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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:24 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Patriots166 of 181 plays carry both curves
(6:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at NE 37. 25-X.Howard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +22.3 for DolphinsExpected points +8.11 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 30 points higher than the market did.play 21
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:16NE +22% win prob(6:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at NE 37. 25-X.Howard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:53MIA +15% win prob(2:53) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 81-D.Smythe to MIA 40 for 15 yards (2-J.Mills).
3rd · 2:29NE +14% win prob(2:29) 10-M.Jones FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 23, RECOVERED by MIA-15-J.Phillips at MIA 24.
4th · 3:02MIA +13% win prob(3:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short left to 15-N.Agholor. PENALTY on MIA-24-By.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at MIA 12 - No Play.
4th · 2:57MIA +10% win prob(2:57) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 37-D.Harris right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:56MIA +10% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles right end to NE 47 for 11 yards (33-J.Williams, 90-C.Barmore). NE-90-C.Barmore was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jaylen Waddle's 7-yard touchdown catch with 7:39 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:39Jaylen Waddle·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+70–7
Patriots ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Patriots: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.01Dolphins: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.18Patriots: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.14Dolphins: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Patriots: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.07Dolphins: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 59 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 66 at 41%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Dolphins 3.
NotePatriots outgained Dolphins 379-298 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's early-down pass rate, 30.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 1.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 43.2% in week 16.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.3-swing turn from week 17.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's sack or hit rate, 3.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 6.7% in week 4.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
low through week 18Against their seasonOver Expected
MIA's pass rate over expected, −9.9 pts, is past their previous low of −7.3 pts in week 12 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.2 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Dolphins9.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.6 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 30.0%, 28.1 points below their season mean of 58.1% and 2.3 times their own 12.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Jones pass−15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(6:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at NE 37. 25-X.Howard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 6:16 · Patriots · 3rd & 1 at NE 34 · gained nothing · -8.11 EP · −14.8% win probability
164 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 77 yards from the MIA 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
46%
Yards
677
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR40-0.0033%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0466%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR15+0.0840%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15-0.4133%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.3140%
Dolphins0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR4——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins0 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Patriots0Dolphins6
Patriots0Dolphins7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Patriots 7
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Patriots0Dolphins13
Touchdown4 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 34
Patriots0Dolphins14
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 44
The period ended8 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Patriots 42
2nd quarter53 plays
Patriots0Dolphins17
Field goal9 plays, from the Patriots 38 to the Patriots 12
Patriots6Dolphins17
Patriots7Dolphins17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Dolphins 15
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 31
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 42 to the Dolphins 45
Punt5 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 19 to midfield
The period ended11 plays, from the Dolphins 7 to the Patriots 44
3rd quarter40 plays
Patriots10Dolphins17
Field goal16 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Dolphins 17
Patriots10Dolphins23
Patriots10Dolphins24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Patriots 1
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Dolphins 22
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Dolphins 33
4th quarter50 plays
Patriots10Dolphins27
Field goal7 plays, from the Dolphins 41 to the Patriots 30
Patriots16Dolphins27
Patriots17Dolphins27
Touchdown13 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Dolphins 13
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the Dolphins 28
Patriots23Dolphins27
Patriots24Dolphins27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Dolphins 1
Punt13 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Patriots 42
Patriots24Dolphins33
Touchdown1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -6
Closing total
41
Patriots moneyline
-250
Dolphins moneyline
+200
Patriots closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41; the game landed 57 — over by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 73°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the east; 0.03 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Patriots 7 days · Dolphins 7 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Brian Flores
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 4:42MIA +8% win prob(4:42) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete deep left to 86-M.Hollins. PENALTY on NE-2-J.Mills, Defensive Pass Interference, 24 yards, enforced at NE 25 - No Play.
4th · 1:48MIA +7% win prob(1:48) 28-D.Johnson left tackle to NE 44 for 3 yards (8-J.Bentley, 98-Ca. Davis).
