For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 8, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 18
It turned at Q4 7:57, 2nd and 2, on Melvin Gordon — 55.7 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:57 · 2nd and 2
Melvin Gordon
Chiefs
(7:57) 25-M.Gordon right guard to KC 13 for -4 yards (24-M.Ingram). FUMBLES (24-M.Ingram), touched at KC 13, RECOVERED by KC-54-N.Bolton at KC 14. 54-N.Bolton for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Kansas City Chiefs 28–24. Biggest swing: Q4 7:57, Chiefs +55.7% win probability on one snap.
55.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Broncos at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Broncos at +0.04 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 1 giveaway.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 27.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(7:57) 25-M.Gordon right guard to KC 13 for -4 yards (24-M.Ingram). FUMBLES (24-M.Ingram), touched at KC 13, RECOVERED by KC-54-N.Bolton at KC 14. 54-N.Bolton for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Nick Bolton's 86-yard touchdown with 7:57 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Harrison Butker34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+310–14Harrison Butker51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+320–21
Nick Bolton86-yd defence TD86-yard touchdownthe defence scored it · two-point goodLead never changed again+828–219 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryBroncos
Chiefs ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 72 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Broncos’s 54 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Broncos 5.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's sack or hit rate turned over: 22.2% in week 17 against 6.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs14.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 9.2 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 71 snaps
Broncos-7.4 ptsright on their number · −2.8 vs their -4.6 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 92%
Tendencies room →Chiefs66.7%right on their number · +3.9 vs their 62.8%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 57 early downs
Broncos45.2%inside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their 52.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 97%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.3%.
Broncos—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 27%
Tendencies room →Chiefs6.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.0 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Broncos10.0%inside their normal wobble · −2.9 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
KC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 6.7%, 6.0 points below their season mean of 12.7% and 1.1 times their own 5.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Denver Broncos
47 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
27/44, 270 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
12.1 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
12/24, 162 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
2.8 expected points added · -8.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Melvin Gordon banked 8.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 26.2 | −1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/44, 270 yd, 2 TD · 9 car, 54 yd |
| Drew LockQB · Starter QB | 22.0 | +7.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 12/24, 162 yd · 4 car, 35 yd, 2 TD |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.3 | +0.1 | 83% | 78% | 26% | 17% | 1 car, 10 yd · 8/11, 103 yd |
| Melvin GordonRB · Committee Back | 16.6 | +8.2 | 48% | 43% | 8% | 0% | 12 car, 110 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 6 yd |
| Tim PatrickWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.5 | −1.5 | 78% | 73% | 42% | 44% | 6/10, 95 yd |
| Jerick McKinnonRB | 14.0 | +6.8 | 29% | 30% | 7% | 0% | 5 car, 24 yd · 3/3, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis KelceTE · Rotational Receiver | 13.4 | +3.1 | 77% | 80% | 12% | 11% | 4/5, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| Byron PringleWR · Featured Receiver | 10.6 | −3.2 | 71% | 74% | 19% | 24% | 5/8, 56 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 8.4 | −0.8 | 56% | 50% | 8% | 0% | 12 car, 46 yd · 2/2, 18 yd |
| Darrel WilliamsRB | 7.7 | −3.5 | 40% | 42% | 10% | 4% | 7 car, 17 yd · 3/4, 30 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 5.0 | −3.6 | 67% | 60% | 21% | 45% | 2/5, 30 yd |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −5.5 | 53% | 50% | 14% | 22% | 3/6, 19 yd |
| Derrick GoreRB | 3.0 | −2.3 | 31% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 7 car, 30 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −1.7 | 76% | 77% | 13% | 7% | 1/1, 16 yd · 1/3, 13 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −2.1 | 96% | 83% | 8% | 10% | 1/2, 16 yd |
| Tyreek HillWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −5.5 | 18% | 22% | 7% | 11% | 1/3, 2 yd |
| Albert OkwuegbunamTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 30% | 20% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Josh GordonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 27% | 28% | 2% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:57) 25-M.Gordon right guard to KC 13 for -4 yards (24-M.Ingram). FUMBLES (24-M.Ingram), touched at KC 13, RECOVERED by KC-54-N.Bolton at KC 14. 54-N.Bolton for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 7:57 · Broncos · 2nd & 2 at KC 9 · lost 4 · -12.14 EP · −61.1% win probability
161 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 91 yards from the KC 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chiefs6
Broncos0Chiefs7Broncos0Chiefs7Broncos6Chiefs7Broncos7Chiefs7Broncos13Chiefs7Broncos14Chiefs10Broncos14Chiefs16Broncos14Chiefs17Broncos14Chiefs17Broncos20Chiefs17Broncos21Chiefs20Broncos21Chiefs26Broncos21Chiefs28Broncos21Chiefs28Broncos24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 27/44 | 270 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +12.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Derrick Gore | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mecole Hardman | 8 | 11 | 103 | 0 | 26% | +4.0 |
| Byron Pringle | 5 | 8 | 56 | 0 | 19% | +3.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L'Jarius Sneed | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Thornhill | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 12/24 | 162 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2.8 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1/1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_18_KC_DEN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -11.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 52 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Darrel Williams | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 5 | 34 | 1 | 12% | +5.6 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 10% | +1.8 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 7% | +2.8 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 14% | −0.7 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7% | +1.4 |
| Derrick Gore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.8 |
| Josh Gordon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −1.8 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Anthony Hitchens | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarran Reed | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Willie Gay | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Melvin Ingram | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hughes | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 12 | 110 | 9.2 | 1 | −6.8 |
| Javonte Williams | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Drew Lock | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 2 | +5.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Patrick | 6 | 10 | 95 | 0 | 42% | +6.7 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 21% | −0.6 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 8% | −0.4 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +0.2 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 13% | −1.1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | +0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Ojemudia | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Caden Sterns | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Fuller | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonas Griffith | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Baron Browning | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Purcell | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Callahan | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shamar Stephen | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Reed | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
