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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:23 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Steelers185 of 200 plays carry both curves
(2:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 14-R.McCloud to BAL 31 for 10 yards (31-T.Jefferson; 49-C.Board).
Swing −34.9 for RavensExpected points −2.40 for RavensModel and market agree here.play 193
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 2:28BAL +35% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 14-R.McCloud to BAL 31 for 10 yards (31-T.Jefferson; 49-C.Board).
Overtime · 6:31BAL +30% win prob(6:31) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.
Overtime · 2:13BAL +27% win prob(2:13) 22-N.Harris left end pushed ob at BAL 16 for 15 yards (98-B.Williams).
Overtime · 3:28BAL +20% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at BAL 43 for 11 yards (26-G.Stone).
Overtime · 2:18PIT +20% win prob(2:18) 22-N.Harris right guard to BAL 31 for no gain (93-C.Campbell).
4th · 0:44PIT +18% win prob(:44) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Overtime · 2:32
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Boswell's 36-yard field goal with 2:00 left in overtime put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:08Chris Boswell·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+33–0
2nd0:14Justin Tucker·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.Moore+33–3
3rd7:45Chris Boswell·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+36–10
4th2:58Chase Claypool·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+713–10
4th1:17Justin Tucker·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.Moore+313–13
Overtime2:00Chris Boswell·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.KuntzLead never changed again+316–13
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryRavens
Steelers4–4Ravens
318Total yards381
4.4Yards per play5.4
38%Success rate38%
35%Third-down rate21%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays9
19First downs19
1Sacks taken3
1Turnovers3
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Steelers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Steelers: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.24Ravens: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Steelers: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.35Ravens: −0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.27Steelers: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.07Ravens: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 72 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Ravens’s 71 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Ravens 3.
NoteRavens outgained Steelers 381-318 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +0.9 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Ravens4.4%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.7 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.4%, 9.7 points below their season mean of 14.1% and 1.3 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Every snap100%76 snaps
60J.C. HassenauerC · Every snap100%76 snaps
71Joe HaegT · Every snap100%76 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Every snap100%76 snaps
77John LeglueT · Every snap100%76 snaps
51Trai TurnerG · Every snap100%76 snaps
11Chase ClaypoolWR · Full-time91%69 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Full-time86%65 snaps
14Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Heavy rotation66%50 snaps
88Pat FreiermuthTE · Heavy rotation66%50 snaps
81Zach GentryTE · Heavy rotation58%44 snaps
22Najee HarrisRB · Heavy rotation53%40 snaps
24Benny SnellRB · Rotational38%29 snaps
87Kevin RaderTE · Situational14%11 snaps
44Derek WattFB · Situational11%8 snaps
29Kalen BallageRB · Situational9%7 snaps
15Cody WhiteWR · Situational9%7 snaps
Inactive · 6
Carlos DavisDTTegray ScalesLBCorliss WaitmanPDwayne HaskinsQBAnthony McFarlandRBDan MooreT
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Kendrick GreenCMason RudolphQB
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
70Kevin ZeitlerG · Every snap100%71 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%71 snaps
77Bradley BozemanC · Every snap100%71 snaps
66Ben ClevelandG · Every snap100%71 snaps
2Tyler HuntleyQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Full-time93%66 snaps
12Rashod BatemanWR · Full-time87%62 snaps
65Patrick MekariG · Full-time85%60 snaps
5Marquise BrownWR · Full-time82%58 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Heavy rotation55%39 snaps
85Eric TomlinsonTE · Heavy rotation52%37 snaps
33Devonta FreemanRB · Rotational38%27 snaps
14Sammy WatkinsWR · Rotational30%21 snaps
84Josh OliverTE · Rotational27%19 snaps
13Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational25%18 snaps
62David SharpeT · Situational15%11 snaps
16Tylan WallaceWR · Situational7%5 snaps
34Ty'Son WilliamsRB · Situational3%2 snaps
63Trystan ColonC · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Anthony AverettCBBen PowersGIsaiah MackNTOdafe OwehOLBLamar JacksonQBTony PoljanTEJames ProcheWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
B.Roethlisberger pass+35% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 14-R.McCloud to BAL 31 for 10 yards (31-T.Jefferson; 49-C.Board).
OT 2:28 · Steelers · 4th & 8 at BAL 41 · gained 10 · +2.40 EP · +34.9% win probability
183 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 200 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 200 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 68 yards from the BAL 32 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
200 of 200 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
200
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
37%
Yards
695
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.3065%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.2558%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.1448%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR14-0.1321%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.7686%
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.3120%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
200 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
200 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 38 to the Steelers 44
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 46
Steelers3Ravens0
Field goal8 plays, from the Ravens 39 to the Ravens 5
Intercepted6 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Ravens 43
Intercepted4 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Steelers 45
The period ended4 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 47
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Steelers 47 to the Steelers 45
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 45 to the Steelers 46
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 23
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Ravens 42
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Ravens 41
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Steelers 21
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Steelers 39
Punt4 plays
Steelers3Ravens3
Field goal13 plays, from the Steelers 40 to the Steelers 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Steelers3Ravens9
Steelers3Ravens10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Steelers 46
Steelers6Ravens10
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Ravens 21
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Ravens 42
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Steelers 38
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Steelers 15
4th quarter52 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Ravens 42
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 14 to the Ravens 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Steelers12Ravens10
Steelers13Ravens10
Touchdown14 plays, from midfield to the Ravens 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Steelers13Ravens13
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Steelers 28
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 44
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Ravens 30
The period ended2 plays
Overtime29 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 24 to the Ravens 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Steelers16Ravens13
Field goal19 plays, from the Steelers 17 to the Ravens 16
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -3
Closing total
41
Steelers moneyline
+135
Ravens moneyline
-155
Ravens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41; the game landed 29 — under by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 41°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the south; 0.16 in of precipitation; dense drizzle.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Steelers 6 days · Ravens 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs John Harbaugh
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
PIT +17% win prob
(2:32) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short middle to 18-D.Johnson.
Overtime · 5:18BAL +17% win prob(5:18) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth pushed ob at PIT 45 for 14 yards (26-G.Stone) [90-P.McPhee]. BAL-45-J.Ferguson was injured during the play.
