 94% | 34% | 33% | 1 car, 12 yd · 8/10, 109 yd, 1 TD |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 24.5 | +10.2 | 31% | 39% | 17% | 24% | 5/6, 75 yd, 2 TD |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 21.4 | +12.7 | 71% | 76% | 17% | 23% | 1 car, 13 yd · 4/5, 101 yd, 1 TD |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 17.5 | +3.5 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 21/30, 238 yd, 2 TD |
| Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver | 15.6 | +9.9 | 43% | 51% | 11% | 0% | 3/4, 66 yd, 1 TD |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Committee Back | 14.6 | +3.5 | 54% | 73% | 17% | 0% | 7 car, 30 yd, 1 TD · 4/5, 16 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 14.2 | +2.5 | 46% | — | 0% | — | 14/18, 138 yd, 2 TD · 1 car, 7 yd |
| Patrick TaylorRB · Committee Back | 13.6 | −1.2 | 46% | 46% | 6% | 0% | 11 car, 53 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 3 yd |
| Brock WrightTE · Rotational Receiver | 13.1 | +9.8 | 71% | 61% | 7% | 9% | 2/2, 51 yd, 1 TD |
| Davante AdamsWR · Featured Receiver | 11.5 | +0.4 | 32% | 44% | 20% | 21% | 6/7, 55 yd |
| Tom KennedyWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +6.8 | 27% | 39% | 7% | 6% | 1/1, 75 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 16 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB · Committee Back | 7.7 | −0.6 | 54% | 51% | 3% | 0% | 14 car, 63 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 7.3 | −1.6 | 54% | — | 0% | — | 10/17, 134 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Jamaal WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 6.2 | −1.2 | 41% | 21% | 3% | 1% | 13 car, 43 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −3.5 | 75% | 66% | 14% | 32% | 2/5, 22 yd |
| Dominique DafneyTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +2.0 | 22% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 26 yd |
| Juwann WinfreeWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −1.7 | 65% | 54% | 9% | 4% | 3/3, 16 yd |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −5.5 | 83% | 85% | 10% | 14% | 1/3, 11 yd |
| Amari RodgersWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −4.3 | 46% | 41% | 9% | 10% | 1/3, 5 yd |
| Craig ReynoldsRB | 0.2 | −4.3 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Godwin IgwebuikeRB | 0.0 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tyler DavisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.2 | 35% | 32% | 3% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.5 | 29% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 22% | 29% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tim BoyleQB | -0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 81-J.Deguara for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 5:01 · Packers · 1st & 10 at GB 38 · gained 62 · +4.98 EP · +28.3% win probability
156 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
12 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 93 yards from the DET 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers6
Lions0Packers7Lions0Packers7Lions6Packers7Lions7Packers7Lions13Packers7Lions14Packers13Lions14Packers13Lions17Packers13Lions23Packers13Lions24Packers16Lions24Packers22Lions24Packers22Lions27Packers28Lions27Packers30Lions27Packers30Lions33Packers30Lions34Packers30Lions37Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Lions, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 14/18 | 138 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +3.7 |
| Jordan Love | 10/17 | 134 | 1 | 2 | 1 | −4.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dillon | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Patrick Taylor | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 1 | +2.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 5 | 6 | 75 | 2 | 17% | +9.0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 3 | 4 | 66 | 1 | 11% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krys Barnes | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Garvin | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 21/30 | 238 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +10.7 |
| Tom Kennedy | 1/1 | 75 | 1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_18_GB_DET
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45; the game landed 67 — over by 22.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| −0.0 |
| Davante Adams | 6 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 20% | +3.6 |
| Dominique Dafney | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 3% | +1.7 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 14% | −1.0 |
| Juwann Winfree | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 9% | −0.8 |
| Amari Rodgers | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9% | −7.4 |
| A.J. Dillon | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Patrick Taylor | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6% | +1.0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Tyler Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.5 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Adrian Amos | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oren Burks | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Lowry | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin King | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry Black | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tipa Galeai | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +5.1 |
| Jack Fox | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 1 | −0.3 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Craig Reynolds | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8 | 10 | 109 | 1 | 34% | +11.1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 4 | 5 | 101 | 1 | 17% | +4.8 |
| Brock Wright | 2 | 2 | 51 | 1 | 7% | +4.7 |
| Tom Kennedy | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 7% | +0.4 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 17% | −2.0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 10% | +1.2 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −3.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tracy Walker III | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Will Harris | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reeves-Maybin | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dean Marlowe | 0 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derrick Barnes | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Okwara | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Parker | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rashod Berry | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alim McNeill | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
