For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:24 AM ET · 16 to play
New Orleans Saints 30 at Atlanta Falcons 20. Final.
Saints -4.5 ✓O 40 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 18
New Orleans Saints 30, Falcons 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 9:08, 3rd and 9, on Tre'Quan Smith — 11.8 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:08 · 3rd and 9
Tre'Quan Smith
Saints
(9:08) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass short middle to 10-T.Smith to ATL 38 for 34 yards (21-D.Harmon; 55-S.Means).
Dome
Saints closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 10.
New Orleans Saints 30–20. Biggest swing: Q2 9:08, Saints +11.8% win probability on one snap.
11.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brett MaherFalconsQ2 13:33(13:33) 19-B.Maher 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
7.4pts
Paulson AdeboSaintsQ2 5:41(5:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 14-R.Gage INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo at NO 29. 29-P.Adebo pushed ob at NO 46 for 17 yards (28-M.Davis).
7.2pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.45 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.41 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 3 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.29 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Saints154 of 160 plays carry both curves
(9:08) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass short middle to 10-T.Smith to ATL 38 for 34 yards (21-D.Harmon; 55-S.Means).
Swing −11.8 for FalconsExpected points −3.49 for FalconsThe model had Falcons 16 points higher than the market did.play 49
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 9:08ATL +12% win prob(9:08) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass short middle to 10-T.Smith to ATL 38 for 34 yards (21-D.Harmon; 55-S.Means).
2nd · 13:33NO +7% win prob(13:33) 19-B.Maher 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
2nd · 5:41NO +7% win prob(5:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 14-R.Gage INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo at NO 29. 29-P.Adebo pushed ob at NO 46 for 17 yards (28-M.Davis).
2nd · 1:03NO +7% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 28-M.Davis to ATL 19 for -6 yards (27-M.Jenkins). FUMBLES (27-M.Jenkins), RECOVERED by NO-5-K.Alexander at ATL 19. 5-K.Alexander to ATL 11 for 8 yards (70-J.Matthews). FUMBLES (70-J.Matthews), ball out of bounds at ATL 9.
2nd · 10:36ATL +6% win prob(10:36) 7-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.
1st · 6:53ATL +5% win prob(6:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 14-R.Gage to NO 35 for 26 yards (29-P.Adebo).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Adam Trautman's 18-yard touchdown catch with 8:36 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
4th10:59Brett Maher·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+327–13
4th7:41Brett Maher·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+330–13
4th0:27Russell Gage·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+730–20
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryFalcons
Saints8–1Falcons
370Total yards257
5.3Yards per play5.4
47%Success rate33%
50%Third-down rate30%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays5
19First downs12
1Sacks taken3
0Turnovers3
The read
Saints ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Saints: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.29Falcons: −0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.45Saints: +0.45 expected points added per play
−0.41Falcons: −0.41 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Saints: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.14Falcons: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 70 snaps at a 39% dropback rate against Falcons’s 48 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Saints 7, Falcons 4.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.29.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's early-down pass rate, 74.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 2.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 70.0% in week 2.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 17.
35 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
NO's pass rate over expected, −16.0 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Falcons3.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.8 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±3.9 week to week (−1.47× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 74.3%, 17.9 points above their season mean of 56.4% and 1.7 times their own 10.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Hill pass+12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:08) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass short middle to 10-T.Smith to ATL 38 for 34 yards (21-D.Harmon; 55-S.Means).
Q2 9:08 · Saints · 3rd & 9 at NO 28 · gained 34 · +3.49 EP · +11.8% win probability
152 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 85 yards from the ATL 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
42%
Yards
626
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.0276%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.2446%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.5560%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR7+0.1214%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.770%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.6183%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.090%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.4860%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.3240%
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR4——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Saints6Falcons0
Saints7Falcons0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Falcons 18
Saints7Falcons3
Field goal13 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 23
The period ended8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Falcons 27
2nd quarter44 plays
No good4 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Falcons 13
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Saints7Falcons6
Field goal7 plays, from the Falcons 24 to the Saints 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Saints13Falcons6
Saints14Falcons6
Touchdown12 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Falcons 13
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Saints17Falcons6
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 46 to the Falcons 18
Fumble lost2 plays
Saints23Falcons6
Saints24Falcons6
Touchdown4 plays, from the Falcons 11 to the Falcons 5
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 34 to the Falcons 41
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Saints 14 to the Saints 45
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Saints 45 to the Saints 8
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 8 to the Saints 16
Saints24Falcons12
Saints24Falcons13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 44 to the Saints 19
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Falcons 39
4th quarter46 plays
Saints27Falcons13
Field goal9 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Falcons 4
Fumble lost2 plays
Saints30Falcons13
Field goal7 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Falcons 15
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Saints 37
Saints30Falcons19
Saints30Falcons20
Touchdown15 plays, from the Falcons 15 to the Saints 1
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
