2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · Ford Field

Green Bay Packers

Detroit LionsWinner

GB -4 upsetO 45 ✓DomePackers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Detroit Lions 37–30. Biggest swing: Q4 5:01, DET +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 5:01GB — DET GB ball · 1st & 10DET 65%

(5:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 81-J.Deguara for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 5:01DET +31% win prob(5:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 81-J.Deguara for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:23GB +26% win prob(1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle intended for 8-Am.Rodgers INTERCEPTED by 38-C.Moore at GB 36. 38-C.Moore pushed ob at GB 15 for 21 yards (27-P.Taylor).
Q4 · 2:00DET +18% win prob(2:00) 32-D.Swift left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 1:41DET +16% win prob(1:41) 85-T.Kennedy pass deep right to 11-K.Raymond for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Lions
Offensive plays	67	58
Total yards	381	405 (edge)
Yards per play	5.7	7.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.02	0.18 (edge)
Success rate	54% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	61%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.39 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	-0.09
Third downs	8/14 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

21/30, 238 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.7 expected points added · +7.4% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

14/18, 138 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.7 expected points added · +6.6% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

A.J. DillonRB

14 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Patrick TaylorRB

11 att, 53 yds, 1 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

8/10 for 109 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 11.1 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Kalif RaymondWR

4/5 for 101 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 26	15	74	7:18	Touchdown
2	DET	DET 25	8	10	3:13	Turnover on downs
3	GB	DET 35	4	-7	1:32	Punt
4	DET	DET 7	4	93	1:28	Touchdown
5	GB	GB 25	9	33	3:45	Turnover on downs
6	DET	DET 43	11	57	5:44	Touchdown
7	GB	GB 25	9	75	4:26	Touchdown
8	DET	DET 25	11	59	2:32	Turnover on downs
9	GB	GB 25	2	0	0:02	End of half
10	DET	DET 25	5	0	0:29	Punt
11	GB	GB 31	3	1	1:32	Fumble
12	DET	GB 36	2	36	0:09	Touchdown
13	GB	GB 25	12	53	5:12	Turnover on downs
14	DET	DET 25	5	2	1:32	Punt
15	GB	GB 43	13	57	6:54	Touchdown
16	DET	DET 25	15	57	7:33	Turnover on downs
17	GB	GB 25	6	77	1:50	Touchdown
18	DET	DET 25	8	75	2:55	Touchdown
19	GB	GB 25	3	0	0:41	Interception
20	DET	GB 15	4	16	0:25	Turnover on downs
21	GB	GB 22	4	18	0:27	Interception
22	DET	DET 44	1	0	0:21	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 93 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	14/18	138	2	0	3	3.7
Jordan Love	10/17	134	1	2	1	-4.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
A.J. Dillon	14	63	4.5	0	0.8
Patrick Taylor	11	53	4.8	1	2.3
Aaron Rodgers	1	7	7.0	0	0.4
Jordan Love	1	-1	-1.0	0	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Lazard	5	6	75	2	17%	9.0
Josiah Deguara	3	4	66	1	11%	-0.0
Davante Adams	6	7	55	0	20%	3.6
Dominique Dafney	1	1	26	0	3%	1.7
Equanimeous St. Brown	2	5	22	0	14%	-1.0
Juwann Winfree	3	3	16	0	9%	-0.8
Amari Rodgers	1	3	5	0	9%	-7.4
A.J. Dillon	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1
Patrick Taylor	2	2	3	0	6%	1.0
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Tyler Davis	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.5
Marcedes Lewis	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Krys Barnes	4	2	0.0
Jonathan Garvin	4	2	0.0
Darnell Savage	4	1	0.0
Adrian Amos	4	1	0.0
Oren Burks	2	2	0.0
Dean Lowry	2	2	1.0
Rashan Gary	2	1	0.0
Kevin King	3	0	0.0
Henry Black	1	2	0.0
Tipa Galeai	1	1	0.0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	21/30	238	2	1	10.7
Tom Kennedy	1/1	75	1	0	5.1
Jack Fox	0/1	0	0	0	-3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jamaal Williams	13	43	3.3	0	-0.1
D'Andre Swift	7	30	4.3	1	-0.3
Kalif Raymond	1	13	13.0	0	0.9
Amon-Ra St. Brown	1	12	12.0	0	0.1
Craig Reynolds	3	2	0.7	0	-2.8
Tim Boyle	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown	8	10	109	1	34%	11.1
Kalif Raymond	4	5	101	1	17%	4.8
Brock Wright	2	2	51	1	7%	4.7
Tom Kennedy	2	2	16	0	7%	0.4
D'Andre Swift	4	5	16	0	17%	-2.0
Josh Reynolds	1	3	11	0	10%	1.2
Jamaal Williams	1	1	9	0	3%	0.7
Godwin Igwebuike	0	1	0	0	3%	-3.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tracy Walker III	7	4	0.0	1	1
Will Harris	7	1	0.0	0	0
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	3	3	0.0	0	0
Ifeatu Melifonwu	4	1	0.0	0	1
Dean Marlowe	0	5	0.0	0	1
Derrick Barnes	4	1	1.0	0	0
Julian Okwara	3	0	2.0	0	0
A.J. Parker	3	0	0.0	0	1
Rashod Berry	1	1	0.0	0	0
Alim McNeill	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -4
Closing total: 45
GB moneyline: -195
DET moneyline: +165

Packers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 67 — over by 22.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: GB 7 days · DET 7 days
Coaches: Matt LaFleur vs Dan Campbell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.