2021 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 9, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

Baltimore Ravens

BAL -3 upsetU 41 ✓Ravens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 2:28, BAL +35% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 2:28PIT — BAL PIT ball · 4th & 8BAL 73%

(2:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 14-R.McCloud to BAL 31 for 10 yards (31-T.Jefferson; 49-C.Board).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 2:28BAL +35% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 14-R.McCloud to BAL 31 for 10 yards (31-T.Jefferson; 49-C.Board).
OT · 6:31BAL +30% win prob(6:31) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.
OT · 2:13BAL +27% win prob(2:13) 22-N.Harris left end pushed ob at BAL 16 for 15 yards (98-B.Williams).
OT · 3:28BAL +20% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at BAL 43 for 11 yards (26-G.Stone).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Ravens
Offensive plays	72	71
Total yards	318	381 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.06 (edge)	-0.24
Success rate	38%	38% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06 (edge)	-0.35
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	-0.07 (edge)
Third downs	6/17 (edge)	3/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	19
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Ravens outgained Steelers 381–318 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

30/44, 244 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.9 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Tyler HuntleyQB

16/31, 141 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-14.7 expected points added · -12.6% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Latavius MurrayRB

16 att, 150 yds, 1 TD

6.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Tyler HuntleyQB

12 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

8/15 for 85 yds, 0 TD

47% of team targets · -8.4 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Pat FreiermuthTE

6/9 for 53 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 38	5	6	2:17	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 20	5	26	2:46	Fumble
3	PIT	BAL 39	7	34	3:51	Turnover on downs
4	BAL	BAL 31	5	15	2:10	Interception
5	PIT	PIT 34	4	11	2:22	Interception
6	BAL	BAL 25	5	30	2:20	Turnover on downs
7	PIT	PIT 45	4	1	1:53	Punt
8	BAL	BAL 20	4	3	0:55	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 29	6	29	2:40	Punt
10	BAL	BAL 16	8	25	3:12	Punt
11	PIT	PIT 19	4	2	1:05	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 30	5	27	1:54	Punt
13	PIT	PIT 7	4	0	0:49	Punt
14	BAL	PIT 40	8	31	1:35	Turnover on downs
15	PIT	PIT 26	2	0	0:11	End of half
16	BAL	BAL 32	7	68	2:28	Touchdown
17	PIT	PIT 28	9	50	4:51	Turnover on downs
18	BAL	BAL 34	5	8	2:07	Punt
19	PIT	PIT 35	4	-6	1:28	Punt
20	BAL	BAL 25	8	64	4:13	Interception
21	PIT	PIT 20	9	45	4:58	Punt
22	BAL	BAL 14	4	9	1:48	Punt
23	PIT	50	11	60	5:13	Touchdown
24	BAL	BAL 32	8	40	1:41	Turnover on downs
25	PIT	PIT 25	6	19	0:35	Punt
26	BAL	BAL 18	5	12	0:31	Punt
27	PIT	PIT 31	1	0	0:07	Turnover on downs
28	BAL	BAL 24	9	23	3:36	Punt
29	PIT	PIT 17	15	67	4:28	Turnover on downs

0 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 68 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	30/44	244	1	1	1	2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chase Claypool	3	33	11.0	2.9
Najee Harris	11	28	2.5	-3.7
Benny Snell	12	22	1.8	-6.1
Kalen Ballage	1	0	0.0	-0.6
Ben Roethlisberger	3	-4	-1.3	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Pat Freiermuth	6	9	53	0	20%	3.7
Diontae Johnson	7	10	51	0	23%	-0.1
Zach Gentry	4	5	39	0	11%	1.4
Chase Claypool	5	7	37	1	16%	2.0
Ray-Ray McCloud	4	9	37	0	20%	-2.1
Najee Harris	4	4	27	0	9%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Chris Wormley	3	4	1.0	0	1
Minkah Fitzpatrick	5	1	0.0	0	1
T.J. Watt	3	2	1.0	0	1
Cameron Sutton	5	0	0.0	1	1
Robert Spillane	4	1	0.0	0	0
Marcus Allen	1	3	0.0	0	0
Devin Bush	2	2	0.0	0	0
Alex Highsmith	3	1	0.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	3	1	1.0	0	0
Joe Schobert	4	0	0.0	0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyler Huntley	16/31	141	0	2	3	-14.7
Sam Koch	0/1	0	0	0	0	-2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Latavius Murray	16	150	9.4	1	6.3
Tyler Huntley	12	72	6.0	0	-2.6
Devonta Freeman	5	21	4.2	0	-1.6
Ty'Son Williams	1	4	4.0	0	-0.2
Devin Duvernay	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4
Mark Andrews	1	0	0.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Mark Andrews	8	15	85	47%	-8.4
Marquise Brown	3	8	27	25%	-2.5
Rashod Bateman	2	4	22	13%	1.1
Devonta Freeman	2	2	6	6%	-0.6
Josh Oliver	1	1	1	3%	-0.6
Sammy Watkins	0	1	0	3%	-0.7
Tylan Wallace	0	1	0	3%	-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Chuck Clark	4	5	1
Josh Bynes	5	2	0
Brandon Williams	3	3	0
Brandon Stephens	3	3	1
Tyus Bowser	4	1	0
Chris Board	2	2	0
Chris Westry	4	0	0
Patrick Queen	2	2	0
Calais Campbell	3	1	0
Jimmy Smith	3	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -3
Closing total: 41
PIT moneyline: +135
BAL moneyline: -155

Ravens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 29 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 36°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: PIT 6 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.