2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium

New England Patriots

Miami DolphinsWinner

NE -6 upsetO 41 ✓Patriots closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Miami Dolphins 33–24. Biggest swing: Q1 6:16, NE +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 6:16NE — MIA NE ball · 3rd & 1NE 61%

(6:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at NE 37. 25-X.Howard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 6:16NE +22% win prob(6:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at NE 37. 25-X.Howard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:53MIA +15% win prob(2:53) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 81-D.Smythe to MIA 40 for 15 yards (2-J.Mills).
Q3 · 2:29NE +14% win prob(2:29) 10-M.Jones FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 23, RECOVERED by MIA-15-J.Phillips at MIA 24.
Q4 · 3:02MIA +13% win prob(3:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short left to 15-N.Agholor. PENALTY on MIA-24-By.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at MIA 12 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Dolphins
Offensive plays	59	66
Total yards	379 (edge)	298
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	4.5
Expected points added / play	-0.06	0.01 (edge)
Success rate	58% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	56%	41%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18	0.14 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.07
Third downs	5/10 (edge)	7/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	19	19
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Patriots outgained Dolphins 379–298 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

20/30, 261 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.5 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

15/22, 109 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.8 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Duke JohnsonRB

25 att, 117 yds, 1 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Brandon BoldenRB

7 att, 46 yds, 1 TD

3.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Hunter HenryTE

5/6 for 86 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Jakobi MeyersWR

4/8 for 70 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -11.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 23	15	72	7:26	Touchdown
2	NE	NE 25	4	9	1:27	Defensive touchdown
3	NE	NE 25	7	13	3:00	Punt
4	MIA	MIA 11	15	62	6:58	Turnover on downs
5	NE	NE 26	9	74	3:33	Touchdown
6	MIA	MIA 25	5	0	2:10	Punt
7	NE	NE 42	5	13	1:03	Punt
8	MIA	MIA 20	4	3	1:01	Punt
9	NE	NE 19	6	31	2:20	Punt
10	MIA	MIA 7	6	35	1:02	End of half
11	NE	NE 25	14	43	6:33	Turnover on downs
12	MIA	MIA 25	10	47	3:56	Touchdown
13	NE	NE 25	7	53	2:06	Fumble
14	MIA	MIA 24	9	37	6:30	Turnover on downs
15	NE	NE 25	13	82	4:23	Touchdown
16	MIA	MIA 21	5	7	1:43	Punt
17	NE	NE 24	7	65	1:56	Touchdown
18	MIA	MIA 25	9	33	2:50	Punt
19	NE	NE 2	1	-2	0:03	Defensive touchdown

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 82 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	20/30	261	1	1	2	1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Brandon Bolden	7	46	6.6	1	3.1
Damien Harris	11	37	3.4	1	1.2
Rhamondre Stevenson	4	34	8.5	0	2.2
Kendrick Bourne	1	8	8.0	0	0.6
Jonnu Smith	1	5	5.0	0	0.6
Mac Jones	3	4	1.3	0	-6.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Hunter Henry	5	6	86	0	20%	4.6
Jakobi Meyers	4	8	70	0	27%	-11.0
Damien Harris	4	4	36	0	13%	2.7
Kendrick Bourne	3	4	24	0	13%	-0.8
Nelson Agholor	1	3	23	0	10%	-0.2
Brandon Bolden	2	2	20	1	7%	3.6
Rhamondre Stevenson	1	2	2	0	7%	-0.7
N'Keal Harry	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ja'Whaun Bentley	5	8	0.0	0
Adrian Phillips	6	1	0.0	1
Jamie Collins	3	3	0.0	0
Kyle Van Noy	2	3	1.0	0
Davon Godchaux	1	4	0.0	0
Christian Barmore	3	1	0.0	0
Matt Judon	3	0	0.0	0
Jalen Mills	2	1	0.0	0
Deatrich Wise	2	1	0.0	0
J.C. Jackson	1	2	0.0	1

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	15/22	109	1	0	1	-2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Duke Johnson	25	117	4.7	1	-1.6
Phillip Lindsay	11	40	3.6	0	-1.0
Tua Tagovailoa	5	38	7.6	0	3.4
Michael Palardy	1	1	1.0	0	3.5
Myles Gaskin	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Durham Smythe	2	2	32	0	10%	2.0
Jaylen Waddle	5	7	27	1	33%	1.2
Mike Gesicki	2	3	22	0	14%	0.1
DeVante Parker	2	4	12	0	19%	-2.5
Myles Gaskin	3	3	11	0	14%	-0.5
Duke Johnson	1	1	5	0	5%	0.0
Mack Hollins	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Brandon Jones	4	4	0.0	0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	5	2	1.0	0	0
Jerome Baker	3	3	0.0	0	1
Elandon Roberts	2	3	0.0	0	0
Jevon Holland	2	3	0.0	0	0
Christian Wilkins	3	1	1.0	0	1
Duke Riley	2	1	0.0	0	0
Byron Jones	1	1	0.0	0	0
Xavien Howard	2	0	0.0	1	1
Brennan Scarlett	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -6
Closing total: 41
NE moneyline: -250
MIA moneyline: +200

Patriots closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 57 — over by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 75°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: NE 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Brian Flores

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.