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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:25 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 18
It turned at Q3 5:38, 4th and 4 — 7.4 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 5:38 · 4th and 4
Unnamed on the sheet
Jets
(5:38) Fumbled snap. 3-M.Haack to BUF 9 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at BUF 11. 3-M.Haack punts 7 yards to BUF 29. 9-J.White to BUF 27 for 2 yards (9-A.Smith; 46-J.Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-53-T.Dodson, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 27.
Buffalo Bills 27–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 5:38, Jets +7.4% win probability on one snap. Played in 20.8 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
7.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 15% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 8 of 17 on third down, against Jets at 1 of 14 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bills won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.52 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 15.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(5:38) Fumbled snap. 3-M.Haack to BUF 9 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at BUF 11. 3-M.Haack punts 7 yards to BUF 29. 9-J.White to BUF 27 for 2 yards (9-A.Smith; 46-J.Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-53-T.Dodson, Ineligible
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Stefon Diggs's 10-yard touchdown catch with 10:50 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Stefon Diggs10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Josh AllenLead never changed again+70–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 46 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Bills’s 76 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Jets 1, Bills 4.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.52.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's sack or hit rate, 35.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 5.8 points clear of the next team along.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Jets-1.9 ptsright on their number · −2.2 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 46 snaps
Bills2.3 ptsright on their number · −2.1 vs their 4.4 pts, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 76 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 91%
Tendencies room →Jets51.6%inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 59.1%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 31 early downs
Bills62.1%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 60.2%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 58 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 102%
Fourth Down room →Jets33.3%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 33.8%, and they swing ±26.8 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bills20.0%inside their normal wobble · −17.5 vs their 37.5%, and they swing ±18.7 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 38%
Tendencies room →Jets9.8%inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Bills35.5%off script — got home · +20.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+2.82× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
BUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 35.5%, 20.0 points above their season mean of 15.5% and 2.8 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
24/45, 239 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-1.7 expected points added · -8.9% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
7/20, 87 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-16.9 expected points added · -31.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Keelan Cole banked 9.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 25.2 | +1.7 | 76% | 69% | 4% | 0% | 19 car, 88 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 24 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 23.9 | −6.9 | 94% | — | 0% | — | 24/45, 239 yd, 2 TD · 5 car, 63 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.1 | −0.3 | 82% | 86% | 31% | 28% | 9/14, 81 yd, 1 TD |
| Keelan ColeWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.4 | +9.9 | 61% | 55% | 16% | 16% | 3/3, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| Zach WilsonQB · Starter QB | 9.9 | +2.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 7/20, 87 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 24 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.3 | −2.2 | 91% | 82% | 11% | 9% | 3/5, 49 yd |
| Cole BeasleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +0.2 | 51% | 61% | 11% | 6% | 4/5, 31 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 6.9 | −22.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Zack MossRB | 3.4 | −1.9 | 22% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 5 car, 8 yd · 2/2, 6 yd |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +0.7 | 27% | 24% | 2% | 1% | 1 car, 10 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Jamison CrowderWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jake KumerowWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +0.6 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 1/1, 15 yd |
| Tarik BlackWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −0.6 | 41% | 42% | 11% | 13% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| Michael CarterRB · Committee Back | 1.9 | −5.9 | 52% | 45% | 16% | 0% | 9 car, 19 yd · 0/3, 0 yd |
| Tyler KroftTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −2.7 | 96% | 87% | 16% | 7% | 1/3, 5 yd |
| Jeff SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −2.5 | 74% | 77% | 16% | 1% | 1/3, 2 yd |
| Tevin ColemanRB | 0.6 | −4.3 | 22% | 13% | 5% | 15% | 5 car, 6 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB | 0.3 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 0.0 | −1.6 | 22% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Taiwan JonesRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Denzel MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.7 | 76% | 71% | 11% | 21% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | -0.1 | −1.8 | 33% | 39% | 5% | 9% | 1 car, -1 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:59) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 88-K.Cole for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 3:59 · Jets · 4th & 5 at BUF 40 · gained 40 · +6.39 EP · +15.3% win probability
163 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 75 yards from the BUF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jets0
Bills6Jets0Bills7Jets0Bills10Jets6Bills10Jets7Bills10Jets7Bills13Jets10Bills13Jets10Bills19Jets10Bills20Jets10Bills26Jets10Bills27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 7/20 | 87 | 1 | 0 | 8 | −16.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Michael Carter | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelan Cole | 3 | 3 | 54 | 1 | 16% | +6.2 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 5% | +1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Mosley | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pinnock | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Riley | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandin Echols |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 24/45 | 239 | 2 | 0 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1/1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.4 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_18_NYJ_BUF
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -16 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 43; the game landed 37 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Wind at 20.8 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Ty Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Tarik Black | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 11% | +1.1 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 16% | −1.3 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16% | −2.8 |
| Michael Carter | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16% | −2.0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Denzel Mims | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11% | −1.2 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.2 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Phillips | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quinnen Williams | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronald Blair | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 1 | −0.3 |
| Josh Allen | 5 | 63 | 12.6 | 0 | +5.8 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Zack Moss | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 9 | 14 | 81 | 1 | 31% | +4.1 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 11% | +2.2 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 14 | 39 | 0 | 31% | −10.3 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 11% | −1.4 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 4% | +4.1 |
| Jake Kumerow | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 2% | +1.4 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2% | +1.8 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremaine Edmunds | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Poyer | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Oliver | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Addison | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
