2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

IND -14 upsetU 43 ✓19 mph windColts closed -14 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Jacksonville Jaguars 26–11. Biggest swing: Q3 12:40, IND +21% win probability on one snap. Played in 19 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 12:40IND — JAX IND ball · 1st & 10JAX 51%

(12:40) 2-C.Wentz sacked at IND 29 for -9 yards (54-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (54-D.Wilson) [54-D.Wilson], RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Hamilton at IND 23. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The r

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 12:40IND +21% win prob(12:40) 2-C.Wentz sacked at IND 29 for -9 yards (54-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (54-D.Wilson) [54-D.Wilson], RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Hamilton at IND 23. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 · 6:02IND +11% win prob(6:02) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to JAX 41 for 1 yard (96-A.Gotsis).
Q3 · 6:59IND +9% win prob(6:59) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass deep left intended for 81-M.Alie-Cox INTERCEPTED by 54-D.Wilson at IND 46. 54-D.Wilson to IND 45 for 1 yard (81-M.Alie-Cox).
Q2 · 3:06IND +9% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz sacked at IND 17 for -8 yards (41-J.Allen).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Jaguars
Offensive plays	54	61
Total yards	235	322 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.29	0.09 (edge)
Success rate	41%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	72%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.29	0.25 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.31	-0.13 (edge)
Third downs	4/12	7/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	13	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.29.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

23/32, 223 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.1 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Carson WentzQB

17/29, 185 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-10.9 expected points added · -4.8% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

15 att, 77 yds, 0 TD

-4.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Ryquell ArmsteadRB

9 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Marvin JonesWR

7/8 for 88 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

6/7 for 64 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	14	80	7:12	Touchdown
2	IND	IND 39	6	20	1:51	Turnover on downs
3	JAX	JAX 41	6	24	4:01	Punt
4	IND	IND 20	12	57	7:48	Turnover on downs
5	JAX	JAX 25	12	71	6:02	Turnover on downs
6	IND	IND 25	5	-2	1:31	Punt
7	JAX	JAX 27	11	64	1:35	Turnover on downs
8	IND	IND 20	5	3	2:27	Fumble
9	JAX	IND 23	4	2	1:01	Turnover on downs
10	IND	IND 25	8	32	3:03	Punt
11	JAX	JAX 20	4	1	1:30	Punt
12	IND	IND 29	1	0	0:07	Interception
13	JAX	IND 45	7	45	3:44	Touchdown
14	IND	IND 45	11	40	5:15	Turnover on downs
15	JAX	JAX 1	4	6	2:22	Punt
16	IND	IND 43	4	-2	0:50	Turnover on downs
17	JAX	IND 41	6	18	1:26	Turnover on downs
18	IND	IND 25	11	87	3:49	Touchdown
19	JAX	IND 49	8	11	4:26	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 87 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	17/29	185	1	1	6	-10.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	15	77	5.1	0	-4.6
Carson Wentz	3	17	5.7	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	6	7	64	1	24%	9.0
T.Y. Hilton	2	5	39	0	17%	1.4
Mo Alie-Cox	2	3	27	0	10%	-2.5
Nyheim Miller-Hines	2	3	19	0	10%	1.1
Jonathan Taylor	3	4	18	0	14%	0.5
Jack Doyle	1	2	11	0	7%	-1.2
Zach Pascal	1	2	7	0	7%	-0.7
Parris Campbell	0	3	0	0	10%	-5.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Kenny Moore	7	2	0.0
Shaquille Leonard	1	6	0.0
Khari Willis	4	3	0.0
Isaiah Rodgers	3	2	0.0
Kwity Paye	1	4	0.0
Al-Quadin Muhammad	2	2	1.0
Bobby Okereke	1	3	0.0
Zaire Franklin	1	2	0.0
Anthony Chesley	3	0	0.0
DeForest Buckner	3	0	0.0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	23/32	223	2	0	1	8.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ryquell Armstead	9	52	5.8	1.9
Dare Ogunbowale	11	30	2.7	-4.7
Trevor Lawrence	10	17	1.7	-0.5
Mekhi Sargent	1	2	2.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Jones	7	8	88	1	25%	8.3
Laviska Shenault Jr.	5	7	62	0	22%	2.3
Dare Ogunbowale	3	6	25	0	19%	-1.5
Laquon Treadwell	3	5	24	1	16%	1.9
Jacob Hollister	3	3	14	0	9%	-0.5
Ryquell Armstead	2	2	10	0	6%	-0.1
Mekhi Sargent	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tyson Campbell	5	2	0.0	0	1
Damien Wilson	2	3	1.0	1	1
Myles Jack	2	3	0.0	0	0
Shaquill Griffin	1	3	0.0	0	1
Andre Cisco	3	1	0.0	0	0
Adam Gotsis	3	0	1.0	0	0
Tre Herndon	2	1	0.0	0	0
Josh Hines-Allen	2	1	2.0	0	0
Daniel Thomas	3	0	0.0	0	0
Malcom Brown	1	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -14
Closing total: 43
IND moneyline: -1000
JAX moneyline: +650

Colts closed -14 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 37 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 76°F, wind 19 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: IND 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Darrell Bevell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 19 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.