2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium

Los Angeles Chargers

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

LAC -3.5 upsetO 48 ✓DomeChargers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Las Vegas Raiders 35–32 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 6:02, LV +59% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 6:02LAC — LV LAC ball · 4th & 9LV 74%

(6:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 81-M.Williams ran ob at LV 27 for 47 yards (25-T.Moehrig).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 6:02LV +59% win prob(6:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 81-M.Williams ran ob at LV 27 for 47 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
OT · 7:14LAC +40% win prob(7:14) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q4 · 0:05LV +32% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT · 4:35LAC +30% win prob(4:35) 6-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Raiders
Offensive plays	89	74
Total yards	442 (edge)	347
Yards per play	5.0 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	0.12 (edge)	-0.07
Success rate	42% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	78%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	-0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	0.01 (edge)
Third downs	4/18	8/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	20
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Chargers outgained Raiders 442–347 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

34/64, 383 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

15.9 expected points added · -12.7% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

20/36, 186 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-5.2 expected points added · -6.0% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

26 att, 132 yds, 1 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

16 att, 64 yds, 1 TD

-4.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

9/17 for 119 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Jared CookTE

4/7 for 80 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 33	10	57	4:10	Turnover on downs
2	LAC	LAC 23	5	8	1:39	Punt
3	LV	LV 24	6	12	2:27	Punt
4	LV	LAC 23	7	23	3:30	Touchdown
5	LAC	LAC 25	16	80	5:32	Touchdown
6	LV	LV 28	7	9	3:48	Punt
7	LAC	LAC 10	14	90	7:02	Touchdown
8	LV	LV 25	9	42	1:15	Touchdown
9	LAC	LAC 25	5	2	0:27	Punt
10	LV	LV 36	1	0	0:10	End of half
11	LAC	LAC 29	7	38	3:18	Turnover on downs
12	LV	LV 41	4	2	1:00	Punt
13	LAC	LAC 9	4	7	1:50	Turnover on downs
14	LV	LAC 16	4	4	0:49	Turnover on downs
15	LAC	LAC 25	5	0	1:32	Punt
16	LV	LV 17	14	75	7:17	Touchdown
17	LAC	LAC 25	4	5	1:19	Interception
18	LV	LV 36	8	30	4:32	Turnover on downs
19	LAC	LAC 25	16	77	3:55	Touchdown
20	LV	LV 25	5	-6	2:22	Punt
21	LAC	LAC 17	20	78	2:06	Touchdown
22	LV	LV 25	8	53	2:51	Turnover on downs
23	LAC	LAC 25	9	57	2:39	Turnover on downs
24	LV	LV 25	9	46	4:30	Turnover on downs

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	34/64	383	3	1	3	15.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	16	64	4.0	1	-4.6
Justin Jackson	3	20	6.7	0	0.5
Justin Herbert	2	1	0.5	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Williams	9	17	119	1	27%	9.2
Jared Cook	4	7	80	0	11%	4.2
Jalen Guyton	6	9	52	0	14%	3.1
Keenan Allen	6	8	52	0	13%	3.6
Josh Palmer	4	9	45	1	14%	2.8
Austin Ekeler	5	12	35	1	19%	1.3
Justin Jackson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.9
Tre' McKitty	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nasir Adderley	7	3	0.0	0
Derwin James	3	5	0.0	0
Uchenna Nwosu	5	1	1.0	1
Kyzir White	1	5	0.0	0
Drue Tranquill	3	2	0.0	0
Michael Davis	3	1	0.0	2
Alohi Gilman	2	2	0.0	0
Kenneth Murray	1	3	0.0	0
Asante Samuel	3	0	0.0	1
Justin Jackson	2	0	0.0	0

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	20/36	186	2	0	3	-5.2
Marcus Mariota	1/1	4	0	0	0	-0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	26	132	5.1	1	0.4
Jalen Richard	2	24	12.0	0	1.0
Marcus Mariota	4	23	5.8	0	-0.0
Derek Carr	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0
Hunter Renfrow	1	-4	-4.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Bryan Edwards	4	5	63	0	15%	2.3
Foster Moreau	2	2	50	0	6%	4.5
Zay Jones	5	8	27	0	24%	-0.9
Darren Waller	2	9	22	0	27%	-4.8
Hunter Renfrow	4	5	13	2	15%	0.5
Josh Jacobs	2	2	12	0	6%	0.3
Jalen Richard	2	2	3	0	6%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Denzel Perryman	7	1	0.0	0	0
Nate Hobbs	5	2	0.0	0	1
Brandon Facyson	6	0	0.0	0	2
Maxx Crosby	5	1	2.0	0	3
Divine Deablo	3	3	0.0	0	0
K.J. Wright	4	1	0.0	0	0
Desmond Trufant	4	0	0.0	0	4
Trevon Moehrig	3	1	0.0	0	0
Dallin Leavitt	1	2	0.0	0	0
Casey Hayward	3	0	0.0	1	3

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -3.5
Closing total: 48
LAC moneyline: -180
LV moneyline: +155

Chargers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 67 — over by 19.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: LAC 7 days · LV 7 days
Coaches: Brandon Staley vs Rich Bisaccia

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.