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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:23 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 18
It turned at Q3 12:40, 1st and 10, on Carson Wentz — 21.1 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 12:40 · 1st and 10
Carson Wentz
Jaguars
(12:40) 2-C.Wentz sacked at IND 29 for -9 yards (54-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (54-D.Wilson) [54-D.Wilson], RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Hamilton at IND 23. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Jacksonville Jaguars 26–11. Biggest swing: Q3 12:40, Jaguars +21.1% win probability on one snap.
21.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.29 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — no giveaways, against Colts at 2 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Colts at 4 of 12 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 24.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 49 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(12:40) 2-C.Wentz sacked at IND 29 for -9 yards (54-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (54-D.Wilson) [54-D.Wilson], RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Hamilton at IND 23. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The r
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Laquon Treadwell's 2-yard touchdown catch with 7:55 left in the 1st put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Laquon Treadwell2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor LawrenceLead never changed again+70–7
Michael Pittman12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Carson Wentz · two-point good+811–268 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Coltscategory by categoryJaguars
Jaguars ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 54 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 61 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Colts 3, Jaguars 5.
Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.29.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 75.0% in week 8 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 18.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.1 points.
JAX's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 17 against 25.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Colts-1.0 ptsright on their number · +3.6 vs their -4.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 53 snaps
Jaguars1.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.1 vs their -2.0 pts, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 89%
Tendencies room →Colts72.2%leaned — passed early · +21.2 vs their 51.0%, and they swing ±14.9 week to week (+1.42× that swing) · 36 early downs
Jaguars54.3%inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 59.6%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 122%
Fourth Down room →Colts100.0%leaned — went for it · +48.3 vs their 51.7%, and they swing ±27.1 week to week (+1.78× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Jaguars25.0%right on their number · −10.5 vs their 35.5%, and they swing ±28.9 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →Colts5.6%inside their normal wobble · −7.3 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Jaguars25.6%leaned — got home · +12.1 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.40× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
IND's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 48.3 points above their season mean of 51.7% and 1.8 times their own 27.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
23/32, 223 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
8.1 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected
Passing · IND
17/29, 185 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-10.9 expected points added · -4.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Michael Pittman banked 9.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin JonesWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.8 | +3.8 | 90% | 92% | 25% | 44% | 7/8, 88 yd, 1 TD |
| Michael PittmanWR · Featured Receiver | 20.4 | +9.2 | 88% | 87% | 24% | 21% | 6/7, 64 yd, 1 TD |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 18.6 | −5.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/32, 223 yd, 2 TD · 10 car, 17 yd |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.5 | −5.3 | 91% | 85% | 14% | 1% | 15 car, 77 yd · 3/4, 18 yd |
| Laquon TreadwellWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.4 | −0.5 | 91% | 89% | 16% | 30% | 3/5, 24 yd, 1 TD |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Featured Receiver | 11.2 | −1.7 | 60% | 67% | 22% | 21% | 5/7, 62 yd |
| Carson WentzQB · Starter QB | 11.1 | −2.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/29, 185 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 17 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB · Committee Back | 8.5 | −6.5 | 68% | 75% | 19% | 7% | 11 car, 30 yd · 3/6, 25 yd |
| Ryquell ArmsteadRB | 8.2 | 0.0 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 0% | 9 car, 52 yd · 2/2, 10 yd |
| T.Y. HiltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | −2.2 | 70% | 72% | 17% | 23% | 2/5, 39 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −0.6 | 39% | 36% | 10% | 12% | 2/3, 27 yd |
| Jacob HollisterTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −1.0 | 60% | 61% | 9% | 4% | 3/3, 14 yd |
| Nyheim Miller-HinesRB · Receiving Back | 3.9 | −1.3 | 16% | 18% | 10% | 5% | 2/3, 19 yd |
| Jack DoyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −0.8 | 56% | 49% | 7% | 0% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.4 | 86% | 79% | 7% | 4% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Mekhi SargentRB | 0.2 | −2.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Parris CampbellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.7 | 14% | 15% | 10% | 34% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Nathan CottrellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jaydon MickensWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:40) 2-C.Wentz sacked at IND 29 for -9 yards (54-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (54-D.Wilson) [54-D.Wilson], RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Hamilton at IND 23. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 12:40 · Colts · 1st & 10 at IND 38 · lost 15 · -6.50 EP · −10.1% win probability
148 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 75 yards from the JAX 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Colts0
Jaguars6Colts0Jaguars7Colts3Jaguars7Colts3Jaguars10Colts3Jaguars13Colts3Jaguars16Colts3Jaguars22Colts3Jaguars23Colts3Jaguars26Colts9Jaguars26Colts11Jaguars26Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Colts at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 17/29 | 185 | 1 | 1 | 6 | −10.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 15 | 77 | 5.1 | 0 | −4.6 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 7 | 64 | 1 | 24% | +9.0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 17% | +1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Moore | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquille Leonard | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khari Willis | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Rodgers |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 23/32 | 223 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +8.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryquell Armstead |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_18_IND_JAX
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -14 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 37 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 10% | −2.5 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 10% | +1.1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 14% | +0.5 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7% | −1.2 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −0.7 |
| Parris Campbell | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −5.3 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kwity Paye | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Al-Quadin Muhammad | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaire Franklin | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Chesley | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 |
| 52 |
| 5.8 |
| 0 |
| +1.9 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 | −4.7 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Mekhi Sargent | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 7 | 8 | 88 | 1 | 25% | +8.3 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 | 22% | +2.3 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 19% | −1.5 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 3 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 16% | +1.9 |
| Jacob Hollister | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 9% | −0.5 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | −0.1 |
| Mekhi Sargent | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Campbell | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Damien Wilson | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Myles Jack | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquill Griffin | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andre Cisco | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Gotsis | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Herndon | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcom Brown | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
