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Los Angeles Chargers 32 at Las Vegas Raiders 35. Final.
Chargers -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 18
Las Vegas Raiders 35, Chargers 32 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 6:02, 4th and 9, on Mike Williams — 58.8 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 6:02 · 4th and 9
Mike Williams
Chargers
(6:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 81-M.Williams ran ob at LV 27 for 47 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
O 48 ✓
Dome
Chargers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Las Vegas Raiders 35–32 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 6:02, Chargers +58.8% win probability on one snap.
58.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mike WilliamsChargersQ4 0:05(:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
31.6pts
Daniel CarlsonChargersOT 7:14(7:14) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
40.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Raiders won this one — 8 of 17 on third down, against Chargers at 4 of 18 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Raiders won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Chargers at 6 chunk plays.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at -0.13 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Chargers210 of 225 plays carry both curves
(6:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 81-M.Williams ran ob at LV 27 for 47 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
Swing −58.8 for RaidersExpected points −5.43 for RaidersModel and market agree here.play 209
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 6:02LV +59% win prob(6:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 81-M.Williams ran ob at LV 27 for 47 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
Overtime · 7:14LAC +40% win prob(7:14) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
4th · 0:05LV +32% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 4:35LAC +30% win prob(4:35) 6-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.
Overtime · 0:02LV +25% win prob(:02) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Overtime · 0:38LV +21% win prob(:38) 28-J.Jacobs left guard to LAC 29 for 10 yards (93-J.Jones).
Overtime · 9:52
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Daniel Carlson's 47-yard field goal with 0:02 left in overtime put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:54Daniel Carlson·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+30–3
Overtime7:14Daniel Carlson·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+329–32
Overtime4:35Dustin Hopkins·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap M.Overton+332–32
Overtime0:02Daniel Carlson·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.SiegLead never changed again+332–35
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryRaiders
Chargers4–3Raiders
442Total yards347
5.0Yards per play4.7
42%Success rate38%
22%Third-down rate47%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays9
26First downs20
3Sacks taken3
1Turnovers0
The read
Chargers ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Raiders, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Chargers: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.07Raiders: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Chargers: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.13Raiders: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Chargers: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.01Raiders: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 89 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Raiders’s 74 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Raiders 5.
NoteChargers outgained Raiders 442-347 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's early-down pass rate turned over: 41.7% in week 17 against 71.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
63 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +3.2 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Raiders13.0%
inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 69 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLV's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -6.7 pts, 8.9 points below their season mean of 2.1 pts and 1.4 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
70Rashawn SlaterT · Every snap100%93 snaps
74Storm NortonT · Every snap100%93 snaps
71Matt FeilerG · Every snap100%93 snaps
72Michael SchofieldG · Every snap100%93 snaps
63Corey LinsleyC · Every snap100%93 snaps
10Justin HerbertQB · Every snap100%93 snaps
13Keenan AllenWR · Full-time88%82 snaps
30Austin EkelerRB · Full-time84%78 snaps
81Mike WilliamsWR · Heavy rotation72%67 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Heavy rotation70%65 snaps
5Josh PalmerWR · Heavy rotation60%56 snaps
15Jalen GuytonWR · Heavy rotation54%50 snaps
82Stephen AndersonTE · Rotational27%25 snaps
88Tre' McKittyTE · Situational24%22 snaps
22Justin JacksonRB · Situational18%17 snaps
7Andre RobertsWR · Situational3%3 snaps
Inactive · 5
Joe GazianoDEGabe NabersFBSenio KelemeteGEaston StickQBLarry RountreeRB
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Chase DanielQBJoshua KelleyRB
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
75Brandon ParkerT · Every snap100%80 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%80 snaps
70Alex LeatherwoodT · Every snap100%80 snaps
68Andre JamesC · Every snap100%80 snaps
76John SimpsonG · Full-time94%75 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Full-time94%75 snaps
7Zay JonesWR · Full-time89%71 snaps
83Darren WallerTE · Heavy rotation78%62 snaps
28Josh JacobsRB · Heavy rotation71%57 snaps
89Bryan EdwardsWR · Heavy rotation70%56 snaps
13Hunter RenfrowWR · Heavy rotation64%51 snaps
87Foster MoreauTE · Heavy rotation61%49 snaps
30Jalen RichardRB · Rotational30%24 snaps
85Derek CarrierTE · Situational15%12 snaps
1DeSean JacksonWR · Situational10%8 snaps
8Marcus MariotaQB · Situational9%7 snaps
67Lester CottonG · Situational6%5 snaps
17Tyron JohnsonWR · Situational5%4 snaps
41Sutton SmithFB · Situational5%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Amik RobertsonCBCarl NassibDEJordan SimmonsGPatrick OnwuasorMLBDamion SquareNTJackson BartonTNick BowersTE
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
J.Herbert pass+59% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 81-M.Williams ran ob at LV 27 for 47 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
OT 6:02 · Chargers · 4th & 9 at LAC 26 · gained 47 · +5.43 EP · +58.8% win probability
208 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 225 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 225 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 90 yards from the LAC 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
225 of 225 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
225
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
41%
Yards
788
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR72+0.1185%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1160%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.2053%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.2533%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.4867%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
225 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
225 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Chargers0Raiders3
Field goal11 plays, from the Raiders 33 to the Chargers 3
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Chargers 31
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 38
Chargers0Raiders9
Chargers0Raiders10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Chargers 12
The period ended11 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 47
2nd quarter52 plays
Chargers6Raiders10
Chargers7Raiders10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Raiders 14
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Chargers 43
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Chargers13Raiders10
Chargers14Raiders10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Raiders 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFour defenders
Chargers14Raiders16
Chargers14Raiders17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 1
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 27
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
No good7 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Raiders 22
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 41 to the Raiders 43
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Chargers 9 to the Chargers 18
Chargers14Raiders20
Field goal4 plays, from the Chargers 16 to the Chargers 12
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 32
The period ended15 plays, from the Raiders 17 to the Chargers 3
4th quarter63 plays
Chargers14Raiders26
Touchdown3 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 31
Chargers14Raiders29
Field goal8 plays, from the Raiders 36 to the Chargers 34
Chargers20Raiders29
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Raiders 12
Chargers22Raiders29
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Chargers28Raiders29
Chargers29Raiders29
Touchdown25 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Raiders 12
Overtime30 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chargers29Raiders32
Field goal8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Chargers32Raiders32
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Raiders 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Chargers32Raiders35
Field goal11 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
