2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · New Era Field

New York Jets

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -16 ✓U 43 ✓19 mph windBills closed -16 and covered, winning by 17.

Buffalo Bills 27–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 5:38, NYJ +7% win probability on one snap. Played in 19 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 5:38NYJ — BUF BUF ball · 4th & 4BUF 90%

(5:38) Fumbled snap. 3-M.Haack to BUF 9 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at BUF 11. 3-M.Haack punts 7 yards to BUF 29. 9-J.White to BUF 27 for 2 yards (9-A.Smith; 46-J.Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-53-T.Dodson, Ineligible

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 5:38NYJ +7% win prob(5:38) Fumbled snap. 3-M.Haack to BUF 9 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at BUF 11. 3-M.Haack punts 7 yards to BUF 29. 9-J.White to BUF 27 for 2 yards (9-A.Smith; 46-J.Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-53-T.Dodson, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 27.
Q2 · 3:59BUF +7% win prob(3:59) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 88-K.Cole for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 2:44BUF +6% win prob(2:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 88-D.Knox to NYJ 42 for 28 yards (30-M.Carter) [57-C.Mosley].
Q3 · 4:00BUF +6% win prob(4:00) 15-E.Pineiro 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Bills
Offensive plays	46	76
Total yards	53	427 (edge)
Yards per play	1.2	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.52	0.03 (edge)
Success rate	15%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.57	0.11 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.42	-0.13 (edge)
Third downs	1/14	8/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	4	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	9	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.52.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

24/45, 239 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-1.7 expected points added · -8.9% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

7/20, 87 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-16.9 expected points added · -31.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

19 att, 88 yds, 1 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

5 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

5.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

9/14 for 81 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Keelan ColeWR

3/3 for 54 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 25	9	75	4:18	Touchdown
2	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	9	1:42	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 7	13	60	6:29	Turnover on downs
4	NYJ	NYJ 25	6	20	2:15	Punt
5	BUF	NYJ 35	4	6	1:50	Turnover on downs
6	NYJ	NYJ 30	6	-6	3:19	Punt
7	BUF	BUF 30	4	9	2:03	Punt
8	NYJ	NYJ 19	4	1	0:59	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 18	4	6	1:43	Punt
10	NYJ	BUF 45	5	50	1:31	Touchdown
11	BUF	BUF 25	5	9	0:48	Punt
12	NYJ	NYJ 44	4	-5	1:24	Punt
13	BUF	BUF 16	10	71	1:39	Turnover on downs
14	NYJ	NYJ 26	5	9	2:30	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 28	7	23	1:30	Punt
16	NYJ	NYJ 20	4	2	1:08	Punt
17	BUF	BUF 21	4	7	1:21	Punt
18	NYJ	NYJ 32	4	-8	2:06	Punt
19	BUF	BUF 16	4	6	0:59	Punt
20	NYJ	BUF 22	4	-9	1:31	Turnover on downs
21	BUF	BUF 25	9	45	3:25	Punt
22	NYJ	NYJ 2	7	5	2:57	Punt
23	BUF	BUF 49	8	51	4:12	Touchdown
24	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	-5	0:57	Punt
25	BUF	NYJ 48	8	46	3:31	Touchdown
26	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	-10	0:41	Punt
27	BUF	BUF 44	5	13	3:12	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	7/20	87	1	0	8	-16.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Zach Wilson	2	24	12.0	0.6
Michael Carter	9	19	2.1	-3.1
Tevin Coleman	5	6	1.2	-2.3
Ty Johnson	1	-1	-1.0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keelan Cole	3	3	54	1	16%	6.2
Jamison Crowder	1	1	16	0	5%	1.0
Tarik Black	1	2	10	0	11%	1.1
Tyler Kroft	1	3	5	0	16%	-1.3
Jeff Smith	1	3	2	0	16%	-2.8
Michael Carter	0	3	0	0	16%	-2.0
Tevin Coleman	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.6
Denzel Mims	0	2	0	0	11%	-1.2
Ty Johnson	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
C.J. Mosley	7	2	0
Jason Pinnock	4	2	0
Elijah Riley	2	3	0
Brandin Echols	3	1	1
Nathan Shepherd	1	2	0
Kyle Phillips	1	2	0
Quincy Williams	1	2	1
Quinnen Williams	3	0	1
Ashtyn Davis	1	2	0
Ronald Blair	1	2	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	24/45	239	2	0	0	-1.7
Mitchell Trubisky	1/1	15	0	0	0	1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devin Singletary	19	88	4.6	1	-0.3
Josh Allen	5	63	12.6	0	5.8
Isaiah McKenzie	1	10	10.0	0	-0.6
Zack Moss	5	8	1.6	0	-2.4
Mitchell Trubisky	3	-3	-1.0	0	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	9	14	81	1	31%	4.1
Dawson Knox	3	5	49	0	11%	2.2
Gabe Davis	3	14	39	0	31%	-10.3
Cole Beasley	4	5	31	0	11%	-1.4
Devin Singletary	2	2	24	1	4%	4.1
Jake Kumerow	1	1	15	0	2%	1.4
Isaiah McKenzie	1	1	9	0	2%	1.8
Zack Moss	2	2	6	0	4%	-1.1
Reggie Gilliam	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	3	1	0.0	1
Gregory Rousseau	4	0	0.0	1
Jordan Poyer	3	1	2.0	0
Taron Johnson	2	2	0.0	0
Levi Wallace	2	1	0.0	0
Ed Oliver	1	2	1.5	0
Mario Addison	3	0	2.0	0
Matt Milano	2	0	1.0	0
Reggie Gilliam	1	0	0.0	0
A.J. Epenesa	1	0	1.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -16
Closing total: 43
NYJ moneyline: +750
BUF moneyline: -1250

Bills closed -16 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 43; the game landed 37 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 36°F, wind 19 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: NYJ 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Robert Saleh vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 19 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.