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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 18
It turned at Q2 9:08, 3rd and 9, on Tre'Quan Smith — 11.8 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New Orleans Saints 30–20. Biggest swing: Q2 9:08, Saints +11.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:08 · 3rd and 9
Tre'Quan Smith
Saints
(9:08) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass short middle to 10-T.Smith to ATL 38 for 34 yards (21-D.Harmon; 55-S.Means).
11.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.45 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.41 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 3 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.29 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(9:08) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass short middle to 10-T.Smith to ATL 38 for 34 yards (21-D.Harmon; 55-S.Means).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Adam Trautman's 18-yard touchdown catch with 8:36 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Adam Trautman18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Taysom HillLead never changed again+77–010 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryFalcons
Saints ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 70 snaps at a 39% dropback rate against Falcons’s 48 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Saints 7, Falcons 4.
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.29.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
ATL's early-down pass rate, 74.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 2.1 points clear of the next team along.
35 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
NO's pass rate over expected, −16.0 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-16.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.7 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 70 snaps
Falcons2.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their -1.2 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 48 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 83%
Tendencies room →Saints32.1%leaned — ran early · −18.3 vs their 50.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.58× that swing) · 53 early downs
Falcons74.3%leaned — passed early · +17.9 vs their 56.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+1.74× that swing) · 35 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27% to 100%
Fourth Down room →Saints25.0%right on their number · −7.8 vs their 32.8%, and they swing ±23.2 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Falcons50.0%inside their normal wobble · +12.8 vs their 37.2%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 34%
Tendencies room →Saints21.6%inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Falcons3.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −5.8 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±3.9 week to week (−1.47× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
ATL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 74.3%, 17.9 points above their season mean of 56.4% and 1.7 times their own 10.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · ATL
20/33, 216 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-4.4 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected
Passing · NO
7/9, 107 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
8.6 expected points added · +15.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Adam Trautman banked 5.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell GageWR · Alpha Receiver | 27.6 | +4.4 | 90% | 86% | 42% | 60% | 9/13, 126 yd, 1 TD |
| Tre'Quan SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.6 | +2.7 | 72% | 74% | 30% | 29% | 5/7, 76 yd, 1 TD |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.2 | −6.2 | 78% | 67% | 9% | 0% | 30 car, 146 yd · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Matt RyanQB · Starter QB | 10.8 | −4.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/33, 216 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Trevor SiemianQB · Starter QB | 10.7 | −2.3 | 64% | — | 0% | — | 9/15, 71 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, -1 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 10.1 | +0.2 | 36% | — | 0% | — | 7/9, 107 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 18 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.8 | +5.8 | 69% | 56% | 4% | 7% | 1/1, 18 yd, 1 TD |
| Qadree OllisonRB | 7.9 | +4.8 | 32% | 35% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 19 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +4.0 | 78% | 76% | 10% | 11% | 3/3, 47 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | +1.4 | 15% | 26% | 9% | 10% | 1/2, 5 yd, 1 TD |
| Deonte HartyWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | −2.3 | 29% | 33% | 17% | 27% | 1 car, 9 yd · 3/4, 24 yd |
| Hayden HurstTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | +2.7 | 24% | 24% | 3% | 10% | 1/1, 33 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +1.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −4.7 | 74% | 81% | 16% | 11% | 2/5, 8 yd |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB | 2.2 | −0.8 | 36% | 32% | 3% | 0% | 4 car, 11 yd · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Tony JonesRB | 2.2 | −3.1 | 19% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 7 car, 22 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Nick VannettTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.6 | 28% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Mike DavisRB · Committee Back | 1.8 | −6.4 | 36% | 32% | 10% | 0% | 6 car, 30 yd · 3/3, -2 yd |
| Keith SmithRB | 1.3 | −0.1 | 18% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 1.3 | −0.6 | 35% | 37% | 4% | 0% | 1 car, 1 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Ty MontgomeryWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −3.1 | 42% | 41% | 9% | 13% | 1/2, 1 yd |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tajae SharpeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.2 | 76% | 76% | 6% | 9% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Christian BlakeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Marquez CallawayWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.7 | 64% | 63% | 4% | 8% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:08) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass short middle to 10-T.Smith to ATL 38 for 34 yards (21-D.Harmon; 55-S.Means).
Q2 9:08 · Saints · 3rd & 9 at NO 28 · gained 34 · +3.49 EP · +11.8% win probability
152 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 85 yards from the ATL 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Saints6
Falcons0Saints7Falcons0Saints7Falcons3Saints7Falcons6Saints13Falcons6Saints14Falcons6Saints17Falcons6Saints23Falcons6Saints24Falcons6Saints24Falcons12Saints24Falcons13Saints27Falcons13Saints30Falcons13Saints30Falcons19Saints30Falcons20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 7/9 | 107 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8.6 |
| Trevor Siemian | 9/15 | 71 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 30 | 146 | 4.9 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Tony Jones | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre'Quan Smith | 5 | 7 | 76 | 1 | 30% | +7.5 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulson Adebo | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| David Onyemata | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Chauncey Gardner-Johnson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 20/33 | 216 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −4.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_18_NO_ATL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 40; the game landed 50 — over by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Trevor Siemian | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −3.3 |
| 4% |
| +1.6 |
| Deonte Harty | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 17% | +0.7 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 4% | +2.3 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 9% | +0.1 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9% | +2.1 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9% | +1.6 |
| Tony Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Marquez Callaway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.0 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Malcolm Roach | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwon Alexander | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Davenport | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaden Elliss | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Jenkins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Qadree Ollison | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Gage | 9 | 13 | 126 | 1 | 42% | +7.0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 10% | +3.2 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 | 3% | +2.6 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 16% | −3.0 |
| Keith Smith | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Qadree Ollison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −3.1 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.5 |
| Christian Blake | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Mike Davis | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 10% | −12.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 7 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shawn Williams | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Deion Jones | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Copeland | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mykal Walker | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fabian Moreau | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Means | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ta'Quon Graham | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adetokunbo Ogundeji | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
