2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Atlanta Falcons

NO -4.5 ✓O 40 ✓DomeSaints closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 10.

New Orleans Saints 30–20. Biggest swing: Q2 9:08, ATL +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 9:08NO — ATL NO ball · 3rd & 9NO 64%

(9:08) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass short middle to 10-T.Smith to ATL 38 for 34 yards (21-D.Harmon; 55-S.Means).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 9:08ATL +12% win prob(9:08) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass short middle to 10-T.Smith to ATL 38 for 34 yards (21-D.Harmon; 55-S.Means).
Q2 · 13:33NO +7% win prob(13:33) 19-B.Maher 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
Q2 · 5:41NO +7% win prob(5:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 14-R.Gage INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo at NO 29. 29-P.Adebo pushed ob at NO 46 for 17 yards (28-M.Davis).
Q2 · 1:03NO +7% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 28-M.Davis to ATL 19 for -6 yards (27-M.Jenkins). FUMBLES (27-M.Jenkins), RECOVERED by NO-5-K.Alexander at ATL 19. 5-K.Alexander to ATL 11 for 8 yards (70-J.Matthews). FUMBLES (70-J.Matthews), ball out of bounds at ATL 9.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Falcons
Offensive plays	70	48
Total yards	370 (edge)	257
Yards per play	5.3	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.14 (edge)	-0.29
Success rate	47% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	39%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.45 (edge)	-0.41
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05	0.14 (edge)
Third downs	8/16 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.29.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

20/33, 216 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-4.4 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Taysom HillTE

7/9, 107 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.6 expected points added · +15.5% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

30 att, 146 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Mike DavisRB

6 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Russell GageWR

9/13 for 126 yds, 1 TD

42% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Tre'Quan SmithWR

5/7 for 76 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 16	12	84	6:31	Touchdown
2	ATL	ATL 25	11	35	5:14	Turnover on downs
3	NO	NO 25	11	59	4:46	Turnover on downs
4	ATL	ATL 24	7	40	2:58	Turnover on downs
5	NO	NO 27	11	62	4:44	Touchdown
6	ATL	ATL 36	2	0	0:18	Interception
7	NO	NO 46	9	26	4:26	Turnover on downs
8	ATL	ATL 25	2	-6	0:11	Fumble
9	NO	ATL 11	4	11	0:50	Touchdown
10	ATL	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
11	ATL	ATL 34	5	7	1:28	Punt
12	NO	NO 14	7	31	3:28	Turnover on downs
13	ATL	NO 45	7	37	3:34	Turnover on downs
14	NO	NO 8	4	13	2:32	Punt
15	ATL	ATL 44	5	56	1:09	Touchdown
16	NO	NO 25	14	61	6:54	Turnover on downs
17	ATL	ATL 25	2	3	0:13	Fumble
18	NO	ATL 29	7	14	3:06	Turnover on downs
19	ATL	ATL 24	5	0	1:40	Punt
20	NO	NO 28	4	9	1:39	Punt
21	ATL	ATL 15	14	85	3:56	Touchdown
22	NO	NO 7	2	0	0:21	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 85 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taysom Hill	7/9	107	1	0	0	8.6
Trevor Siemian	9/15	71	2	0	1	3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	30	146	4.9	2.0
Tony Jones	7	22	3.1	-2.5
Taysom Hill	5	18	3.6	0.5
Deonte Harty	1	9	9.0	0.9
Adam Prentice	1	1	1.0	-0.1
Trevor Siemian	2	-1	-0.5	-3.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tre'Quan Smith	5	7	76	1	30%	7.5
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	1	1	26	0	4%	1.6
Deonte Harty	3	4	24	0	17%	0.7
Adam Trautman	1	1	18	1	4%	2.3
Alvin Kamara	2	2	16	0	9%	0.1
Nick Vannett	1	1	10	0	4%	1.3
Juwan Johnson	1	2	5	1	9%	2.1
Adam Prentice	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.6
Ty Montgomery	1	2	1	0	9%	1.6
Tony Jones	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6
Marquez Callaway	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Paulson Adebo	3	2	0.0	1	2
David Onyemata	0	4	0.5	0	0
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	2	1	0.0	0	1
Malcolm Roach	1	2	0.0	0	0
Demario Davis	3	0	0.0	0	0
Kwon Alexander	2	1	0.0	0	0
Marcus Williams	1	1	0.0	0	0
Marcus Davenport	1	1	1.5	0	0
Kaden Elliss	1	1	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	2	0	0.0	0	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	20/33	216	1	1	3	-4.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mike Davis	6	30	5.0	0	-0.5
Qadree Ollison	1	19	19.0	1	2.4
Cordarrelle Patterson	4	11	2.8	0	-0.4
Matt Ryan	1	2	2.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Russell Gage	9	13	126	1	42%	7.0
Olamide Zaccheaus	3	3	47	0	10%	3.2
Hayden Hurst	1	1	33	0	3%	2.6
Kyle Pitts	2	5	8	0	16%	-3.0
Keith Smith	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.1
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.5
Qadree Ollison	0	1	0	0	3%	-3.1
Tajae Sharpe	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.5
Christian Blake	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
Mike Davis	3	3	-2	0	10%	-12.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	7	6	0
Shawn Williams	5	5	0
A.J. Terrell	4	2	1
Deion Jones	3	2	0
Brandon Copeland	3	2	0
Mykal Walker	2	3	0
Fabian Moreau	3	1	0
Steven Means	1	3	0
Ta'Quon Graham	3	1	0
Adetokunbo Ogundeji	2	2	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -4.5
Closing total: 40
NO moneyline: -213
ATL moneyline: +186

Saints closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 40; the game landed 50 — over by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: NO 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Arthur Smith

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.