2021 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 8, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Denver Broncos

KC -11.5 no coverO 44.5 ✓Chiefs closed -11.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 28–24. Biggest swing: Q4 7:57, KC +56% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 7:57KC — DEN DEN ball · 2nd & 2DEN 68%

(7:57) 25-M.Gordon right guard to KC 13 for -4 yards (24-M.Ingram). FUMBLES (24-M.Ingram), touched at KC 13, RECOVERED by KC-54-N.Bolton at KC 14. 54-N.Bolton for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 7:57KC +56% win prob(7:57) 25-M.Gordon right guard to KC 13 for -4 yards (24-M.Ingram). FUMBLES (24-M.Ingram), touched at KC 13, RECOVERED by KC-54-N.Bolton at KC 14. 54-N.Bolton for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 9:11DEN +15% win prob(9:11) 25-M.Gordon left guard for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 2:14DEN +12% win prob(2:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-T.Hill to DEN 46 for 2 yards (23-K.Fuller).
Q2 · 7:57DEN +9% win prob(7:57) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock scrambles up the middle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Broncos
Offensive plays	72	54
Total yards	396 (edge)	364
Yards per play	5.5	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.24 (edge)	0.04
Success rate	51% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	69%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.33 (edge)	0.32
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.31
Third downs	8/13 (edge)	7/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

27/44, 270 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.1 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Drew LockQB

12/24, 162 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

2.8 expected points added · -8.6% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

12 att, 110 yds, 1 TD

-6.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

9 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Mecole HardmanWR

8/11 for 103 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Tim PatrickWR

6/10 for 95 yds, 0 TD

42% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	5	6	1:03	Punt
2	KC	KC 9	18	86	7:49	Touchdown
3	DEN	DEN 33	14	52	5:42	Touchdown
4	KC	KC 25	8	2	2:30	Punt
5	DEN	DEN 20	9	80	5:07	Touchdown
6	KC	KC 25	14	54	5:31	Turnover on downs
7	DEN	DEN 25	8	16	1:55	Punt
8	KC	KC 15	4	30	0:23	End of half
9	KC	KC 25	11	75	4:17	Touchdown
10	DEN	DEN 25	7	75	1:41	Touchdown
11	KC	KC 25	10	32	3:24	Punt
12	DEN	DEN 20	4	6	1:21	Punt
13	KC	KC 43	10	40	4:33	Turnover on downs
14	DEN	DEN 25	11	67	7:02	Defensive touchdown
15	DEN	DEN 25	9	62	3:05	Turnover on downs
16	KC	KC 25	10	75	4:37	End of game

0 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 86 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	27/44	270	2	0	1	12.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	9	54	6.0	-0.9
Derrick Gore	7	30	4.3	0.1
Jerick McKinnon	5	24	4.8	-0.1
Darrel Williams	7	17	2.4	0.0
Mecole Hardman	1	10	10.0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mecole Hardman	8	11	103	0	26%	4.0
Byron Pringle	5	8	56	0	19%	3.2
Travis Kelce	4	5	34	1	12%	5.6
Darrel Williams	3	4	30	0	10%	1.8
Jerick McKinnon	3	3	26	1	7%	2.8
Demarcus Robinson	3	6	19	0	14%	-0.7
Tyreek Hill	1	3	2	0	7%	1.4
Derrick Gore	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8
Josh Gordon	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
L'Jarius Sneed	3	3	0
Charvarius Ward	1	4	0
Juan Thornhill	3	2	0
Nick Bolton	3	2	0
Anthony Hitchens	2	2	0
Tyrann Mathieu	3	0	0
Jarran Reed	1	2	1
Willie Gay	2	1	1
Melvin Ingram	1	1	0
Mike Hughes	2	0	1

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Lock	12/24	162	0	0	1	2.8
Courtland Sutton	1/1	16	0	0	0	1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Melvin Gordon	12	110	9.2	1	-6.8
Javonte Williams	12	46	3.8	0	-0.6
Drew Lock	4	35	8.8	2	5.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tim Patrick	6	10	95	42%	6.7
Jerry Jeudy	2	5	30	21%	-0.6
Javonte Williams	2	2	18	8%	-0.4
Noah Fant	1	2	16	8%	0.2
Courtland Sutton	1	3	13	13%	-1.1
Melvin Gordon	1	2	6	8%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Michael Ojemudia	8	3	2
Caden Sterns	6	3	0
Kyle Fuller	4	2	0
Jonas Griffith	1	5	0
Bradley Chubb	2	3	0
Baron Browning	3	2	1
Mike Purcell	1	3	0
Bryce Callahan	3	1	0
Shamar Stephen	1	2	1
Malik Reed	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -11.5
Closing total: 44.5
KC moneyline: -600
DEN moneyline: +435

Chiefs closed -11.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 52 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 41°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: KC 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Vic Fangio

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.