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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:25 AM ET · 16 to play
Detroit Lions 37, Packers 30 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 5:01, 1st and 10, on Josiah Deguara — 31.2 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:01 · 1st and 10
Josiah Deguara
Packers
(5:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 81-J.Deguara for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Packers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Detroit Lions 37–30. Biggest swing: Q4 5:01, Packers +31.2% win probability on one snap.
31.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D'Andre SwiftLionsQ4 2:00(2:00) 32-D.Swift left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.8pts
C.J. MooreLionsQ4 1:23(1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle intended for 8-Am.Rodgers INTERCEPTED by 38-C.Moore at GB 36. 38-C.Moore pushed ob at GB 15 for 21 yards (27-P.Taylor).
26.0pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against Packers at 3 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Packers at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 14 on third down, against Lions at 4 of 11 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Lions won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Packers at 5 chunk plays.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Packers158 of 172 plays carry both curves
(5:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 81-J.Deguara for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −31.2 for LionsExpected points −4.98 for LionsThe model had Lions 9 points higher than the market did.play 146
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:01DET +31% win prob(5:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 81-J.Deguara for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:23GB +26% win prob(1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle intended for 8-Am.Rodgers INTERCEPTED by 38-C.Moore at GB 36. 38-C.Moore pushed ob at GB 15 for 21 yards (27-P.Taylor).
4th · 2:00DET +18% win prob(2:00) 32-D.Swift left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:41DET +16% win prob(1:41) 85-T.Kennedy pass deep right to 11-K.Raymond for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:31DET +15% win prob(2:31) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 89-B.Wright to GB 14 for 15 yards (26-D.Savage). DET-14-A.St. Brown was injured during the play.
4th · 4:23DET +14% win prob(4:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to GB 34 for 28 yards (26-D.Savage).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D'Andre Swift's 14-yard rushing touchdown with 2:00 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
2nd0:05Riley Patterson·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+313–17
3rd12:59Brock Wright·36-yd TD catch36-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+713–24
3rd7:41Mason Crosby·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap S.Wirtel+316–24
4th14:16Patrick Taylor·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+622–24
4th6:43Riley Patterson·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+322–27
4th5:01Josiah Deguara·62-yd TD catch62-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love · two-point good+830–27
4th2:00D'Andre Swift·14-yd TD run14-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+730–34
4th0:51Riley Patterson·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+330–37
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryLions
Packers3–5Lions
381Total yards405
5.7Yards per play7.0
54%Success rate48%
57%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays8
23First downs19
4Sacks taken1
3Turnovers0
The read
Lions ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Packers: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.18Lions: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Packers: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.39Lions: +0.39 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.16Packers: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.09Lions: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 67 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Lions’s 58 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Lions 7.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's pass rate over expected turned over: +12.6 pts in week 17 against +0.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Lions14.6%
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was GB's pass rate over expected, 0.3 pts against a season mean of 3.7 pts — and GB swings 4.9 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
62Lucas PatrickG · Every snap100%68 snaps
76Jon RunyanG · Every snap100%68 snaps
79Dennis KellyT · Every snap100%68 snaps
19Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Heavy rotation75%51 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Love pass+28% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 81-J.Deguara for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 5:01 · Packers · 1st & 10 at GB 38 · gained 62 · +4.98 EP · +28.3% win probability
156 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 93 yards from the DET 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
45%
Yards
784
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.0965%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.2556%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.1744%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.2122%
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR8+0.4588%
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Packers6Lions0
Packers7Lions0
Touchdown16 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Lions 1
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 43
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Lions 34
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Packers7Lions6
Packers7Lions7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Lions 7 to the Lions 25
The period ended5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 42
2nd quarter44 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Packers 42 to the Lions 43
Packers7Lions13
Packers7Lions14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 43 to the Packers 1
Packers13Lions14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Lions 29
Packers13Lions17
Field goal16 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 16
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Packers 38
Packers13Lions23
Packers13Lions24
Touchdown2 plays
Packers16Lions24
Field goal13 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Lions 17
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 27
The period ended12 plays, from the Packers 43 to the Lions 6
4th quarter50 plays
Packers22Lions24
Touchdown3 plays, from the Lions 3 to the Lions 1
Packers22Lions27
Field goal16 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 18
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Packers28Lions27
Packers30Lions27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Packers30Lions33
Packers30Lions34
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
Packers30Lions37
Field goal7 plays, from the Packers 15 to the Packers 9
Intercepted5 plays, from the Packers 22 to the Packers 40
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -4
Closing total
45
Packers moneyline
-195
Lions moneyline
+165
Packers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45; the game landed 67 — over by 22.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Packers 7 days · Lions 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Dan Campbell
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 13:04
GB +11% win prob
(13:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 88-J.Winfree to GB 32 for 2 yards (41-A.Parker). FUMBLES (41-A.Parker), RECOVERED by DET-26-I.Melifonwu at GB 36. 26-I.Melifonwu to GB 36 for no gain (8-Am.Rodgers).
2nd · 7:03DET +10% win prob(7:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
